Col. Kurtz is nothing compared to the nightmare in fantasy defences… again. The horror, the horror!
To all of those who thought devotees of all-premium back lines were playing last year’s game: Ha ha! Now look at the mess we’re all in. Those of you who toyed with stacking your backline but hung with the strategy hardcore, and did not succumb to temptation and put Andrew Raines in as #7 back like I did, are now laughing all the way to the bank. That is, they are laughing if they also avoided the nasty pitfalls like Nathan Bock‘s club suspension for allegedly slapping his girlfriend at a nightclub, or Jordan McMahon‘s Bowden-like dropping, or Heath Shaw‘s suprise round 1 omission, or Adam McPhee‘s suspension this week.
As often happens, the feeling among fantasy coaches as to which position contains the strongest rookie class waxes and wanes each week of the preseason, and by the time lockout came around I was detecting a distinct love towards the forwards, a cooling off of love towards the midfielders, and a slightly sunnier disposition to the defenders. As it has turned out, there are four excellent starting midfielders that you would love to have in your squad, starting at least two of them each week so far: Daniel Rich, Mitch Robinson, Andy Otten and now Dayne Beams. In the forwards, Jack Ziebell has been so-so while Mitchell Brown and Taylor Walker haven’t risen above bench fodder, as most of us suspected. In the back line, however, the stocks are surely depleted more than we would have suspected. Michael Hurley got injured, Lachie Henderson and Nathan Grima have been unsighted, Matthew Spangher got dropped, Stephen Hill and Nic Suban have been less than startable, and Greg Broughton has been mouldering in the WAFL (albeit the press is reporting both Broughton and Matt DeBoer as coming in this week). The only truly bright spots in fantasy defences have been Kyle Cheney and Jared Petrenko, both of whom are facing issues with selection in the coming weeks. Cheney has to stave off the return of Matthew Whelan, who was off the Demons injury report this week with his calf problem and will apparently line up in the magoos this weekend, leaving one more week of Cheney action before he has to dodge a selection bullet. In the little bloodnut’s favour is a complication to Paul Wheatley‘s condition, which has graduated from a calf to a quadricep injury that will linger on for at least another six weeks. Petrenko has to contend with the imminent return of Brad Symes, although the injury to Chris Knights may ease the squeeze there a little. Then there’s Alex Rance, who at least nominally is holding Will Thursfield out but could also be replaced by McMahon depending on matchups, especially this week considering the lack of height in the Bulldogs forward line.
What does all this mean? It means that those of you who haven’t got the dosh to upgrade Raines to a Sam Gilbert, Paul Duffield or (cough) Leigh Harding are going to have to burn two trades to change your structure a little. My philosophy on changing your structure is that if the two trades you make in a week to do it solve four problems at once, then it’s okay. I have seen some talking about sacrificing a mid-pricer or keeper who is just performing so-so, like a Jed Adcock. Personally, I have Brent Reilly in my Dream Team, so let’s use him as an example. I haven’t liked the look of his first two games, to be honest. I was expecting him to have a deeper fitness base than what he looks to have developed. He has gone missing for what seems to me like entire quarters – like two DT points in Q4 last week and another two points in Q3 of round 1. The temptation for me is to downgrade Reilly to Andy Otten, and use the cash to upgrade one of my backs to a keeper. I have enough money in DT, after trading Raines to Cheney last week, to now sell Broughton and get Xavier Ellis. Alternately, I could reach all the way to Brendan Goddard or Sam Fisher if I bypass Otten for David Zaharakis or Beams, and leave Broughton and sell Hill. Any of these double-trade options would be solving four problems: Reilly sucking, Otten/Beams not being in my side when he’s an obvious cash cow, Hill/Broughton not being good enough, and my #7 back being a terrible hole in my structure.
The other reason I think that changing your structure in week 2 is not a stupid move is that if you look into the future, it’s going to be a lot better to concentrate your cash cow culling in the centres because there are a bunch of good kids who look at this point to be debuting later in the year. Liam Anthony himself is likely to make his delayed debut somewhere in the month before the split round. Luke Shuey and Tom Swift will probably get their chance somewhere around there too. Sam Blease is still a fair way away, and the Steele Sidebottom buzz has died down for the moment. The talent pool of late debuts in the backs is nowhere near as promising, leading me to think that it may be prudent to plan to keep your back rookies in your squad for the duration, Nathan J. Brown style.
On the flip side, there are some players who I wouldn’t want to waste in a double trade like this. I learned the lesson last year with Xavier Ellis and Bryce Gibbs that it is often the right move to stick fat with high-upside players who have middling starts, because those with natural ability (notably both top 3 draft picks, those two) often have excellent second halves, as both those two boys did last year. Travis Boak and Matthew Leuenberger may be two such players from the class of 2006 that it would be dangerous to pull the trigger on, with Chris Masten and Patrick Dangerfield similarly placed from the 2007 draft.
How about you lot, are you lighting a bomb under your structure and blowing it to the shizenhousen, or are you defending the ramparts against the orcish hordes? What are you going to do, or have already done, about Raines? How many trades are you using in the first two weeks, and are you sorry if you held back last week, with more bad news coming down the track this week as predicted? Perhaps most crucially, are you hanging onto the likes of Raines (2 weeks), Brad Ottens (4-6) or Bock (1 to who knows) and leaving yourself open to the 2009 equivalent of the Joel Bowden disaster? Tell me in the comments.
Daniel
April 8, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Never been a big fan of premium backmen. Most of my backmen are mid-priced and rookies.
I saved $$$ from my backline and invested it into the midfeild ( All pre-lock out)
Going to keep raines, two weeks is not long.
Superfist
April 8, 2009 at 5:57 pm
I would have considered trading Hill if there was anyone decent to trade down to. In response to your “ha ha”, was that ironic? As it seems that the premium back strategy has more or the same amount of problems as a team with a few premiums a few mids and 2 – 3 rookies – there’s injuries or poor performers on every level. Sure you could have chosen the right premiums for your premium strategy, but for every P.Burgoyne (and admit it Monty you browned your undies when you saw him being helped off on Sunday) there’s a Bock or a Mackie.
korza
April 8, 2009 at 6:00 pm
Monty wtf
This is all like rocket science to me,it’s gonna take several reads before i can absorb all this info.
I am rating myself as an official nuff nuff,i upgraded Raines to Bock last week.Now i,m trading out for Harding.Watch him get floored at the 1st bounce.
Royboy
April 8, 2009 at 6:01 pm
I burnt Bock – not going to risk a player with off field dramas. Downgraded (if you can call it that) to Leigh Harding. Used the $40k to get rid of Dalziell for M.Murphy.
We’ll see how my SC team goes this week….
prentice
April 8, 2009 at 6:02 pm
Trading Hill to Cheney and Anthony to Rich. Praying that Cheney gets game time until Hurley recovers.
Scrow Tum
April 8, 2009 at 6:06 pm
im with Daniel monty wait for cash cows then upgrade your defense if you have rookies that are able to play likes of petrenko cheney and suckling are good replacements for raines until he comes back why waste trades this early 4 no reason
Nickelass
April 8, 2009 at 6:07 pm
What about rookie priced Suckling mOnty? Any chance of a return after his corkie?
rowshow
April 8, 2009 at 6:07 pm
who are the lock backmen this year? i have
Malceski
Bowden
Petrenko
Chornes
S.Fisher
Houlihan
Hill bench
Cheney bench
Is there a glaringly obvious lock backman this year?
Billy
April 8, 2009 at 6:09 pm
What about Dalziell? I bought him for a slight left fielder, but now I think im getting cold feet.
I know I shouldnt be trading but there are some firing Mids out there just waiting to be picked up!
Grahame
April 8, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Monty
Using two trades to upgrade backs. Raines and either Hill or Spangher gone for McMahon and Rance. Question: Keep Hill os Spangher??
Scrow Tum
April 8, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Could almost guarantee a start for suckling if he is fully fit clarkson loves him nikelass
Goldmoss
April 8, 2009 at 6:13 pm
I have Raines, Hill, Petrenko, Broughton.
This week I will make my first trade – Butler down to either Otten or Robinson.
This will free up enough cash to lift Hill to Duffield – but – will Duffield play 22, will he average the 85 he currently averages, will he become a premium…..these are the questions.
Think I will take the risk that 2 of Petrenko, Hill and Broughton plays rather than bringing the Duffman in as a keeper at this early stage.
The problem we are having, and always have, is that there are very few good back rookies, therefore very few trade down options throughout the year.
Im hanging on to the ones I have and praying.
Scott
April 8, 2009 at 6:23 pm
Is it stupid to trade Pav for Steve Johnson before the prices change?
Completely off topic I know…
korza
April 8, 2009 at 6:27 pm
@ Goldmoss
By the time you get your act into gear the horse would of bolted.
Coaches this year are over rating thier trades,(for the purposes of culling).In my honest opinion this year differs to previous as thier is not an even balance of rookies.
I say trade yourself out of trouble and cull your mids.
Tim
April 8, 2009 at 6:30 pm
I with mOnty here, solving a few problems at once.
Out Knights, In Otten. Out Hill, In Hurn. Leaves Anthony and Beams / Raines and Broughton on bench and fewer 22-selection bullets to dodge than other options. Also leaves $200/- to upgrade two cows in 3-5 weeks.
Also have Bock, but no need to trade him. If it’s two weeks, you don’t want to let him go. If it turns out to be longer, you can trade him to Hodge or Goddard in 2-3 weeks and probably make money as their prices are coming down.
themac
April 8, 2009 at 6:39 pm
Daniel Wells. Should he be traded? He is one of those that might just get 130 this week after doing poorly in the first two. A number of cash cows could come in. As mentioned above.
Thoughts?
CFC 1979
April 8, 2009 at 6:42 pm
Goldmoss – I agree hold onto the ones you have.
Peter G
April 8, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Monty, mate, are you doing breakevens this year?!?
I’m surprised you haven’t addressed the question as tonnes of coaches are asking. If you’re not, I would seriously reconsider – the player research function is diminshed by a large margin without BEs.
The3rd
April 8, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Theres probably a lot of SC people in the same position as me, so i’ll throw it out there.
Problem Players:
Hill. Raines. Hentschel. L Anthony. Dalziel.
My Thoughts:
Im most likely going to leave trading Hill until next week and see how Rance goes.
Hill could go up in price, and Rance might be a good pickup judging on his 2nd game.
I also have Raines and Hentschel.
In my opinion, im trying to avoid trading Raines as I have others to cover (Cheney, Suban Hill). So i’ll keep Raines.
However, is Hentschel worth keeping on the bench as well? Im so tempted to trade him, but theres nobody good to go to. Already got Krakour, Skipworth, Higgins, M.Brown & Walker.
Also Dalziel is driving me nuts. Thinkin of spending the extra 5k and getting Gibbs instead.
Is anyone keeping Dalziel..?
Not to mention Liam Anthony’s on my bench. Prob should be cashing in on Robinson before its too late..
So many thoughts…
Just had to vent
addicted2tradebutton
April 8, 2009 at 6:50 pm
I’m liking the Hill to Hurn trade and leaving Raines on the bench; rather than booting Raines for a geary/harding type.
Steve Barra
April 8, 2009 at 6:58 pm
I reckon Harding’s the way to go. Cheney and Hill simply cannot cut the mustard long term.
Bob
April 8, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Having problems with dalziel too, think i might hold onto him, ottens, anthony, raines and hill. Might regret it but one less trade now is one more when it really matters!
hadley
April 8, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Dalziell to Hadley
Bock to Gilbee
30k left over
Raines on Bench
Im pretty happy with that, your thoughts?
Josha
April 8, 2009 at 7:02 pm
I have unfortunately used 4 trades already, but I think they’ve all been worthwhile…
Rd 1
Kerr for Rich
Raines for Bock (bad luck with Bock, but should only be 2 weeks and couldn’t miss out on Rich)
Rd 2
Hill for Cheney (want the cash cow, Hill is no good)
Surjan for Harding (Surjan is costing me points every week, and Harding on fire in midfield)…
Ingoes
April 8, 2009 at 7:05 pm
I have a megastar backline, they’re underperforming (well, Hodge, Goddard and Bowden are anyway. Lockyer and Cornes are going alright). I decided to hang on to Raines and put Petrenko on the bench.
At the other end of the page, Harvey is giving me the showers but I have listened to reason and I’m keeping him. Instead, I’m downgrading Hentschel to a forward rookie (maybe Walker) and using the cash plus what I have in the bank to turn Grima into Harding.
This will give me a backline of Lockyer, Cornes, Houlihan, Goddard, Hodge, Bowden, Harding, with Raines and Petrenko on the bench. As long as Petrenko keeps a spot until Raines gets back, I don’t really think it gets much better than that.
I will have used 4 trades but my backline will be finished barring major debacle. I have plenty of cash cows/cover in the mids and forward line so I should then be sitting back till round 7 or 8 before I use another trade
Pete
April 8, 2009 at 7:10 pm
@ Hadley
The Dalziell to Hadley trade breaks almost every rule.
Sideways. Sacking a guy after ONE bad game. Getting an injury-prone player who’s scored above himself while 2-3 key ball-getters are out of his side.
mitch
April 8, 2009 at 7:11 pm
wen the FUkK will lachlan henderson play?
somebody FUKEN answer me for once
Josha
April 8, 2009 at 7:12 pm
IMO, don’t trade Bock, Hodge, Harvey or Dalziell.
They are your premium guns who you should keep til they get better.
My next trade will be Anthony for Beams next week, presuming Beams has another high scoring effort this round….
Pete
April 8, 2009 at 7:12 pm
@ mitch.
Your best bet is to probably ring Voss directly. I’d use that tone as well.
Brad
April 8, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Is Wells out Gibbs in a stupid move?
Is there anyone that can convince that Wells needs more time?
Appreciate you thoughts.
Chad
April 8, 2009 at 7:21 pm
I think Broughton coming in would be saving quite a few people (myself included). I had 6 premiums and houlihan, and last minute thought to go to raines to save the 60k, gees would be nice to have kept houlihan 🙂 But that is DT, you win some, you lose some.
Hindsight is wonderful, but as mentioned in dream team ruined my life, you know it is a low in your DT when you have to trade because your player slapped his misses on the piss.
Still tipping richmond for top 4 monty?
D. Laidley
April 8, 2009 at 7:23 pm
Guys, i promise i will start playing my rookies soon. All the talk about me being a dream teamers most hated coach saddens me.
hibbo
April 8, 2009 at 7:25 pm
Why are you all jumping off Dalziell after one game?? He smashed the pre-season and rd 1. Now after 1 bad game u all jump off him…have some faith, the guy is a ball magnet! DON’T TRADE PLAYERS OUT AFTER 1 BAD GAME!
Hadley- bad trades IMO, keep Dalziell- read above if u don’t know why.
Josha- All seem like worthwhile trades, just bad luck with Bock and not quite sure why u had Surjan in the first place? But i would lay off the trades for now (You probably already know that)…
Peter G
April 8, 2009 at 7:42 pm
Nice one, Pete.
Scott
April 8, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Does the ‘Don’t trade out your guns’ apply to Pav as well? His role has changed quite significantly. I don’t know if he’ll get back to the olden days…
jeremy
April 8, 2009 at 7:45 pm
If thinking of off loading Lucas for Ziebell, cause Lucas looks like sh!t, and also trading Raines for Cheney. What does everyone think?
dub's$men
April 8, 2009 at 7:46 pm
I love how people are trading out consistent performers after one bad round.. at the end of the season you’ll wish you hadn’t..
I traded Hill to Cheney in Rd1 and got rid of Anthony for Robinson.. might upgrade Raines to Houlihan in the backline but no getting rid of my underperforming backline guns (hodge, goddard)..
I also feel that Harding could be the McManus of 2006.. a great first 5 games, sucked heaps of coaches in to throw pie rounds from then on.. in my opinion im not jumping on the harding bandwagon yet..
dub's$men
April 8, 2009 at 7:51 pm
also.. did anyone besides me notice how many times haselby handballed rather than kicked… prob due to him getting the hardball and handballing out of danger.. is a worry tho that he got plenty of disposals but a shower DT score..
i will be keeping a close eye on him this week.. he’ll go up in value and then might flog him off for zakarakis or beams if necessary.. will also free up some cash for an upgrade later…
james
April 8, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Dalziel isnt a problem player thats stupid to trade him out. Had one bad game.. wasnt even his fault.. they just hit the beast that is carltons inform midfield.. Did you watch the 2nd qtr.. its was all carlton.. don’t think many brisbane players scored well against that tidal wave.. Remember he got 115 in his first game.. Brisbanes playing Sydney this week.. he might be down a bit.. As he gets most of possies in loose space..So i wouldn’t read too into this score this week either..
Hayden Churchill
April 8, 2009 at 7:57 pm
i am simply downgrading hasleby to either otten/zaharkis/beams and i have nerves about chosing the wrong one lol. Dont no whether to then use the money to trade hill or raines for waite. The clear choice was hill until i heard news that raines had complication to his surjery and may be out for another 4 weeks??
thoughts?
james
April 8, 2009 at 7:58 pm
But yes daziell is bad SC player racks it up in DT though.. but to get consistently 10-20 PPG less than his scores there gotta be something wrong there.. I didn’t pick him for that reason.. So yeh might be worth the trade to a decent SC notable scorer..
hadley
April 8, 2009 at 8:09 pm
hmm…
This is my SC team. I have been liking dalziell less and less. ( i thought he would be the next dan cross, but he has been dissappointing.) His outside play means the 28 disposals could still score <80.
Hadley on the other hand averages 8 tackles per game, and score from contested posesions. The likes of stevens and corrazzo will not affect his scores, he could average 100 , probably 90-100. And at his price he will alow me to upgrade bock.
The crows will be harsh on bock to send a message, i think he will be out for 4 weeks, and yes, including the ‘showdown’. I want to trade him.
ATM im thinking:
Dalziell to Hadley
Bock to Gilbee
30k left over
Raines on Bench
How about these trades, assuming i hold onto the dazzler…
Bock to Ellis
Raines to Houlihan
(leaving hill and suban on the bench)
72k added to the kitty.
What do u think?
oddsok
April 8, 2009 at 8:11 pm
I seriously considering trading Hill to either of Cheney/Petrenko, but I’m still not sure if I’m wasting a trade since I have 3 playing rookies in the backs(Hill, Suban and Rance.)
Brad
April 8, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Anthony out for Robinson seems obvious to me. Iv got Broughton, Hill, Raines, Petrenko in the backs. 30k in the bank. Ideas on who to trade for who would be appreciated. Cheers.
Da Gangsta
April 8, 2009 at 8:17 pm
Malceski has been dissapionting, does anyone think he will turn it around?
DS01
April 8, 2009 at 8:31 pm
Luke Shuey was placed on the Eagles LTI list this week.
lovepelican
April 8, 2009 at 8:32 pm
I have Raines, Hill, Suban and Broughton in the backline.
Last week, scraped by with Hill and Suban in team (although combined were nearly the same as getting a donut).
I am intending to make no trades and risk a donut or two. The main reason for this is that both Hill and Suban have played twice, albeit rather poorly. I hate trading rookies until they have at least played 3 games and made me a few dollars (I note these two may never make it to 3 games).
I think Broughton will get the nod (he has been very good in the WAFL)this week.
If Raines is back in two weeks I can not see any point in trading him for someone I never wanted in the first place.
Lastly, the approach means no trades used!!
Risky, I know, especially if someone else goes down (I have cover in mids, ruck (well White/Jacobs)and forwards so could take one hit in each of these.
Any thoughts on the strategy.
p.s I am not really thinking about the overall price, just winning my league.
sam
April 8, 2009 at 8:35 pm
wat about houli
is he gonna get a game coz hes forcin me 2 play hill in the starting backs
Bob
April 8, 2009 at 8:44 pm
In the end made two changes for both my teams:
DT – O’Keefe for Johnson & Malceski for Harding
SC – Mackie to Goddard & Dalziell to Gibbs
Yes i have traded out 4 guns but if i keep them in this week i would be looking at losing between 30k and 50k for each of them, that outweighs any of the cash cows I already have. They all had to go!
Eddie
April 8, 2009 at 8:51 pm
A lot of people say don’t trade now you will waste a trade but this is probably the only round where I think you can get rid of someone you think is actually not going to do what you thought.
I know only a couple of games make a season but after this week prices will dive and you may as well stick with them at that point whether they improve or not.
I call this fix a problem round. If your gut tells you you have stuffed up on a selection (particularly if they are worth some dough) fix it now or suck it up for the rest of the season.
The ONLY round in the year where this is a good idea.