Time to reveal my DT squad of 30… if you see your players here then fear, because my team is cursed!
There were a couple of theories I was working with this preseason, only some of which I had revealed here on the blog. The first was the all-premium back theory, which I held to for the most part, only breaking down on the subject of Raines. The other was what I would call the quarterback theory. This is that with the cluster and zones in general in operation in the AFL this year – albeit that zonal positioning hasn’t appeared all that much in the two games so far – would lead to a big increase in scores for the so-called “quarterback” position: Hodge at Hawthorn, Bowden/Newman at Richmond, Chad Cornes at Port, those sort of players. My feeling is that there are going to be a lot more games this year where half-back lines play kick to kick with each other in a big circle outside the midfield flood, which makes me think that there will be a siphoning of points away from the midfield and towards half backs. As I said, signs are not good from the first two games with the scores of Hodge, Newman and Bowden in particular, but that was what I was thinking.
So, onto the team!
Luke Hodge: This is a risk, given his lack of a preseason. I saw him in the flesh in that last preseason game and was impressed with the way his game style just attracted the ball to him like a magnet. He may start slowly but he’s a keeper, so it doesn’t matter to me that his price may dip at the start because he’ll be in the top 7 fantasy backs at the end.
Joel Bowden: This was a late change when I got spooked by the shenanigans surrounding Brendon Goddard‘s fitness. Mock me if you may. He also will have his up and down weeks but has as much of a shot as anyone to be in the top 7 backs.
Peter Burgoyne: Another big oscillator in his fantasy scores, but I’m betting he’ll have more of those 130 days and less of the 60s and 70s as his midfield rotations increase. Port will win more games this year and he’ll get more of the ball.
Chris Newman: I said very early this preseason that I wanted maximum exposure to the Tigers back line, so that is why I went with Newman. Bowden will spend time swinging his way forward and back, but Newman will stay back, so he’s the dependable scorer.
Chad Cornes: Do I need to explain this one?
Jed Adcock: I also needed at least one of the Lions half backs, who also look like they’re going to chop this year based on points from the NAB series. Josh Drummond is too injury-prone, and Adcock is underpriced so this was an easy decision.
Andrew Raines: We all saw his preseason. This was the right move. The fact that he got injured is not a huge disaster for me, precisely because I had him as my 7th back. My structure means that I haven’t already bought Jarryn Geary, Josh Head or Scott Clouston at around the same price, so a single sideways trade is still very much on the cards without having to dynamite my team.
Stephen Hill (e): Pretty standard.
Greg Broughton: Would have changed him if I had been able to get through, but enh. He’ll play soon enough.
Jimmy Bartel (c): In retrospect I probably should have gone with Gary Ablett jnr because his preseason was just ridiculous. Sometimes the pick that all the nuffies are making is still the right pick. Not displeased with this though.
Bryce Gibbs: Another popular pick that so far is being justified. Gibbs’ soft role on Cousins is exactly the way his owners would have hoped he would develop.
Brent Reilly: I liked Reilly from very early on and his NAB numbers gave me no pause. To make this pick look good he has to start like a train, with no Scott Thompson in the Crows side and several other midfielders underdone.
Travis Tuck: Hawk fans love to complain about him but I have always loved the fact that he’s at the bottom of packs getting the hard footy. Clarkson loves that sort of play and Tuck proved his worth tonight with a 31-touch performance with just two clangers (in a game where Hodge and Bartel had 6 and Joel Selwood had 8).
Paul Hasleby: Standard stuff, he’s a lock.
Daniel Rich: I’ve been sold on him all preseason. Forkie has been anchored to my #6 DT mid spot from the start.
Mitch Robinson (e): The rising Carlton tide lifts the boats of kids like this one. This year’s Josh Hill.
Liam Anthony: Bah humbug!
Dean Cox (vc): You don’t ruck with your cheekbone.
David Hille: I had Brad Ottens here for a long time, then at one point found enough money to upgrade to Hille and never looked at the starting rucks again. That decision is going to come down to injury luck, and I’m happy despite Ottens’ monster R1 score to have chosen the younger man.
Daniel Currie: This is probably the wrong pick, but I just didn’t like any of the other basement draftee rucks. Hopefully I won’t have to worry about this.
Jake Spencer: More of a chance to get an extended run than Sam Jacobs, I think, though I may be proved wrong.
Matthew Pavlich: Has trimmed down to look more like a midfielder. My concern with him historically has been his proneness to injuries like the hot spots he developed late last year due to the excess muscle on his frame, but this isn’t a problem any more. Freo will need his help all over the ground this year, more than last, so he’s probably the best candidate to be Richo Mk II.
Lance Franklin: I loved his game in the praccy, and despite him spending the vast majority of Friday night in his traditional role inside forward 50, I think in other games he’ll be freed up more to roam the wings. Still has tremendous upside.
Ryan Houlihan: Another rising Blue boat. With discounts so rare this season it’s prudent to make use of them. I expect he’s going to turn into a garbage time gem, and Carlton look to have a fair few more games this season where they’ll be winning comfortably late on.
Shaun Higgins: No-brainer.
Hayden Skipworth: If he survives what now seems like an inevitable wave of Essendon injuries, he’ll be locked into that Bomber midfield and get plenty of cheap ball.
Nathan Krakouer: I’m not hugely confident about this one, but his numbers are too tasty to ignore. His spot may be in jeopardy if Marlon Motlop burns up the SANFL, and I’m still not sure of this mooted role replacing Peter Burgoyne. I’ll be as keen as anyone to see if the fantasy hype is justified on Sunday.
Mitchell Brown: His naming in the forward pocket is a bad sign. The dropping of Ben McKinley for him is a great sign. If he can have the sort of season McKinley had last year, he’ll be startable. With Adam Hunter still ess-tee-ruggling with injury, Brown could very well be used as John Worsfold’s swingman. I bought him expecting him to get halfback ball as a CHB who could run outside. His NAB numbers suggested this role. Exactly what sort of role he plays is still uncertain, but I’ll be watching with interest.
Taylor Walker (e): I finally came around on TW because I couldn’t find anyone else I really liked. Hopefully Brown’s scores will keep him benched.
Wade Thompson: I would have changed this after teams were announced if it had been possible, though I’m not unhappy. Choco loves him.
That’s a structure of 5/2/1/1 – 2/3/1/2 – 2/0/0/2 – 2/4/0/3 = 11/9/2/8. You can check out my team’s live scores by using this link – my team ID is 22633, as you can see, if you want to use me as your head to head opponent for the Exteam feature of FanFooty. So, that’s my squad: snipe away!
pascoe
March 28, 2009 at 12:35 pm
i need bowden to go down back and play cheap footy and i need suban and hill to keep playing. robinson and rich need to play, likewise jacobs and spencer and also mitch brown to play. ablett captain, ottens, stevie j, trav tuck and joel selwood last nite!
dylan
March 28, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Lol Monty u have already jinxed Raines and Anthony
bazza
March 28, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Monty,
I try and keep away from blokes over 30, yes there is the exception, like richo, however it has held me in good stead as generally speaking, they either get soft tissue injuries, ie cousins, lose form, ie bowden, or are overpriced without any real chance of going up in value ie Lloyd. I wldnt have touched bowden with a 10 foot pole!
vesnal
March 28, 2009 at 1:27 pm
nice team
pascoe
March 28, 2009 at 1:46 pm
bowden will play back at some point and will get 100’s just wait
Craig
March 28, 2009 at 2:42 pm
My team (now that it’s all locked out) is kind of similar… I went with the Premium/Rookie structure.
Backs:
Hodge, Fisher, Cornes, Lockyer, Adcock, Raines, Hill (Suban, Petrenko)
Mids:
Ablett, J. Selwood, Gibbs, Foley, Rich, Anthony (Grrrr…switched out Robinson for Anthony on Wednesday) (Otten, Beams)
Rucks:
Cox, Hille (Jacobs, Spencer)
Forwards:
Pavlich, Deledio, S. Johnson, Higgins, Skipworth, Ziebell, M. Brown (Yarran, Walker)
$157k in bank
Things i regret in hindsight: Anthony over Robinson. Otherwise quite happy.
SWB
March 28, 2009 at 3:33 pm
You don’t regret not having Houlihan? Because you will. Other than that its good.
Superfist
March 28, 2009 at 6:22 pm
One negative for the quarterback theory is that the rushed behind rule should decrease the amount of points scored. I don’t have the stats but I would guess that there were around 3 rushed behinds per side per game last year. A lot of the chipping around in the backline starts from point kick ins so less of those should mean less easy points for backs
pascoe
March 28, 2009 at 6:40 pm
my team:
backs: bowden, goddard, cornes, drummond, houlihan, raines, hill (petrenko, suban)
mids: ablett (c), dalziell, j.selwood, c.morton, t.tuck, m.robinson (anthony, rich)
rucks: ottens, mcintosh (jacobs, spencer)
forwards: richo, giansiracusa, johnson, t.cloke, j.riewoldt, s. higgins, h.skipworth (m.brown, 4. schoenmakers)
what do u all think?
pascoe
March 28, 2009 at 6:40 pm
that steve johnson
Brett
March 28, 2009 at 6:41 pm
yeah pavlich injury prone, 163 games in a row before the hot spot in his foot ended that run after round 19 last year. very injury prone, that stopped me from picking him this year. NOT!!!
Brett
March 28, 2009 at 6:46 pm
travis cloke goes missing for large parts of games, could have picked better there. drummond is a big injury risk, bowden looked slow at times on thursday night
Craig
March 28, 2009 at 10:16 pm
yeah i might switch raines for houlihan… :S
Disco (UK)
March 29, 2009 at 1:16 am
i guess u want us to analyse it…
Hodge – should’ve taken Molly’s advice on the coaches box and picked him up later on. Should be good eventually.
Bowden – bad call. i presume you were rushed into this decision.
Tuck – good one, hope it pays off.
Disco (UK)
March 29, 2009 at 1:19 am
…there’s a reason why the Bowden role is now called the Hodge roll, coz Bowden no longer plays it. Expect him to be the scapegoat (again) when Wallace feels the heat on his job.
mooses
March 29, 2009 at 3:01 am
disco, you still in expat dt league?
Get used to coming in second tiger
lets get it on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Homer Thompson
March 29, 2009 at 10:34 am
i reckon monty will finish outside the top 10000.
PlayEr
March 29, 2009 at 10:41 am
Wow!
I can’t believe how similar my team is to yours Monty.
Got all your fwds except for houlihan.
Ruck got Cox. Def and mid got 2/3 of them. Took Tuck out night before, probably big mistake as Reilly was disappointing on w/e.
With that said, a lot of teams could be very similar this year.
Disco (UK)
March 29, 2009 at 11:25 am
Hey moose, absolutely. The pressure is on you then!
Jimmy
March 29, 2009 at 12:13 pm
CAPTAIN ABLETT – 324, All those who said his price would come down hahaha.
rhett
March 30, 2009 at 12:10 pm
cox will decrease in value big time by round 4 or 5 hopefully
Orba
March 30, 2009 at 12:48 pm
I Didnt like Pavlich in the midfield at all. Key to pavs big scores is his marking and goal kicking. He had 1 of each last night. The times he did go up forward was to rest and he was buggered and being outlead by mcpharlin. When he does win the footy in the mid he is impossible NOT to tackle due to his size, and gets of a doggy handball, which i can see him being pinged for quiet a few times throughout the season. If everyone is thinking Richo part2 (like i was) then we need to hope harvey moves him out the middle and onto a wing.
Thoughts?
L. Gilbee
March 30, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Pav needs a good haircut.
Raf
March 30, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Thankd for cursing Raines, Anthony and Hodge for us all, monty.
I’ll mock you on Bowden. Goddard is fine. But then, I refuse to pick Bowden every year on the basis he’s a hack and it won’t last and they’ll drop him and make him accountable, and in the first half of last year I thought it was finally coming true…. but this is the year! Really!
Re; Geelong midfielders, it’s a long season. Of the group, I made a late change of Corey for Selwood so I could upgrade others, and I’m still happy enough with that, I don’t think the difference between Selwood and ABC is going to be 80k by the end of the season. There’s still every chance Bartel will be better for you than Ablett.
Hille: McIntosh was the go, dude.
Pav: I have him too, and now I’m worried that Harvey’s “let’s play everyone out of position” game plan is going to screw him up.
Krakouer: I never really got behind this. Port have too many quality ball users to want to channel too much stuff through Krakouer. Sweeping is one thing, but to rack up scores on half back you need to be the guy they all chip soft marks to, and he’s not that guy.
j0rdan...
March 30, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Im beating rupert in dream team coz i got ablett and he got bartel. Its as easy as that
Rupert
March 30, 2009 at 3:04 pm
flowering cheat
Bomber
March 30, 2009 at 6:14 pm
I got 2315. Not too bad for the first week considering Pav, Hodge, Cornes and Hille all let me down. How did others score?
HUEY
March 30, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Bomber, How did you score 2315 points in dream team? If the guy ranked 1 only scored 2269?
awesomeness
March 30, 2009 at 8:11 pm
does anyone know when heath shaw is back, i noe hes injured but for how long? also i noe its too late but would it have been better to go for gilby instead of him?
Haryscary
March 30, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Curious Monty – What did your team score this round?
Muppet Executioner
March 30, 2009 at 9:18 pm
Thank christ Mackie got off, as I have a Raines situation to deal with and the high possiblity of Bowden playing in front of 500 people R2.
tom
March 30, 2009 at 9:55 pm
hahahaha rupert and jord!!!
jord ruined the spirit of the game this year
pim fortuyn
March 31, 2009 at 11:44 am
i) sideways trade Anthony to Robinson or beams?
ii) or keep him?
Marc
March 31, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Bowden trained with our forwards all preseason, expect much of the same from him. How did you miss this Monty? He wont be playing the quarterback position much, if at all.
rhett
March 31, 2009 at 5:21 pm
sideways trade anthony to dangerfield
craig
March 31, 2009 at 6:14 pm
sideways trade anthony to cousins people 😛
also, how is cousins in the “most popular” dt players…. bahahahaha 45,000 idiots.