The author of this blog has decided to take the risky route of a six rookie mid structure in SC this year.
As I set out in the Consensus posts this preseason, there seemed to be two main schools of thought on how many rookie-priced midfielders you could afford to start in your fantasy team this year. The safest option, according to the masses, was three starting and two on the bench. A small but stubborn minority, however, threw caution to the wind and decided to start four rookie mids, and I threw my lot in with them for the SC competition this year.
Brendon Goddard, Corey Enright, Ryan Hargrave, Jack Grimes, Luke Hodge, Tadhg Kennelly, Nick Malceski
Josh Hunt, Matt Maguire
Gary Ablett jnr, Adam Cooney, Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin, Michael Barlow, Ben Howlett
Jarrod Kayler-Thomson, James Strauss
Aaron Sandilands, Matthew Kreuzer
Robert Warnock, Matthew Lobbe
Adam Goodes, Nick Riewoldt, Lance Franklin, Kurt Tippett, Barry Hall, Patrick Dangerfield, Ben Warren
Carl Peterson, Mitchell Duncan
Brendon Goddard: No explanation needed.
Corey Enright: With no Tom Harley it was easy to see Enright getting more responsibility and thus becoming more of an SC player.
Ryan Hargrave: His poor round 1 score was more to do with the absence of Dale Morris than his own form. That frailty is a worrying development in and of itself, of course, but Morris should be back this week and so should his fantasy scores.
Jack Grimes: He lined up next to Hodge for many stoppages on Saturday, but didn’t show many signs of actually stopping him. If he is being groomed as a tagger, I would suggest to Dean Bailey that he look elsewhere. Grimes is much more suited to winning his own ball.
Luke Hodge: I knew he was going to cop a tag every week, especially early with no Shaun Burgoyne to take the pressure off, which would restrict his ability to get free for cheap marks, thus I had Hodge pegged as more of an SC improver. Once Burgoyne gets up and running I may well go for Hodge in DT later in the year.
Tadhg Kennelly and Nick Malceski: I have always loved picking Swans in SC due to the “Sydney Effect” – whereby both sets of players in Swans games have their SC scores adjusted up due to the typically low amount of possessions. It seems the four-rebounding-back structure that was so publicised in preseason was a furphy: Rhyce Shaw will run through midfield exclusively, while Martin Mattner will do tagging/defensive jobs both in midfield and up forward. Tadhg and Eski are the main men. Of course, having them both concussed in R1 is not ideal, but you can’t predict that.
Josh Hunt: I really like the structure of having Hunt as #8 back. His 80+ in round 1 may suggest he’s startworthy, and that’s certainly more true in SC than in DT on exposed form. All the same, I like the stability of leaving him on the bench.
Matt Maguire: Looked perfectly fine on the weekend if you ignored the knocks and bruises which seemed to affect him more than most. Brittle, of course, but from the #9 slot all you need is 8 games or so and he’s done his job.
Gary Ablett jnr: Started a little slowly on the weekend but then picked up pace like he was surfing a wave on a Gold Coast beach. He looked as good as a Gold Coast meter maid, to be truthful. The sun will shine on his owners like a Gold Coast winter’s day.
Adam Cooney: One of the more mystifying trends in the Exteam databases was the late swing away from Coondog. Early in the NAB everyone was on him as an underpriced premium, but later on it seemed everyone shifted their allegiance to Jimmy Bartel and there was no room left for the best player in the (allegedly) premiership-bound side. I can’t understand it. I like Cooney as an SC specialist, and I don’t really rate Bartel’s SC game seeing as he does tend to rack up uncontested stats late in junk time to boost his DT numbers. Perhaps some of you can tell me why you changed from Cooney mid-NAB.
Jack Trengove: I was on Mark McVeigh in this slot until pretty late in the piece. I heard one or two poor things about his standing with the coach – don’t ask me what – and got spooked on him.
Dustin Martin, Michael Barlow: Of course, of course.
Ben Howlett: The four-starting-rookie structure would normally be even more risky in SC than it is in DT because traditionally 18-year-olds do worse in SC. However, combining that structure with my big bet this year on mature-agers is hopefully a method to have it both ways. Howlett will make or break this team, pretty much, and he’s off to a good start.
Jarrod Kayler-Thomson: It is risky, no doubt. With half a dozen senior players due to come back into the Hawthorn side over the next month, there is a big chance that JKT will be dropped early. His ceiling, I would argue, is higher than any other player in this position.
James Strauss: Here’s another big risk. Structurally I don’t think it’s a bad move to take a slightly older player here, but perhaps the personnel could have been different – a Todd Banfield or Luke Shuey, maybe. But it’s easy to criticise with the benefit of hindsight (as I’m sure you lot will demonstrate in the comments!). Still too early to tell on this one.
Aaron Sandilands: I don’t think 211 can keep up the pace of 96% TOG – and that 4% off the ground coming only in Q4 junk time – but he’s got no competition in that Docker list for gametime, and he can dominate matches as he did on Sunday.
Matthew Kreuzer: Very happy with this pick, an excellent DT:SC ratio of 89:118 in round 1 shows his ceiling is high enough to make top two in total SC points this year behind Sandilands.
Robert Warnock: Conversely, an 85:47 ratio for Warnock shows that he’s bench fodder at best.
Matthew Lobbe: Only here to enable MPP.
Adam Goodes: Has always been an SC specialist and with his DT also on the rise, he should contend for most SC points among forwards again.
Nick Riewoldt: Naturally. Keep those soft frees coming, umps! 😀
Lance Franklin: Should stay a lot deeper in the forward line this year with Roughead rucking, which may hurt his DT but benefit his SC (and his team!).
Kurt Tippett: He is going to get double- and triple-teamed a lot this year playing inside 50 in tight games, which says to me free kicks, contested marks and big game-changing goals, all of which are SC gold. Plus he gives MPP security.
Barry Hall: It wasn’t a great start for BBBBBBH, but first up against Simon Prestigiacomo was always going to be tough. If 60 is his floor for the season, it’s going to be a good one.
Patrick Dangerfield: His owners were swearing and throwing things at the TV in the first half on Sunday as Neil Craig isolated Dangerfield in the goalsquare and completely destroyed his scoring. In the second half, he was released to midfield and ended with a nice score. He should be fine if he stays fit.
Ben Warren: Got pantsed by Chad Cornes and delivered a sub-50 in the wet, which looked poor. However, he’s only priced at 43.6 in SC, so if he scores that well when he’s beaten, his potential when he plays well still looks solid.
Carl Peterson: Here for a good time, not a long time. Exactly how long is the unresolved question.
Mitchell Duncan: Chose him over Peterson to sub for Franklin in R1, which robbed me of 35 points.
This line-up delivered 2207 in round 1, good only for 22,201st.
koray
March 31, 2010 at 2:49 pm
Oh Monty what were you thinking.
At least you have gone hard in the backs,a strategy you bagged me on the Monty’s Dreamteam.
shanboy
March 31, 2010 at 3:26 pm
the 4 rookie approach is risky and could work, however i think the rookies you have selected are risky, i think you could well have a 0 starting in the mids as early as this week….
boxfactory
March 31, 2010 at 3:51 pm
I like the gutsyness of the rookie approach not to mention the numerous uniques included, going to be a very profitable team with plenty of upside, like the method and your madness.
ps is it Big Bad Bustling Barry Hall? (what do the other B’s stand for)
pps what score did you get for this round?/team name?
DT=Life
March 31, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Hey M0nty I can confirm David Myers as playing this week for Essendon. could be marginally useful information given he’s playing Sunday so it could effect Howlett owners etc if they are on an extended bench. But anyway 100% sure he’s been told he’s playing.
megawatt
March 31, 2010 at 4:28 pm
@ boxfactory its same as his dt name ‘fanfooty edt’. and i think some B’s stand for better behaved bulldog or along those lines.
snowman
March 31, 2010 at 4:29 pm
great team monty… except i’m a little unsure of 3 of your mid rookies… still you beat my team by 50 odd points (with a 0 for Gray and a glorified 0 for GUMBY)
I like the Tippet/lobbe option however i didn’t want tippet taking up another forwards higher earning potential…
i have 2 big potential moves to make in the forward line this week, my doubts on a last minute swing to JKT (spot will be under immense pressure this and every week)… and a 4th ruckman that will NEVER play, but i’m 200% happy with the rest of my side!
megawatt
March 31, 2010 at 4:54 pm
monty your structure reeks of someone only concerned with winning their leagues. by the time your mid rookie brigade have matured and you are able to upgrade to 6 mid prems, the ship will have sailed as far as overall standings. whilst i appreciate the importance of winning your leagues, i’m guessing the bloke who wins overall rankings probably wins his league also. if you aren’t in any leagues and are going for overall rankings only, then one of us is a little lost.
DamenS
March 31, 2010 at 5:07 pm
Hmmn, I’m not sure what you mean by “in this position” regarding JKT – if you meant “rookie midfielders” I think Barlow has a pretty high ceiling !! I am one of those who jumped off Cooney and the main reasons were: Saw him playing a few times in the preseason and thought he looked fantastic – only to be surprised to find his Supercoach scores in the 70-90 range (not confidence inspiring especially when Higgins cam have 9 touches or something and get 100 points), also the WB are a very even team so the 3300 rule works against him, he is usually the first one to be tagged, his Supercoach averages in previous years have not been “Premium” level – apart from those 10 games or so in his Brownlow year and … perhaps most importantly, Luke Ball (new club, more game time) showed he could consistently score 120’s (at least in the preseason) at a lower price – and surely will not often be tagged in the Collingwood midfield.
megawatt
March 31, 2010 at 5:25 pm
while im here i think the tippett/lobbe option is a load of craap. if you don’t want to use warnock as 1st backup, why pick him? better off with an 83k rookie listed player, and use the 50k elsewhere, perhaps stanton instead of cooney. as snowman said, tippett is taking up a spot on the forward line which could be better used on someone else. if you are planning contingencys for when two ruckmen go down, well thats just thinking too far ahead of yourself, and wasting thinking time that couldve been better used thinking yourself out of a 6 rookie mid strategy.
megawatt
March 31, 2010 at 5:28 pm
love your work though monty, my first and generally only outside reference i use for SC.
wogboy
March 31, 2010 at 6:48 pm
gary ablett in sc…is a bit of a rip off….theres only one thing that u can do when u r at the top, thats to go down… i predict by the end of the season he will be in the low 600k
HintT
March 31, 2010 at 6:58 pm
I like your strategy Monty, I contemplated it myself but chose the conservative route and played 2 rookies. I think someone with 4 rookies in mid can win overall, especially if the likes of Barlow, Bastinac, Banner, Shuey, Martin etc can be getting consistent 70-80+ scores. That is just my opinion, I’ve only just started to get into SC properly this season, so I could be completely off the mark.
My only query with your side is why are you sticking with the Hawk duo on your bench? I think job security wise these guys are the most likely (and especially KT) to be dropped once stars come in.
Cool9
March 31, 2010 at 7:32 pm
Monty, love your insightful analysis …. and I thought your DT was superbly put together with the rationale for each selection really clear and strong. Which is why I am so surprised at the (lack of) quality in your SC team!
I would have thought with the aggressive 4 mid rookie approach (kudos for that by the way), you would have stacked the other lines with more talent. Surprised you fell for the Tippett MPP ’nuffer’ trap, leaving you with a sub-par FWD where a premium should be. Love your aggression in selecting Goodes. Josh Hunt is way too much coin warming the bench, Kreuzer is not the 2nd best ruckman, with 4 mid rookies the M2 should be a decent premium and not Cooney and, …. Ben Warren ?? – a nothing pick – neither a money-maker, nor a keeper.
Keep up the good work Monty
mdon11
March 31, 2010 at 7:44 pm
I highly like your team, but I will also answer your question in Cooney v Bartel.
Its quite simple, I rate Bartel higher, and he is less likely to get opposition attention than Cooney in my opinion.
Secondly I think Ball is a better pick than Cooney at that price range although over the season I could be proven wrong on that.
Overall I like your team, and think its a good structure.
m0nty
March 31, 2010 at 7:54 pm
koray: Malceski, Kennelly, Hunt, Waters, Ladson, Maguire and Silvagni all scored 70 in SC in R1. I wasn’t wrong about the value to be found.
koray
March 31, 2010 at 8:33 pm
Agree Monty but on the flip side Zeibell,Ballantyne,Dangerfeild scored 70/80/and 90.
Just out of interest Monts i’m trying to fly the flag for Fanfooty, ranked 194 in the competition. Team name StKilda.
koray
March 31, 2010 at 8:36 pm
Sorry Zeibell 110 in S/C
foolysik
March 31, 2010 at 8:54 pm
Monty, what was ur round 1 score? And what trades will you make before prices increase in round 3?
bootsdog
March 31, 2010 at 9:21 pm
monty gutsy thing to do with that many rookies in the middle but i dont think you have picked very smartly, Howlett and JKT’s job security is not there for many more weeks ass opposed to a bastinac and shuey
saladin
March 31, 2010 at 9:22 pm
monty, i also went with 6 midfield rookies in SC. trengove, barlow, martin, bastinac, schuey and jetta. All the SC teams look so similar, i wanted to break away from the mundane boring sides. I’m hoping for at least one of the mid rookies to have a slashing 5 weeks and with the spare cash i have left get into judd on a one-for-one swap. also reckon melksham will be looking at senior footy in the next 6-8 weeks, and cunnington later on, so downtrade targets will exist.
TheBaron
March 31, 2010 at 9:27 pm
Monty in your “Consensus Backs” post you encouraged people with the following message:
“First we will start with the backs, where my early message has been to go cheap, cheap, cheap. The mob seems not to have heeded my advice quite as much as they could have, though, because the most common structure includes four keepers and only three mid-pricers.”
It looks like you changed your mind on this one and have gone with 5 premium-priced players and two mid-pricers and only one rookie-priced player.
Any reason for the change of heart?
hoddo
April 1, 2010 at 12:26 am
I really can’t understand the reasoning behind having even 5 rookie mids, let alone 6.
Rookies are usually cash cows who are sold to upgrade middle tier players to elites. Even if one rookie mid turns out to be near elite in his first season, (Barlow might), it still leaves the task of upgrading 3 rookies all the way to elite. That will require a lot of income from the remaining cash cows and it will leave very little cash to upgrade the middle tier players.
I’ve gone with just the 3 rookie mids – Barlow, Martin and Bastinac – and I worry that might be 1 too many. They all did well in round 1. Most of of my elite and middle tier players had shockers of course, but that’s another story.
rileysucks
April 1, 2010 at 2:42 am
monty monety monty.
what were you thinking?
surely howlett cant get a start
i suggest you put more research into your future teams
DamenS
April 1, 2010 at 3:37 am
Well I agree with Monty on Howlett, but I would like to hear Monty’s answer on Cooney vs. Ball – also, WHY would anyone query Bartel ? Look at his past Supercoach scores (and consider that last year they used him in the back line to cover for Hunt) – who cares whether a lot of his possessions are in “Junk Time” – if he averages 115-120 in Supercoach, why does that even matter – it has already been taken into account by his previous scores …
lozza63
April 1, 2010 at 6:08 am
Monty – not sure where you get that 43.6 pricing for Warren, this score should have had him priced at 238
lozza63
April 1, 2010 at 6:13 am
Inadvertently sent before i finished.
Warren was priced at 260’900 which is roughly a 49.1 score, Taylor Walker/Chris Yarran was more the price range you suggested.
TP22
April 1, 2010 at 9:33 am
Your team will fly home.
Nice squad, wrong rookies in the midfield, but overall one that will challenge for a league win, regardless of the quality of other squads.
No chance to win $50k with the midfield rookie errors and the start you have given to the 3/5 or 4/4 midfield structure
tom_scully
April 1, 2010 at 10:36 am
Monty, interesting team. Seems you like the big men up forward. 4 KPPs should provide a real rollercoaster for you. Do you think you will have enough time/money to upgrade the mids? BTW how much did it score you in Rnd 1?
@koray, I will be chasing you down, I am in 366th at the moment with only 2 mid rookies to upgrade (unless Barlow or Martin become keepers)
penguins00
April 1, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Good side m0nty. A bit too risky for me, but the greater the risk the greater the reward.
I think Hunt is a good D7 and nothing else a little bit too much to sit on your bench for me. Especially with Waters Maguire Silvagni Nason all being solid bench options.
JKT is a brave choice. Not sure that he’ll last very long and with so many good options around it took guts. If if works out you’ll be sitting very pretty so good luck to you.
2207 being good only for 22,201 is a bit ridiculous. Looks like there’ll be strong competition for Supercoach this year.
Arky
April 1, 2010 at 4:09 pm
Ironically, I did the reverse- mid rookie strategy for DT, and midpricer strategy for SC (where, as you say, the 18 year olds don’t usually score as strongly as they can in DT).
I think you’ve tried a little too hard to have it both ways though. 4 rookie mids starting but still mid-price forward and back has left you with way too few true keepers for my liking.
Oh, and 2207 only being good for 22,201: no, it’s not a sign that competition is strong, it’s just a sign that round 1 scores were ridiculous. It will be back to normal eventually.
roosrule
April 1, 2010 at 4:13 pm
Monty – re: swing away from Cooney to Bartel. Maybe the theory from most fantasy coaches is that while Cooney is a great player he gets tagged week in, week out whereas Bartel has less chance of having someone mind him with the calibre of Selwood and Ablett around him. I had Cooney in my SC team last year and, while he did get SOME good scores, more often than not he was heavily tagged.
WashedUp
April 1, 2010 at 6:05 pm
Monty, love the website but not completely sold on your SC team. Midfield looks far too skinny. The last 3 are massively risky and the trade volume to convert it a substantial investment. Not that the score was terrible, but will they all continue to play?
On Cooney V’s Bartel= Bartel wins his own football and is surrounded by elite midfielders. It is almost impossible to stop that type of player scoring i.e Judd. Cooney is a little reliant on gifts from his team mates and allthough he is also surrounded by elite midfielders, they are not as damaging with the ball (cross cannot kick) making him more likely to wear the tag each week. Shane Woewodin won a brownlow too, and struggled into retirement afterwards!
marky
April 6, 2010 at 12:30 pm
average monty…….too many first year players…….