Those looking to trade Hayden Skipworth this week could do worse than the reigning Coleman Medalist.
A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Super Coach. I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.
Big Dippers
There are some teams in the AFL that it seems to the impartial observer are so simple to work out that it’s mystifying that more AFL coaches don’t catch on. For years now, the way to stop St Kilda has been to sit on Nick Dal Santo. Lo and behold, NDS has somehow escaped a hard tag in all four games so far this season, leading to four wins for the Saints. Similarly, Brent Harvey has copped a particularly hard tag in his first four games of 2009, with Clint Bartram, Liam Picken and Garry Moss completely sacrificing their own games to stop the little champ, leading to two losses for North and a close win over the otherwise hapless Demons (the Richmond result this week notwithstanding). Against Essendon, it looked like it was more of the same in the first quarter, with Henry Slattery doing the job. There are two questions out of what happened next. First, why did Essendon shift Slattery off Harvey and move Brent Stanton on him to go head to head, allowing Harvey to set up the Kangaroo win? And second, was Harvey always going to have a good day given that he was sitting on 44 DT points at quarter time despite Slattery’s tag, or was it just that Essendon didn’t have a tagger good enough to go with him? When asked about it on Monday night on the On The Grouch (whoops, Couch) program, James Hird couldn’t think of who the Bombers’ tagger would have been, which is an indication of how far Slattery is down the Essendon depth chart for tagging behind Andrew Welsh, Heath Hocking, Sam Lonergan and even Angus Monfries, with Monfries the only one playing in the game. North has Richmond and Collingwood in the next two weeks, so you’d expect Boomer to get players like Daniel Jackson and Marty Clarke, with Port’s Kane Cornes and Geelong full-field press (minus Cameron Ling, admittedly) after that. Personally, I’m bearish on Boomer, because I remember Shannon Grant‘s precipitous drop in his last year and am wary about older Kangaroos. While this is a year that small forwards are looking more likely to fill out the top 7 fantasy scorers, I’m not so sure that Harvey will end up there.
I am bullish, however, on a couple of Hawk players. Lance Franklin is still leading the Coleman despite Hawthorn’s early season woes, and he chopped against Eric Mackenzie in the preseason so I expect him to do the same this week. If you can upgrade Hayden Skipworth straight to Buddy with cash you have lying around, I reckon do it this week, because he’s every chance to bust through his breakevens of 119/150. Similarly, Luke Hodge has had some weeks to forget, including this week when he struggled under the tag of Tom Logan and got posterised with a mark of the year contender taken on his shoulders. The Eagles will set up the cluster this week like they did against the Power and Dogs at Subiaco to great effect, but Hodgey owns York Park and he’s more than experienced at handling zones down there – witness last year’s game against the Lions. Then in round 6 he’s got the Blues, who are traditionally his bitches. With breakevens of 126/135 it may be a week too early to buy him right now, but make your plans for next week if you can.
Loop De Loop
Obviously, everyone is wondering what to do about Hayden Skipworth. With averages in the mid-80s, trending down, and breakevens of 64/45, Skippy’s days of earning decent coin every time he hops onto the field might be done, and the profits of $54,000 in DT and $86,600 in SC that you’ve already got might be the best he can do. The other big question here is about Mitch Robinson. With fantasy scores dropping like a stone and breakevens of 50/42, the kid with the mouth faster than his legs is going to have to fight off Chris Yarran for his spot in the Carlton 22 this week even before he’s allowed to face the Bulldogs.
I think Skippy’s more of a worry in DT, and as I said in the Bubble column today, you should be looking at replacing him with a rookie in the next week or two. For SC, it may be worth the wait. Meanwhile, Robinson is a big concern in both comps. Ideally you’d replace him with Hamish Hartlett but that doesn’t reap you much cash at all, and buying Steele Sidebottom wouldn’t be much better for your kitty. If he survives the selection table cut this week, I think you’ll just have to hope for a nice, open game against the Doggies at Docklands with a few cheapies to keep the cash cow milking.
I am already hearing some strange names being thrown up on the forums and comment threads for people who you lot have on the chopping block. Paul Hasleby is one name I’ve heard is dispatches, which seems crazy to me as I reckon the Purple Hase is just warming up. Troy Simmonds and David Hille are causing a lot of angst out there, but you bought them as keepers so I think you have to suck up their slow starts. As for trade-in targets, I think it’s safe to give Nick Riewoldt, Daniel Giansiracusa and Matthew Pavlich another week to drop further, given their still-large breakevens.
How about you lot, who are you eyeing off as your Skippy replacement (if anyone)? Do you think Robbo has hit the rookie wall? Are the Hawk premiums going to bounce back this week in Launceston against the long-traveling Eagles? Is Boomer really back? Tell me in the comments.
Donk
April 22, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Doesn’t Nick Riewoldt have a breakeven of around 80-90 in DT?
CyclopZ
April 22, 2009 at 4:46 pm
m0nty – Im really leaning towards taking Krakour to be honest…. I have Ziebell playing , Brown and Walker on the bench but im looking to make a move for a big fish by around round 7 or 8…. we will see. Krakour has a good break even and looks like a bit of a ball magnet who disposes of it quite well and he will grown in price – that is 2 upsides for me. Skipworth – i feel will not be able to offer to much worth i feel so im going to burn trade number 16 to get rid of him….. Hopefully with the next few weeks T Tuck will make me some dough in the centre and my rookes will have made a bit more money and then i will be changing my forward line and centre to include 2 premiums….. pretty much Ablett Jnr (Who i did not pick up in the first place) and a good premium forward to go with my other under performing premiums (Lids, O’Keefe, Pav, Franklin). Thats my initial thoughts anyway….. what do you think? Pulling the trigger to early?
James
April 22, 2009 at 4:46 pm
I went….
Raines>Broughton
Skipworth>Brent Harvey
…Between Skippy/Kraks/Higgins….one was always going to go, Skipworth wouldve gone anyway, just made my decision easier. Thanks for some good points and the cash skippy.
mEnty
April 22, 2009 at 4:49 pm
Monty, DT wise…Riewoldt went up in price this week and will most likely go up again next week.
Harvey is hard to decide. I’d really like another look at him before but barring a terrible score his price will go up this week.
Nice to have a few fresh blogs up Monty. Cheers.
mEnty
April 22, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Monty, I asked this last week and didn’t hear a response. But are you sure that your breakeven calculators are working correctly?
I suspect that your formula or database might not be working correctly…last week you had Riewoldts breakeven at 131, he scored 114…and went up in price.
Orbs
April 22, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Good right up Monty.
Dont have skippy so not too concerned about that one. On the robinson one though surely the kid has ran his race atleast for the time being.
With Heath Scotland and Andrew Carazzo waiting in the wings, i reckon he will be taken out this week…OR maybe im just saying that because i am one of the few idiots who selected Scotland.
m0nty
April 22, 2009 at 5:15 pm
The breakeven calculator is only ever a rough indicator. You don’t know what the magic number for the week is going to be until you have all scores for the week at hand.
Spot the Dog
April 22, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Strongly Considering a double trade:
Daniel Wells OUT
Hamish Hartlett IN
Hayden Skipworth OUT
The Voldt IN.
Nets about 50k profit in DT.
Think i’m going to leave it for next week though – have Beams on the field with Wells out, and Mitch Clark (WCE) on the field for Skippy’s hammy, so I think i’m fine with that for this week…
Opinions?
mEnty
April 22, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Granted Monty, but wouldn’t a difference in calculated BE to actual BE of 25 points indicate an error?
mEnty
April 22, 2009 at 5:26 pm
p.s. not having a go at you Monty. Appreciate your hard work.
Woofta
April 22, 2009 at 5:29 pm
On Harvey,the first 3 rds he played more as a small foward (in an effort to prolong his career? )With Wells out last wk he had more of a mid role.Never liked him for DT and still dont.
On Hodge,also look at Mackie who should be freed up more once Harley returns in 1 or 2 wks.
carnas
April 22, 2009 at 5:31 pm
yeah skippy for buddy & wait & see the teams for robinson i think. is sanderlands likly to improve & reach 100 this yr??
pascoe
April 22, 2009 at 5:33 pm
i am doing this week skippy for taylor walker and then i already have 64, 800 in my bank so i will go to around 164,000 and then upgrade either cale morton or travis tuck anywhere in the next 4 weeks to jimmy bartel. i will trade when bartels price is right and will pick him up when he will rise again. definetely not this week
Ev
April 22, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Next week i’ll be doing a double trade:
Skipworth out, Riewoldt in (I was thinking Harvey, but I dont like your report monty!)
I’m funding that move with my bank and a sell. I’m looking at Cheney, or even piss S. Hill off.
Any opinions on Broughton guys? Is he a stayer when he comes back?
I don’t have Robbo, and my back line bench is weak.
makingmemark
April 22, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Holding onto Skippy for now. No obvious downgrade target and not enough cash for upgrade.
I don’t think Robbo has hit the rookie wall yet m0nty. Fingers crossed he’ll get another game and I believe he can replicate his Rd1 performance.
And yes, BOOMER is back!
m0nty
April 22, 2009 at 5:36 pm
mEnty, I don’t know when you read that Riewoldt’s BE was 133 after round 2, because my records are different. In the New Prices page after the R2 game I had it as 90:
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/game/newprices.php?id=3209
And in the Breakevens page I had it as 90.
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/game/breakevens.php?id=3218
You may have seen a version of that page in transition as I was updating some databases. The formula is not fundamentally wrong, though.
Ev
April 22, 2009 at 5:37 pm
What’s Riewoldt’s breakeven in SC? Is it really that high? I know you cant be exact, but what sort of figures are we talking?
I’d love him to drop closer to Harvey’s price ($520k)
Richo
April 22, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Does anybody think this is a viable option
Skipworth OUT
W.Thompson/Sidebottom IN
Hill/Suban OUT
Hurley/Dawson/Rance IN
T.Tuck OUT
G.Ablett IN
and do you think it is worth getting rid of pavlich or just keep him and wait for him to come good. I don’t want to be waiting another 6 rounds.
Chad
April 22, 2009 at 5:56 pm
“If you can upgrade Hayden Skipworth straight to Buddy with cash you have lying around, I reckon do it this week, because he’s every chance to bust through his breakevens of 119/150”
“I think Skippy’s more of a worry in DT, and as I said in the Bubble column today, you should be looking at replacing him with a rookie in the next week or two.”
Glad i am not the only one a little undecided 🙂
TRS
April 22, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Wouldn’t be surprised if the current Rising Star nominee in Jaxson Barham gets Boomer Harvey next week. He’s already as good a tagging prospect as we have, and he’s about as quick as anyone in the league.
Woofta
April 22, 2009 at 6:00 pm
Monty,on tonights show could you and Molly comment on M.Clark,Brisbane.Has a DT ave of 79 this year if you exclude the game he was injured.(current BE of 8 )Prospect of being main ruckman appeals,is also a FWD.
Richo
April 22, 2009 at 6:08 pm
anybody????
m0nty
April 22, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Richo: if you can manage three trades in one week, good luck to you. 😀
Charlie
April 22, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Richo – all those trades look bad.
Skipworth OUT
W.Thompson/Sidebottom IN
(Thompson is a no-go, wait for Steele to have 2 games first)
Hill/Suban OUT
Hurley/Dawson/Rance IN
(Does this trade really need to be done? Maybe if both Freo players are dropped, maybe when Hurley’s back. Rance is already too late.)
T.Tuck OUT
G.Ablett IN
Tuck still has upside. Don’t force a trade just because you want Ablett after a 150. Ablett buyers really need to wait 3 weeks now for that 150 to drop off. You made a mistake not getting Ablett day 1. Don’t turn it into 2 mistakes by forcing a trade now.
Don’t sell Pav.
Woofta
April 22, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Heard on 3AW Mitchell may be out this wk.
noffle
April 22, 2009 at 6:33 pm
Didn’t Mitch Brown play on Buddy preseason?
juice
April 22, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Charlie, whilst Tuck has an upside the question is can he play more than 2 games in a row?
Would not trade Tuck to GB in DT, but would consider it in SC, GB has a break even of 104.
juice
April 22, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Read GA %@#5#$#@
Disco (UK)
April 22, 2009 at 7:09 pm
I’m certain to pull the trigger next week. Hope we don’t have 8 rookies peaking in the same week!!
SWB
April 22, 2009 at 7:11 pm
@noffle
No Mckenzie did
Why not solve the robbo and the skippy problems by dropping robbo to collins/barham and upgrading skippy to buddy/gian/roo/pav etc.
Solve’s the 2 main issues everyone seems to have in 1 fell swoop?
Jonny
April 22, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Andrew Raines is listed as a ‘test’ this week, could he play?
Disco (UK)
April 22, 2009 at 7:27 pm
Looking at the Hawks fixture, I think they could win at least 5 in a row, which would be good for Hodge and Buddy’s scores.
@Jonny – Raines will probably play a game or 2 in the VFL.
Jonny
April 22, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Cheers Disco..
Does anyone know Sam Gilbert and Nick Riewoldt’s SC Breakeven’s this week?
Richo
April 22, 2009 at 7:28 pm
@ Monty >:| lol
@ Charlie. Thanks for the advice might wait 3-4 weeks wait for ablett to go up and just make a double trade to get ablett in, he is really hurting me in overall standings and leagues. I’m ranked around 3200.
I still have 18 trades left and will probably have the same amount after the week is out.
Ev
April 22, 2009 at 7:59 pm
I’m actually glad for the skipworth problem – it gives me the excuse to solve my backline hole (cheney and hill and hurley, ugh) – and then bring in a gun forward.
j drummo
April 22, 2009 at 8:01 pm
i was considering going (SC):
skippy to ziebell, which will give me 208k in kitty (i have 116k atm)
I have always planned to get sidebottom, so if he is named should i trade him in for skip? i would be i big risk to bring in a player who hasnt played a game yet. But I could wait another week tho, as i have walker on bench.
I am also planning to trade hill to broughton next week, which will only allow me 1 other trade, if i need it. If i trade skip for s-b this week, i can have a 300k upgrade next week (aswell as hill to broughton).
What should i do?
korza 378th
April 22, 2009 at 8:19 pm
@ All the Monty lovers
Cop that you soft richards,after severe back lashes from frustrated info seeking members from this site,we have received 2 cracker blogs in a row.
As Barrasi famously once said “you give me stats and i’ll shut up”
Well all those not so happy chappys shut the f..k up.
Motts
April 22, 2009 at 8:29 pm
Has anybody wondered why Chris Yarran hasn’t played a game for the Blues yet? I’m hearing that he is facing serious assault charges in WA. It looks like he’s going to do time.
Ropes
April 22, 2009 at 8:50 pm
Riewoldts B/E in SC is 83ish….
At Port, in the wet (maybe) he may just get there.
My question is Malceski, hold on as he is playing Freo or let him go? If he goes, Skippy becomes Riewoldt….
dylan
April 22, 2009 at 8:54 pm
m0nty/everyone else just wondering who you would pick for skippys upgrade if you could chose anyone. I got deledio,didak and davis as my most expensive in the forward so i can take a shot at whoever else i want to.
im leaning towards B.Harvey,Riewoldt or Franklin. Who would you guys chose? any of those 3 or someone else?
jimmyk
April 22, 2009 at 9:27 pm
guys major complicated dilemma for my SC team, leunberger was 2nd ruck and skippy in mids….(its my first year i know lol)
option 1: was gonna dwngrade skippy for barham and trade luey for cox IF and thats a big IF cox could make it down to 520,000 (but he has a big breakeven this week so its possible) which uses two trades..
option 2: or i could straight swap luey for sandilands after this week! which only uses the one trade… keeping in mind i already have pavlich,haselby and broughton
which would u choose??
clearly im a novice so help would be awesome
jim
Stu
April 22, 2009 at 9:37 pm
@ Motts, where did you hear that? from a reliable source?
Matt
April 22, 2009 at 9:49 pm
Does anyone know Deledio and Harvey’s BE SC score are?
Spydko
April 22, 2009 at 9:52 pm
Should I be worried you just mentioned a quarter of my team
Hille
Boomer
Skipworth
Robinson
Hodge
Pierce (Environment) Brosnan
April 22, 2009 at 10:00 pm
To all those trigger happy people out there (myself included) I would not be trading Mitch Robinson out this week regardless of whether he plays or not. Another week to size up Hartlett v Barham v any other rookie that decides to go nuts can not be undervalued.
Also, if you’re like me and fall agonisingly short of upgrading Skippy to a premium forward I would look to culling Sam Jacobs to possibly Meesen to make $40k, especially if your 4th ruck is Spencer. Surely one of either Meesen/Spencer will get a game all year long? I’m not convinced that Jacobs will reach his break even past this week.
Thoughts on Meesen, especially any Dees supporters.
Hoops
April 22, 2009 at 10:21 pm
Monty,
Just a quick suggestion in terms of website design. This format doesn’t really work as everyone is asking questions about their teams & trade options and few are responding to them.
Would it be possible to put a ‘thumbs up’ & ‘thumbs down’ icon to right of each response with a counter of some sort so people can give the poster some feedback without having to actually type up a response??? (Check out the Youtube comment rating mechanism to see what I am talking about)
P.s. Love your work!
benno
April 22, 2009 at 10:35 pm
yeah i ain’t bitchin’ cause while it has been a while, now monty blogs again it is masterful. not necessarily right about everything, but great to read.
yes, the hawks will bounce back, but lewis looks real slow. yes, boomer is back. and it’s a top point that nick dal santo will have a tough time from now on v smart teams.
as for yarran, he’s in trouble. listen to the carlton fan boards and they’ll say it’s because he doesn’t tackle very hard. skilful player though, check him on youtube.
as for me, my hurt for skips is countered by tippett’s form. watch him go.
benno
April 22, 2009 at 10:37 pm
ps hoops
don’t worry about the format. who cares about rating posts? not me.
all these rhetorical questions (should i xxx for yyy)just don’t get answered because they’re boring. the real discussion happens with the really juicy questions
Disco (UK)
April 22, 2009 at 10:40 pm
jimmyk – until Freo start playing well, don’t trade their players in. You will have to pay the price for not starting with Cox, I’d suggest.
j drummo
April 22, 2009 at 10:40 pm
what do you think of this trade for SC (only if sidebottom is playing)?
skippy to sidebottom
dale thomas to riewoldt
37k added to kitty…
???