Col. Kurtz is nothing compared to the nightmare in fantasy defences… again. The horror, the horror!
To all of those who thought devotees of all-premium back lines were playing last year’s game: Ha ha! Now look at the mess we’re all in. Those of you who toyed with stacking your backline but hung with the strategy hardcore, and did not succumb to temptation and put Andrew Raines in as #7 back like I did, are now laughing all the way to the bank. That is, they are laughing if they also avoided the nasty pitfalls like Nathan Bock‘s club suspension for allegedly slapping his girlfriend at a nightclub, or Jordan McMahon‘s Bowden-like dropping, or Heath Shaw‘s suprise round 1 omission, or Adam McPhee‘s suspension this week.
As often happens, the feeling among fantasy coaches as to which position contains the strongest rookie class waxes and wanes each week of the preseason, and by the time lockout came around I was detecting a distinct love towards the forwards, a cooling off of love towards the midfielders, and a slightly sunnier disposition to the defenders. As it has turned out, there are four excellent starting midfielders that you would love to have in your squad, starting at least two of them each week so far: Daniel Rich, Mitch Robinson, Andy Otten and now Dayne Beams. In the forwards, Jack Ziebell has been so-so while Mitchell Brown and Taylor Walker haven’t risen above bench fodder, as most of us suspected. In the back line, however, the stocks are surely depleted more than we would have suspected. Michael Hurley got injured, Lachie Henderson and Nathan Grima have been unsighted, Matthew Spangher got dropped, Stephen Hill and Nic Suban have been less than startable, and Greg Broughton has been mouldering in the WAFL (albeit the press is reporting both Broughton and Matt DeBoer as coming in this week). The only truly bright spots in fantasy defences have been Kyle Cheney and Jared Petrenko, both of whom are facing issues with selection in the coming weeks. Cheney has to stave off the return of Matthew Whelan, who was off the Demons injury report this week with his calf problem and will apparently line up in the magoos this weekend, leaving one more week of Cheney action before he has to dodge a selection bullet. In the little bloodnut’s favour is a complication to Paul Wheatley‘s condition, which has graduated from a calf to a quadricep injury that will linger on for at least another six weeks. Petrenko has to contend with the imminent return of Brad Symes, although the injury to Chris Knights may ease the squeeze there a little. Then there’s Alex Rance, who at least nominally is holding Will Thursfield out but could also be replaced by McMahon depending on matchups, especially this week considering the lack of height in the Bulldogs forward line.
What does all this mean? It means that those of you who haven’t got the dosh to upgrade Raines to a Sam Gilbert, Paul Duffield or (cough) Leigh Harding are going to have to burn two trades to change your structure a little. My philosophy on changing your structure is that if the two trades you make in a week to do it solve four problems at once, then it’s okay. I have seen some talking about sacrificing a mid-pricer or keeper who is just performing so-so, like a Jed Adcock. Personally, I have Brent Reilly in my Dream Team, so let’s use him as an example. I haven’t liked the look of his first two games, to be honest. I was expecting him to have a deeper fitness base than what he looks to have developed. He has gone missing for what seems to me like entire quarters – like two DT points in Q4 last week and another two points in Q3 of round 1. The temptation for me is to downgrade Reilly to Andy Otten, and use the cash to upgrade one of my backs to a keeper. I have enough money in DT, after trading Raines to Cheney last week, to now sell Broughton and get Xavier Ellis. Alternately, I could reach all the way to Brendan Goddard or Sam Fisher if I bypass Otten for David Zaharakis or Beams, and leave Broughton and sell Hill. Any of these double-trade options would be solving four problems: Reilly sucking, Otten/Beams not being in my side when he’s an obvious cash cow, Hill/Broughton not being good enough, and my #7 back being a terrible hole in my structure.
The other reason I think that changing your structure in week 2 is not a stupid move is that if you look into the future, it’s going to be a lot better to concentrate your cash cow culling in the centres because there are a bunch of good kids who look at this point to be debuting later in the year. Liam Anthony himself is likely to make his delayed debut somewhere in the month before the split round. Luke Shuey and Tom Swift will probably get their chance somewhere around there too. Sam Blease is still a fair way away, and the Steele Sidebottom buzz has died down for the moment. The talent pool of late debuts in the backs is nowhere near as promising, leading me to think that it may be prudent to plan to keep your back rookies in your squad for the duration, Nathan J. Brown style.
On the flip side, there are some players who I wouldn’t want to waste in a double trade like this. I learned the lesson last year with Xavier Ellis and Bryce Gibbs that it is often the right move to stick fat with high-upside players who have middling starts, because those with natural ability (notably both top 3 draft picks, those two) often have excellent second halves, as both those two boys did last year. Travis Boak and Matthew Leuenberger may be two such players from the class of 2006 that it would be dangerous to pull the trigger on, with Chris Masten and Patrick Dangerfield similarly placed from the 2007 draft.
How about you lot, are you lighting a bomb under your structure and blowing it to the shizenhousen, or are you defending the ramparts against the orcish hordes? What are you going to do, or have already done, about Raines? How many trades are you using in the first two weeks, and are you sorry if you held back last week, with more bad news coming down the track this week as predicted? Perhaps most crucially, are you hanging onto the likes of Raines (2 weeks), Brad Ottens (4-6) or Bock (1 to who knows) and leaving yourself open to the 2009 equivalent of the Joel Bowden disaster? Tell me in the comments.
Shagz
April 8, 2009 at 8:55 pm
I’m thinking of trading Hill to either Cheney or Rance and then Raines up to Houlihan. I’d still have 18 trades then and would hope not to have to touch the backline again till cash cow culling time.
What are your thoughts on either Cheney or Rance? Already have Broughton and Petrenko.
oddsok
April 8, 2009 at 9:02 pm
@Bob:
It is only lost money if you end up trading them once their price has dropped. And Goddard is going to drop as much as any of if not more. Bad move.
Batesy
April 8, 2009 at 9:03 pm
Monty – Coaches Box tonight?
Macca
April 8, 2009 at 9:03 pm
I like Sam Gilbert and picked him before Rd 1
I think Leigh Harding will do a similar role so I would pick him now before his price goes up.
Or cash him in with Grimes when he comes back from injury
Even if you upgrade him later its not a bad solution (wasted trade)
Of course I didn’t have Bock or Shaw in my backline so it was a blessing.
I note a comment somewhere that taggers are becoming obsolete so the likes of Gibbs and Selwood will get more possession than last year.
If Rich plays well enough I might even upgrade him to Selwood (WCE) if he continues to rack up the numbers like that.
ronl
April 8, 2009 at 9:04 pm
@da gansta
At first thought Malceski would take up Kennealy’s role as defensive sweeper, but not quick enough.. round 2 much better when they moved him up the ground, SC problem is that he’s too much an outside type, but I’m sticking with him, hope he might average 85-90ish…
m0nty
April 8, 2009 at 9:06 pm
Indeed yes, a Coaches Box tonight.
Barry
April 8, 2009 at 9:18 pm
Should I trade Raines or hold onto him?
Was thinking either trade this week for Gilbert.
Or hold until Jed Adcocks price drops
Brady
April 8, 2009 at 9:33 pm
Think i will get rid of hill for Houlihan, good move? reckon Houlihan will stay in the team and produce “ok” scores?
XztatiK
April 8, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Yeah Reilly is an interesting one monty. He is one of the fittest guys at the club but is certainly having some fade-outs lately. He’s not taking as many marks, or laying as many tackles (apart from Q1 R1 where he had four) as I was hoping for.
Ash
April 8, 2009 at 9:44 pm
Josha,
rich for kerr (kerr dominated in round 2)
Andy
April 8, 2009 at 9:50 pm
Firstly I think everyone who has Dalziel should trade him out now, because judging by his game last week he has suddenly realised that its not natural for a young-un like him to score so many 100s so early, so trade away people… then maybe buy him back in a few weeks when he smashes it again… their just trades and you have so many of them…
Also can anyone give me any info on Broughton playing this week? Any links to articles etc?
mcwarne
April 8, 2009 at 9:51 pm
I have seen it all now. I figured that seeing as you run this site Monty, you would be well experienced at playing DT. I havent done a single trade and anybody who has done even one at this early stage is either nuts or 14. Yeah and I am carrying Raines, Broughton, LAnthony, Hentschel and others but surely this game is about short term pain for long term gain. See you all at the finish line. Oh yeah, no I wont!!
Denim Dan
April 8, 2009 at 10:00 pm
Leigh Harding….
Hmmmmm such a tasty topic
Potentially an early cash cow and upgrade to a bock/fisher in a few weeks?
I need to pull out my rifle and start culling some eagles (ie sphanger and butler), they jumped on my DT train early this year but their tickets are well expired.
Butler > Zaka
Spanner > ??? Leigh harding??? (Crinches)
cdrobert
April 8, 2009 at 10:00 pm
yeah i went with Reilly as well. i think i will stick with him a bit longer. its not like hes not get the ball. a few more marks would help his score
vagiant
April 8, 2009 at 10:14 pm
I’ve gone Harvey to Richo
Drum to Lake
Dissapointed with drum as he was a smokey i thought would payoff
Jimmy
April 8, 2009 at 10:14 pm
This week of dream team is doing my head in.
still deciding on whether to trade
Haselby > Hocking
Hill < Harding
Then trading Hocking in about 4-6 weeks time for a keeper
Or
Hill < Gilbert and keep a trade then maybe Haselby to T.Tuck next week.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated
craig
April 8, 2009 at 10:15 pm
I am sticking to my guns and not trading in Houlihan despite everyone’s love for him. Personally I hate him. Think he’s crap, and only doing OK because Carlton have been gunning it… (not that this is a bad thing to do in DT if Carlton keep gunning it, which i am sure they will do, so maybe I’m the crap predictor, oh well)
You can all pick him up. In fact i think i’m the only person in one of my leagues without him.
Similarly i don’t think Harding’s form will last. Gun or rookie from here on out. None of this drop an out of form gun, pick up an in-form or back from injury or new role playing twat.
craig
April 8, 2009 at 10:19 pm
Oh and just to add, yes monty i did the premium backline like you. Worked brilliantly! Only out in my backline has been Raines. Hodge, Lockyer, Fisher, Cornes, Adcock all loving it up. Laughing at how broke other people’s backlines are. Not worried at all with Hodge or Adcock. Don’t care about 2 games performance.
drFaust
April 8, 2009 at 10:25 pm
I’m suffering from Bockopalypse Now and Hamburger “Hill”.
My bench consists of Broughton and Hurley so I’m thinking that Hill=>Houlihan with my spare $$ is probably a must while I wait for Bock to come back and tear it up for the rest of the year.
Cam
April 8, 2009 at 10:28 pm
hehe, still have 8 playing backmen with Broughton the only one not playing. No trades and none planned as yet.
Huge Action
April 8, 2009 at 10:35 pm
Raines will struggle to get back in the side. as a tigers supporter he is referred to as ‘the butcher’ by us for his shocking disposal of the ball. he is a turnover king and may find it hard to get back into the team. here is one that hopes so for the sake of the Tigers.
Lee
April 8, 2009 at 10:44 pm
I traded out L.Anthony and A.Raines for D.Rich, K.Cheney and a cash boost after Rd1. After Rd2 I traded out Hasleby (who i’ve always been uneasy about) and S.Hill for Zakharakis and L.Harding and yet more cash.
I’m overloaded with Rookies – Petrenko, Cheney, Broughton, Beams, Robinson, Rich, Zakharakis, Jacobs, Garlett, Walker and Brown (WCE).
Jacko
April 8, 2009 at 10:51 pm
i was lucky enuf to have hill, raines, bock and heath shaw(shud have read something bout his 1st rd ommision), also had ottens…
Peter
April 8, 2009 at 10:56 pm
@ Bob – you’ve missed the point completely! Bad moves.
Tim
April 8, 2009 at 11:00 pm
I can’t believe how many people are doing sideways guns trades. Absolutely insane. Trading Dalzeill, Harvey…just staggered so many people keen enough to muck around on these sites would break almost the number #1 no-no.
As said above – it matters not if their prices slip for a while, you bought them for long-term points, not price rises. Your team value is meaningless.
Guys – don’t do it!!!
bummer
April 8, 2009 at 11:22 pm
Nothing to do with backs but have a dilemma, ottens hurt and cant decide between Kreuzer or Gardiner
dylan
April 8, 2009 at 11:25 pm
go for kruezer bummer..
backs suck this year.. Hill rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
warren
April 8, 2009 at 11:35 pm
does any one think wade thompson will get a game anytime soon ? i made a huge mistake an got jacky from adelaide, thinking he would make the adelaide 22.
Tim
April 8, 2009 at 11:36 pm
Isn’t Ottens only out for 2-3 weeks? Who are you’re bench rucks?
Jacko
April 8, 2009 at 11:40 pm
ottens is 2-4 and hes old so i would think at least 4
craig
April 8, 2009 at 11:43 pm
Btw monty just noticed breakevens are listed next to match previews wicked! Cheers again for all your hard work 😉
1kendog
April 9, 2009 at 12:22 am
Mattner
Bowden
Newman
Rance
Drummond
Harding
Kite
Mcphee
Raines
I’m playing too many rookies and Drummond is too injury prone but it’s alright. Kite’s not going to play 🙁
Brendan
April 9, 2009 at 12:24 am
All I can say with regards to the backline situation is … DO NOT GET THE JAKE KING OF 09, especially when he is like at his peak price (Man why oh why did I do that … Damn u Bowden) … In fact, DONT GET BLOODY KING
bummer
April 9, 2009 at 12:50 am
I have ottens n my bench is spencer,browne. i have to upgrade that spud hill so have to choose between kreuzer or gardiner.I have already 100 so can upgrade hill to harding
Da Gangsta
April 9, 2009 at 12:57 am
@ronl thanks for that. That’s what i was hoping you would say. Will hang on to him!
AdamG03
April 9, 2009 at 1:26 am
I can’t believe people are getting rid of Dalziel.
He scored 60 against Carlton, but didn’t Nathan G Brown score 57 against Carlton the week before? And Deledio 85.
This is before they ripped Geelong open for 135 and 111 respectively.
Carlton have been reducing DT scores pretty well so i am not worried about Dalziell at all.
However i am one who fell prey to the Backopalypse.
I actually had Harding before the year but instead went with Malceski (Who i think can still come good)
I have Hill, Suban, Broughton and Raines in those 4 back spots (2 starting, 2 bench)
IDEAS:
Raines -> Petrenko
Hill -> Cheney
Unlikely i will bring in two cash cows, probably just Petrenko.
Raines -> Petrenko
Hill -> Gilbert
Raines -> Petrenko and then wait a week for
Hill -> Rance
I’m lost
Help much appreciated
Thanks
AdamG03
pascoe
April 9, 2009 at 1:30 am
lol @ all u DT coaches who are trading dalziell after 1 poor game. you are all so stupid. gibbs won’t get anywhere near 150 each week and dalziell will get a lot higher than 60 each week. keep dalziell and he will provide good scores
WorstDTerEva4Life
April 9, 2009 at 1:33 am
If players in your team are about to drop price i.e. look at their breakevens. My advice is to trade them out for Rookies and cheap people coming back from injury like Haselby, Lucas, Malceski etc. trade those guys in and drop ppl like Pavlich for Lucas, Mackie for Malceski etc. then when those cheap guys go up again buy back Pavlich or Mackie for cheap and save yourself $40k. Definitely worth the two trades IMHO
Also ppl like McPhee that are out for a week are worth trading out cause if you get 1 zero in your backline you are SCREWED for the rest of the season. Donuts = fail @ DT. Even if you have rookies to cover on your bench you shouldn’t as they’ll only score the equivalent of a zero anyway.
Best bet is to use 10 or more trades in rounds 1,2,3 to pick up all those players who are in form now, as that will be the way for the rest of the season. People that have played crap in rounds 1 and 2 are never going to be the same as they were last year or a few years before that. E.g. Riewoldt is going to suck… and be the equivalent of a Medhurst @ the dockers. Harvey is going to be like a Mark Nicoski. Joel Selwood is going to break all his legs and be out injured for half the year.
Liam Quinn TMQ
April 9, 2009 at 1:44 am
i totally agree peter… Bob they are terrible trades!
To all the rest of you going into a trade frenzy… I pitty you all. Where have you all been for the last 4 years? Have you not learnt how important trades are? I agree with Tim.. It is staggering.
But by all means go ahead and trade!
Oh and to Andy… to trade Dalziel… wait til he drops in price and then trade him back in.. totally defeats the purpose of having limited trades. Don’t be wondering why you only have 21 fit players come round 18.
Liam Quinn TMQ
April 9, 2009 at 1:49 am
WorstDTer4eva- either some clever satire or you have absolutely no clue!
craigo
April 9, 2009 at 1:58 am
Schammer to Gibbs, what ya’ll think? dont wana do trade so early as schammer hasnt done that bad so far.
stop....hammertime
April 9, 2009 at 1:59 am
@EDDIE
I agree this round is when you can do sideways trades to discard players that you think will not benefit you in the long run.
OUT FOLEY IN ZAHARAKIS
OUT HILL IN S.FISHER
Foley i thought would step it up this year but he looks like it wont happen. Hill not up to AFL just yet.
Plus with Foley & Hill id be lucky to get 120 points a week whereas Fisher & Zara i think will net me 170 a week.
WorstDTerEva4Life
April 9, 2009 at 1:59 am
Wait i forgot to mention Darren Glass. Methinks this year will be his breakout year! 😛
WorstDTerEva4Life
April 9, 2009 at 2:01 am
@stop…hammertime…
WHY TRADE FOLEY NOW?
STUPID!
Why not wait another week. Take the price increase from foley and seem Zaha’s REAL form and then decide?
stop....hammertime
April 9, 2009 at 2:09 am
@worstdteva…talking SC …i dont see foley gaining any significant money to hold off trading.By doing this trade i can get Fisher to replace Hill on the field (Huge points difference) and Rich to replace Foley on the field(Rich is actually scoring more than foley).Ill be gaining approx 90 points extra p/week hopefully.
Im going for overall ranking so i think 2 trades well worth it.
back to you
benno
April 9, 2009 at 2:15 am
i think what’s becoming obvious this year is that dogma gets us nowhere.
“don’t swap premiums”, “keep your trades”, etc etc are just tired old lines. they probably also told clarkson “zones never work” [forget the hawks’ success this year for a sec].
anything goes. trade if you want. the point is to make it a smart one, and if you can’t then don’t trade. for instance, why is brad [7.18pm] wondering if he should trade wells for gibbs? of course, do it bros and do it now.
monty, good to see you back, i have similar troubles. 99 problems and a back ain’t just one. after fixing raines i now have hill, who will be dropped soon. answer? fix it. bring in hurn, unless gilham or ellis look better. ottens out? bring in jolly and cash in.
with the prices set to change, this the most important trade week outside the finals. trade now. cash in. then hold off for a while in the early rounds.
JMHO
XztatiK
April 9, 2009 at 2:41 am
Good post benno. spot on.
I’m sick of hearing all these rules/people not moving from their structures etc.
If you believe a trade is worth it then do it. There are no rules, let your points do the talking.
ImSoHood
April 9, 2009 at 3:02 am
trying my best to keep it cool … not being burnt in the backs as yet but have many backs i wish came with a crystal ball haha. decided razzle -> bryce with some left over $ was ok in SC, ive used just the 1 trade in a fortnight, & o’keefe -> didak in DT. rOk is collecting more snowflakes than he is kicks. may be eating my words eventually but the harding gravy train is merely that.
ps. fingers crossed for a boomer B.O.G!
Liam Quinn TMQ
April 9, 2009 at 3:28 am
You’re right Benno; it is an important trade week for sure. I just won’t be wasting them on short term glory.
WorstDTerEva4Life
April 9, 2009 at 3:29 am
Um… you don’t have Rich?@!@!#:P
You said Foley -> Zaha
Foley -> Rich is an entirely different prospect. How did you not have Rich? If not, what rookies did you have in the mids?! Are your mids too rookie-centric now? (Not that this is bad provided that there are at least 2 rookie trade down targets during the season.