Collingwood’s John McCarthy is one of many cheap fantasy smokies putting their hands up for round 1 selection.
I am breaking this first edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they took me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.
Western Bulldogs
FB: Tom Williams, Brian Lake, Jarrod Harbrow
HB: Lindsay Gilbee, Dale Morris, Ryan Hargrave
C: Daniel Cross, Ryan Griffen, Josh Hill
HF: Robert Murphy, Mitch Hahn, Brad Johnson
FF: Shaun Higgins, Barry Hall, Jason Akermanis
Fol: Ben Hudson, Matthew Boyd, Adam Cooney
Int: Will Minson, Daniel Giansiracusa, Liam Picken, Callan Ward
Iffy: Williams, Hill, Picken, Ward
Waiting: Nathan Eagleton, Dylan Addison, Jarrad Grant, Andrejs Everitt
You may be wondering why Hill, Picken and Ward as listed as iffy given that they played 22, 22 and 19 games last year respectively, but that’s a measure of how settled this line-up is. 19 Dogs played 17 or more games in 2009, and only 48 out of a possible 462 spots were not filled by the 21 returning players (excluding Hall). Williams is the only real question mark in this team if everyone’s fit, and I had to leave out Eagleton who also played 22 last home & away season. The reason he gets the chop is that Hall displaces Minson to the bench as a specialist second ruckman. Rodney Eade may end up dropping one of Hill, Picken or Ward for the Bald Eagle depending on matchups, which is a tough choice to make.
As with a number of other sides who have topped up in the offseason, the future of a number of past and present draftees may be sacrificed in pursuit of the flag. Grant and Everitt would be playing regularly in a bottom 8 side by now. It’s a long preseason though, and injury may force the issue.
Collingwood
FB: Harry O’Brien, Simon Prestigiacomo, Alan Toovey
HB: Heath Shaw, Nathan J. Brown, Nick Maxwell
C: Alan Didak, Luke Ball, Leon Davis
HF: Dale Thomas, Travis Cloke, Tarkyn Lockyer
FF: Sean Rusling, John Anthony, Paul Medhurst
Fol: Darren Jolly, Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury
Int: Josh Fraser, Sharrod Wellingham, Steele Sidebottom, John McCarthy
Iffy: Wellingham, Toovey, Sidebottom, McCarthy
Waiting: Shane O’Bree, Tyson Goldsack, Simon Buckley, Ben Reid
Injured: Brad Dick
Apart from the battle between Toovey and Goldsack for that back pocket spot (with Buckley a smokie), the major selection interest here lies in the bottom end of the midfield group. I don’t think having Ball and O’Bree in the same side is a good idea, but by the same token I don’t think Malthouse would like having all three of Sidebottom, McCarthy and Dayne Beams in the side either. There needs to be one roleplayer on the bench to play a stopping role, which is why I have Wellingham in there, though that role could also be played by Jaxson Barham or Ben Johnson. I have McCarthy over Beams due to favourable training reports, though it’s still early doors.
On the big man side, some fans are already spruiking for Reid to take over from Brown at CHB. The decision may be irrelevant if Presti doesn’t have a good preseason, but apart from Dick’s shoulder and Cloke’s knee there aren’t too many injury concerns out of training reports. The recruitment of Jolly should hopefully mean the end of Leigh Brown in a Pie jumper, with Cameron Wood strictly back up. In the forwards, fans are also talking up Chris Dawes, and if Cloke doesn’t come up I’d like to see him or Brent Macaffer over Fraser (with Wood rucking) as the replacement tall attacking option.
Fremantle
FB: Roger Hayden, Chris Tarrant, Antoni Grover
HB: Adam McPhee, Luke McPharlin, Greg Broughton
C: Rhys Palmer, Paul Hasleby, Paul Duffield
HF: David Mundy, Matthew Pavlich, Chris Mayne
FF: Des Headland, Michael Johnson, Hayden Ballantyne
Fol: Aaron Sandilands, Ryan Crowley, Byron Schammer
Int: Stephen Hill, Nick Suban, Garrick Ibbotson, Dean Solomon
Iffy: Schammer, Solomon, Ibbotson, Suban
Waiting: Kepler Bradley, Anthony Morabito, Michael Walters, Scott Thornton
Injured: Tim Ruffles, Steven Dodd
Given the fact that Freo haven’t had a fully fit list to choose from for about four years, it will be interesting to see how the depth chart shuffles if Mark Harvey does indeed have all his weapons at his disposal for round 1. Palmer and Crowley are back into the midfield, but for the moment they are only replacing the departed Brett Peake and the injured Dodd. Matthew DeBoer and mature-ager Michael Barlow will compete to take the one rookie upgrade slot as back up.
I have not included Bradley as a second ruck here, even though he played that role a lot last year, because if everyone is fit at Fremantle then the structure should be Johnson rotating through the ruck, with McPhee, Grover and/or McPharlin providing forward support switching from the backline. This is a riskier strategy, especially against the Crows who do tend on the tall side, but the Dockers will need to counter the Adelaide runners so they’ll need a high number of midfield rotations.
Walters has apparently been noticeable at training, but I haven’t included him, preferring the older head and bigger body of Solomon to provide defensive pressure in the forward line to support Ballantyne and Mayne.
As for Morabito, who is in a fair few plan teams, he’s going to have to displace one of Schammer, Ibbotson or Suban. It can be done, but the job’s in front of him. I’m a bit more of a fan of Schammer than some pundits.
Adelaide
FB: Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Brad Symes
HB: Simon Goodwin, Nathan Bock, Andrew McLeod
C: David Mackay, Scott Thompson, Patrick Dangerfield
HF: Brett Burton, Trent Hentschel, Chris Knights
FF: Taylor Walker, Kurt Tippett, Jason Porplyzia
Fol: Ivan Maric, Bernie Vince, Tyson Edwards
Int: Nathan Van Berlo, Brad Moran, Michael Doughty, Phil Davis
Iffy: Davis, Moran, Doughty, Walker
Waiting: Brent Reilly, Shaun McKernan, James Sellar, Scott Stevens
Injured: Andy Otten, Brodie Martin
Adelaide looks to me to be one of the more settled 22s, with the vast majority of spots locked in barring injury. The good news for fantasy is that the injuries are already piling up. Bock is taking his good time in recovering from off-season surgery to his fractured heel. Dangerfield suffered a three-week medial ligament strain at training last week. Symes had a knee arthroscopy in December and won’t run until late January. Rutten (knee) and Van Berlo (back) also had interrupted preparations prior to Christmas.
Crow fan speculation, which is usually some of the most rampant in the AFL at this time of year, is centring around whether Davis is going to be able to stave off McKernan to replace Otten. As is often the case with Crow fans, though, they are talking up youngsters with no mind to Neil Craig’s long track record of relying on experienced players. The likes of Sellar and McKernan are being chucked into fan 22s willy nilly, whereas I’d bet on the safer, older options.
The structure is such that it’s a bit hard to find a spot for Davis if Symes, Doughty, Reilly and Stevens are all fit and in form. I have put him in there more or less in hope that one or two of those other four fall by the wayside. Davis is going to become a crucial part of many fantasy coaches’ multipositional planning this year, so his progress in the NAB will be closely watched by one and all.
toby07
January 17, 2010 at 3:08 pm
no way will s stevens be left out of the crows line up….seller and rielly will play also id say.
m0nty
January 17, 2010 at 5:03 pm
If you’re going to throw up names like that, toby, please suggest who gets left out to fit them in.
CamT
January 17, 2010 at 5:43 pm
What’s your thinking on Rusling, Monty? Have you heard something?
Danger_32
January 17, 2010 at 5:49 pm
I would say Sellar will get a game ahead of Moran and Stevens is of more value to the side than Davis.
armesy
January 17, 2010 at 5:59 pm
I would expect Stevens to be picked over Davis. Neil Craig is a big fan of his and as you’ve mentioned, young players don’t get much of a look in with us. Agree with the rest of the side.
Perhaps Rory Sloane may sneak a game also but I wouldnt know who he would displace. Symes maybe with Sloane to play a similar role to Otten last year.
toby07
January 17, 2010 at 6:59 pm
sorry monty stevens,sellar,reilly in for davis,moran and either hentchel or walker. thats only if everyone is fit and thats a big if.
JedMack
January 17, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Beams would be selected before Sidebottom and McCarthy.
Heater
January 17, 2010 at 8:19 pm
Beams will definately get a game before McCarthy.
Lets hope Leigh Brown does not get too many games but don’t hold your breath: he is just the type MM likes……!!!
Agree that Ball is better than O’Bree but not sure how this will pan out as again O’Bree is a fav of MM.
freo_sib
January 17, 2010 at 9:04 pm
You probably haven’t seen much of Suban but I wouldn’t call him iffy. He’s all class.
freo_sib
January 17, 2010 at 9:35 pm
This is my opinion…
Fremantle
FB: Roger Hayden, Chris Tarrant, Greg Broughton
HB: Paul Duffield, Luke McPharlin, Nic Suban
C: Anthony Morabito, Paul Hasleby, Stephen Hill
HF: David Mundy, Matthew Pavlich, Des Headland
FF: Chris Mayne, Michael Johnson, Hayden Ballantyne
Fol: Aaron Sandilands, Rhys Palmer, Ryan Crowley,
Int: Garrick Ibbotson, Michael Walters, Antoni Grover, Adam McPhee
Unlucky: Matthew DeBoer and Keplar Bradley
Matt DeBoer should come in quickly if Ibbo doesn’t get a bit more consistency.
freo_sib
January 17, 2010 at 9:41 pm
Oh Clancee Pearce is also unlucky along with a few of the first years.
Danger_32
January 17, 2010 at 10:58 pm
@ toby07
I agree with u about the 3 to come in but, according to an article in the Advertiser last week Hentschel is having a strong pre season and we may see him improve alot after having his first full pre season in 3 or 4 years. He didn’t get the nickname ‘Potential’ for nothing.
Also i think Walker needs to be given the chance to develop into the gun that he has the potential to be, and he won’t improve much more playing SANFL.
I would say Reilly may come in for Van Berlo as VB has really only just begun his pre season.
By the way, i’m loving the fact we have got some good footballers really fighting for a spot, good times ahead!
MtWav
January 18, 2010 at 12:05 pm
This is very useful for planning sides for mid range players but was wondering if you could do a post of players who would be good players to consider putting on our teams benches and last spot on the field.
morgs10
January 18, 2010 at 1:30 pm
Theres no way doughty is iffy, and i think stevens will def be in with moran and davis being iffy
FairDinkum
January 18, 2010 at 2:56 pm
haha MtWav!! come on mate u might as well just ask monty to compile a team for u!!! come on have a crack yourself or buy a prospectus
Kick2Kick
January 18, 2010 at 3:32 pm
Freo will keep Bradley in the line up due to his versatility and he is a better choice than Johnson, which says a lot….
asha1984
January 18, 2010 at 5:16 pm
Monty,
noticed u havent got many rookies starting in round 1, would be interesting to know how many debuted in round 1 in 2009 and compare it to 2010.
FLOPITOUT1
January 20, 2010 at 10:41 am
Hey freo sib mcphee not good enough for a starting spot lol,bench you reckon why did you bother with him then
chared
January 20, 2010 at 12:14 pm
You really dont like presti do you! remember last pre-season saying he wont play a game and them become a possible all-australian full back! Presti will be there round one and all year barring injury! O’Bree will also be playing! He is still a valued member of the side and will play ahead of Barham! Dont understand your obsession with Barham who in his few games has racked up the ball but has butchered it 90% of the time. Malthouse does not like players like that and unless his disposal has vastly improved he wont play and is still behind the likes of Wellingham, O’Bree and even that pest ben johnson! Let face it, Rusling wont be fit! just leave him out now! And even if he does play I think Malthouse still believes Leigh Brown has more to offer with his large size and mobility than Nat Brown. IN: L.Brown, O’Bree OUT: Rusling, McCarthy
m0nty
January 20, 2010 at 12:28 pm
It’s not that I don’t like Presti – I thought he should have been AA – it’s just that his body is very fragile these days, and there’s no guarantee he can get up for another year.
monkeytown
January 22, 2010 at 9:19 pm
Rhys Palmer is still yet to train with the main group for Freo.
I think it was the West Australian on Tuesday which said they had no plans of rushing him back for the NAB Cup and were not worried if he wasn’t ready for round 1. I think the quote was something like they’re aiming for round 1 but would like to have him in the team by round 5 at the latest.
Low match fitness could also see him spending extended periods on the bench.
Personally I just can’t see Morabito missing Round 1. I think Grover/Johnson/Mundy/Headland could be told to earn their spot in the WAFL. If Grover misses Johnson could go to the backline and Morabito could play across the HF line to add some size around the stoppages, he is a rookie but he is also 90kg.
I also don’t see Harvey playing Johnson at FF as he’ll only be taking space from Pav. I see Pav, Mayne and Ballantyne being the stay at home forwards with the rest playing further up the ground.
CamT
January 26, 2010 at 3:40 am
monkeytown … how come you can’t see Morabito missing Round 1? He missed the last half of 2009 with a thigh injury, wasn’t fit for the end-of-year draft testing and I heard he is still in the rehab group. Is he training with the main group now?
ulahoopski
January 27, 2010 at 12:57 am
There’s not a snowflake’s chance in hell that O’Bree won’t be in Collingwood’s best 22. He is the heart of that club.
In: O’Bree, Johnson, Beams
Out: Wellingham, Toovey, Rusling
FLOPITOUT1
January 28, 2010 at 10:41 am
Hey Monty why no R.Douglas in adelaide team is he injured? something i dont know ive got him in my team
Trav0
January 29, 2010 at 6:52 am
im not a collingwood supporter, but surely Rusling has to play atleast the first few games if fit!! considering the lack of goal kicking options!! otherwise whats the point of still having him! bombers are the same with gumbleton!
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BigV
February 6, 2010 at 1:17 am
ohhh!!! palmer
chadburger
February 10, 2010 at 1:13 am
There is no way Ward is iffy. Picken will be a regular again, as will Eagleton. Hill will miss more games than he plays, and expect to see Akermanis, Johnson and Hall all rested at some stage of the year. Roughead will definately play some games this year at the expense of Minson or a rested Hudson. A smokey is Thorn who may slot into a small forward role, or possibly Liam Jones at CHB to replace (an injured most likely) Williams.
chadburger
February 10, 2010 at 1:24 am
Ben Reid > Nathan Brown
Sidebottom > Beams >>>>> McCarthy
Rusling was fit and playing in the VFL midway through last year on a back flank. Sidebottom had a really good finals series which put him ahead of the great starting Beamns, and will not be dropped.
Josh Fraser will do big things this year with Jolly taking most of the ruck duties. I can see Jolly, Wood and Fraser all playing in the same team.