Those looking to trade Hayden Skipworth this week could do worse than the reigning Coleman Medalist.
A reminder of the premise of this regular feature: Rollercoaster follows the ups and downs of weekly price variations in salary cap competitions such as AFL Dream Team and Super Coach. I will try to figure out when premium players have bottomed out and rookie players have reached their ceiling, two things which every successful fantasy coach needs to master to lock in the right trades at the right times.
Big Dippers
There are some teams in the AFL that it seems to the impartial observer are so simple to work out that it’s mystifying that more AFL coaches don’t catch on. For years now, the way to stop St Kilda has been to sit on Nick Dal Santo. Lo and behold, NDS has somehow escaped a hard tag in all four games so far this season, leading to four wins for the Saints. Similarly, Brent Harvey has copped a particularly hard tag in his first four games of 2009, with Clint Bartram, Liam Picken and Garry Moss completely sacrificing their own games to stop the little champ, leading to two losses for North and a close win over the otherwise hapless Demons (the Richmond result this week notwithstanding). Against Essendon, it looked like it was more of the same in the first quarter, with Henry Slattery doing the job. There are two questions out of what happened next. First, why did Essendon shift Slattery off Harvey and move Brent Stanton on him to go head to head, allowing Harvey to set up the Kangaroo win? And second, was Harvey always going to have a good day given that he was sitting on 44 DT points at quarter time despite Slattery’s tag, or was it just that Essendon didn’t have a tagger good enough to go with him? When asked about it on Monday night on the On The Grouch (whoops, Couch) program, James Hird couldn’t think of who the Bombers’ tagger would have been, which is an indication of how far Slattery is down the Essendon depth chart for tagging behind Andrew Welsh, Heath Hocking, Sam Lonergan and even Angus Monfries, with Monfries the only one playing in the game. North has Richmond and Collingwood in the next two weeks, so you’d expect Boomer to get players like Daniel Jackson and Marty Clarke, with Port’s Kane Cornes and Geelong full-field press (minus Cameron Ling, admittedly) after that. Personally, I’m bearish on Boomer, because I remember Shannon Grant‘s precipitous drop in his last year and am wary about older Kangaroos. While this is a year that small forwards are looking more likely to fill out the top 7 fantasy scorers, I’m not so sure that Harvey will end up there.
I am bullish, however, on a couple of Hawk players. Lance Franklin is still leading the Coleman despite Hawthorn’s early season woes, and he chopped against Eric Mackenzie in the preseason so I expect him to do the same this week. If you can upgrade Hayden Skipworth straight to Buddy with cash you have lying around, I reckon do it this week, because he’s every chance to bust through his breakevens of 119/150. Similarly, Luke Hodge has had some weeks to forget, including this week when he struggled under the tag of Tom Logan and got posterised with a mark of the year contender taken on his shoulders. The Eagles will set up the cluster this week like they did against the Power and Dogs at Subiaco to great effect, but Hodgey owns York Park and he’s more than experienced at handling zones down there – witness last year’s game against the Lions. Then in round 6 he’s got the Blues, who are traditionally his bitches. With breakevens of 126/135 it may be a week too early to buy him right now, but make your plans for next week if you can.
Loop De Loop
Obviously, everyone is wondering what to do about Hayden Skipworth. With averages in the mid-80s, trending down, and breakevens of 64/45, Skippy’s days of earning decent coin every time he hops onto the field might be done, and the profits of $54,000 in DT and $86,600 in SC that you’ve already got might be the best he can do. The other big question here is about Mitch Robinson. With fantasy scores dropping like a stone and breakevens of 50/42, the kid with the mouth faster than his legs is going to have to fight off Chris Yarran for his spot in the Carlton 22 this week even before he’s allowed to face the Bulldogs.
I think Skippy’s more of a worry in DT, and as I said in the Bubble column today, you should be looking at replacing him with a rookie in the next week or two. For SC, it may be worth the wait. Meanwhile, Robinson is a big concern in both comps. Ideally you’d replace him with Hamish Hartlett but that doesn’t reap you much cash at all, and buying Steele Sidebottom wouldn’t be much better for your kitty. If he survives the selection table cut this week, I think you’ll just have to hope for a nice, open game against the Doggies at Docklands with a few cheapies to keep the cash cow milking.
I am already hearing some strange names being thrown up on the forums and comment threads for people who you lot have on the chopping block. Paul Hasleby is one name I’ve heard is dispatches, which seems crazy to me as I reckon the Purple Hase is just warming up. Troy Simmonds and David Hille are causing a lot of angst out there, but you bought them as keepers so I think you have to suck up their slow starts. As for trade-in targets, I think it’s safe to give Nick Riewoldt, Daniel Giansiracusa and Matthew Pavlich another week to drop further, given their still-large breakevens.
How about you lot, who are you eyeing off as your Skippy replacement (if anyone)? Do you think Robbo has hit the rookie wall? Are the Hawk premiums going to bounce back this week in Launceston against the long-traveling Eagles? Is Boomer really back? Tell me in the comments.
Dees Man
April 22, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Meesen came 2nd in the preseason cross country, his got a big engine on him and will compete hard. Downside is his skills arn’t up to scrach yet… You would be better trying to straight swap Jacobs for Natanui if you were worried about a back up ruck, he will play in WAFL this weekend and in 2 – 3 should make his debut.
dt is better than sc
April 22, 2009 at 11:24 pm
monty is a legend!
Dan
April 22, 2009 at 11:28 pm
@Motts
nah that’s just a rumour spread by carlton to cover up the fact he is shit
dt is better than sc
April 22, 2009 at 11:29 pm
@jonny
raines may play as richmond are desperate for a win, the same can be said for cuzzy, cotch however is unlikely considering he was injured most of the preseason with the achilles.
Dan
April 22, 2009 at 11:31 pm
@Pierce (Environment) Brosnan
a trade is worth more than $40k mate!! 🙂 bad move
MsHighkick
April 22, 2009 at 11:35 pm
Motts, hadn’t heard who it was, but saw the article in the Mx (? last week) about the 2008 Draftee facing serious assault charges interstate whilst a minor so definitely Yarran fits the profile being a WA boy. Could explain why he’s not playing?
Captain Fantasy
April 23, 2009 at 1:04 am
Was thinking the exact same trade j drummo! But I’d like to give Daisy the Anzac Day clash to redeem himself!
buttocks bluers
April 23, 2009 at 5:55 am
if you can cover skippy with a reserve keep him,the hammy didn’t look too bad. he will play again and he still has upside. Pierce, Dan is right don’t burn a trade for $50k, you’ll regret it in a week or 2.Jimmy, why not look at jolly or hmac for your ruck option!
Brad
April 23, 2009 at 8:18 am
The Herald Sun has given Dreamteam a subliminal smack around the ears this morning.
Comparing Daniel Kerr and Brendan Fevola’s games from the past weekends round.
Quote:
“AFL Dream Team rewards ineffective kicks and marking chip passes in the backline”
“Supercoach rewards contested marks in dangerous spots”
Daniel
April 23, 2009 at 9:05 am
yeah thats because they summed it up accurately…SC is the more skillfull of the two
Dicko
April 23, 2009 at 9:43 am
What happened to Mark Couglan? Week 3 he is listed on the extended bench, week 4 nothing at all!
chris
April 23, 2009 at 9:46 am
Made stupid mistake of not getting Ablett pre-lockout and he killed me last week so going to wait this week to watch some forward rookies then go:
Skippy to “some forward rookieâ€
Gibbs to Ablett
Leaves me a little vunerable in the forward line with Ziebell, Walker and M.Brown also there but Ziebell wil be prob my next upgrade target in a few weeks
Raf
April 23, 2009 at 9:53 am
Dan: he makes 40k and goes from Thomas to Riewoldt, which is a pretty good increase in points.
The reality is that we’d all like to make more money from Skippy, but he’s injured. C’est la vie.
Raf
April 23, 2009 at 10:12 am
Do people think Ryan O’Keefe has bottomed out?
ROK was a premium last year and hasn’t had a great start. He is cheap as chips now if he gets back to last year’s form. IF he gets back to last year’s form…
Does anyone watch Sydney games and know what the issue is? Just not working as hard, different role in the structure in the absence of O’Loughlin, what?
Luke
April 23, 2009 at 10:14 am
dont count out big buddy he will have a big breakout week and it could be this week against west coast..
MrMagoo
April 23, 2009 at 10:41 am
yep 4 rounds of crappy ROK was enough for me, traded ROK (might regret it but who knows) out for Riewoldt who I know will come good!
mark
April 23, 2009 at 11:36 am
Guys, newbie to SC, and would love some advice from you experienced guys. In a tough League which finished top 30 last week, need to boost my points.
Happy, with my team, held on to boomer thru that dark period, am making money,no more than most tho I guess, but have 1 major problem.
Don’t have GAJ,(looking to get to him about rd 15) not the end of the world, but do have S Burgoyne, who has not done so well,major concern to me is not his score(ordinary tho), but his knee and the fact it could cost him playing time.
I can get to GAJ by trading T Tuck(another concern with injuries) to a rookie(Hartlett, Beams, etal), and then S Burg to GAJ (have cash in hand). This will leave me with 13 trades left, and a fairly settled team for
the next 5 or 6 rounds.
Yes GAJ will drop maybe 40 or 50k in the next 2 or 3 rounds, but so will S Burger, as such the $ loss does not concern me too much.
Other than that, I use 1 trade and swap S Burger for say Boyd (WB).
Any comments would be appreciated.
Ropes
April 23, 2009 at 11:39 am
In DT this week I will do the following.
Skippy OUT
Buddy IN
However Travis Tuck has me concerned…
rob85
April 23, 2009 at 12:07 pm
@ MrMagoo
STUPID MRMAGOO.
I downgraded Houli to Houlihan before the prices changed, I wasted a trade but it gave me enough money now to upgrade Skippy to Boomer I think it worked out pretty well for me. I only have to use 1 trade this week(used 4 all up). and have 2 trades next week to downgrade next week when we have more idea about all the rookies playing there second game this week,
2nd year player coming about 2000th all up in SC I think I’m in a pretty good posistion.
James
April 23, 2009 at 12:31 pm
@Disco
“jimmyk – until Freo start playing well, don’t trade their players in”
could be waiting a while mate…..
Plough
April 23, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Go Monty you beautiful hairy man!
MrMagoo
April 23, 2009 at 1:15 pm
S.Burgoyne is extremely unlikely to play, didn’t train yesterday and will probably not play. He has a dicky-knee and its only a matter of time before he’s out long-term, I’m also waiting for something like this to happen to Drummond (who’s bubble is due to burst!).
When is Grimes gonna play and Naitanui (are they really injured or are the coaches just keeping them for later in the season???). Lord knows the Dees need all the help they can get at the moment, and Naitanui would benefit from playing with Cox still healthy rather than waiting for him to get injured and then being forced to play the ruck role.
my rookie tips, hang on to these guys if you’ve got them, J.Ziebel, T.Walker, W.Thompson, S.Sidebottom, N.Naitanui, J.Grimes, R.Schoenmakers, P.Dangerfield, D.Beams
I would give it at least 2-3 more weeks before trying to cash in on any of them. Ziebel, Beams and Walker have all proven themselves to be good-value 7th men in their position on-field.
Will I regret trading ROK for Riewoldt, time will tell but I can’t afford to wait till Rd15 when ROK will snap out of his poor streak.
Bowyer
April 23, 2009 at 1:16 pm
In regards to the Skippy trade…
Anyone considered
– Gia?
– Didak?
– O’Keefe?
– Medhurst
These guys have dropped considerably in value, and if they are actual champions which their initial prices suggest they will be back to their best soon.
They are between the 320-400 range. Are they worth considering? Definiltey a bit easier to reach than the Volt etc.
Further backline troubles….Malceski
What are peoples thoughts on Malceski? Considering I need him to fire as one of the 300k players in my backline – will he ever returned to an 80 average? Or is it worth attempting to upgrade him to a hodge or similar in the next week or too?
whitman
April 23, 2009 at 2:20 pm
I can categorically say that i support Mott’s reasoning for Yarran not playing.
I was chatting with a carlton employee the other day, and he did in fact tell me the story about Yarran and the charges he is facing.
He also suggested that if carlton had have known he was facing criminal charges, they, along with the rest of the clubs would not have drafted him. He is facing serious charges, so there is no way he will be playing any time soon, if at all this year.
Thats good news for all u robinson, and garlett fans, coz they have the chance to shine through his absence.
Nige
April 23, 2009 at 2:42 pm
have to agree with Monty re: Haselby. He’s just getting warmed up after missing with the knee rehab. He was a decent scorer before the injury, and speed has never been a factor for his success – I expect him to get back to his best before long.
I’m not quite ready to be buying up Hawks players just because they are playing the Eagles. Granted, the WCE are travelling to a place they have not had much success at, but their game plan is one that I think will compete with the Hawks. Also expect a forward tag on Hodge
Tim
April 23, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Monty can you please give shane o’bree an icon of a ‘hard hat’ as his is the definition of a work man like performance.
nick
April 23, 2009 at 5:19 pm
@hoops-i think thats a solid idea. thumbs up from me.
to monty, love your work!! great posts.
some shit DT player
April 23, 2009 at 5:26 pm
I NEED HELP!!!!!
Who do i trade this week Hentschell or skippy? and for who???????
P.S for dream team!!!
Thanks heaps if ya can help me!!!!
Dave
April 23, 2009 at 5:42 pm
I would not trade for franklin this week
he will go down again next week with break evens of 150/119 and a poor record against the WCE and with the smaller ground in tassie making it easy for oposing teams to flood the backline. I’d expect him to drop as low as 350K for DT and 450K for SC.
Hartlett looks good if he can keep his place in the side but is risky before his second game and with some big names due back soon at port.
If Nathan G Brown wasn’t injured (anyone know anything about this? did he pull his groin designing some fancy dresses at his shop in chapel st?) he’d be worth a look.
but I’d say cash cow skip with a trade for Ziebz or Nahas, they won’t make big numbers but they will make you some cash and in three weeks you can trade back for skip or someone else with an extra 50-100K in your back pocket.
Raf
April 23, 2009 at 5:53 pm
Bowyer:
– Agreed on ROK. Breakeven 92 and it’s not impossible he’ll bounce back this very week, he had a good 2nd half last week… I’m going for him myself, probably.
– Gia is having very poor TOG, which suggests he’s either carrying something or on the outs with the coach, probably the first one.
– Didak has a fair bit further to drop, give him another couple of weeks and get him in.
– Medhurst has had one good season, hard to say if he will repeat this year. That happens with mid forwards a lot, Corey Jones went from fringe AA in 2007 to the outs by the end of 2008 to VFL fodder this year. You never know.
Chuck Norris
April 23, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Geez, you could have knocked me over with a feather when I heard the news from whitman above that Yarran’s facing charges of a criminal nature. So I’ve got to cover Skippy and I’ve got Yarran and Sidebotton on the bench.
Yarran will soon be fronting a magistrate and Malthouse is playing tricky trams with the possibility of Sidebottom covering a not 100% Rocca. Do I trade or not? Can some phycic person look into Malthouse’s cranky little nut and give me the Sidebottom mail? Agghhh – these coaches drive me nuts.
Charlie
April 23, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Guys – don’t trade in Nahas…he won’t last much longer…it’s not an option, honestly.
Disco (UK)
April 23, 2009 at 6:49 pm
@James – yeah, 2011!
Leroy
April 23, 2009 at 7:01 pm
good stuff monty!!!
anyone know the go with the DT Talk site
i am having massive trouble loading it!!!
how about no
April 23, 2009 at 9:06 pm
hows the day been fellas I reckon get boomer harvey next week give him one more week to see if he will be the real deal I cant wait to get Pav for my already bulging forward line next week, I mean damn so many guys in my forward line already bulge a massive way so I am stoked to get some more bulging boys on the field.
Kennyrocks
April 23, 2009 at 11:16 pm
Haha stop saying bulge. Nah if it makes you happy i say go for it!
Foxo
April 24, 2009 at 10:29 am
So jealous of your bulge right now!