Time to reveal my DT squad of 30… if you see your players here then fear, because my team is cursed!
There were a couple of theories I was working with this preseason, only some of which I had revealed here on the blog. The first was the all-premium back theory, which I held to for the most part, only breaking down on the subject of Raines. The other was what I would call the quarterback theory. This is that with the cluster and zones in general in operation in the AFL this year – albeit that zonal positioning hasn’t appeared all that much in the two games so far – would lead to a big increase in scores for the so-called “quarterback” position: Hodge at Hawthorn, Bowden/Newman at Richmond, Chad Cornes at Port, those sort of players. My feeling is that there are going to be a lot more games this year where half-back lines play kick to kick with each other in a big circle outside the midfield flood, which makes me think that there will be a siphoning of points away from the midfield and towards half backs. As I said, signs are not good from the first two games with the scores of Hodge, Newman and Bowden in particular, but that was what I was thinking.
So, onto the team!
Luke Hodge: This is a risk, given his lack of a preseason. I saw him in the flesh in that last preseason game and was impressed with the way his game style just attracted the ball to him like a magnet. He may start slowly but he’s a keeper, so it doesn’t matter to me that his price may dip at the start because he’ll be in the top 7 fantasy backs at the end.
Joel Bowden: This was a late change when I got spooked by the shenanigans surrounding Brendon Goddard‘s fitness. Mock me if you may. He also will have his up and down weeks but has as much of a shot as anyone to be in the top 7 backs.
Peter Burgoyne: Another big oscillator in his fantasy scores, but I’m betting he’ll have more of those 130 days and less of the 60s and 70s as his midfield rotations increase. Port will win more games this year and he’ll get more of the ball.
Chris Newman: I said very early this preseason that I wanted maximum exposure to the Tigers back line, so that is why I went with Newman. Bowden will spend time swinging his way forward and back, but Newman will stay back, so he’s the dependable scorer.
Chad Cornes: Do I need to explain this one?
Jed Adcock: I also needed at least one of the Lions half backs, who also look like they’re going to chop this year based on points from the NAB series. Josh Drummond is too injury-prone, and Adcock is underpriced so this was an easy decision.
Andrew Raines: We all saw his preseason. This was the right move. The fact that he got injured is not a huge disaster for me, precisely because I had him as my 7th back. My structure means that I haven’t already bought Jarryn Geary, Josh Head or Scott Clouston at around the same price, so a single sideways trade is still very much on the cards without having to dynamite my team.
Stephen Hill (e): Pretty standard.
Greg Broughton: Would have changed him if I had been able to get through, but enh. He’ll play soon enough.
Jimmy Bartel (c): In retrospect I probably should have gone with Gary Ablett jnr because his preseason was just ridiculous. Sometimes the pick that all the nuffies are making is still the right pick. Not displeased with this though.
Bryce Gibbs: Another popular pick that so far is being justified. Gibbs’ soft role on Cousins is exactly the way his owners would have hoped he would develop.
Brent Reilly: I liked Reilly from very early on and his NAB numbers gave me no pause. To make this pick look good he has to start like a train, with no Scott Thompson in the Crows side and several other midfielders underdone.
Travis Tuck: Hawk fans love to complain about him but I have always loved the fact that he’s at the bottom of packs getting the hard footy. Clarkson loves that sort of play and Tuck proved his worth tonight with a 31-touch performance with just two clangers (in a game where Hodge and Bartel had 6 and Joel Selwood had 8).
Paul Hasleby: Standard stuff, he’s a lock.
Daniel Rich: I’ve been sold on him all preseason. Forkie has been anchored to my #6 DT mid spot from the start.
Mitch Robinson (e): The rising Carlton tide lifts the boats of kids like this one. This year’s Josh Hill.
Liam Anthony: Bah humbug!
Dean Cox (vc): You don’t ruck with your cheekbone.
David Hille: I had Brad Ottens here for a long time, then at one point found enough money to upgrade to Hille and never looked at the starting rucks again. That decision is going to come down to injury luck, and I’m happy despite Ottens’ monster R1 score to have chosen the younger man.
Daniel Currie: This is probably the wrong pick, but I just didn’t like any of the other basement draftee rucks. Hopefully I won’t have to worry about this.
Jake Spencer: More of a chance to get an extended run than Sam Jacobs, I think, though I may be proved wrong.
Matthew Pavlich: Has trimmed down to look more like a midfielder. My concern with him historically has been his proneness to injuries like the hot spots he developed late last year due to the excess muscle on his frame, but this isn’t a problem any more. Freo will need his help all over the ground this year, more than last, so he’s probably the best candidate to be Richo Mk II.
Lance Franklin: I loved his game in the praccy, and despite him spending the vast majority of Friday night in his traditional role inside forward 50, I think in other games he’ll be freed up more to roam the wings. Still has tremendous upside.
Ryan Houlihan: Another rising Blue boat. With discounts so rare this season it’s prudent to make use of them. I expect he’s going to turn into a garbage time gem, and Carlton look to have a fair few more games this season where they’ll be winning comfortably late on.
Shaun Higgins: No-brainer.
Hayden Skipworth: If he survives what now seems like an inevitable wave of Essendon injuries, he’ll be locked into that Bomber midfield and get plenty of cheap ball.
Nathan Krakouer: I’m not hugely confident about this one, but his numbers are too tasty to ignore. His spot may be in jeopardy if Marlon Motlop burns up the SANFL, and I’m still not sure of this mooted role replacing Peter Burgoyne. I’ll be as keen as anyone to see if the fantasy hype is justified on Sunday.
Mitchell Brown: His naming in the forward pocket is a bad sign. The dropping of Ben McKinley for him is a great sign. If he can have the sort of season McKinley had last year, he’ll be startable. With Adam Hunter still ess-tee-ruggling with injury, Brown could very well be used as John Worsfold’s swingman. I bought him expecting him to get halfback ball as a CHB who could run outside. His NAB numbers suggested this role. Exactly what sort of role he plays is still uncertain, but I’ll be watching with interest.
Taylor Walker (e): I finally came around on TW because I couldn’t find anyone else I really liked. Hopefully Brown’s scores will keep him benched.
Wade Thompson: I would have changed this after teams were announced if it had been possible, though I’m not unhappy. Choco loves him.
That’s a structure of 5/2/1/1 – 2/3/1/2 – 2/0/0/2 – 2/4/0/3 = 11/9/2/8. You can check out my team’s live scores by using this link – my team ID is 22633, as you can see, if you want to use me as your head to head opponent for the Exteam feature of FanFooty. So, that’s my squad: snipe away!
Clive
March 28, 2009 at 2:17 am
Pavlich has historically been injury prone? Last year was the first time he hasn’t played 22 games since 2001 (when he played 21).
If he’s injury prone, I’d hate to see what you think of the like of Drummond and Gumbleton.
benno
March 28, 2009 at 2:36 am
very interesting. makes my team look like last year’s men. but i like ’em.
do you plan to regret not having ablett all year, or plan to trade for him if his price drops?
you’ll get some big scores out of franklin and hodge (especially late in the season) but bowden? how shall i say it … brave.
SWB
March 28, 2009 at 2:36 am
Its an interesting theory you’ve gone with monty, a bit of an all or nothing and the early signs aren’t great but it certainly has upside. I don’t know what makes you think Haselby is a lock, I personally went for butler instead given they both have injury history and the cheaper butler will outscore him in IMO. Other than that I think its a really good side perhaps with a few too many premium backs for my liking who other coaches may pick up cheaper later on.
Simon
March 28, 2009 at 2:39 am
Joel Bowden is past it, Newman wont see much growth in his average, Raines ha!, Reilly wont average more than 80, Haselby will get injured and average no more than 80, no Ziebell.
Chris Mullin
March 28, 2009 at 2:40 am
which club do you support monty?
Simonoz
March 28, 2009 at 3:13 am
… if you see your players here then fear, because my team is cursed……….
OH NO – Up until I read this blog, I kind of liked my team. Finding 13 starters and 4 bench spots occupied by the same players as Monty has gives me heartburn.
Halfway thru Rd 1 Mont….WE have a solid team. If & when it blows up in our faces this season – I now have a scapegoat – YOU !!
Good Luck to you (us)
Oz
Simonoz
March 28, 2009 at 3:13 am
PS….Chris – Monty is a hawks fan mate
Pingback: The chosen ones: m0nty’s 2009 Super Coach
Disco (UK)
March 28, 2009 at 4:20 am
Simon – Reilly/Haselby are clearly underpriced cash cows, not keepers.
Simon
March 28, 2009 at 4:31 am
disco – you shouldnt be spending that much money on a cash cow. net profits are definitely not justified. much more to gain purchasing cash cows under $200k and upgrading elsewhere – many of those people around.
Superfist
March 28, 2009 at 4:36 am
I like the idea of a “theory” and who didn’t have the zoning issue in mind? Though I call you on this Monty – if you really had the courage of your convictions re the zone you would have picked Bock.
Surprised at the Franklin choice but i was certainly looking at him. was expecting you to go small in the forward line based on your blogs and on that basis steve j (who i love and had) was obvious, or nay-bro. I am interested in the no ziebell pick – your lack of faith in jyd was well placed – wrong target though.
Simonoz
March 28, 2009 at 4:54 am
simon – much more to gain purchasing cash cows under $200k and upgrading elsewhere ………ONLY if there are warranted CC’s under 200k
Simon
March 28, 2009 at 5:57 am
Simonz – it seems you have made similar errors to Monty. Pity.
Muppet Executioner
March 28, 2009 at 6:05 am
Was stoked to see Gazza Jr hit the ground runnin, even though I think he’s an umpiring mummies boy. The reason I picked him for SC is that you dont have to wonder about who’s gonna be skipper.
Without him, it would have been a choice of Goodesy, Rievoldt, Pav or Boomer. So it just simplifies things. And another thing – even though he was $712K, when you’re talkind captains points – asking price needs to be assessed on different criteria than a non-skipper spot.
Though I still have to deal with Raines and Anthony – hopefully I can carry them. I guess I’m lucky having Rance there on the pine who can jump into Raines’s spot so I can ice him without burning a trade so early on. Though about Anthony – just terrible form Laids. What have the Fantasy guys ever done to you – did Monty do you sister from behind?
Woofta
March 28, 2009 at 6:14 am
What stood out for me this year was the large number of cows in the 180-240 range,and the lack of ready made rooks.
Muppet Executioner
March 28, 2009 at 6:14 am
“A comedic look at Carro with no harm intended”
Just checking – who thinks Carro Wilson resembles an old dusty Christmas tree thats been sitting in the garage for three months. I despise her. It’s a lovely Saturday morning and the world is my oyster but I absolutely detest this despicable piece of z-grade ass.
I just hope the day gets better and shes involved in an accident where Grant Thomas and Hutchy mistakenly run over her in a D9 bulldozer. She is a borderline criminal of journalisim. All of her sources to her “stories” come from her morning bowl of Cocoa Pops – Snap, crackle , Eddies finished. Fair dinkum, pre game GF entertainment this year should Carro and Adrian Anderson burned at the stake in the middle of the G – mmm yum.
Woofta
March 28, 2009 at 6:27 am
Yeah Muppet, Nicolas Cage was the Wicker Man, lets have Caro as the Wicker Woman.
Simonoz
March 28, 2009 at 6:39 am
LOL Simon – cant be an error after two games of the first round mate…..we’ll see during the year ok !
Have a good one mate…..
Simon
March 28, 2009 at 6:44 am
no probs dude. was fun talking.
Simonoz
March 28, 2009 at 6:48 am
PS….loved this guys reply on an earlier blog…..
With the state of players and injuries in the first 24 hours, I reckon Hentschel is going to do both his ACLs going through the banner.
moore
March 28, 2009 at 7:03 am
lots of money spent in the backline. . . and wated monty. . . wasted! joel bowden was always going to play up the ground . .
Prophet
March 28, 2009 at 7:22 am
What a backline. Wont be surprised if it outscores your midfield on a number of a occasions
Muppet Executioner
March 28, 2009 at 7:23 am
Is that burnt toast of burning Carro?
L. Gilbee
March 28, 2009 at 7:29 am
m0nty, what’s wrong with my haircut?
Woofta
March 28, 2009 at 7:55 am
Something appealing about seeing Caro fried in front of 100,000 at the G!
Will
March 28, 2009 at 8:02 am
Interesting Monty, I built 3 teams with the big guns in the middle and forward line before deciding that maybe a team built around an elite backline full of runners could reap the big rewards. But we’ve only got two backman in common (Bowden, and Hill) and it’s too early to say if all the hype re the change in style will actually play out. I have to take you task on Hille v Ottens though. Snottens is less than 18 months older than Hille and still mangaged decent scores last year despite a significant injury. Plus he kicks more goals – if he’d kicked straight today his score would have been even more massive and I doubt that Hille can reach these levels.
Log
March 28, 2009 at 8:31 am
Poo Smells. So does monty’s team
korza
March 28, 2009 at 8:49 am
What da,
Dear Mr Monty your quaterback theory is predominately relied upon Richmond players, the way it bled on friday night your gonna need an emergency room surgeon, cause it is going to gush out come Geelong next week.
If it bleeds we can kill it……..
Hugh
March 28, 2009 at 8:57 am
mOnty / I like the team and agree, this is the year to stock up on premium backs particularly with so much junior talent in the mid and front.
I went with the Bowden / Hodge back combo also on the same basis that even if they do dip in price early, they will still be in the top few back scorers, effectively a lock and load for the season.
All I can say is I hope I’ve seen Bowden’s worst scoring game of the year already.
Good luck – I think the quarterback theory will pay off well when DT goes into head to head mode, but I think we’re both kissing the Toyota goodbye and we’re not even finished R1.
Lauren
March 28, 2009 at 9:18 am
M0nty, this is one of the best teams I have seen so far, excellent work.
Nige
March 28, 2009 at 9:20 am
I had bowden in my team for quite a while, but eventually traded out for Fisher.
I think the Raines injury and Richmonds shocker on thursday might see Bowden return to his role in the backline. He will be OK.
Richard
March 28, 2009 at 10:03 am
Did you have to curse Reilly? i wanted him to do well this year but i may as well trade him now.
rory
March 28, 2009 at 10:35 am
monty you spend your life looking this shit up and this is ur team?
Homer Thompson
March 28, 2009 at 10:41 am
m0nty’s team = FAIL
longa
March 28, 2009 at 10:41 am
17 players the same
i think every1 in the league has at least a couple of
higgins
skippy
krakouer
houlihan
raines
Renuo
March 28, 2009 at 10:42 am
If you think your team is cursed… I already have 3 injuries in my side!
oddsok
March 28, 2009 at 10:46 am
Our teams are similar in theory monty, although you have a rookie starting in the fowards and I have a rookie starting in the backs.
I also stacked my rucks. There are so few options in that area and I screwed myself over last year taking a punt on McIntosh which burnt me hugely. Save my trades for areas with more options I say.
I also went for some risky players with upside, so it’s sort of make or break. I am annoyed that the DT site removed Ablett as captain.
Hoping that Rance comes straight in for Raines to cover him until he’s right and or Suban keeps his spot, not to mention Hill.
Lummas
March 28, 2009 at 10:53 am
People are bloody quick to judge a side that has only scored after the first two games of the season have been played. By the way there are 185 in the premiership season.
I would RORY and SIMON’s sides posted so every can tear shreds of their sides.
I think you will find that when seasons ends come around blokes who have freak starts to the year, we all remember back to Jake King (marvelous cash cow that he was) to playing VFL for the last half of last year. True champions always play well in the end.
I personally am of the opinion that the backline bar your two or three premiums, needs to average between 70-80. Birchall, milburn, adcock to an extent and especially raines that is all you need from them. Sure Goddard, hodge average 100. But the forwards like richo, buddy, SJ, Roo and pavlich; and gun midfielders GAJ, Bartel and Corey, that is where the big points are.
oddsok
March 28, 2009 at 11:05 am
And lol @ the guru predictions. They are way off. I’m already half way to my ‘projected guru total’ with 13 players to come.
Muppet Executioner
March 28, 2009 at 11:07 am
And remember the golden rule :
Dont drink and trade
Macca
March 28, 2009 at 11:08 am
not convinced about Haselby for DT however have him in my SC
I am surprise you took Hodge and Bowden over say a Goddard and Fisher
I would have put Houlihan in the backline and use the money for a running forward like a Giansiracusa or Chapman
Muppet Executioner
March 28, 2009 at 11:14 am
I had a “discussion” with a fellow SC’er in my league this week and he told me he couldn’t cop $712K for Gazza. I then said that if he going to skipper the side then he’s a no-brainer – $712 or not. Am I justified in regarding asking price for a skipper differently than normal players?
Muppet Executioner
March 28, 2009 at 11:15 am
Last night I got 324 pts from one spot – surely this is worth $712K?
noffle
March 28, 2009 at 11:34 am
“This year a lot of coaches are buying Bryce Gibbs, another player whose breakout year may well have been last year and whose scores could level out below premium levels, like Selwood’s did in 2008.”
Macca
March 28, 2009 at 11:38 am
muppet
Regardless of the price GAJ is a lock and forget for the next couple of seasons at least
If you are going to adopt the “wait until his prices drops” then you are caught with your pants down if it doesn’t.
Based on last night’s GAJ score of 162 in SC, even if GAJ has a bad game next week and score say….120….his average is still over 132 so can’t see the down side
$712K well spent.
Athomas
March 28, 2009 at 11:45 am
Love the Peter Burgoyne choice, should be a ripper (I jumped on too).
I’ve gone with a similar side, Hille better hold up as 2nd ruckman!
Muppet Executioner
March 28, 2009 at 11:59 am
Thanks Macca – nice to know I’m one of the elightened ones, rather than a Child from the Corn
Muppet Executioner
March 28, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Peter Burgoyne ???
Good luck boys – you’ll need it
pascoe
March 28, 2009 at 12:11 pm
1087 with 12 players left
Dan
March 28, 2009 at 12:13 pm
Looks pretty good monty
Only ones I wouldn’t have looked at are Burgoyne and Reilly.
I’m in same situation with Raines Anthony.
Not sure what I’m going to do yet 🙂