Carlton’s Jarrad Waite is on track for round 1 recovering from an ACL injury… but is he fit enough for fantasy?
I am breaking this second edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they are taking me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.
Richmond
FB: Chris Newman, Kelvin Moore, Will Thursfield
HB: Shane Edwards, Luke McGuane, Daniel Connors
C: Richard Tambling, Trent Cotchin, Daniel Jackson
HF: Ben Cousins, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin
FF: Robin Nahas, Graham Polak, Mitch Morton
Fol: Troy Simmonds, Brett Deledio, Shane Tuck
Int: Tyrone Vickery, Matt White, Dean Polo, Mitch Farmer
In: Polak, Farmer, Connors, Thursfield
Out: Angus Graham, Jordan McMahon, Alex Rance, Nathan Foley
Iffy: Thursfield, Farmer, Tuck, White
Waiting: Foley, Jayden Post, Tom Hislop, Adam Thomson
Injured: David Astbury, Benjamin Griffiths
Martin is the most locked-in of any rookie in 2010, and will also be locked into most fantasy teams as well. I have included both Polo and Farmer here – even though they are the sort of back pocket players who would normally fight for one spot with a tall such as Post taking the other bench spot – due to the large number of small forwards that Carlton will roll out in their midget forward line. Beware, thusly, of Farmer’s job security.
Polak will most likely get a senior list spot and a start on the opening Thursday, but I expect him to be very poor for fantasy purposes. I am projecting Foley to be fit for the start of the season but to start at Coburg due to his complete lack of preseason match practice. I expect Hardwick to use Vickery instead of Graham to exploit the lack of pace and flexibility among Carlton’s ruck stocks beyond Kreuzer.
As I said on the Coaches Box this week, it does look like Connors will be the second rebounding halfback alongside Edwards with Tambling moving to the wing, but what did Edwards do last year? Bugger all. Connors is a better player than Edwards, but I would be tempering my expectations, given that it’s Richmond we’re talking about here. Connors’ production will be somewhere between that of Edwards and Bling last year, and my bet is that it’s closer to Edwards than Bling.
Carlton
FB: Bret Thornton, Michael Jamison, Aaron Joseph
HB: Jordan Russell, Paul Bower, Heath Scotland
C: Kade Simpson, Brock McLean, Andrew Carrazzo
HF: Andrew Walker, Jarrad Waite, Chris Yarran
FF: Setanta O’hAilpin, Lachie Henderson, Eddie Betts
Fol: Matthew Kreuzer, Bryce Gibbs, Richard Hadley
Int: Robert Warnock, Marc Murphy, Ryan Houlihan, Mitch Robinson
In: Waite
Out: Shaun Grigg
Iffy: Waite, Murphy, Joseph, Warnock
Waiting: Shaun Hampson, Grigg, Kane Lucas, Dennis Armfield
Injured: Brad Fisher
Suspended: Chris Judd
Waite got through his first big test of the preseason with about a half of football on the weekend, so he deserves to be put back in the round 1 projected team. The same goes for Murphy though he still may not be quite right in time. I wouldn’t be picking either of them from the start of the season, though, as you just can’t be sure that they will (a) play 22 games given their lack of preseason and (b) score enough early not to go down in value. I like Waite as a second-half pick-up due to his multi-positional eligiblity to stave off donuts, though again you may run into the problem that players usually take two years, not one, to fully regain confidence after an ACL, so his ceiling may be a little low.
I am putting in Warnock over Hampson at this stage more for politics than form, as the Blues have invested a lot of money in the ex-Docker. His place could easily be replaced by Hampson or Sam Jacobs depending on the whim of coach Ratten.
Geelong
FB: Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Andrew Mackie
HB: Corey Enright, Harry Taylor, Josh Hunt
C: James Kelly, Jimmy Bartel, Cameron Ling
HF: Shannon Byrnes, Cameron Mooney, Steve Johnson
FF: Paul Chapman, Tom Hawkins, James Podsiadly
Fol: Brad Ottens, Joel Selwood, Gary Ablett jnr
Int: Mark Blake, Travis Varcoe, David Wojcinski, Tom Lonergan
In: J. Hunt, S. Johnson, Podsiadly, Lonergan
Out: Mathew Stokes, Max Rooke, Joel Corey, Ryan Gamble
Iffy: Lonergan, T. Varcoe, Wocjinski, Podsiadly
Waiting: Nathan Djerrkura, Steven Motlop, Mitchell Duncan, Jeremy Laidler
Injured: Mitch W. Brown, Rooke, Corey, Gamble, Marcus Drum, Simon Hogan
Suspended: Stokes (club)
Just quietly, the Cats are going into the season with a rather long injury list. It has gotten to the stage where Duncan might even be a realistic chance for round 1, especially if another small forward goes down. He looked fabulous in round 1 of the NAB, though he would be a longshot to keep his place in the side for any length of time, barring cascading disasters elsewhere on the list.
The Geelong hierarchy have been talking about a three-tall structure up forward all preseason, and they might be forced into using it from the get-go with the lack of Rooke and Gamble. That is where Podsiadly comes in, as the obvious elevation for Brown’s LTI.
Essendon
FB: Henry Slattery, Tayte Pears, Dustin Fletcher
HB: Andrew Welsh, Cale Hooker, Courtenay Dempsey
C: Ricky Dyson, Brent Stanton, Brent Prismall
HF: Alwyn Davey, Scott Gumbleton, Kyle Reimers
FF: Mark Williams, David Hille, Angus Monfries
Fol: Patrick Ryder, Jobe Watson, Jason Winderlich
Int: Jason Laycock, Heath Hocking, Bachar Houli, Sam Lonergan
In: Hille, Hooker, Houli
Out: Jay Neagle, Michael Hurley, David Myers
Iffy: Dyson, Houli, Hocking, Lonergan
Waiting: David Zaharakis, Jarrod Atkinson, Darcy Daniher, Kyle Hardingham
Injured: Leroy Jetta, Myers
Suspended: Nathan Lovett-Murray, Mark McVeigh, Hurley (club)
Some of the same old Bombers have the same old problems. Myers with yet another hammy on the weekend. Neagle just not fit. Gumbleton held together with fishing wire. Dempsey looking flashy but then going missing. This team is missing a lot of what you would call best 22 players through injury or suspension, but since when has Essendon ever been able to put its best 22 on the park all at once? Not under Matthew Knights’ watch, sadly. List cloggers like Dyson and Henry Slattery will continue to get games until Knights finds a magic potion… something to stop the rot.
On the bright side, it does look like Hille will be ready to play in round 1, though I suspect through lack of fitness he’s not going to be able to do anything in the ruck and thus will be completely pantsed by Scarlett as a stay-at-home full forward.
Blues_FC
March 8, 2010 at 8:16 am
Good stuff monty.
Connors, Podsiadly and Gumbleton will be on many watch-lists.
Tim2
March 8, 2010 at 10:48 am
Monty, how do you think Andrew Mackie is going to go this year?
Rob K
March 8, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Blues_FC – don’t do it – Gumble is high risk and little reward. Rockliffe, Pods, TDL and a few others are way too tempting to consider Gumby.
Tim2 – Mackie is locked in for me. I think he’s only 25 so he’s about to peak. And the Cats backline look like a retirement home (no disrespect Cats – you’re all younger than me). Also, he can kick so I don’t think Bomber will give him many jobs this year.
Great article Monty. Looking fwd to article 2.
Everyone get on Connors. He costs bugger all and it’s not that hard to be in the Tige’s best 22 this year. Plus he’s been TTHD.
How old is that Geelong side? Fruit!
No chance of Melksham getting a game? He’s not even on the waiting list. Like I think you said last year Monty : Essendon are as soft as plywood, so I reckon the Melk Man will feature early.
On an unrelated note, now that Taylor is out for 4 months, is Skipper the biggest lock of the year?
Monty – how much footy do you watch every week? I reckon I could commentate better than a lot of the spazzos on TV, but you have a ridiculous knowledge of footy.
m0nty
March 8, 2010 at 3:01 pm
I expect Mackie to be about the same, Tim2, which means he won’t quite get to gold premium status. The one to get on in that Cat backline is Enright, no question.
rkenny86
March 8, 2010 at 3:46 pm
Monty, which 2 of these cheap backs would you have in your starting line up: J.Hunt, Ladson, Kenelly or Raines? At the moment I have Ladson and Kenelly, but I think Hunt could go well
thatguy
March 8, 2010 at 3:58 pm
Monty,
love the work, is there any chance the depth charts will be updated before the start of the season?
m0nty
March 8, 2010 at 4:18 pm
I am updating the depth charts as I’m doing the v2 projections, thatguy. I’ll post about those separately.
hoever06
March 8, 2010 at 7:40 pm
Corey looks like he may play Round 1, according to the latest reports.
Prospector
March 8, 2010 at 11:33 pm
Wrapped to hear about the depth charts update m0nty. Great opportunity to do it.
Thanks for all this really solid work – I still reckon there’s no better site for fantasy footy info.
You rock m0nty!
Trav0
March 9, 2010 at 6:46 am
god i hope they dont play hocking and lonergan in the same team!!
Laycock vs Neagle for the FF/int spot is the interesting one! i think neagle will get the nod first!
bootsdog
March 9, 2010 at 9:57 am
monty, dont know if i really agree with your comments about essendon, could there be a little bit of annoyance after last years rnd 22 game..
you dawks supports are a very sad bunch
Arky
March 9, 2010 at 4:30 pm
Looks very reasonable.
Only quibble I would pick is that even you have picked 3 talls (Henderson, Waite, O’Hailpin) in Carlton’s “midget forwardline”, with Kreuzer to rotate through as well, so I would be playing Post ahead of one of those bench smalls.
The trouble with Connors is he’s listed as a mid, at the Scully/Trengrove price level. Between job security and scoring, how many rookie mids would you pick him ahead of? For mine, at the least, I would pick Martin, Barlow and Banner… then consider guys like Scully and Trengrove, and guys like Jetta and Bastinac who have much cheaper starting prices…
Vegas15Mag
March 9, 2010 at 7:29 pm
m0nty whether Joel Corey plays or not, Travis Varcoe is far from iffy – he’s been the standout of Geelong’s preseason and will probably play a lot more midfield than in the past. Could even make you some money.
R.Dyson.2
March 10, 2010 at 1:24 pm
wat do you have against dyson
grum88
March 11, 2010 at 12:44 am
Garlett no chance? surprising
Trav0
March 11, 2010 at 6:26 am
reading those comments on the bombers, we are missing Mcveigh and Hurley who you would call best 22 players, wow thats a lot of missing players.. everyone else that is missing is fringe at this stage.. dyson is best 22 right now i wouldn’t say iffy at all… hopefully he is iffy by mid year though otherwise there hasn’t been enough improvement from the younger players!
jmje76
March 11, 2010 at 10:32 am
how long is the McVeigh suspension?? 1 week?
bootsdog
March 11, 2010 at 3:43 pm
jmie76
yep he will miss the first week ..
godons16
March 15, 2010 at 6:57 pm
Not sure about your comments re Neagle, Gumby and Dempsey.
Bit of the latent Hawthorn hatred creeping in there I think.. not that Neagle’s a DT/SC pick anyway.
This year.