This season the Bubble feature changes a little, looking at all rookies who are yet to have their price change.
Previously in the regular Boys On The Bubble feature I’ve gone through every player who played their second game in the most recent round of matches. That’s not quite how fantasy coaches see things, however: they’re interested in any rookie-priced player whose price hasn’t changed yet, even if they haven’t played a game so far. So that’s who I’ll concentrate on, grouped by position.
Backopalypse
Michael Quinn, ESS BAC. DT: 12,333 selections, $75,300, -33 BE, 45 avg. SC: 13,559 selections, $83,400, -34 BE, 42.5 avg.
The back situation is one that convinced me to change the Bubble feature for this season, because the decisions are mostly based around players who aren’t on what I have been calling the bubble – i.e., that they have played two games. Most pertinently, Greg Broughton should play his second game this week returning from injury, and he’s a far better prospect than Quinn and should play far more games. The Irishman’s second game shocker proves two things: first, that you should always try to get two looks at rookies you want to buy; and second, you should discount fantasy scores against the Dockers this year, because Freo is a basket case. The same applied to David Zaharakis last week. One outside chance in this position is Matthew Suckling, who was not on this week’s lengthy Hawthorn injury report and will be sorely needed to play his second game this in a criminally undermanned backline – remember how well Brendan Whitecross did in a similar situation last week.
Centrageddon
There are no boys on the two-game bubble in the centres this week, but there are a couple of interesting one-gamers in Jaxson Barham and Hamish Hartlett, with Andrew Collins and Kristin Thornton also debuting in round 4. Barham’s 122 in DT masks a shocking disposal efficiency of 61% with nine clangers, leading to a SC score of only 77. His fantasy scores were also inflated by nine tackles, something you wouldn’t expect to see replicated when conditions are less greasy than they were last Friday night at the Gabba. Despite that tackle count, Barham’s game style is very outside, as evidenced by all his marks being uncontested with no clearances among his 27 possessions. Not that that is necessarily a knock on his game, because if you look at Hartlett’s numbers they’re even more outside, with only two of his 23 disposals and none of his 11 marks being contested. Port’s draw includes the red hot Saints this Friday and then the Showdown for Hartlett’s all-important third game, so that outside ball that came to him so cheaply against the decimated Hawks will dry up considerably in coming weeks. Nevertheless, I think Hartlett’s job security is less of an issue than Barham’s, if only because Port haven’t had a draft pick as high as Hamish’s #3#4 in their club history and they want their fans to get a look at the boy. With the Anzac Day game this week, my feeling is that Mick Malthouse will pull out a signature MM move and debut Steele Sidebottom for the big occasion, which may well mean Barham won’t get the run of six games that you need out of a fantasy rookie.
Ruckolocaust
John Meesen, MEL RUC. DT: 13,045 selections, $86,600, -66 BE, 65.5 avg. SC: 14,839 selections, $94,200, -82 BE, 69.5 avg.
Meesen’s role in fantasy footy this year is pretty much as a big bird-flip from Dean Bailey to all Jake Spencer owners. If you’re making plans to buy Meesen, your team must be having some huge problems.
Forwardystopia
Robin Nahas, RIC FWD. DT: 7,504 selections, $84,300, -42 BE, 52.5 avg. SC: 8,977 selections, $92,400, -40 BE, 48 avg.
Wade Thompson, PTA FWD. DT: 21,434 selections, $88,300, -11 BE, 38.5 avg. SC: 32,356 selections, $96,400, -11 BE, 35 avg.
Both of these small forwards have been slightly disappointing for fantasy purposes, especially considering the historical averages of players of their type, as detailed in the debut game fantasy averages post in the 2009 cheat sheet. I suppose Nahas has been thereabouts on the 50-ish average for small general forwards, but it is Thompson who has let down tens of thousands of coaches, delivering poor numbers during two big wins for the Power in which he should be joining the party. As with Hartlett, Port’s coming opponents will allow less space than the Demons and Hawks, so Thompson is looking less and less like the livewire he showed us in the NAB. As with the backs, though, it’s the one- and zero-gamers who interest me more. Cameron Ling‘s four week injury announced during the week is excellent news for those of us who have had our eye on Simon Hogan, and he should be the primary beneficiary of game time in the Cats midfield over the next month. For those with a bit more cash, the aforementioned Sidebottom should really be bought as a forward despite also having centre eligibility. Those waiting for Hayden Ballantyne will have to wait a while longer, judging from recent injury reports, but the other big smokie this week is Chris Yarran, who Blue fans are already starting to agitate for as a replacement for the tiring Mitch Robinson.
Most of the trade talk this week should be over Hayden Skipworth with his 2-4 week hamstring, and with Hogan, Sidebottom and Yarran all likely to play this week, I think it’s perhaps a bit premature to be talking about upgrading Skippy to a premium like Nick Riewoldt or Daniel Giansiracusa, when there are so many good forward rookies coming down the highway. You’re going to have at least one week to look at all three of them, so unless you’re convinced that one of those three is Your Boy, it would be prudent to sit Skippy on your bench and let the likes of Thompson, Jack Ziebell, Taylor Walker and Mitchell Brown have their day in your 22 while you plan your next move.
I presume that the vast majority of you have Skippy and are currently agonising over what to do with him. You’ve lived through the Andrew Raines disaster and the Liam Anthony clusterbomb, so can you stomach a third injury trade in the first four weeks, or are you going to wait it out? Which of Hogan, Frontbum or Yarran takes your fancy? Tell me in the comments.
Rooboy
April 22, 2009 at 8:52 pm
To everyone who even bothers responding to the idiotic and useless comments made by some of the nuffys on this site your just as bad as them. Fanfooty is supposed to be about footy so talk footy.
Anyway, I have skippy also and have decided to hold onto him for at least one more week. Decided to downgrade from Heath Shaw to Rance and upgrade Raines to Lockier.
Have Roughead in the foward line who Im not to happy with at the moment and J Riewoldt and really would like at least 2 of the power fowards ie: Voldt, Chappy, Boomer and Stevie J. Still have Rich, Robinson, Beams, Skippy, Ward and Ziebell all making me money. Rich obviously doesnt look like slowing down anytime soon or Ziebell but would like to hear your thoughts on who I should start trading out first?
Cheers
clackerz
April 22, 2009 at 9:18 pm
I have Skippy and am thinking of holding onto him whilst I wait and decide what to do over the next couple of rounds. I have both Frontbum & Schoenmakerz on the bench (as well as Ziebell in my 22) so if either of the bench players are named I’m sweet.
I also am watching Deledio closely this week. He has this week to show some improvement or he’ll make up part of a trade next week. If the Tigers don’t stand up and show some passion this week Wallace might as well pack his stuff on Sunday – it’ll never happen whilst he’s there.
gomaz84
April 22, 2009 at 10:00 pm
firstly, hairy what a stupid comment, bet you wouldnt say that face to face!!! dont have a problem typing it behind a nickname on the net.pathetic
secondly, i think i will hold of on my trades this week, and that is coming from someone who has only used 2 – have held onto raines, bock, anthony. i know boomer and roo are cheap, but another week to look at hartlett, barham, broughton could be v. valuable. plus there is the chance to look at rookie fwds(maybe) in yarran/sidebottom
Chuck Norris
April 22, 2009 at 10:10 pm
I’m really up and about about the Yarran/Sidebottom mail. Geez I hope they do get a run.
Disco (UK)
April 22, 2009 at 10:33 pm
@Woofta – I’m 1 trade ahead of all Anthony traders (who traded him for $0 profit). 2 trades if he is traded back in.
I plan to trade out Anthony for a solid profit. Alot more profit than Robinson will, which alot of coaches jumped on and will burn and 1 extra trade cashing him in.
There will be plenty of playing midfield rookies to store on the bench as back-up and forget about, come Anthony trade time.
I’d say Robo will be cashed-in around round 6, Anthony will be cashed in around round 15. The somewhat unique position I’m suggesting is Robo owners will be upgrading to a different group of performing / underpriced premiums (aside from a handful of consistent premiums) in round 6, than Ant owners in round 15.
benno
April 22, 2009 at 10:41 pm
hairy ain’t so scary no mo’
Chuck Norris
April 22, 2009 at 10:41 pm
I grabbed Krak just before the R3. He’s given me $127K in two games, just as I lucked out and grabbed Gilbert at the same time to trade out the Raines/Henschel WMD penetrator bombs. These two have been an absolute ripper. Both delivering the perfect mix of 100 point per game and massive price upside.
They also took the heat of me feeling the need to trade the then poor performing premiums like Boomer, Roo, Bowden and Pav. And hey, didn’t that premium ship come in big time for me R4. They gave me 582 pts between them. I was hoping and praying that they would come good. I’d love Steele and Yarran to be named this weekend as they’re my bench forwards. Skippy’s injury wouldn’t cost me a trade. It’s funny at tis time of year – trading doesnt carry the same precison as you tend to give it in Spring.
I feel that us guys on this site are like pioneers. In 10 years – fantasy footy will be a multi billion $$ business in Oz. There will be pubs kitted out with internet PC’s so guys can rejig their sides on Friday evening, massive incentives to play in certain comps, and the inevitable advance of legitimised gambling on it. This is gonna be big. Make no doubt.
Chuck Norris
April 22, 2009 at 10:46 pm
And your site Monty will be worth a fortune!
jackson
April 22, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Great write up.
I will also be waiting at least a week until rich/beams/dangerfield have peaked to upgrade skippy to a fallen premo – boomer, pav etc
However not too happy with “ruckolocaust”. Very insensitive and unnecessary.
David
April 22, 2009 at 11:33 pm
Ive got skippy.. also got higgo n krakhead.. had the 3 from the start and were all planned to be upgraded into keepers/premiums at some stage.
Before the start of round 4, i was looking at future trades for the coming weeks with my toughest league matches all near the start, i saved 280k for this week, to do the 1 upgrade trade. While looking at the 3 forwards (skippy, higgo, krakhead) – who was going to make the least amount of cash?? and it was clearly going to be skippy.. i saw boomer and volt, and i thought if volt drops a little or doesn’t go up, ill trade skippy for him with my 280k for my round 5 upgrade.. works out that he injuries himself and everything falls into place for my team this week.. thou hopping t.tuck gets a run, as he is pointless trading without playing 3 games (unless gone for 4 weeks).
Skippyz value wont go up much more and by the time his ready to come back after playing VFL, he may struggle to get back into the bommers midfield for a few weeks.
Talkn SC
Dan
April 22, 2009 at 11:41 pm
@monty
agree with others, this comments section is turning into Live Chat quality… its time to force people to login to post comments and bring out the banhammer on their arses!!
allow us to use nicknames though because my username sucks 🙂
p.s., great article – frontbum out of those guys .. cream floats to the top and frontbum costs extra for a reason
Dan
April 22, 2009 at 11:42 pm
oops Yarran costs more – but he’s lazy 🙂
FactHunt
April 23, 2009 at 1:04 am
Still no discussion about Mr. Hogan set to play a few for that mob out of Geelong… a bit disappointing i would have thought. mOnty has dropped his name (as above) and i woulda thought he seems a ‘circumstantial’ likely type 😀
1. The cats are down one big ranga
2. There is a plethora of possessions available to any given cat who takes the field any given week… on the basis of their universal skill alone
3. Pre-season, the Bomber Thommo himself (although as untrustworthy as any coach at times) stated the kid would play 10-15 games this year…
anyone elses’ thoughts?
m0nty
April 23, 2009 at 1:49 am
Dan: I have been thinking about restricting blog comments to those with FF logins, actually.
Crazy Like a Fox
April 23, 2009 at 1:50 am
@Facthunt – I heard the same interview on SEN where Thompson stated that Hogan was likely to play 10-15 games this year. He could be a good one to look at after he has played his second game if needed to get some cash from one of walker or m.brown.
m0nty
April 23, 2009 at 1:50 am
jackson: If you can come up with another word to describe the terrible ruck rookies, I’m open to suggestion. Not Ruckoff, though. 😉
Crazy Like a Fox
April 23, 2009 at 1:51 am
@m0nty – definitely a good idea
Crazy Like a Fox
April 23, 2009 at 1:53 am
@monty – how about destRUCKtion
benno
April 23, 2009 at 1:56 am
yes Mr Fat, this could be hogan’s week – particularly if the cats wind up their lonergan experiments. with prismall gone hogan is a good bet to fill in several games whenever someone gets injured – but i’m reluctant cause he can’t be relied on to play every week
Crazy Like a Fox
April 23, 2009 at 2:02 am
… or to play on the word further destRUCKshun
m0nty
April 23, 2009 at 2:04 am
Has to start with Ruck though.
Crazy Like a Fox
April 23, 2009 at 2:09 am
Ruckolation?
Chuck Norris
April 23, 2009 at 2:21 am
Ruck and awe?
sp00ky
April 23, 2009 at 2:24 am
monty
Why are you so sure Yarran will get a game? All i’ve read about him suggests he’s still a fair way away – not fit enough and has not been performing in the VFL.
Played poorly again last week for the bullants – didn’t get much footy or kick any goals, was missing tackles and not working hard enough.
Do you know something about him that i dont?
(please know something i dont – this guy has been rotting on my bench since round 1! 😉
raisedfist
April 23, 2009 at 2:29 am
Ruckus?
Bangy
April 23, 2009 at 3:08 am
u really screwed me with the dont get tarkyn lockyer call ya jacckkasss
Elroy67
April 23, 2009 at 8:36 am
Ruck-quiem? (for all the dead ruckmen)
I’m going to hang on to skippy. There are no logical downgrade targets this week (i want more evidence from the rookies), and I dont have the upgrade cash. I’m not going to cop a 0…..yet.
dedem
April 23, 2009 at 8:52 am
Does anyone have any idea on when tom swift, Tyrone vickery or daniel currie will play? PLEASE ANSWER.
Heater
April 23, 2009 at 9:04 am
Ruck n Roll??
I will keep Skippy until he comes back as I have the cattle to cover him even if Walker/M.Brown are not averaging the same as Skip.
I also have Krakour. I think coaches will wise up to him soon and start tagging him (his run and disposal out of the baclkine has been very good). As soon as he bottoms out I’ll try and get Roo. Depends how much Krak goes up in price in the next few weeks though. Lets hope Roo has 2 bad ones soon!!!
Peter G
April 23, 2009 at 9:31 am
Jackson, holocaust is not a proper noun. It means the annihilation or near-annihilation of a group of animals or people, whether by natural or deliberate agency (e.g., “nuclear holocaustâ€). The word is of Ancient Greek origins.
Whilst I understand your comment, I believe Monty’s use of the word appropriate in context of ‘the Backopalypse’, ‘Centrageddon’, etc.
I, personally, prefer Ruckus.
Raf
April 23, 2009 at 10:07 am
Go the Ruckus.
I think getting Hogan risks another guy who might play 4-6 games for the season. Enough to make a little money, but not really enough.
Parasite
April 23, 2009 at 11:10 am
How about Ruckinghell?
m0nty
April 23, 2009 at 11:23 am
I like Ruckquiem.
Ropes
April 23, 2009 at 11:46 am
Ruckapitulation
Mr Gor
April 23, 2009 at 11:59 am
Too many comments to read through there (also seeing as half of em were about Ruck-something), so this might’ve already been said, but I would warn against the people looking to trade in Hartlett.
As promising as a player he is, last week Port had both Burgoynes and Cassisi out. Once they come back, Hartlett will also be behind the likes of Tom Logan, Matt Thomas, and David Rodan for a spot – all of which are potential regulars in the 22. I can’t see him playing consistent footy unless some injuries kick in. Wade Thompson should get dropped soon enough as well, he is definitely not doing enough to keep his spot.
Fozman
April 23, 2009 at 12:09 pm
I agree with Nick, Skipworth needs to be an upgrade for mine. And I don’t understand why the consensus on Riewoldt seems to be wait-and-see. His BE is <100(DT) unlike Pav, Buddy etc.
peppers
April 23, 2009 at 12:32 pm
RUCK be a lady tonight… or RUCKing Unbelievable!
Grinners
April 23, 2009 at 1:16 pm
“and with Hogan, Sidebottom and Yarran all likely to play this week, I think it’s perhaps a bit premature to be talking about upgrading Skippy…”
Monty, your posts are well thought out and clearly researched, but this comment bewilders me. What are you basing this assumption on? There is no hard evidence.
Hogan – Ling out, Milburn in….who gets dropped for Hogan?
Sidebottom – Pure speculation that Mick might include him. No other reason to think it will happen.
Yarren – Couldn’t take Garlett’s place as a small forward and is yet to be named as even an emergency. Carrazzo set to come in and Scotland has to be in the mix. Throw in plenty of talk about massive off-field problems.
I dont think any of them are LIKELY to play, just possibilities. I doubt any will get a run, but you may get one of three.
jbiz
April 23, 2009 at 1:33 pm
can i ask a question about why people are so sure to trade to riewoldt this week. i know his breakeven is only 88, which is an entirely reasonable score for him to post (mind you it’s no guarantee with wet weather forecast), but what i don’t understand is how people think his price will not drop below it’s current value of $409,800. that seems like a very high price to maintain at or above throughout the season. what price did he dip to last year????
Fozman
April 23, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Riewoldt started at $441k/$614k in DT/SC respectively, has dropped twice, has a BE of less than his avg and is about to lose his worst score from the 3-game rolling forecast. I’m not a Riewoldt supporter, but I can’t understand the reservations – wet weather or dry.
Peter G
April 23, 2009 at 2:43 pm
@ Grinners:
Not pure specualation, mate, Mick said it himself re Sidebottom, as did Bomber about Hogan. They’re even reporting it on afl.com. Yarran is a no go for a plethora of reasons.
I think Monty’s comment was more related to holding on a week, rather than pulling the trigger immediately.
dt is better than sc
April 23, 2009 at 3:05 pm
monty – skippy to krak – wise or waste?
Grinners
April 23, 2009 at 3:06 pm
@Peter G
The comments from Mick on AFL.com have come well after Monty’s speculative post. In reading the article, Mick’s comments regarding the matter are nothing more than, “I’ve done it before.”, when asked about the chance of a player making a debut on the big stage of Anzac day. It’s a chance, but still very much speculation.
ZergMinion
April 23, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Completely Rucked
As for Hasleby, he’s got back problems from the days when Freo threw him in and under the packs every game in his first year, so assuming he avoids the soft tissue curse of the previously reconstructed, he’ll still occasionally have a rubbish score when his back is playing up.
Peter G
April 23, 2009 at 4:43 pm
@ Grinners
Malthouse made the comments earlier in the week, in the first interview to follow-up the ‘Buckley naive’ interview. AFL.com is not exclusively reporting the content of the interview, just commenting on it in the lead up to the teams being released. Truth be told, all that article talks about is a debutant, and not Sidebottom at all.
craig
April 23, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Ruckallnightlong…
Skippy is benched. Trading now is for nuff nuffs.
fdog.
April 23, 2009 at 5:14 pm
i got rid of skippy who was actually in my midfield, for lenny hayes. now my midfield is ablett, j selwood, bateman, dal santo, hayes and rich with robinson and dangerfield as emerg. im contemplating trading robinson for hartlett because ive seen hartlett play and have played against him in yr 12 school football as i live in south australia and he is going to be one of the elite midfielders in the afl in years to come. he will have no problem finding the hard ball tomorrow night or for the rest of the season, boys i can assure you of that!
josh
April 23, 2009 at 6:29 pm
monty i dunno. there are some bad judgements here…yarren is still a sometime away…even though robinson IS droped.
Al
April 23, 2009 at 7:37 pm
Monty
Dowler, from your boys not worth a mention? Or you saving him for your team?
borednow
April 23, 2009 at 9:44 pm
Does it really have to start with ruck? I like Ragnaruck. Hope this isn’t offensive to any vikings reading.