Some of the best premium fantasy forwards in the game are at a temptingly low price point this week.
A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Super Coach.
I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.
Big Dippers
I’ll be honest: I got lucky last week by talking down Brent Harvey. I also had a win with Luke Hodge, who looks like he’s back to full fitness and able to break the forward tags that are still troubling the likes of Lindsay Gilbee and Andrew McLeod. Buy Hodgey if you can.
Everyone will be looking at Lance Franklin again this week, because they know he’s got Essendon in a couple of weeks and he normally kickstarts his mid-season run with a bag against them. But what of this week against Carlton? Last year in round 22 he got Paul Bower as an opponent and kicked his 100th goal of the season, in a game that I’m not sure a decent form line can be taken from. The previous year he missed the 100-point belting the Hawks dished out to the Blues, so I’m left with a few question marks as to how he’ll go. Will he match up on Bower, Michael Jamison or Jarrad Waite? I daresay Waite will be used forward again, at least to start with, so to me the issue is whether you think Buddy is going to choose this week to explode like we all know he’s going to at some point, or whether he’s going to do it against Adam McPhee the week after. Better to be safe than sorry on this one, I think, and buy him early.
Matthew Pavlich cracked the ton in both competitions for the first time this season in the win over Sydney. Is it a case of when Pav fires, Freo fires, or the other way round? If you have enough money to upgrade Hayden Skipworth to Pav this week, keep in mind this corollary: in 16 Derbies, Pav has scored a DT ton in only one, and that was in 2002. Admittedly scores of 88 and 96 last year weren’t too bad, but if you think he’s about to explode into a string of “hunjis” then tone down your expectations a little.
If you can’t reach Franklin or Pavlich, a lot of coaches are looking at Daniel Giansiracusa. Much conjecture surrounds what exactly has been wrong with him, with even Bulldog supporters not having a sniff of an injury. From reading the Footscray boards, it seems to be a coaching issue, with Rodney Eade allegedly punishing Gia for not working hard enough in the Eagles game by benching him for long periods – though I hardly think Giansiracusa was the only one who had a down day on that particular Sunday afternoon. More worrying is the thought that maybe the rise of Shaun Higgins as a forward rotating into the midfield has starved Gia of some oxygen in that attacking 50. I would like to see Gia crack the ton and be given his customary 90% TOG again, rather than the 70%s he has been getting in 2009, before buying him in either competition as a genuine top 7 prospect. Football boots on Rebel Sport Catalogue.
Loop De Loop
The DT Talk boys introduced a new phrase into the fantasy footy lexicon this week: the “red zone”, familiar to those of us who use the excellent FFGenie program to check breakevens. FFGenie colours a breakeven red if it is higher than a player’s average for the year. That often indicates that a play has hit the top of the rollercoaster, though you would have found Ryan Houlihan in the red zone last week and he blew past his breakeven with a hugely junky fourth quarter against the Bulldogs this week, scoring a slutty 58 DT points to take his total to 124. Houlihan was only in the red zone due to an encounter with the DT cash cow killer team in Sydney, and the same was true this week with Paul Hasleby. A combination of Brett Kirk and a tweak in a calf muscle confined Purple Haze to a solitary handball by half time. Thankfully for his tens of thousands of owners, Paul Roos decided to lift the tag at half time and use Kirk elsewhere, allowing Hasleby to score 55 DT points in the second half and almost rescue his season. Unfortunately, missing half a game leaves his breakeven at 100 in DT and 118 in SC, which is 25 points into the red zone. Will Hase be a Holuihan type who can drag himself out of the red zone? Happily, his recent record in Derbies is quite good, with two tons in 2007 and an average of just on 100 from his last four against the West Coast. The long-term concern has to be about Hase getting the tag every week in the wake of Rhys Palmer‘s ACL injury, unfortunately, so I would not blame fantasy coaches who want to take the modest profit on Hasleby and run.
Another bunch of fantasy favourites whose prices are about to go into stall are Taylor Walker, Patrick Dangerfield and Jared Petrenko, all of whom suffered from Neil Craig’s obsession with denying good rookies the time on ground they rightfully deserve to repay the faith shown in them by fantasy coaches. Walker sat out almost the entire third quarter, while Petrenko’s DT score was almost left in the negatives until some late Q4 cheapies, and Dangerfield is being left behind in the TOG rankings as well. Walker’s red zone breakevens of 50/55 are higher than all but one of his five scores so far in either competition. Port’s record against tall key forwards, as you can research using the Breakdown pages, is pretty good, with only Franklin and Riewoldt getting away from them so far. Stay at home full forwards in particular score poorly, as witnessed by the scores of Matthew Lloyd, Jarryd Roughead and Brad Miller. Yes, I’m afraid this week is the top of the rollercoaster for young TW. Craig’s knock on Dangerfield in the pre-season was over his fitness, and he may decide to rest him just to prove the point. As for Petrenko, he’ll be lucky not to be replaced by Brad Symes this week so the decision may be made for you. It’s the Craig way!
I’m sure I would have named at least one player up there that you either have in your side or are eying off this week, so tell me where I’ve gone wrong. What’s up with Gia? When is Buddy going to go off? Have the Crowbot rookies run out of juice? Can Hase maintain the rage? Tell me in the comments.
The3rd
April 30, 2009 at 4:32 pm
What IS up with Gia? I have no idea whats going on with him.. Almost wanted to drop him, but that would be silly.
I have Taylor Walker and P.Dangerfield, however dont know if i should be dropping them for $ yet.. I got 15 trades and don’t want to waste any more..
If anyones got ideas that could help, that would be great!
ZEDMAN
April 30, 2009 at 4:34 pm
buddy will kick ten goals this week! carlton’s back line is one of the worst in the league!
Heater
April 30, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Great stuff again, Monty!
Can Hase maintain the rage? Not sure I care really as out he goes this week from my side for Pendlebury. However the only way I can do this is Hille out and Kruezer in.
Haselby was my Nick Stevens of 2009 but his form has been patchy and Freos even worse so his time has come to an end for my side. With an average of 123 Pendlebury is too tempting for me to ignore!
Frank
April 30, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Great wrap Monty. I am the only one out there thinking Hasleby to Moss and pocket the change for a premium upgrade?
Or even an almost straight swap to the struggling Luke Power? although his BE this round is around 145!
Geoff
April 30, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Gia is over rated .. he’s a 80 point player who happened to score in the 90’s last year .. he scored a massive 140 in the first round this year and hasn’t fired a shot since .. too inconsistent, much better value around than Gia
Fudd
April 30, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Im considering a Didak to Franklin trade this week as Didak is possibly out for another 2. I wouldnt normally consider a sideways trade but im going to get a couple of zeros up forward if i dont make a move…… thoughts?
Howie
April 30, 2009 at 4:50 pm
Will leave my Crow boys alone for one more week I think, just hope Craig was using the Melbourne BYE as a way of resting his young players.
@Zedman, not too sure what season you have been watching, Carltons backline have finally gelled and they are a big chance against the Hawks this week. Obviously you are a foolish magpie or bomber….
Fudd
April 30, 2009 at 4:51 pm
BTW Monty love – slef -raising pav, rather amusing 🙂
frank
April 30, 2009 at 4:53 pm
whats peoples thoughts on whose a better downgrade out of bartham from coll or spend the extra 50k for hartlett from port?
Howie
April 30, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Where can I find this weeks B/Es?
Nick
April 30, 2009 at 5:03 pm
The talk from Craig about the showdown in Adelaide being a good experience for his young players has me wondering if they made the call to put their youth on ice for the rest of the game when they realised Melbourne weren’t going to take the points off them.
I didn’t watch the game closely enough, but the score line looks like Adelaide took the foot off the pedal after half time?
thatguy
April 30, 2009 at 5:07 pm
monty palmer never got tagged in the first place because he butchered the ball so much. so him going out wont affect haselby. everyone gets done by captain kirk
Pendles
April 30, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Amazing how quickly ppl will jump off (&BURN a trade) players after 1,2 average games & jump on others who have a 1 off blinder.
If its a good upgrade then sure. But trades are not to be wasted.
Wonder what will happen when heaven forbid, Gablett posts a sub hundy? Like an awful 98 or something.
Raf
April 30, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Frank, also considering Hasleby – Moss. I have to offload Boomer Harvey too, and I want to do Walker-> Warren while it’s still on, and I want to do something like Petrenko – Mackie or Sam Fisher while they’re still on the low end of the rollercoaster… but you know, 2 trades per week!
At this stage I reckon Hasleby – Moss and Walker-Warren this week, then use that cash to go Harvey – Steve Johnson and Petrenko – Mackie next week.
Lee
April 30, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Barham named in starting line-up, Sidebottom not.
Nick
April 30, 2009 at 5:14 pm
The only trades I’m looking at will be Hille to Kreuzer, then Harvey to N. Reiwoldt.
Jacko
April 30, 2009 at 5:16 pm
petrenko still has games to play for adelaide in the future and he is named in the side for this weekend
hairy
April 30, 2009 at 5:30 pm
hase copped a knee to the calf nothing else should get a ton this week against the budgies
Erin
April 30, 2009 at 6:03 pm
Am I the only only one considering Simon Black an upgrade target? He has dropped $55K on the back of 1 terrible performance (36) which will stop affecting his price this week. He is a proven performer who look like he in findng some touch and costs under $350K.
GIbbo
April 30, 2009 at 6:11 pm
@frank
im considering the same thing as you in the barham or hartlett trade but i think might just go with hartlett cos of his consistency so far
btw how long does anyone rekon levi greenwood will be in the north team for??
andy
April 30, 2009 at 6:24 pm
yeah sucks to be me cos i have walker petrenko and hasleby..backing buddy to lift this week as iv installed him in place of boomer COME ON HAZE
Rob
April 30, 2009 at 7:10 pm
@ Zedman
That was a stupid comment. Carlton probably was the worst back line this year. With a rookie holding it up. It has come along in leaps and bounds this year and i’ll be glad for you to eat your words for the rest of the year!
Korza
April 30, 2009 at 7:14 pm
I am poised to pounce next trade week, after culling Walker to Warren and Robinson for Bahram i have 180k sitting in the bank.Ranked 32 in D/T i will next week upgrade 2 of my 4 playing rookies to 1 premium and a performing mid pricer.Iam not one to sit on my trades. To win the whole thing, one needs to take risks all but calculated ones.
@ Monty i promise i will give you exclusive rights to interview me upon winning this competition, free of charge.Wish me luck
Raf
April 30, 2009 at 7:17 pm
Hase isn’t one bad score. He’s only had one good score is the problem, and now Palmer’s out.
Moss should catch up to Hasleby within 2 weeks due to the big scores in his backlog, so Hasleby to Moss is at least 80k. The trick is whether it’s more than 80k, and whether Moss can go on to average 80 or something like that.
bigbudyboy
April 30, 2009 at 7:24 pm
is it crazy to go
d. wells -> HH?
J Edgar Hoover
April 30, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Damn Commies
jb
April 30, 2009 at 7:59 pm
Monty(or others) whats the go with TTuck? Is he carrying that hip injury still? Average score last week. Mossy killed him in SC.
Is he worth ditching for a cash cow?
craig
April 30, 2009 at 8:10 pm
Ablett to Barham anyone???
Awww…. :'(
Daz
April 30, 2009 at 8:29 pm
‘I would like to see Gia crack the ton and be given his customary 90% TOG again, rather than the 70%s he has been getting in 2009, before buying him in either competition as a genuine top 7 prospect.’
Last year he averaged around 70% TOG.
Tuos
April 30, 2009 at 8:34 pm
who should i get for Hasleby this week Dal Santo or Bartel?
Dave
April 30, 2009 at 8:59 pm
Have 350ish to spend on a FWD and was thinking Gia for his tempting price, but my concern is his TOG and his lack of decent scores, but I have a feeling the bulldogs will hit their straps soon and start tearing it up..
D. GiansiraIcantspellmyname
April 30, 2009 at 9:16 pm
Get me, I’ve had a good haircut this week.
Paddy
April 30, 2009 at 9:25 pm
@bigbudyboy
That’s what I’m doing this week, and then will use the leftover to upgrade Skippy to Richo next week and may be able to stretch it to upgrade Rich to a premium a bit later
@Tuos
Consider Hayes – he’ll do as well as those 2 but is a lot cheaper. Was scoring low initially as he had low TOG as he came back from injury
Disco (UK)
April 30, 2009 at 9:36 pm
Gia is version 2009 of Dal Santo version 2008.
Bud will go off when the Hawks find their mojo. Not long now…
I think N.Craig was protecting the Crows rookie young bodies from the hardness of wet weather football, so they could avoid injury and also be available to experience the derby in R6.
@D. GiansiraIcantspellmyname – gold!
kped
April 30, 2009 at 9:46 pm
@paddy.
richo to premium? richo is a premium i would of thought.
@frank.
HH over barham. he’s disposal is woeful. he should get axed soon.
Sir Fartypants Likkiballs
April 30, 2009 at 9:55 pm
I think he means Daniel Rich to a premium…
sheezsmithen
April 30, 2009 at 10:24 pm
Franklin is overweight and triple teamed playing for injury ravaged pedestrias. He isn’t going to explode. 8o is what to expect for rest of year….Hartlett – Barham is a skunk…..Bartel or Dal Santo? assuming that is a joke.
mark
April 30, 2009 at 10:29 pm
need help!!!!
ok so thinking of tradin tuck & haslbey for pendlebury & hartlet & have 65k in bank
or
swan & hartlet
please help, any thoughts???
thanks
tim
April 30, 2009 at 11:03 pm
im pretty sure i will:
hille to kruezer
harvey to riewoldt
Thoughts???
Jake
April 30, 2009 at 11:16 pm
Hi guys,
I have David Hille, and am looking to trade him in for Josh Fraser. Is Fraser the best buy?
I also have Skipworth, Didak, and Hogan in my forward line. If I trade hille I will have 17 trades left and I don’t really want to trade any of my forwards, I’d rather cop a donut because there are no decent forward downgrades, then wait til Didak or Skipworth return or until Hogan gets a game. However it might not be for a week or two until any of these 3 are back. Thoughts?
Sir Fartypants Likkiballs
April 30, 2009 at 11:36 pm
@ Jake
I traded hille for kruezer… fair bit cheaper and seems to be getting better and better. He’ll be an important part of the blues’ line up all year I hope. Fraser is in form so if you can afford him, go for it. Just hope he doesn’t get any injuries I guess.
I hear what your’e saying with no fwd downgrades, if you got kruezer would you have the cash to trade skippy for buddy/ pav or even reiwoldt? That’s what I’m considering…
Jake
April 30, 2009 at 11:42 pm
@ Sir Fartypants Likkiballs
That was the other option I was considering. Just not sure if Kreuzer will average enough points. But yeah Skippy to Riewoldt does sound tempting. cheers mate!
Brad
May 1, 2009 at 12:49 am
With Harvey and Skipworth and 130k in the bank what do people think of Boomer to Riewoldt and looking to upgrade skippy in the near future when other premiums drop a bit. Low BE for Riewoldt so seems obivous to me. Thoughts everyone?
Brendon
May 1, 2009 at 1:12 am
Hodge has another week left in him to drop. You said to get on Buddy last week and he had a quiet one…. As I expected.
If Hodge hits 350k this week, I might break a golden rule and lock him in as my 6th mid. What do others think? What is a 6th mid supposed to average?
I already have:
Ablett, Bartel, Selwood, Cross as keepers. Looking to bring in Swan as soon as he has a quiet game.
My backline is solid, unless Harding turns into a dud… I dont really have room for Hodge back there.
Cornes, Goddard, Fisher, Enright, Mackie, Harding, Hayden (Raines, Cheney)
Heater
May 1, 2009 at 8:42 am
@ Mark. I’d go for Pendlebury for SC as he averages more than Swan. If it was DT then Swan is your man I reckon.
Paddy35
May 1, 2009 at 8:58 am
Am I the only one who didn’t see Barham’s game as a total schocker?
He was tagging Lovett who was dragging him to the goal face. Despite the early Mark / Goal and, of course, that dashing final run, Barham kept him pretty quiet. And he was right on his hammer for that last run.
Despite the clangers, Mick would’ve been pretty happy with his game. Taggers are often inefficient users of the ball, but improved by the way they restrict opposition.
He had the same number of stats as Lovett, won a bit of CP, and kept him completely out of the game for the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Added to the fact that his effectiveness was better than Thomas / Fraser / Toovey / Rocca / Clarke / Swan (according to AFL Game Day), why is everyone jumping on him?
I think you guys aren’t watching the games that closely.
Brad
May 1, 2009 at 9:41 am
Does anyone think neon leon can maintin his average or am i better off going for Riewoldt who is more expensive but a trusted high scorer?
steve
May 1, 2009 at 10:19 am
@Paddy35 its because he didnt have a good game for fantasy purposes (too many clangers) sure he played a good game keeping Lovett quiet, which means he’ll definetly keep his spot this, but he didnt score well. Just like when one of my players does nothing all day then kick a few goals in junk time, i’ll still call it a good game when really he played terrible
Rourke
May 1, 2009 at 11:42 am
@Brad
Leon Davis had the highest SC average in the COMP for most of the second half of last year. That wasn’t fully priced in at the start, so he’s still going up. Keep him, he’ll average 125 in SC
made two trades
May 1, 2009 at 12:03 pm
125 lulz