This season the Bubble feature changes a little, looking at all rookies who are yet to have their price change.
Previously in the regular Boys On The Bubble feature I’ve gone through every player who played their second game in the most recent round of matches. That’s not quite how fantasy coaches see things, however: they’re interested in any rookie-priced player whose price hasn’t changed yet, even if they haven’t played a game so far. So that’s who I’ll concentrate on, grouped by position.
Backopalypse
Michael Quinn, ESS BAC. DT: 12,333 selections, $75,300, -33 BE, 45 avg. SC: 13,559 selections, $83,400, -34 BE, 42.5 avg.
The back situation is one that convinced me to change the Bubble feature for this season, because the decisions are mostly based around players who aren’t on what I have been calling the bubble – i.e., that they have played two games. Most pertinently, Greg Broughton should play his second game this week returning from injury, and he’s a far better prospect than Quinn and should play far more games. The Irishman’s second game shocker proves two things: first, that you should always try to get two looks at rookies you want to buy; and second, you should discount fantasy scores against the Dockers this year, because Freo is a basket case. The same applied to David Zaharakis last week. One outside chance in this position is Matthew Suckling, who was not on this week’s lengthy Hawthorn injury report and will be sorely needed to play his second game this in a criminally undermanned backline – remember how well Brendan Whitecross did in a similar situation last week.
Centrageddon
There are no boys on the two-game bubble in the centres this week, but there are a couple of interesting one-gamers in Jaxson Barham and Hamish Hartlett, with Andrew Collins and Kristin Thornton also debuting in round 4. Barham’s 122 in DT masks a shocking disposal efficiency of 61% with nine clangers, leading to a SC score of only 77. His fantasy scores were also inflated by nine tackles, something you wouldn’t expect to see replicated when conditions are less greasy than they were last Friday night at the Gabba. Despite that tackle count, Barham’s game style is very outside, as evidenced by all his marks being uncontested with no clearances among his 27 possessions. Not that that is necessarily a knock on his game, because if you look at Hartlett’s numbers they’re even more outside, with only two of his 23 disposals and none of his 11 marks being contested. Port’s draw includes the red hot Saints this Friday and then the Showdown for Hartlett’s all-important third game, so that outside ball that came to him so cheaply against the decimated Hawks will dry up considerably in coming weeks. Nevertheless, I think Hartlett’s job security is less of an issue than Barham’s, if only because Port haven’t had a draft pick as high as Hamish’s #3#4 in their club history and they want their fans to get a look at the boy. With the Anzac Day game this week, my feeling is that Mick Malthouse will pull out a signature MM move and debut Steele Sidebottom for the big occasion, which may well mean Barham won’t get the run of six games that you need out of a fantasy rookie.
Ruckolocaust
John Meesen, MEL RUC. DT: 13,045 selections, $86,600, -66 BE, 65.5 avg. SC: 14,839 selections, $94,200, -82 BE, 69.5 avg.
Meesen’s role in fantasy footy this year is pretty much as a big bird-flip from Dean Bailey to all Jake Spencer owners. If you’re making plans to buy Meesen, your team must be having some huge problems.
Forwardystopia
Robin Nahas, RIC FWD. DT: 7,504 selections, $84,300, -42 BE, 52.5 avg. SC: 8,977 selections, $92,400, -40 BE, 48 avg.
Wade Thompson, PTA FWD. DT: 21,434 selections, $88,300, -11 BE, 38.5 avg. SC: 32,356 selections, $96,400, -11 BE, 35 avg.
Both of these small forwards have been slightly disappointing for fantasy purposes, especially considering the historical averages of players of their type, as detailed in the debut game fantasy averages post in the 2009 cheat sheet. I suppose Nahas has been thereabouts on the 50-ish average for small general forwards, but it is Thompson who has let down tens of thousands of coaches, delivering poor numbers during two big wins for the Power in which he should be joining the party. As with Hartlett, Port’s coming opponents will allow less space than the Demons and Hawks, so Thompson is looking less and less like the livewire he showed us in the NAB. As with the backs, though, it’s the one- and zero-gamers who interest me more. Cameron Ling‘s four week injury announced during the week is excellent news for those of us who have had our eye on Simon Hogan, and he should be the primary beneficiary of game time in the Cats midfield over the next month. For those with a bit more cash, the aforementioned Sidebottom should really be bought as a forward despite also having centre eligibility. Those waiting for Hayden Ballantyne will have to wait a while longer, judging from recent injury reports, but the other big smokie this week is Chris Yarran, who Blue fans are already starting to agitate for as a replacement for the tiring Mitch Robinson.
Most of the trade talk this week should be over Hayden Skipworth with his 2-4 week hamstring, and with Hogan, Sidebottom and Yarran all likely to play this week, I think it’s perhaps a bit premature to be talking about upgrading Skippy to a premium like Nick Riewoldt or Daniel Giansiracusa, when there are so many good forward rookies coming down the highway. You’re going to have at least one week to look at all three of them, so unless you’re convinced that one of those three is Your Boy, it would be prudent to sit Skippy on your bench and let the likes of Thompson, Jack Ziebell, Taylor Walker and Mitchell Brown have their day in your 22 while you plan your next move.
I presume that the vast majority of you have Skippy and are currently agonising over what to do with him. You’ve lived through the Andrew Raines disaster and the Liam Anthony clusterbomb, so can you stomach a third injury trade in the first four weeks, or are you going to wait it out? Which of Hogan, Frontbum or Yarran takes your fancy? Tell me in the comments.
Chris
April 22, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Great wrap mate, keep it up
hairy
April 22, 2009 at 2:55 pm
i think you shou.d take your profile pic away because you arent very good to look at.
m0nty
April 22, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Did I kill someone’s dog? Such aggro on this site lately.
Marc
April 22, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Hairy you’re a tool, good stuff Monty, really think Mick would drop Barham after one game where he showed he can get a lot of the pill albeit fairly ineffectively.
m0nty
April 22, 2009 at 3:03 pm
No, I didn’t say Barham would be dropped this week. It’s just that with Beams and Sidebottom in the side and likely to stay there, I think Barham will get squeezed out before they will.
CyclopZ
April 22, 2009 at 3:04 pm
m0nty – Im really leaning towards taking Krakour to be honest…. I have Ziebell playing , Brown and Walker on the bench but im looking to make a move for a big fish by around round 7 or 8…. we will see. Krakour has a good break even and looks like a bit of a ball magnet who disposes of it quite well and he will grown in price – that is 2 upsides for me. Skipworth – i feel will not be able to offer to much worth i feel so im going to burn trade number 16 to get rid of him….. Hopefully with the next few weeks T Tuck will make me some dough in the centre and my rookes will have made a bit more money and then i will be changing my forward line and centre to include 2 premiums….. pretty much Ablett Jnr (Who i did not pick up in the first place) and a good premium forward to go with my other under performing premiums (Lids, O’Keefe, Pav, Franklin). Thats my initial thoughts anyway….. what do you think? Pulling the trigger to early?
CyclopZ
April 22, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Oh – and fantastic work by the way! Good wrap. Look forward to the coaches box this week.
chris
April 22, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Grow up Hairy.
Monty – cna we ban tools like this. Seriously, this site’s gone downhill over the past week exactly because of aggro (or faux aggro) like this.
As for Skippy I’m going to upgrade to an elite, probably Roo to be honest, as I have already cashed in a player and gained $200K plus.
I already have Hogan, as well as Walker, Brown and Ziebell, and before getting rid of any of these forward rookies through a downgrade I’d like to have a look at Yarran, Steele and others.
One of these guys could possibly come in for Walker or Brown for example to earn me $100K. Ballantyne is a later consideration as well.
As for back rookies (Rance, Suban and Broughton) – not touchig any of them while they are getting a game. I have one in my side each week and want to keep it that way for now!
Leeds
April 22, 2009 at 3:09 pm
You’re a Jerk hairy.
Good wrap Monty. Some good calls on the rookies this week. I really hope Hogan does get a run through the midfield. I have been keeping him on my bench for this.
Is it worth kepping Skippy as when he eventually returns his price still have maybe 2-3 more rises? Then look to upgrade to the premium?
percentagewinner
April 22, 2009 at 3:10 pm
I think the aggro is generated because some of the DT’s aren’t ranking quite as highly as people thought they would.
For all the crap thats been put up over the last two days, I for one don’t mind that young kid (Mitcho) cutting his teeth. He does my legwork for me and for that, I’m appreciative – very appreciative.
On the real topic of DT, for those with cash in the bank I think the likes of Boomer and Big Nick are as attractive as they’re ever going to be, and now might be the time to jump on, next week I might want two trades free to look at some of those Bubble Boys and reap the rewards. The likes of a Gian might even be tempting, but thats one step too far for me.
Chad
April 22, 2009 at 3:17 pm
“Nevertheless, I think Hartlett’s job security is less of an issue than Barham’s, if only because Port haven’t had a draft pick as high as Hamish’s #3 in their club history and they want their fans to get a look at the boy”
Pick 4 there monty. Port has never had a top 3 pick. Would be nice to eventually get one at some stage.
“so that outside ball that came to him so cheaply against the decimated Hawks will dry up considerably in coming weeks”
Hawks decimated, hmm a little but it isn’t like Port were at full strength either. Just 3 premiership players and Justin Westhoff missing.
“I think it’s perhaps a bit premature to be talking about upgrading Skippy to a premium like Nick Riewoldt”
Doesn’t that depend on structure though? I will use my 2nd trade to go skip to the Voldt i think.
Steele could be a NICE downgrade target from a T Walker in a couple of weeks, Yarren will have to show some good form.
PoO
April 22, 2009 at 3:21 pm
@ Monty, most websites have mods to stop this behavior showed by hairy. You might need to take steps in the direction as it may drive people away for your site.
Eddicat
April 22, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Excuse my ignorance but what does BE stand for?
Great article by the way. I think I will put Skipworth on the bench and trade one of my dud bench warmers for a young gun who’s actually playing.
chris
April 22, 2009 at 3:30 pm
Eddiecat – BE means Break Even, the score a player has to achieve in the next game in order to remain at his present price.
Below the break even = drop in price. Above the BE = rise in price.
Eddicat
April 22, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Thanks Chris. Couldn’t find a key/legend anywhere on this excellent site. Might be useful for noobs Monty.
hairy
April 22, 2009 at 3:35 pm
i was just giving some friendly advice. a point in the right direction.
Ropes
April 22, 2009 at 3:36 pm
@ Eddicat,B/E is breakeven, when a player (ie a cash cow reaches a B/E higher than his average, he is usually traded out, either to a premium or downgrade and a mid priced player is upgraded. 🙂
Monty IIRC, its you v me in the FanFooty SC league this week. Good luck matey.
(SC TALK)
Was tempted to trade Malceski out for Broughton and upgrade Skippy to Roo, but Syd have the Klu Klux Klan wannabes this week and Riewoldt is playing Port in Adelaide where the weather is tipped to be raining….might bring Walker into the 22 for Skip this week as he is playing Melbourne, and see about trading next week.
Timbo
April 22, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Now that Skipworth is out I have developed two options for myself:
Deal with having Brown or Walker on the field along with Lovett, L. Hansen, Delidio (all underperforming)
OR
With Higgins being just about a keeper now, I could trade Lovett(who was supposed to be a keeper) down and then Skipworth up to Richo or the like.
You could say I’m wasting my trades but what’s the difference between making my upgrades early rather than later?
same as last week
April 22, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Seems like Vossy may be toying with the idea of promoting 18 year old rookie Daniel Murray after all the ruck turmoil.
“That’s one of the reasons why we recruited him because of that size and he has fair mobility about him, but I think as a match committee you’ve got to sit down and really go over the pros and cons of whether you bring someone in so early and whether he’s ready,†Voss said.
http://www.lions.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/5085/newsid/75309/default.aspx
With the ruck hoodoo, should he get picked, STRAP YOUR KNEES BLOODY WELL.
chris
April 22, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Ropes – reckon the weather may, for the first time this season, be a real consideration this coming weekend.
Some filthy weather predicted for Adelaide and Melbourne, as well as continued changeable weather in parts north.
Makes selections interesting, even for captain as one G Ablett will be playing on a rain sodden, windy, cold, Kardinia Park.
Ropes
April 22, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Chris – Wet at Kardinya? Mark Jesus down for 150 DT and 200 SC lol 🙂
However Walker may struggle v Dees then if it is Wet….Hmmmm
chris
April 22, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Agreed Ropes – though Bartel and his wet weather play may also have something to say about it.
Forgot there’s a game on the island too this weekend – probably even more filthy weatherwise in Launceston – the Eagles will end up with frostbite you’d reckon.
Maybe look for a game or two under the roof at Etihad … Richmond v North anyone? J Ziebell anyone?
korza 378th
April 22, 2009 at 3:56 pm
@ Monty
QUALITY QUALITY QUALITY QUALITY
After a couple of lack lustre performances by the Fanfooty crew, Monty comes back with an absolute belter of a blog.
Chook
April 22, 2009 at 4:05 pm
Great read, m0nty, as always.
Big Jim
April 22, 2009 at 4:19 pm
@eddicat – on the front page, just above the “Exteam” logo, is a link to monty’s fantasy glossary – useful for noobs to pick up the lingo.
What to do with Skippy I reckon will be a decisive move of the year – whether trading him or benching him is the right move might prove a real point of difference between sides.
Personally, gonna bench him and play big Tex Walker.
Pingback: Buddy’s bottom: Rollercoaster for Round 4, 2009
Nick
April 22, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Skipworth, in my team, is an upgrade platform, so I feel uncomfortable turning him into a rookie, creating another position needing an upgrade.
I do have Garlet and heard he twisted his ankle in the VFL this week, so I don’t suspect he will be back in the AFL anytime soon. Trading him in would mean I’d be able to turn Skipworth into Harvey, which is great, locked another keeper, but there’s no way to do it without risking having a 2 game 86,600’er linger on the bench for 15 weeks.
Alternatively, my opponent this week decided to jump on the Hadley and Harding bandwagon back when, so if form stays then he’s going to trade Skipworth into a gun with his $1,000,000 left over cash. His forward line doesn’t have any cover, he’s too proud to cop a zero.
I should beat him and the only reason I’m considering trading is that I don’t expect Boomer to be this cheap again. Does anyone have any reason to believe he will only just score his break even this week? That would allow business as usual but raise another issue. How can you get three of the downgrades next week in at once?
Robinson could throw a spanner in the works by slogging out a smooth 80 and 15 contested possessions.
Bleh
April 22, 2009 at 4:26 pm
Good job Monty.
However I don’t think Hartlett’s position is all that safe to be honest. The reason being is that the Burgoyne boys and Cassisi will return and several people need to make their way out of the side.
Ben
April 22, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Nice review.
Don’t think you need the silly names for the positions , considering that there hasn’t really been much to cry over – plus it makes you sound as immature as a teenager. Injuries occur every season…
I’d suggest the better SCer’s generally don’t mind a few injuries to key players anyway – greater scope to find a way around it – something other SCers may not be able to do effectively. Cream rises to the top, so to speak.
Rusty
April 22, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Nice one Monty, but Hartlett was pick 4 behind Watts, NickNat and Hill. I think he will get an extended run. Choco is sick of all the Daniel Rich talk and wants to show Hartlett off.
Sezchuan
April 22, 2009 at 4:54 pm
well la di da Ben..
that little spiel certainly made you come across as a grade A w@nker.. good work.
Daniel
April 22, 2009 at 4:58 pm
I think upgrading skippi now to Revolt is an excillent decision if you can afford it
Brad
April 22, 2009 at 5:18 pm
Is downgrading Skippy to Warren to give you enough coin to upgrade Krakour to Revolt a stupid trade?
mEnty
April 22, 2009 at 5:23 pm
@Brad,
IMO, yes.
Brad
April 22, 2009 at 5:34 pm
@ Menty,
Thanks for the decisive answer.
pascoe
April 22, 2009 at 5:36 pm
great rap monty…u are a real champ
Anton
April 22, 2009 at 5:39 pm
Let krakour fatten up I reckon then jump on buddy all the way for very little !
Brad
April 22, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Thanks Anton.
brownmans muffins
April 22, 2009 at 6:05 pm
good work as always Monty
I”m looking to palm Skip off for Harvey. I’m more bull than bear on that one.
Franklin is going to become a muffin in a week or two. His volatility means he can wait a bit.
Good notes re Broughton & co. I’ve only got him & Suckling on the bench (petrenko starting) since r1 and am just riding the bumps hoping they emerge in their respective teams.
Mitch Robinson is settled in hacktown, which is disappointing. Rich is a keeper for mine, Otten an upgrade in a few weeks, by which time Anthony should be back & Mitch we get de-listed.
Interesting re Ballantyne.
I’ve generally thought that even the extra $40k to bring in a frontbum, hartlett, grimes, yarran etc etc seems steep for mine unless A) you’re definitely going to keep them and or B) you are confident they’ll consistently outscore & play more often than cheaper options – such a crapshoot.
Wardy
April 22, 2009 at 6:28 pm
I’m also in a position to upgrade Skip to Nick … but have decided … Robinson out for Pendles & Petrie out for Cox
Pick up 2 guns & still got Skippy on bench
Sure it leaves me short on cash, but thats what Skippys sitting on (to a degree with Hogan & Steele)
Howie
April 22, 2009 at 6:33 pm
Nice A grade work Monty,
@ Hairy, why are you so concerned at what men look like, does that make you a male model, or just an immature fag.
@Ben, you are a real clown, probably never played footy if you think people like seeing star players get injured. We all know how you know the cream rises to the top. You take many baths.
J Edgar Hoover
April 22, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Get a haircut Hairy, you pinko commie wingydinger!
Howie
April 22, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Have decided to probably make my move with skippy this week, I dont think either Roo or Boomer will be this cheap anymore so its time to capitalise. Ideally wouldve like to keep him for another 3-4 weeks though the word is it is a 4-5 week injury. I have used 3 too many trades already this season but feel i cant let Brown or Walker hold up the last forward line possy for that long.
I reckon it will all make sense when the teams are named Thursday
Disco (UK)
April 22, 2009 at 6:50 pm
I think there’s plenty of room/games for Yarran in the Blues team. Don’t think his output will differ from Walker/Brown thou unless he wanders up to the midfield, like Rioli did last season.
Have held out on trading L.Anthony since he is my 9th mid and I had Rich/Beams. Hoping he matches the ca$h output of A.Otten, who I missed out on. But it may give me a somewhat unique position in circa 10 rounds time, since alot of people traded him.
Woofta
April 22, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Disco, your unique position theory is flawed. In order to cash a cow you have to trade in a rookie. Anthony should be the perfect rookie to trade in. If you kept him he is not a trade in option.The fact that you have allready traded him out is irrelavent.
Pete
April 22, 2009 at 7:11 pm
I have been thinking downgrading Leuenberger for Meesen in my 3rd ruck spot to free up some cash so I can upgrade Skippy or Hentschel. Leu is out for 11 weeks and Meesen seemed to do an OK job on Symo.
But I am serious thinking that a trade in the ruck is madness (Hence grabbing Leu as 3rd ruck in the first place)
Can someone talk some scene into me.
Wardy
April 22, 2009 at 7:29 pm
Pete: picture this … you’re walking along a secluded beach. A bearded man in a Buddy gernsey approaches (no, he’s not jogging) He slaps you once… “whats that for” you reply. “Thats for selecting Leu” he replies before slapping you TWICE , with a bit more gusto, “and thats for thinking of replacing him with Meeson” before you ask……..
Ahhh, I hope this scene helps 😉
Nathan
April 22, 2009 at 7:30 pm
I agree with a few others. If you have the $ or another downgrade trade to make it work, then why not upgrade Skipworth to a Keeper now? In SC, Riewoldt, Pav, Buddy and Harvey are about as cheap as they are ever gunna get. And Hodge is cheap if you have Skippy in the mid.
Ask yourself, was Skippy a mid you were gunna turn into a keeper at some stage? If so, then why not now?
At the end of the day, each person has to decide their own strategy. I’m not into wasting trades, but I also back my judgment of when to pull the trigger or not.
Pete
April 22, 2009 at 7:37 pm
LOL… Thanks Wardy! and Nathan.
Resch
April 22, 2009 at 8:05 pm
I think if you have a chance to wait on Skippy it is the right thing to do. Similar to trading only after teams are out – allow yourself the maximum time to assess things.
I will be waiting a week.