One of the biggest issues in fantasy footy these days is the angst that the AFL has caused to fantasy coaches with its scheduling, by having a round 1 season opener on a Thursday, bare minutes after the full round 1 teams are announced, causing a massive overload on the servers of fantasy competitions as every man and his dog rejigs his squad based on the selections made by the real clubs. Thus it is vitally important to avoid the 160 minutes of maelstrom prior to the 2009 season by guessing in advance what round 1 teams will be.
My projections here are rather conservative, so don’t be hugely alarmed if your favourite players is not there. These guesstimated teams are based on everyone being healthy and firing in each team’s squad (beyond already-announced long-term injuries), which is almost never the case at every club so the fringe candidates will most likely get a look in. I’ll also list the “iffy” players whose spots will be under threat in the preseason, as well as the list of players lining up to take their spots.
Richmond
FB: Jordan McMahon, Will Thursfield, Joel Bowden
HB: Chris Newman, Luke McGuane, Kelvin Moore
C: Richard Tambling, Shane Tuck, Trent Cotchin
HF: Mitch Morton, Matthew Richardson, Brett Deledio
FF: Cleve Hughes, Jack Riewoldt, Nathan G. Brown
Fol: Troy Simmonds, Kane Johnson, Nathan Foley
Int: Adam Pattison, Jay Schulz, Adam Thomson, Mark Coughlan
Iffy: McMahon, Schulz, Coughlan, Hughes
Waiting: Jake King, Shane Edwards, Daniel Jackson, Matt White
Carlton
FB: Shaun Grigg, Michael Jamison, Bret Thornton
HB: Andrew Carrazzo, Jarrad Waite, Heath Scotland
C: Bryce Gibbs, Chris Judd, Kade Simpson
HF: Matthew Kreuzer, Brad Fisher, Jake Edwards
FF: Eddie Betts, Brendan Fevola, Chris Yarran
Fol: Cameron Cloke, Nick Stevens, Marc Murphy
Int: Robert Warnock, Andrew Walker, Chris A. Johnson, Adam Bentick
Iffy: Bentick, Fisher, Edwards, Grigg
Waiting: Jordan Bannister, Setanta O’hAilpin, Adam Hartlett, Richard Hadley
This is by far the most important matchup for round 1, seeing as it will be the only game for which we have set 22s on the Wednesday before the fun and games begin. Yarran is a lock not only in the Carlton team, but for every serious fantasy team out there once he’s inevitably named for the Blues. Tigers coach Terry Wallace is in a contract year with his job on the line, so he’s going to take a very hardline approach to selection at the beginning of the season in the hopes of getting off to a flier, which means no Tyrone Vickery in my opinion. I think Thomson is going to be in the Tiger team for round 1 to justify trading for him (coaches are stubborn like that). I’m not picking Coughlan with any confidence whatsoever, as there are a host of kids waiting to snag that spot and he’s no guarantee to be fit. Carlton’s lineup looks more settled to me, with their fringe players not exciting me a whole lot. They will also want to make a good first impression with a strong side, though I expect them to get beaten.
Hawthorn
FB: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Grant Birchall
HB: Luke Hodge, Campbell Brown, Thomas Murphy
C: Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Clinton Young
HF: Cyril Rioli, Lance Franklin, Stuart Dew
FF: Mark Williams, Jarryd Roughead, Michael Osborne
Fol: Robert Campbell, Brad Sewell, Chance Bateman
Int: Brent Renouf, Rick Ladson, Travis Tuck, Cameron Stokes
Iffy: Murphy, Tuck, Stokes, Renouf
Waiting: Mitch Thorp, Ben McGlynn, Josh P. Kennedy, Simon Taylor
Geelong
FB: Tom Harley, Matthew Scarlett, Harry Taylor
HB: Darren Milburn, Andrew Mackie, Corey Enright
C: Cameron Ling, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel
HF: Steve Johnson, Cameron Mooney, Paul Chapman
FF: Ryan Gamble, Tom Hawkins, Mathew Stokes
Fol: Brad Ottens, Gary Ablett jnr, Joel Corey
Int: Mark Blake, Shannon Byrnes, David Wojcinski, Max Rooke
Iffy: Milburn, Byrnes, Rooke, Hawkins
Waiting: Mitch Brown, Nathan Djerrkura, Josh Hunt, Tom Lonergan
I’m assuming here that Xavier Ellis is either injured or underdone for round 1, and that the Cats won’t risk both Hawkins and Lonergan in the same side, with Hawkins representing the future. I’ve speculated a lot on this blog about the long-term replacement for Trent Croad, but despite the hopes of many fantasy coaches for a spot for Thorp, I suspect it may mean that Gilham and Murphy won’t have to fight over one spot any more, and will both play. Both clubs will be putting their strongest sides on the park, as this game will mean a fair bit, so no room for draftees. The only possible spot I could foresee is if Milburn drops off in the preseason (or another Cat defender gets injured) where there’s a small chance that Brown could be blooded early in the manner of Taylor. I mention McGlynn and Kennedy as fringe players with Stokes and Tuck in their sights but anyone from Jarryd Morton to Beau Dowler or Brendan Whitecross could bob up. Watch those pre-season training reports.
Collingwood
FB: Heath Shaw, Simon Prestigiacomo, Tyson Goldsack
HB: Nick Maxwell, Nathan J. Brown, Harry O’Brien
C: Alan Didak, Scott Pendlebury, Marty Clarke
HF: Leon Davis, Travis Cloke, Dale Thomas
FF: Sean Rusling, Anthony Rocca, Paul Medhurst
Fol: Josh Fraser, Shane O’Bree, Dane Swan
Int: Cameron Wood, Sharrod Wellingham, Tarkyn Lockyer, Anthony Corrie
Iffy: Prestigiacomo, Rocca, Rusling, Lockyer
Waiting: Shannon Cox, John Anthony, Ben Reid, Steele Sidebottom
Adelaide
FB: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Greg Gallman
HB: Brad Symes, Nathan Bock, Andrew McLeod
C: Richard Douglas, Scott Thompson, Chris Knights
HF: Bernie Vince, Scott Stevens, Simon Goodwin
FF: Jason Porplyzia, Kurt Tippett, Tyson Edwards
Fol: Ivan Maric, Brent Reilly, Nathan Van Berlo
Int: Jonathon Griffin, Robert Shirley, Patrick Dangerfield, Michael Doughty
Iffy: Gallman, Doughty, Dangerfield, Tippett
Waiting: Aaron Kite, Trent Hentschel, David Mackay, Nick Gill
Of all coaches, Mick Malthouse is perhaps the most reliable in blooding youngsters in big games, so there’s every chance he’ll roll out the red carpet for Sidebottom’s debut in this rematch of last year’s final. Dayne Beams isn’t out of the question either, perhaps in place of O’Bree if MM really wants to shake things up. Prestigiacomo’s time may prove to be over, but I think he suits the Magpies’ structure for this game at least to combat the talls that Neil Craig will no doubt throw at them, so unless Anthony shows a lot in the NAB I think Presti is in for round 1 at least. I’m pretty bullish on Reid getting a gig in place of either Rocca or Rusling depending on injury, but he’s behind them if both are fit. As for Adelaide, I predict that Hentschel won’t quite be match fit for round 1, which will be a reprieve for Tippett who may also hold out Gill due to his versatility in the ruck. I’m tipping Gallman to beat Kite in their battle, while Mackay would be unlucky to miss out in favour of older heads if none of the likes of Doughty, Edwards or McLeod succumb to injury. Dangerfield is more of an emotional pick: Craig will want to showcase him, I feel.
Brisbane
FB: Josh Drummond, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Cheynee Stiller, Joel Macdonald, Ashley McGrath
C: Tim Notting, Jed Adcock, Travis Johnstone
HF: Luke Power, Jonathan Brown, Jared Brennan
FF: Sam Sheldon, Daniel Bradshaw, Rhan Hooper
Fol: Matthew Leuenberger, Simon Black, Michael Rischitelli
Int: Jamie Charman, Bradd Dalziell, Troy Selwood, Daniel Rich
Iffy: Hooper, Sheldon, Stiller, Patfull
Waiting: Lachie Henderson, Albert Proud, Tom Collier, Jason Roe
West Coast
FB: Brett Jones, Darren Glass, Mark Nicoski
HB: Beau Waters, Adam Hunter, Adam Selwood
C: Andrew Embley, Daniel Kerr, Chris Masten
HF: Chad Fletcher, Ashley Hansen, David Wirrpanda
FF: Ben McKinley, Quinten Lynch, Mark LeCras
Fol: Dean Cox, Matt Priddis, Tyson Stenglein
Int: Mark Seaby, Brad Ebert, Shannon Hurn, Brent Staker
Iffy: Hansen, Hunter, Stenglein, Fletcher
Waiting: Josh J. Kennedy, Mitchell Brown, Jamie McNamara, Matt Rosa
Silly old Hooper getting suspended for a month isn’t going to help his chances in his positional battle in the newly open Lions forward line, which means he’s going to have Henderson breathing down his neck, if he isn’t already on the outer. The backline still looks like a work in progress to me, with seemingly inevitable injury likely to take the decisions out of Michael Voss’ hands and giving a chance to Collier. Justin Sherman has dropped off the waiting list, in my opinion, based on his poor 2008. The Eagles have traditionally gone very old in early games since their flag year, with a lot of fantasy coaches disappointed in early rounds this year with John Worsfold’s faith in his premiership players. The tickets have just about run out for players like Stenglein and Fletcher, though, and the sooner we see the future of the franchise in Kennedy and Brown instead of tired old stagers like Hansen and Hunter, the better.
St Kilda
FB: Matt Maguire, Max Hudghton, Sam Gilbert
HB: Raphael Clarke, Sam Fisher, Brendon Goddard
C: Jason Gram, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna
HF: Jason Blake, Nick Riewoldt, Farren Ray
FF: Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke, Adam Schneider
Fol: Steven King, Nick Dal Santo, Luke Ball
Int: Michael Gardiner, Robert Eddy, Clinton Jones, Steven Baker
Iffy: Ray, Eddy, Jones, Baker
Waiting: David Armitage, Sean Dempster, Jarryn Geary, Andrew McQualter
Sydney
FB: Lewis Roberts-Thomson, Craig Bolton, Paul Bevan
HB: Tadhg Kennelly, Ted Richards, Martin Mattner
C: Amon Buchanan, Brett Kirk, Rhyce Shaw
HF: Michael O’Loughlin, Ryan O’Keefe, Patrick Veszpremi
FF: Adam Goodes, Barry Hall, Heath Grundy
Fol: Darren Jolly, Jude Bolton, Jarrad McVeigh
Int: Jesse White, Craig Bird, Nick Malceski, Kieren Jack
Iffy: O’Loughlin, Grundy, Shaw, Roberts-Thomson
Waiting: Ed Barlow, Leo Barry, Jarred Moore, Luke Ablett
Funnily enough, this Saints side looks the most settled of any team, perhaps because I don’t rate the depth players in their list at all. Baker is speculative, but I think he’s important to their structure as they don’t have a better tagger – albeit that Jones is maturing in that role. I can’t see much excitement for fantasy purposes out of the Saints’ kids at this stage. On the Swans, I’m taking a big punt with this 22 and predicting that premiership star Barry will be sidelined this year, in the manner that Mathews was this year, to promote youth. Sadly for the Swans, I fear that injuries are going to tear their structure apart this year with a list six months older per player than any other. That means opportunities for roughies like Barlow, Daniel O’Keefe and Brett Meredith sooner rather than later.
Melbourne
FB: Paul Wheatley, Colin Garland, Stefan Martin
HB: Ricky Petterd, Jared Rivers, Matthew Whelan
C: Brad Green, Brock McLean, Matthew Bate
HF: Cameron Bruce, Brad Miller, Aaron Davey
FF: Colin Sylvia, Russell Robertson, Austin Wonaeamirri
Fol: Paul Johnson, Cale Morton, Nathan Jones
Int: Mark Jamar, James McDonald, Simon Buckley, Brent Moloney
Iffy: Buckley, Moloney, McDonald, Petterd
Waiting: Jack Grimes, Clint Bartram, Lynden Dunn, Daniel Bell
North Melbourne
FB: Scott D. Thompson, Michael Firrito, Josh Gibson
HB: Daniel Pratt, Drew Petrie, Daniel Wells
C: Adam Simpson, Daniel Harris, Andrew Swallow
HF: Matt Campbell, Corey Jones, Lindsay Thomas
FF: Scott McMahon, David Hale, Aaron Edwards
Fol: Hamish McIntosh, Brady Rawlings, Brent Harvey
Int: Gavin Urquhart, Sam Power, Ben Ross, Leigh Harding
Iffy: Urquhart, Ross, Harding, Swallow
Waiting: Shannon Watt, Ed Lower, Matt Riggio, Jesse W. Smith
These are two of the harder teams to project, because the Demons are just as likely to throw three or four kids up front to prove their commitment to youth and please the fans eager for change, while North is always an enigma. The Kangaroos’ ability to go tall or small up forward will probably mean that Grimes becomes a matchup play, I fear, meaning that if the Demons don’t think the Roos will go small then the popular Grimes will be wasted in a lot of Fanplanner teams. Petterd is safer, I think, provided his fitness holds up. I’m not solid on whether Buckley will play either, with Bartram and Dunn in particular having strong claims to be picked instead of him. You could probably pick three at random from between McMahon, Urquhart, Power, Lower, Riggio and Harding and they’d have as much chance of playing in round 1 as any other combination. Ross and Swallow should be firmer, though you never can tell under Laidley’s watch.
Port Adelaide
FB: Michael Pettigrew, Alipate Carlile, Jacob Surjan
HB: Peter Burgoyne, Toby Thurstans, Domenic Cassisi
C: Travis Boak, Chad Cornes, Kane Cornes
HF: David Rodan, Justin Westhoff, Danyle Pearce
FF: Daniel Motlop, Warren Tredrea, Brett Ebert
Fol: Dean Brogan, Steven Salopek, Shaun Burgoyne
Int: Brendon Lade, Josh Carr, Nick Salter, Robbie Gray
Iffy: Surjan, Carr, Salter, Gray
Waiting: Marlon Motlop, Tom Logan, Jason Davenport, Matthew Lobbe
Essendon
FB: Andrew Welsh, Dustin Fletcher, Michael Hurley
HB: David Myers, Patrick Ryder, Jay Nash
C: Kyle Reimers, Jobe Watson, Bachar Houli
HF: Leroy Jetta, Adam McPhee, Scott Lucas
FF: Alwyn Davey, Matthew Lloyd, Angus Monfries
Fol: David Hille, Brent Stanton, Mark McVeigh
Int: Jason Laycock, Sam Lonergan, Andrew Lovett, Scott Gumbleton
Iffy: Hurley, Nash, Myers, Gumbleton
Waiting: Tayte Pears, Ricky Dyson, David Zaharakis, Jay Neagle
These two sides have some strong kids coming through, making them potentially very popular among fantasy coaches… if they can guess which way the selection committees are going to go. I’ve got Surjan as a back pocket here but I fully expect Marlon Motlop to challenge for that position in the preseason. Davenport is every chance to debut early for his new club, as coach Mark Williams loves to do with his recycled players. Port’s training sessions are hotbeds of positional power plays at the moment, but the one kid who I don’t expect to see in round 1 is Hamish Hartlett. He’ll continue his SANFL apprenticeship at West Adelaide, recovering from shoulder surgery with a January restart, before he’s unleashed. For Essendon I’m not overly confident on Hurley playing, with Pears a big chance to keep that spot for now, so don’t rely on my guess. Gumby is also highly uncertain to play round 1 despite great early reports from Bomber training sessions, with Neagle just as likely to front up instead. Their best 22 looks a lot better than the crud that Matthew Knights had to pencil in at the end of the 2008 season! Here’s hoping for their sake that injuries don’t dictate selection nearly as much in 2009.
Fremantle
FB: Michael Johnson, Antoni Grover, Marcus Drum
HB: David Mundy, Luke McPharlin, Roger Hayden
C: Garrick Ibbotson, Paul Hasleby, Brett Peake
HF: Dean Solomon, Matthew Pavlich, Des Headland
FF: Chris Mayne, Chris Tarrant, Hayden Ballantyne
Fol: Aaron Sandilands, Rhys Palmer, Ryan Crowley
Int: Kepler Bradley, Byron Schammer, Andrew Foster, Josh Head
Iffy: Drum, Peake, Foster, Bradley
Waiting: Steven Dodd, Scott Thornton, Clayton Hinkley, Daniel Gilmore
Western Bulldogs
FB: Lindsay Gilbee, Brian Lake, Dale Morris
HB: Ryan Hargrave, Tom Williams, Andrejs Everitt
C: Ryan Griffen, Daniel Cross, Nathan Eagleton
HF: Robert Murphy, Mitch Hahn, Daniel Giansiracusa
FF: Shaun Higgins, Brad Johnson, Scott Welsh
Fol: Ben Hudson, Adam Cooney, Matthew Boyd
Int: Will Minson, Jason Akermanis, Dylan Addison, Josh Hill
Iffy: Welsh, Eagleton, Everitt, Hill
Waiting: Jarrad Grant, Callan Ward, Tim Callan, Jarrod Harbrow
I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised, but when I look at the side Freo is likely to pick and the fringe players who miss out, they may have a better team by swapping in the fringe players. Peake in particular has way more games than his form merits, while the battle between Bradley and Gilmore for second ruck will be as interesting as watching two runts fight over the last dog biscuit. Drum should be played, though he may not be for reasons only known to those coloured purple. The only other kink is that if Mark Harvey twigs that the Dogs are a small team, he may try to oversize them by stacking his forward line with Ryan Murphy and Adam Campbell. For the Bulldogs, I struggled at first to find iffy players, but once you look at their structure, they are lacking in certain areas. The big question will be whether Grant is given his hero’s welcome, which should be leaked through the papers before the official announcement if we’re lucky. Eagleton is ageing, while Everitt went backwards a little this year so there could be chances for the two Callans, Ward and Tim. Meanwhile, Harbrow is a nice player but hard to fit into a structure that is looking to go taller, not smaller.
So, who are you looking for as your round 1 debutantes? If the above teams end up being correct, how many of your squad of 30 in the Fanplanner will be playing? Argue the toss with me in the comments below.
Scuzzlebut
December 7, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Great Blog m0nty. How do you know so much every team?
The things that stood out for me were:
– I reckon White will be a regular for Richmnd next year. Terry loves him, and when he gets free in the forward line, he looks awesome. He’s crazy fast (as everyone that watched the GF sprint would know – he was seriously handicapped and still won) and he’s a beautiful kick.
– I would have thought that Beams or Steele would play in round 1. We all know what Steele is capable of, and Beams averaged 24 touches in the championships and looks like a real ruffnut.
– Woosha is a Minnie Laidley. McNamara should have played every week last year. He was listed in East Freo’s best almost every week. But despite his limited opportunities in the seniors, I reckon he did enough to earn a game every week. Maybe a tad expensive for DT though.
– ZZZZZZZZZZZ. Sorry – I fell asleep reading the Saints v Swans teams.
– I have Motlop and Davenport in my fanplanner teams, so I hope they get named.
– And I reckon Hinkley will play round 1. He was their second pick last year (no.24 overall) and averaged 11 kicks, 9 handballs and 4 marks (and kicked 12 goals) in an ordinary team this year, so I reckon he is ready to go in 09.
Dan
December 7, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Fantastic Blog monty. Stumbled across this site recently and what a wealth of information it is. Thanks.
The fanplanner is excellent and I’m already using it to craft my DT and SC sides. Appreciate all the effort that’s gone into creating this.
As for comments on this blog, whilst you’d prefer all 30 to be in the named squads, let’s remember Palmer didn’t debut until round 2.
Having said that, what about Naitanui, I know the story with new rucks, but surely West Coast will blood him early?
Mitch
December 7, 2008 at 2:02 pm
Beau Dowler will play Round 1.
Mitch Thorp is a long way off.
Josh Kennedy is behind Morton.
Mitch
December 7, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Palmer isn’t there?
Fabian
December 7, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Good effort, just have two points in relation to the fremantle team:
1. You forgot Rhys Palmer
2. Hinkley should play 20-22 games this year if not injured
(By the way I also think Suban will play)
m0nty
December 7, 2008 at 6:54 pm
Hmm, I did forget Palmer. And I had Dodd both playing and waiting. Palmer in for Dodd!
m0nty
December 7, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Fabian, who does Hinkley replace in your opinion? Are they finally going to bite the bullet on Peake?
Also, thanks Dan!
tom
December 7, 2008 at 8:26 pm
didn’t think nick lower deserved a spot in the powers 22, let alone in their waiting list monty? i reckon hes definitely in their best 22
m0nty
December 7, 2008 at 8:48 pm
To be honest I haven’t got a great handle on the Port’s fringe players, tom. Could very well be in their best 22.
cdrobert
December 7, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Good Stuff Monty
Being an eagles man, i would replace kennedy with fletch. i think the game is passed him now and i dont think they can have fletch, stinger and wirra in the same team.
i agree with scuzz, j mac should be given more of a chance. j mac for staker.
m0nty
December 7, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Ah, but will Woosha feel the same way? We thought he would go with kids this year and he kept playing the old blokes while they were fit.
Chad
December 8, 2008 at 6:43 am
Monty, i think it is pretty safe to say Troy Chaplin will be in ports backline in round 1 (baring injury).
Nick
December 8, 2008 at 8:20 am
“Ah, but will Woosha feel the same way? We thought he would go with kids this year and he kept playing the old blokes while they were fit.”
I know you can’t be expected to know every team as well as your own, but that’s pretty much the polar opposite to what happened this year.
Debutants:
Davis (R) – 7 games
Ebert – 15 games
Houlihan – 8 games
Masten – 9 games
Notte – 2 games
Selwood – 9 games
Spangher – 7 games
Wilkes – 14 games
Youngsters:
Kennedy (22 games) – 7 games
McKenzie (1 game) – 7 games
McKinley (1 game) – 18 games
McNamara (2 games) – 11 games
Schofield (3 games) – 9 games
Fletcher played 17 games and was dropped 2 or 3 times. He was only recalled when we ran out of numbers. Hansen (not old) played 13 games and spent 4 or 5 weeks in a row at Swan Districts while we played Kennedy at CHF. Stenglein played 22 games, but would’ve been dropped if we’d had more than 26-27 to choose from on average. Wirra and Glass are the only two other “old blokes” and they’re easily best 22.
Nick
December 8, 2008 at 8:28 am
In terms of the best 22, Hunter and Jones are both iffy for R1 following post-season surgery. We have a history of rushing guys back, but after 08 maybe we’ve learnt our lesson. Fletcher won’t play unless he has a good NAB Cup. Hansen is still struggling with injury but he is one of the guys that is selected often when he shouldn’t. I also doubt we’ll carry Seaby as we did pretty well witohut him (Lynch was effective running around the ground)
In: Wilkes, Brown, Butler, Rosa
Out: Hunter, Jones, Fletcher, Seaby
I picked Brown over Kennedy because he provides some cover down back.
Dan
December 8, 2008 at 8:35 am
Good write up monty 🙂
I agree that Nait won’t be there round 1. You are right, Woosh does likes the old timers.
In my team so far only 1 player isn’t named as on field/interchange by your lists.
That player is Mitch Brown… looking at your team lists I can see your point. It will be interesting to watch the pre season.
Reading the training reports on bigfooty and a few news articles makes me think Brown is going to get games early.
Maybe Hansen can watch from the stands 🙂
Anyway, we’ll see.. you are probably right though.
Dan (the usual Dan)
Dan
December 8, 2008 at 8:40 am
@nick
monty said the lists were based on people being fully fit.
So Jones would be on the field if he was fully fit.
I didn’t notice Wilkes missing. I reckon he’ll play also.
Doubt Butler will get a game. He’s always on the fringes.
I think one of Seaby will have to play to give Cox a break. Don’t know if Lynch can do the 2nd ruck job that well.
Dan.
Big Jim
December 8, 2008 at 9:21 am
Great stuff monty – the only “waitings” I reckon worth looking out for too are Taylor Walker for Adelaide if he has a good nab cup, and ditto Nick Heyne for the Saints – and is anyone else depressed by the lack of quality rooks in the backline? If Grimes and/or Petterd don’t get a game, a lot of coaches will be tearing their hair out!
dylan
December 8, 2008 at 9:49 am
alright atm im looking at all the players that missed a few games last season which i think i could make a bit of money off and hopefully keep them in my side for the season(n.stevens)
so far i got hasleby,kerr,Gumbleton and Headland. I can see kerrs average going up alot and i cant really lose in gumbleton, but the other 2 i dont no much about. are they good for DT?
Also monty i could not find Eddie sansbury for the kangas. i was going to look at him because he was 300k for the kangas last season so i was guessing he was a alright player that only got 1 game before been injured.
dylan
December 8, 2008 at 10:00 am
also i forgot to add Drummond and Malceski.
another question monty do u think andy ottens for adelaide will be able to put into the backline?
Nick
December 8, 2008 at 10:02 am
Dan, I think they’ll give Butler a game. The coaching staff seriously rate him, and he looks like he’ll get his first preseason in.
In terms of m0nty listing the teams based on everybody being fully fit, Jones and Hunter have already been ruled out of any participation in the NAB Cup. Hunter had surgery last week. While we might stick them in the R1 team, it’s quite unlikely with the depth we’ve got in key position defenders at the club.
If we’re looking at fantasy relevance, both players could increase their averages quite a bit on last year provided they’re fully fit. Looking at this blog one might come to the conclusion they’re playing R1, when in reality they aren’t good prospects to have at all!
I wouldn’t expect m0nty to know these details though, there are scarce details of both injuries on BigFooty and EaglesFlyingHigh so most supporters wouldn’t even be aware. But I’m all for improving the quality of information on FanFooty 😉
Dan
December 8, 2008 at 12:27 pm
@nick
True, article probably should be called “Best 22” and not “Round 1”. Either that, or include injuries in the guesstimates.
Cool about Butler. Hope he gets a chance to prove himself. Won’t be putting him in my team though. Not durable enough.
Won’t be putting Bones or Hunter in my team either for that matter. Maybe Hurn or Staker depending on midfield predictions coming true.
Cam
December 8, 2008 at 12:45 pm
does anyone see the potential NM recruiters saw in Lachie Hansen?
Chad
December 8, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Monty, another one from Port. Paul Stewart, could be around the mark, but I cant seem to find him in the planner?
Rodger
December 8, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Great Stuff Monty!!! Just one correction in the form of putting Jude Bolton in the Sydney team twice and do u really think richmond will play coughlin in round 1?
Virgil
December 8, 2008 at 5:06 pm
@ Chad: Paul Stewart is in the Planner, listed as a forward (I think that’s a misplacement).
@ Dylan: Eddie Sansbury has been delisted.
Raf
December 8, 2008 at 5:08 pm
J Morton ahead of the entire Waiting list for Hawthorn, and may even start.
Josh Kennedy a monty to start for WCE if fit. WCE is very tough to call on the whole.
The difference between Leo Barry and Ben Matthews is that Leo Barry has been a key player and Matthews really hasn’t. He might be shunted to a less key post, but Roos won’t dump him to the 2s unless he no longer deserves a place in the team. That’s ok, he can get back in in place of the 2nd Jude Bolton you’ve cheated in there.
Chaplin for Port.
Pears definitely ahead of Hurley in development and big wraps from training. They may play both, dump that spud Laycock, and use Ryder as relieving ruck.
North is tough, but Jesse W Smith is a guaranteed inclusion IF FIT. So is Hansen. AND North is likely to play one of Josh Smith and Robbie Tarrant as another tall forward. There’s a lot of competition for spots at North, there’s about 10 capable players for the last 2 or 3 spots and only Kangalotto knows who will actually get picked. I reckon Liam Anthony a big chance though for round 1, they didn’t take a mature-age player just to have him sit out at Werribee all year.
Hill for Peake at Freo, Peake is useless, give the purple fans a peak at their new #3 pick so they can start on about how disappointed they are.
dylan: Please tell me you’re kidding about that spud Eddie Sansbury (delisted btw).
dylan
December 8, 2008 at 6:55 pm
thanks raf and virgil for clearing that up. i did not have a clue who he was but since he had a high price i thought he might have had some skill. guess not =)
m0nty
December 8, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Thanks for spotting the double Jude, his twin has been replaced with Bird.
Chaplin, yep he probably should be there. Not that there’s any fantasy value in it.
Andy Ottens, not at this stage.
Thanks to Nick and Raf in particular for their sterling research work… more of that please! 😀
Everyone seems to have a Hawk youngster who Will Play Round One but you can’t fit them all in. Can someone point out the Hawthorn players who are going to miss out with all these kids playing? Most of the incumbents are premiership players now, don’t forget.
Nick
December 9, 2008 at 7:34 am
Daniel Kerr has hurt his knee in training, badly enough for the huge ice pack and a rest through the NAB cup, if we’re to believe the article on the back page of today’s West Australian.
Nick
December 9, 2008 at 7:47 am
Sorry for jumping the gun a bit there, on further investigation it turns out Kerr is on restricted training after a minor knee procedure during the off-season and they are keeping him out of trouble by not playing him until late Feb to early March.
dylan
December 9, 2008 at 8:33 am
mmm dont no if i want him in my dt still now.lol
just read on the afl site that hodge has had surgery on his shoulder. They think he should be fine though for most of his training.
http://www.afl.com.au/News/NEWSARTICLE/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=70711
Dan
December 9, 2008 at 8:34 am
@Raf
Don’t you think Hill will have to bulk up a bit more before he can play?
ryz
December 9, 2008 at 9:32 am
dont think jarryd morton is ahead of most for hawthorn. kids got skills and can find the ball, but was the clanger king. looked unsettled and rushed alot of fairly simple opportunities, dt wise though, who care. I would have stokesy in before him. i would assume tucky or mini man would be hittin the deck ahead of him.
id also think that with no croad, gily and murph would both play? especially in round 1
keen to see jpk get a few games too
Scuzzlebut
December 9, 2008 at 11:30 am
Re the lack of cheap defenders, I agree that Hurley will play round 1, because:
– Knights is rebuilding and needs to get experience into Essendons spine,
– It can free up Fletcher,
– Fletcher is a dinosaur and Knights needs Hurley to learn quick smart,
– Knights will want to justify using pick 5 on a tall defender when there were so many guns available(eg Ziebell, Rich),
– I know he has only played against kids, but Hurley looks a lot better than Essendons other options,
– Hurley is a nice kick so will be invaluable in Essendon’s back line,
– Unlike most KPPs, his body is ready for AFL.
He may only provide N J Brown-like DT scores, but I’m getting him so he can sit on my bench all year, in case of emergency, eg losing 2 or more defenders in a week, which happened to me a couple of times last year
Migz
December 9, 2008 at 12:30 pm
You may have to think about putting Hayden Skipworth into that Essendon starting 22 monty.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl/story/0,26576,24771750-19742,00.html
Nick
December 9, 2008 at 12:47 pm
How do you guys factor in previous injuries into your selections?
Hodge’s surgery, is Pavlich’s knee recovered? Etc etc.
Lakey91
December 9, 2008 at 1:09 pm
M0nty, I saw you put big tom hawkins in the geelong team – reckon he will play the majority of the season? How do u see his DT prospects – his price of 278k is tempting me!
Chad
December 9, 2008 at 1:11 pm
All you can do is look fir the most durable players nick. I’m classing Ryan okeefe as a premium/keeper not because his average is top7 in forward line, but his total score is close to top 7. Missed 1 game in last 4 years or something.
I’m hoping that hodge will drop in price and pick him up later, same as pav
Nick
December 9, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Do you feel the same about Chad Cornes?
m0nty
December 9, 2008 at 1:53 pm
In today’s training post, Hawkins is only just out of a moon boot after foot surgery, so his round 1 status looks a bit shaky actually.
Lakey91
December 9, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Yeh i actually read the training post straight after i posted that so yeh! Bit dissappointing but if he can have a good late preseason i might still be interested, but I must admit the lack of a full pre-season is always offputting.
Chad
December 9, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Still undecided on Chad Cornes. If he is still able to be selected as a defender and he can stay on the park, 408k is a bargin.
Scuzzlebut
December 9, 2008 at 4:46 pm
From afl.com today: “The passionate utility shattered his finger against St Kilda in round six and also battled nagging calf and shoulder complaints before finally succumbing to a knee injury after the stirring round 16 Showdown victory.â€
Was it last year or the year before when someone poked him in the eye? He’ll probably get struck by lightning next year.
Chad
December 9, 2008 at 8:06 pm
If chad is a defender I will certainly get him
XztatiK
December 9, 2008 at 11:01 pm
“I’m tipping Gallman to beat Kite in their battle”
Kitey is WAY ahead at the moment.
monty, did you forget Taylor W or just go with Tippo? I would expect the Crows to go with more than just two KF’s. Tippett, Walker and Gill is likely (with Stevens taking the Kite/Gallman spot in defence).
dylan, Andy Otten (no s) is a MID/FWD, don’t expect him to play round one but should break in at some point.
monty, I must say, you’re approach to first-year players is very Laidley-like lol.
Shakin77
December 10, 2008 at 9:26 am
Nice work Monty. Gutsy to put you neck on the line this early.
For the Blues. Edwards will have to do a lot right to get in the side. Russell and Wiggins would play before Edwards as it sits right now. I would start Hadley before Bentick. Grigg (if fit) is not iffy. One of our bigger improvers in 08.
All in all a top effort for a Hawks fan. 😉
m0nty
December 10, 2008 at 10:03 am
I said it was very conservative, Xztatik. Kite may look better at training to the fans with his flashy runs, but to replace Bassett you need more defensive skills. If Kite was being groomed to replace McLeod then I’d be with you all the way. Gallman strikes me, at this admittedly far distance, to be more of a Bassett type.
Craig has not shown faith in Walker thus far. If he’d played more games this year I’d be more confident of him getting a gig in R1 09. He’s a project player and I am not sure the project is finished.
Also, the Crow fans are referring to Otten as “Andy Forgotten”. LOL
Shakin, thanks for the insight!
Raf
December 10, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Dan, I don’t see Hill as a 20 game player for Freo this season, but I do see Harvey giving him a few early games and using him on the wing or HFF where he can use his pace and won’t be expected to get too physical.
The usual things which keep 1st year draftees out are endurance, ability and good established players in the draftee’s position. Hill has the endurance and skills, and would not need to displace a good established player.
The need to bulk up to play is a KPP thing. Plenty of skinny kids get a go every year in forward and midfield roles, and Hill isn’t just another skinny kid to Freo (I still think Freo are nuts, but we might as well see…)
XztatiK
December 10, 2008 at 9:55 pm
“Kite may look better at training to the fans with his flashy runs, but to replace Bassett you need more defensive skills. If Kite was being groomed to replace McLeod then I’d be with you all the way. Gallman strikes me, at this admittedly far distance, to be more of a Bassett type.”
Fair enough, but I can tell you that his defensive skills are what has impressed me the most – his superior ball-winning ability is just a bonus IMO.
I remember one game he only managed about 6 touches, but everyone at the game was extremely impressed with his defensive game.
m0nty
December 10, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Good stuff X, thanks for the insight. It’s going to be fun to watch who wins that battle.