Col. Kurtz is nothing compared to the nightmare in fantasy defences… again. The horror, the horror!
To all of those who thought devotees of all-premium back lines were playing last year’s game: Ha ha! Now look at the mess we’re all in. Those of you who toyed with stacking your backline but hung with the strategy hardcore, and did not succumb to temptation and put Andrew Raines in as #7 back like I did, are now laughing all the way to the bank. That is, they are laughing if they also avoided the nasty pitfalls like Nathan Bock‘s club suspension for allegedly slapping his girlfriend at a nightclub, or Jordan McMahon‘s Bowden-like dropping, or Heath Shaw‘s suprise round 1 omission, or Adam McPhee‘s suspension this week.
As often happens, the feeling among fantasy coaches as to which position contains the strongest rookie class waxes and wanes each week of the preseason, and by the time lockout came around I was detecting a distinct love towards the forwards, a cooling off of love towards the midfielders, and a slightly sunnier disposition to the defenders. As it has turned out, there are four excellent starting midfielders that you would love to have in your squad, starting at least two of them each week so far: Daniel Rich, Mitch Robinson, Andy Otten and now Dayne Beams. In the forwards, Jack Ziebell has been so-so while Mitchell Brown and Taylor Walker haven’t risen above bench fodder, as most of us suspected. In the back line, however, the stocks are surely depleted more than we would have suspected. Michael Hurley got injured, Lachie Henderson and Nathan Grima have been unsighted, Matthew Spangher got dropped, Stephen Hill and Nic Suban have been less than startable, and Greg Broughton has been mouldering in the WAFL (albeit the press is reporting both Broughton and Matt DeBoer as coming in this week). The only truly bright spots in fantasy defences have been Kyle Cheney and Jared Petrenko, both of whom are facing issues with selection in the coming weeks. Cheney has to stave off the return of Matthew Whelan, who was off the Demons injury report this week with his calf problem and will apparently line up in the magoos this weekend, leaving one more week of Cheney action before he has to dodge a selection bullet. In the little bloodnut’s favour is a complication to Paul Wheatley‘s condition, which has graduated from a calf to a quadricep injury that will linger on for at least another six weeks. Petrenko has to contend with the imminent return of Brad Symes, although the injury to Chris Knights may ease the squeeze there a little. Then there’s Alex Rance, who at least nominally is holding Will Thursfield out but could also be replaced by McMahon depending on matchups, especially this week considering the lack of height in the Bulldogs forward line.
What does all this mean? It means that those of you who haven’t got the dosh to upgrade Raines to a Sam Gilbert, Paul Duffield or (cough) Leigh Harding are going to have to burn two trades to change your structure a little. My philosophy on changing your structure is that if the two trades you make in a week to do it solve four problems at once, then it’s okay. I have seen some talking about sacrificing a mid-pricer or keeper who is just performing so-so, like a Jed Adcock. Personally, I have Brent Reilly in my Dream Team, so let’s use him as an example. I haven’t liked the look of his first two games, to be honest. I was expecting him to have a deeper fitness base than what he looks to have developed. He has gone missing for what seems to me like entire quarters – like two DT points in Q4 last week and another two points in Q3 of round 1. The temptation for me is to downgrade Reilly to Andy Otten, and use the cash to upgrade one of my backs to a keeper. I have enough money in DT, after trading Raines to Cheney last week, to now sell Broughton and get Xavier Ellis. Alternately, I could reach all the way to Brendan Goddard or Sam Fisher if I bypass Otten for David Zaharakis or Beams, and leave Broughton and sell Hill. Any of these double-trade options would be solving four problems: Reilly sucking, Otten/Beams not being in my side when he’s an obvious cash cow, Hill/Broughton not being good enough, and my #7 back being a terrible hole in my structure.
The other reason I think that changing your structure in week 2 is not a stupid move is that if you look into the future, it’s going to be a lot better to concentrate your cash cow culling in the centres because there are a bunch of good kids who look at this point to be debuting later in the year. Liam Anthony himself is likely to make his delayed debut somewhere in the month before the split round. Luke Shuey and Tom Swift will probably get their chance somewhere around there too. Sam Blease is still a fair way away, and the Steele Sidebottom buzz has died down for the moment. The talent pool of late debuts in the backs is nowhere near as promising, leading me to think that it may be prudent to plan to keep your back rookies in your squad for the duration, Nathan J. Brown style.
On the flip side, there are some players who I wouldn’t want to waste in a double trade like this. I learned the lesson last year with Xavier Ellis and Bryce Gibbs that it is often the right move to stick fat with high-upside players who have middling starts, because those with natural ability (notably both top 3 draft picks, those two) often have excellent second halves, as both those two boys did last year. Travis Boak and Matthew Leuenberger may be two such players from the class of 2006 that it would be dangerous to pull the trigger on, with Chris Masten and Patrick Dangerfield similarly placed from the 2007 draft.
How about you lot, are you lighting a bomb under your structure and blowing it to the shizenhousen, or are you defending the ramparts against the orcish hordes? What are you going to do, or have already done, about Raines? How many trades are you using in the first two weeks, and are you sorry if you held back last week, with more bad news coming down the track this week as predicted? Perhaps most crucially, are you hanging onto the likes of Raines (2 weeks), Brad Ottens (4-6) or Bock (1 to who knows) and leaving yourself open to the 2009 equivalent of the Joel Bowden disaster? Tell me in the comments.
astrofrankie
April 9, 2009 at 3:35 am
whats this talk about Goddard underperforming? he’s my number 1 back (with waite) and I thought he was going ok, cant expect 140 every week. (s/c, don’t play d/t). Can’t imagine anyone trading him. Bock is obviously a different issue. I think he will get just the 1 week and come back even better than he was (if thats possible). alot of players have renewed attitudes after this sort of thing. think dane swan after his fed square incident, his next year was his break out year.(speaking as a pie supporter, not fantasy coach) Didak has bounced back and looks even classier this year as does A. Lovett. (I’d reckon andy krakouer would be dominating in the rec yard too). So i’m definitely keeping bock, have had him for years.
As for sideways trades, I was pretty close to trading boomer for leon davis and wells to dal santo(still have 20 trades) but its possible both my outgoing players will outscore my incoming players so went against it and will hold on to them. with beams playing now and looking like he will keep his spot (what a great debut, just snuffed out by zaharakis for r/s nom.) i think i can nurse L anthony till he plays though im sure if zaha plays another cracker the temptation will be to strong. have rich and otten also, hill(my only regret selection) broughton and cheney down back,( please play this week broughton) standard ruck rookies, with brown and walker warming the forward bench. got lucky by avoiding the early injuries (only anthony of course) and if my luck can hold out am looking forward to making plenty of trades in the last 7 rounds to absolutely storm home. currently ranked 5000 odd.
ps. love you work monty, but bit worried about marcus the supercoachcoach. can you ask him if he can score me some dakha.?
ImSoHood
April 9, 2009 at 3:37 am
trade now yea … but dont chase scores. hindsight is certainly not a wonderful thing
jazz
April 9, 2009 at 3:50 am
i have barry hall, and i sideways traded him for fevola just now. i hated doing it, but i took a big risk on hall, and the sight of him coming off sore against the hawks nearly made me punch someone. i have other underperforming 400 k players (SC) such as adock, j selwood, deledio etc, but i am not gonna trade them after 2 rds. hall is injury prone and old, and i really needed a solid 2 game performance early to keep him.
Dicko
April 9, 2009 at 3:59 am
Got Raines, Hill, Bock, and Broughton in my backline.
Will trade S Tuck (who I swapped for Gibbs in a moment of madness two days before the first lockout and have regreted ever since)for Rich. I have Beams, Robinson and Anthony already. Then I will trade Hill for Harding and retain $125,00 cash.
So tempted to trade Gibbs back in but all this would do is fix my earlier error not my backs.
astrofrankie
April 9, 2009 at 4:18 am
jazz,
You’ve been ripped off. I paid 550K for Delidio, but I got a gun, who will not only lead me to supercoach glory, but who i would never ever trade. He was my first player selected. (son of god doesn’t count because he’s not a selection, he’s a pre-requisite) For 400K, you must have bought a cheap china import. Poor man pays twice.
Buy Australian Made.
Hall and Adcock? gee, you were taking risks. Don’t suppose you had Henshel and Lucas too. Right move with Hall though, the Fev was my 2nd picked.
Findlay
April 9, 2009 at 6:35 am
I am WCE fan and have Mark Nicoski in my back line, against the advice of a friend.
Still I put him in as he scored well DT wise in the NAB Cup. And while he hasn’t backed that up in the first two home and away rounds, I will retain him as at 263,700 he fits into my budget for backs and will play games consistently I think.
Leathal
April 9, 2009 at 9:03 am
As a richmond fan, was disturbed yesterday to hear (from a strong source within the club) that Raines wont be back until rounds 6-8, If true is it worth keeping him on the bench?
Charlie
April 9, 2009 at 9:40 am
@ XztatiK & Benno and others…
The reason I think most of these sideways trades are bad ideas is two-fold:
1. The coach has done weeks of homework and planning. They’ve picked 30 players for certain reasons. Then just because a gun has 1-2 quieter games (ie. Harvey, Dalziell) or a player has probably his two best games of the year (ie. Harding), they decide to throw common sense and their homework out the window and chase last week’s points. (remember: Lids had two shocking weeks at the start of last year and ended up the 7th best player! How many wanted to trade N Brown last week…then he scores 130.)
2. This is a rare week when almost all player’s prices are about to change BUT you’ve had a look at them play. Shouldn’t this week be used to shore up the cash cows and rooks now we know who is good / bad? ie. Make sure that the players whose prices will rise are the ones you’ll want to be trading. Consider:
Harvey will come good and earn well. But maybe he gets 5-10pts a week less than you hoped (ie. 100-200 over the year). Harvey’s price is irrelevant as there’s no need to trade a gun. Harvey plays every week, every season. Price irrelevant.
vs
Trade a dud rook for a better rook: you’ll earn an extra 1,000 – 1,500pts and $250,000 that you CAN use for an upgrade to ANOTHER gun later on. It seems so obvious that this is a far better use of the trade this week.
Maybe this is all wrong, but this is the way I look at it.
Fatty
April 9, 2009 at 10:04 am
(SC) Traded Masten for Gibbs as Masten MAY come good while Gibbs already has. I also traded out the injured Otto for McIntosh, saving myself 60 Grand.
Last week I traded out Cousins (what was I thinking DOH) for Rich. 3 trades down already with 200k in the bank but I still have Raines and Hentschell limping around on my bench. If Broughton can get a few games I might keep Raines until he comes back in.
Five injuries in the first eleven matches of the year hasn’t helped.
Fats.
Lyndzel
April 9, 2009 at 11:29 am
Yesterday there were claims that Ablett had been injured at training. This was confirmed by Monty. Today all traces of this news has been wiped from the site. Whats the deal?
lenny
April 9, 2009 at 11:57 am
in a similar position with my backs. trading collier to cheney and raines to houlihan.. thoughts?
Mr Gor
April 9, 2009 at 12:03 pm
IMO, this week of trading should be used to make money. Sideways trades should only be used in the case of (for example) Malceski for Harding, where a guy around the same price is going off. I have Pavlich and am EXTREMELY tempted to get rid of him but I figure I’ll hang on… for now.
I have Shane Tuck, and after watching both of his games I’ve decided he has to go (too many cheap possie getters at Richmond), and that his $404k price tag can be used on either Gibbs or yet another cash cow. I Already have Beams/Rich/Otten, and was thinking of manging up Hocking. Then I could use that extra kesh to upgrade Raines to a premium back to help cover for Bock.
That way I’d be solving 4 “problems”:
Getting rid of Tuck who I don’t think will cut it, gaining a cash cow, getting rid of Raines (who isn’t a great DTer anyway), and solidifying a crumbling backline with another premium.
The backline needs premium dude!! PREMIUUUUUM….. DUUUDE
(Sorry for the long post, I know nobody really cares about my team/trades, but still..)
hamish
April 9, 2009 at 12:05 pm
@ lenny.. trade collier to hurn and raines down to either cheney/petrenko/suban, all are avging around the same
tom
April 9, 2009 at 12:44 pm
well im phucked, my defence at the moment (before trading) reads
Goddard
S.Fisher
Mackie (going schit)
Bock (susp. indef)
Raines (inj)
Grimes (inj)
Rance
Hill (maybe dropped)
Broughton (not being picked)
Scott
April 9, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Trade Joel Selwood for Mitch Robinson and Hentschell for Richo. Stupid?
James
April 9, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Now Duffield’s been named in the WAFL team for tonight’s game so another back bites the dust. Typical Harvey keep Hill in to spite his critics and drop Duff.
Tim
April 9, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Scott – yes. Just going around in circles. Two trades to cover a rookie who will miss 3-4 games????
'Cho
April 9, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Keep it simple….
the real stuff hasn’t even started yet!!
Scott
April 9, 2009 at 1:10 pm
It wasn’t to cover as much as move a premium from the mids where rookies are rife to the forwards where rooks are scarce.
I guess the question is, is the scoring potential difference between Joel Selwood and Mitch Robinson greater than the scoring potential difference between Hentschell and Richo, and is that difference worth two trades?
Dicko
April 9, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Scott – Got to agree with Tim
Scott
April 9, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Ahhh, fair enough. Doesn’t hurt to throw these ideas out there…
zedman
April 9, 2009 at 1:42 pm
traded hill out for houlihan cos if its a windy day a subiaco hill might get blown away!
Guido
April 9, 2009 at 1:57 pm
@Scott…. good choice – J.Selwood has started slow and is a premium player that will bring you great rewards! Hold onto him…
@Zedman – nice way of words, might have to tie a leash from Hill to the goal posts
@everyone else… why all this sideways trading!? you buy a premium player for a reason: they’re premium players! don’t swap them for a mediocre player thats played two red hot games and looks to gain $30k after the weekend, you’ll regret it later when this mediocre player starts scoring what they’re really worth!
matt
April 9, 2009 at 1:58 pm
i’ve got problems with my main problems are with knights hentschel and raines; backline is cornes goddard hodge adcock houlihan hill cheney (int) broughton raines
thinking of downgrading raines to petrenko, then upgrading knights to dane swan. would that be worth the two trades? it seems to fix four problems.
Brendan Smith
April 9, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Im Pulling the Trigger this week:
DT
Out Ottens
Out Raines
In Gilbers
In Kossie
SC
Out Harvey
Out Raines
In Richo
In Kossie
Thoughts?
'Cho
April 9, 2009 at 2:00 pm
29/30 playing this week which is FINE. Can’t wait to see the revised values next week…
wardy
April 9, 2009 at 2:00 pm
I love all these sideways premium trades. Nothing cheers up my day more then getting on fan footy and reading about people who are trading out harvey in richo. Burn those trades people..burn burn burn
Stu
April 9, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Scott – Very interesting idea, has merit, but I don’t think it’s worth 2 trades.
hairy
April 9, 2009 at 2:06 pm
broughton to play in the wafl for another 3 weeks hes been told. if his form is still up a surtain then.
Michael
April 9, 2009 at 2:07 pm
m0nty, you heard anything bout S. Stevens? – i put him in my SC after he was getting all 100s in the NAB.
Guido
April 9, 2009 at 2:14 pm
@hairy – where did you hear this? talk has been that broughton was a likely inclusion this week?
Roddy
April 9, 2009 at 2:23 pm
i had raines, spangher, h.shaw and henderson to start with,
traded henderson for collier, and put raines on my bench along side petrenko, and i kept shaw in hope for a apperance in the 2nd round (round 1)
then collier didnt play rd.2
so… i put collier on my bench, put petrneko on the field
and spangher didnt play, so i traded, spangher for cheney,
then i had ottens and he did his knee, so i traded him for jesse white, hoping he can back up his 103 against the hawks this week
then i traded dawson who was on my bench for ryan houlihan
in all my backine has been a disaster
Gooser
April 9, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Pulled the trigger last week on Raines and direct swap for Gilbert.
Couldnt continue to carry Wells so had to make a double trade with Hodge to bring in Waite and Judd.
Averaging 2173 to the moment so should increase this week with Wells out.
Bollocks
April 9, 2009 at 2:39 pm
@ Gooser – utter madness!
Trading out Hodge and Wells! Unbelievable.
Michael
April 9, 2009 at 2:42 pm
agree at bollocks
Heater
April 9, 2009 at 2:49 pm
I know its been said before but why the &%$#!! are people trading out players after one bad game!!!??? Fancy even thinking about getting rid of J.Selwood or Hodge. Fair enough getting rid of Wells (he is a dud) but these other two; I simply cannot work out the thinking behind it………..
The3rd
April 9, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I dumped Dalziel, but i wasn’t comfortable with him in my SC. DT yes, he racks up possesions. SC, not worth 500k in my opinion.
Does anybody know what the go is with Scott Stevens? Im assuming he should be back this week..
I don’t want to have to play Suban and Hill again.. I’d rather cop a double donut than be put through that pain again.
Charles Carmichael
April 9, 2009 at 3:20 pm
In regards to Greg Broughton, this snippet from the West today:
“Cossom replaces defender Greg Broughton, who has been promoted to the Dockers for the first time.”
So I would expect him to be named as an emergency and may get a game depending if Hayden is fit.
Mr Gor
April 9, 2009 at 3:22 pm
someone said Ablett did a hammy??? what??
Sydney Muppet
April 9, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Can anyone tell me what the deal is with Ryan O’Keefe? Has he got the sooks for not being traded? He should have scored bigtime against hawks. Considering trade for Skipworth and pocket cash. Any thoughts?
Tim
April 9, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Yeah, Ablett rolled his ankle at training and now has a shoulder-related hammy.
Last week Judd, this week Ablett….
ShrewDext
April 9, 2009 at 3:28 pm
@ Gooser
You’re averaging 2173 whilst carrying Hodge and Wells.
Imagine what you could be scoring when Hodge and Well were to contribute? Now you will never know.
Good luck running your race in the first 10 Rnds. You will be traded out of the game at the pointy end unfortunatly.
Smit
April 9, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Houlihan & Gilbers should be certainties, best value picks in the backline. Broughton has to play sooner or later, they have nothing else….
Scott
April 9, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Heater, I wasn’t suggesting trading out J. Selwood because he’s a dud, I was suggesting trading him out to move the cash into my forward line. Effectively swapping Selwood for S.Johnson to swap Hentschell for M.Robinson.
Anyways, I’ve decided to go for the safer, less contraversial trades of Hill out and Hentschell for whomever is listed.
oddsok
April 9, 2009 at 4:01 pm
lol @ Richard(dick) Head taking the piss.
I’m probably going to trade out Hill for Cheney. Don’t like the look of his BE of 55. Will pocket some cash in the process.
Still not sure if I’m wasting a trade though. I have no real need to trade Hill, but I’m unsure of his cash cow potential at this point in time, whereas Cheney is a definate cow.
'Cho
April 9, 2009 at 4:16 pm
can we ban clowns like this?
inside mids chop. Bartel captain
Bomber
April 9, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Did you see the Freo website Mark Harvey came out and said he’ll continue to play Hill and Suban whilst Broughton is the man knocking on the door. Good for everyone who has either of those 2!
Fudd
April 9, 2009 at 4:27 pm
Downgraded Bartel to Robinson and Ablett to Beams i now have an extra $824,000 in the bank!!
hairy
April 9, 2009 at 4:33 pm
dockers have people like des, mayne, haydos, gilly all coming back in so it doesnt leave much room for broughton. broughton would have to get some best on ground performances in a row to get a start.
hairy
April 9, 2009 at 4:34 pm
fudd you are a moron