Dean Laidley is one of many coaches who love to sabotage fantasy hopes by dropping kids too early.
We’ve all been there. 2007 was one example: Lachie Hansen had just had an excellent NAB Cup, he was named in the Kangaroos team for round 1, then… two paltry Dream Team scores of 21 in each of the first two games with painfully limited time on ground (TOG), then shipped back to the VFL until after the 2007 finals series had started. Or you could take 2008: Scott D. Thompson had solid outings in the NAB series, named for round 1, then… dropped after one DT score of 37 with limited TOG, then not seen again until rounds 6 and 7, and then dropped again until a fourth and last game in round 21.
Is it any wonder that we call North Melbourne coach Dean Laidley the Fantasy Antichrist?
This year we have a new crop of rookies, and Laidley isn’t the only one we need to worry about. Dean Bailey at Melbourne and Neil Craig at Adelaide are both offering us tasty rookie treats, but I suspect we’re being fattened up for the cooking pot, if not the fiery depths of some lower hell. Heck, even at Hawthorn I am not putting any faith in Alistair Clarkson to commit to youth like he did at the start of 2008 with Cyril Rioli, Cameron Stokes and Jarryd Morton. Here’s some kids I am becoming increasingly wary of.
Nathan Grima – North fans all seem to think he’s a lock for the round 1 side, if not for the majority of the year. I remain unconvinced that he’s even in the team until I see Laidley put his name down on the official teamsheet on Thursday night. Even then, Grima’s place seems to be predicated on a long-foreshadowed move of Michael Firrito into the midfield, and I don’t trust that either. You just know that the worst case scenario is that Grima starts getting beaten early, Zac Dawson style, so that Firrito has to occupy the goalsquare to rescue the situation, and Grima will leave grime all over our back benches.
Liam Anthony – The fact that Laidley has been talking him up in the press makes me even more fearful than if he had been shutting up about him. This smacks to me of a typical Laidley stunt. Of course he has to talk up his kids, North needs more members desperately so they’re forced to wheel out the coach to give the fans some hope. Whether this translates into a consistent run of selection in the first eight games is an entirely different matter. It’s the Fantasy Antichrist, you sinners! Make the sign of the cross and repent!
Jack Ziebell – Anyone who is starting Jay-Z in round 1 has to have cojones of steel. You just know he’s going to be named in the extended bench for the Sunday game for promotional purposes, no matter whether Laidley intends to play him or not, so you will have exactly zero idea if he’s going to play or not. If your forward bench emergency is someone like Scott Gumbleton, Wade Thompson or Neville Jetta you could be setting yourself up for a zero without any assurances. Just remember Jay-Z’s sage Dream Team advice: “99 problems, but a bench ain’t one.”
Jared Petrenko – He has become wildly popular as an 8th or 9th fantasy back, and the news today that Graham Johncock will miss round 1 due to a family bereavement will lock Petrenko into the round 1 Crows team. Consider this, however: Petrenko’s spot is either in the forward line in place of Jason Porplyzia (if Jarrhan Jacky is not used there) or in the back line instead of Brad Symes. Porps is due back by round 2 or 3, while Symes is due a week or two after that. With Neil Craig’s historical thriftiness with rookie TOG, can we expect Petrenko to earn enough coin in a maximum of five weeks to justify buying him? Of course you could get lucky, as owners of Bernie Vince did last year when a rash of injuries gave him far more TOG than Craig would have liked to allow. It’s a big risk nonetheless.
Andy Otten – Yes, his preseason numbers have been excellent. “Demands selection”, they say. Like Petrenko, however, Otten could be squeezed out early by returning senior players, particularly the aforementioned Symes. Last year was an aberration with Vince, Porplyzia and David Mackay all representing excellent rookie value. The norm with Neil Craig sides is to stay away from their kids. Without evidence of another injury glut down at Westlakes, you have to look at Otten’s price premium over a Dayne Beams or Mitch Robinson with a hard eye.
Kyle Cheney – Another kid who, while he may very well play the first couple of rounds, doesn’t have any assurances after that. His spot in the Demons 22 is reserved for Matthew Whelan, who could return from his calf injury as early as round 2. Be warned.
Brendan Whitecross – A solid last outing on a half-back flank in the NAB series has him penciled in for the round 1 Hawks team. Unfortunately, he may not last past the return of Rick Ladson, currently scheduled for somewhere between rounds 2 and 5. Best case scenario is that he is eventually replaced by Xavier Ellis some time around round 6. His place in the Hawthorn 22 is most at risk.
I’m pretty sure that I’ve just named at least two of your squad of 30 in Dream Team and Super Coach, if not three or four. How worried are you about these players being dropped in the first six rounds before the usual cash cow culling cut-off point? Are you choosing safer, more boring options like Mitchell Brown or (shudder) Zac Dawson to sacrifice upside for selection consistency? Tell me in the comments.
Disco (UK)
March 23, 2009 at 3:00 pm
are there any other rookies aside from suban broughton and petroltanko?
Andy
March 23, 2009 at 3:00 pm
I’ve got both the Kanga boys Ziebell and Anthony… crazy right? I have Mitch Robinson on my bench so will get a good idea whether he will play to cover Anthony, and I have Mitch Brown benching it to cover Ziebell. I think that’ll be safe enough right?
value
March 23, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Monty your giving us plenty of advice as to which rookies are not likely to do well and which ones wont play….which is scaring the s**t out of us
how about some advice on the rookies that are likely yo get consistent games and to do well…please haha
Jesse
March 23, 2009 at 3:05 pm
ROOS are going to win the premiership this year
Ziebell for brownlow
everyone knows it
monty hawks are poo
Shagz
March 23, 2009 at 3:07 pm
I’ve got Petrenko, Otten, Anthony and Ziebell..
This article hasn’t done anything to boost my DT confidence!
korza
March 23, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Great article Monty
Those devils Laidley Bailey,and Craig,they are the ones we gamble with not the rookies.Presuming i have Zeibell, petrenko and Cheyney as starters in my team, names we are all now familiar with.If these 3 cronies tease us with thier extended benches, and god behold they were to be late exclusions,you can kiss mine and most D/T coaches chances goodbye.BASICALLY stay way clear from these 3 devils.
jeremy
March 23, 2009 at 3:11 pm
I am a sinner and have broken the Laidley rule. I have Ziebell playing because I do not know who else to put as #7 forward. However, I am too scared to have Anthony as well, so I have gone Rich and Robinson on the centre bench. I saw the kid play and unlike other years, NM have not had such a talented kid as ready as Ziebell to play round 1. I have Gummby on the bench, which is only based on a cheap option, and Yarran who is my emergency. I think between Yarran and Ziebell, I should be safe for at least the first couple of weeks to field a forward line. Does anyone have any better forward options in mind?
jeremy
March 23, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I know this is a little unrelated, but being at rookie price, with J Grimes from Melbourne injured, who will take his place? What’s Petterd’s chances of playing round 1, and/or the rest of the year?
Chad
March 23, 2009 at 3:20 pm
hahaha awesome work in the photo editing 🙂
Juice box
March 23, 2009 at 3:26 pm
A very interesting post Mr. M. I’d be interested to hear more from people about Wade Thompson’s spot and his credibility
Rorschach
March 23, 2009 at 4:01 pm
isnt gumby injured??
James
March 23, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Ziebell’s probably the riskiest starter since the McPrawn Cocktail. Better to start Hentschel for $4k more but a guaranteed place.
Ash
March 23, 2009 at 4:14 pm
i have ziebell, anthony, petrenko on my bench, pretty confident
GoodesStuff
March 23, 2009 at 4:20 pm
have only got petrenko on that list haha- yes more boring options like Mitch Brown
ryab
March 23, 2009 at 4:33 pm
does anyone else think that taylor walker is a safer option than hentschel. or is it just me. i cant bring myself to take the risk on hentschel.
dylan
March 23, 2009 at 4:47 pm
u sure porp is that far off playing monty? according to the people on bigfooty he finished with 20 touches 1 goal in the sanfl.
jimmy
March 23, 2009 at 4:54 pm
Monty that jay-z reference is the funniest thing ive ever heard.
Brendan
March 23, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Jeez monty you have put on the afterburners in the last two days. Good stuff!
J-Mac
March 23, 2009 at 5:47 pm
I’m pretty sure porps could be right to go in Rd 1, from what I’ve heard from the Bloods players I know he played very well, got belted around but felt fine after the match.
Just what they told me though
Big Jim
March 23, 2009 at 5:49 pm
It’s Monday afternoon. I have had a long and tiring day, and think it’s time to treat myself to a break with a little FanFooty. And what do I get? Headaches about my bench all over the f-ing field. Thanks a lot, Monty 🙂
XztatiK
March 23, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Lol at the Jay-Z jokes, hope that nickname catches on!
krabzy
March 23, 2009 at 6:16 pm
What about when Laidley played Matt Riggio for the opening two rounds of 07 and then dropped him for the remainder of the season? He did teach me a valuable lesson though – how important your ninth defeder is not.
I’m surprised you didn’t mention Freo at all. Mark Harvey doesn’t exactly have a good record either. He started R1 without Palmer last year, then played funny buggers with him at the end of the year. Now there’s a trio of Freo first year defenders that everyone is picking, all while Harvey is supposedly moving Gilmore, Hasleby and Tarrant into the backline.
Freo’s my tip for the spoon, mostly because I think Harvey’s completely bonkers. I don’t trust him at all with my fantasy players either.
jimmy
March 23, 2009 at 6:28 pm
I think sometimes people go a bit far with the “Laidley not playing kids theory” Thompson and Hansen are both key position players and as we know, along with ruckmen, they take more time to develop than smaller midfield types that are ready-made. I am very confident with Anthony in my team and the only reason i dont have Ziebell is because he is 40,000 more than a based-price rookie
Pete
March 23, 2009 at 6:50 pm
how does everybody rate beams vs robinson vs anthony for an 8th midfielder behind rich? atm im sitting with beams but may change to robinson if robinson’s named to debut rd 1 and beams isn’t. don’t really want to take the risk with anthony on the kangas extended bench…
Heater
March 23, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Just when I thought my team was settled up pops Monty with another literary gem!
Charlie
March 23, 2009 at 7:09 pm
@ Pete. (and others, if they believe my nonsense). Whichever bench rookies you go with, play out a ‘what-if’ in your head pre-Thursday night teams. ie. If you pick Beams, what will will you do if he isn’t selected but Robinson is? etc.
But think deeply, beyond round 1 – Beams looks set to get his share of games this year, just not sure when. But Robinson is a decent chance to be picked Rd 1 given the Blues have 3-4 senior players out for a week or 3. So does a round 1 start for Robinson mean much? Enough to change your team? Base picks like this around the larger variables, not just this week’s team sheets.
Driver
March 23, 2009 at 7:16 pm
I think the best rookies have been named. If these guys cant get a game i doubt that any rookie can.
Besides maybe hurley – Hill (both commanding a big premium)i doubt there will be any rookie backs playing for reasonable amount of matches.
cody
March 23, 2009 at 7:18 pm
great Jay-Z reference 🙂
Petrenko will be straight out the side as soon as Porp (likely to play round 1) and Symes (likely to be back by round 3) are back in the team. Leaving him hanging on 2 games not even squeezing out some valuable cash cow goodness.
Other Dan
March 23, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Are you trying to depress me Monty and make me lose sleep? First you mention Hentschel in the most over-rated players and now you’re telling me that my rookies won’t play (or will and it will be brief)…
At least you didn’t mention Stephen Hill. Hang on didn’t Harvey not play Palmer in Rd 1 last year… oh no…
pascoe
March 23, 2009 at 8:20 pm
ouch, i have a lot of those players.
anyway 926548 is my new league. me and my mate are good dream teamers averaging around 1900 a week last year and are looking for 14 quality people to join us in our search to be the most competitive league. please join if you think you are capable of scoring well. Thanks all
Bone
March 23, 2009 at 8:21 pm
Porplyzia will play Round 1 and so will Rutten. Van Berlo will be back R2 for sure and Symes soon after. That’s four senior players which demand selection – select Crows rookies at your peril!
JMAC
March 23, 2009 at 8:30 pm
Just remember Jay-Z’s sage Dream Team advice: “99 problems, but a bench ain’t one.â€
Awesome stuff haha.
Pete
March 23, 2009 at 8:33 pm
Cheers charlie, yeah thats when the guessing game comes into play.
Ads
March 23, 2009 at 11:04 pm
Jay-Z – 99 problems….champagne humour
Nick
March 23, 2009 at 11:17 pm
Andy Otten will still play though as he is taking Bassets spot who isnt about to pop out of retirement!!
54Dogs
March 23, 2009 at 11:19 pm
Ratten’s record last year was worse than any. Pfieffer, Edwards, Hartlett (admittedly susp), Hampson, Armfield, Anderson all played for a couple and got dumped. Hardly envokes confidence in Robinson, Garlett, Yarren or Jacobs getting consistent games.
listingbadly
March 24, 2009 at 8:26 am
Just heard Bomber T on SEN say that Simon Hogan will get 15 games this year at least. Given the way that the cats flick the ball around that is good enough for me. espcially if he is named on wednesday
Orba
March 24, 2009 at 8:32 am
I think every possible rookie has been in and out of my side over the past month!! Thanks a lot monty for dragging this all up again.
The only rookie i now have any confidence in is hill but being a collingwood supporter beams will play and play a lot. Dont expect malthouse to bring him out to under a 60k size crowd though. When he bloods a kid he does it in style. Throws them into an anzac or queens birthday match and sees what they have with all eyes watching.
Brad
March 24, 2009 at 8:47 am
One word answers:
Dal Santo or Selwood?
korza
March 24, 2009 at 9:25 am
Based on Monty’s read,and some of the more astute comments,culling season will begin at round 4.So get out your shot guns and start cleaning the barrel,this is going to be a blood bath.
hamish
March 24, 2009 at 9:36 am
Dal Santo is in ripper form and this is his year, strong chance for the brownlow
Bomber
March 24, 2009 at 9:36 am
No question Brad – Selwood. Big Dal is clearly no going to get any better whilst Selwood is most definately on the way up whilst also being cheaper than Selwood.
Dal Santo doesn’t know the meaning of a hard ball either – like most of his team mates. No heart!
Bomber
March 24, 2009 at 9:39 am
On another note I heard Neil Craig on 927 this morning and he singled out Taylor Walker as the most impressive and from that interview I think out of all of them (Petrenko, Otten, Cook and Sloane) he would play most this year. Similar to Tippet last year I reckon.
Brad
March 24, 2009 at 9:47 am
Bomber and Hamish, thanks for helping me settlethat one..things are much clearer now…lol
Good news on Tex as well Bomber.
He is a cult figure in Adelaide already without even playing a H&A game yet!!
Bomber
March 24, 2009 at 10:02 am
One questions – pick 2 out of Thompson, Walker and Hogan for forward line bench players?
Brad
March 24, 2009 at 10:14 am
I would think Thompson and Walker out of those 3 options, Walker is a certainty and elevated players are elevated for a reason, i am not convinced that Hogan will get any games early on.
Do you already have Brown from West Coast on your bench??
lovepelican
March 24, 2009 at 10:29 am
Has anybody heard anything about Yarran? According to the West (not very reliable) he won’t be playing against Richmond. I suppose we’ll get to see on Wednesday if he is named, but has anyone heard anything?
Brad
March 24, 2009 at 10:39 am
Lovepelican,
According to The Herald Sun today Yarran will spend several weeks in the VFL before making his debut.
Jake
March 24, 2009 at 11:08 am
Ha ha @ Bomber saying no StKilda guys have heart. I would think Ball, Hayes and Riewoldt just for a start may prove that theory incorrect.
Brad
March 24, 2009 at 11:19 am
G’day Jake,
What do you think about Dal Santo v Selwood?
I have absolutely no doubt Selwood is going to be a GUN and in my opion go past ABC, if not this year but next, but i still think his starting price is very very high for a 20 year old who is surrounded by the Cats current guns.