The fantasy hype machine is louder than ever this pre-season, but some don’t deserve spruiking.
Yes, if you hadn’t worked it out already, I’m going through last February/March’s blog posts and doing updated versions of the features I trialed back then. It’s not due to a lack of ideas – honest! – but something I want to get in the habit of doing every year to develop my predictive skills. In this case, the original version of this post wasn’t quite as successful as I would have hoped, with Brad Symes being a poor target, Marc Murphy just as bad but Chris Judd and Tadhg Kennelly redeeming me somewhat. Let’s hope I have a better strike rate this year.
Tarkyn Lockyer
One huge score in the NAB Cup against West Coast seems to have locked Lockyer into the hearts of many a fantasy coach, to the point where he’s in the top 20 in popularity among Dream Team starters on FanFooty’s books. It was just one game, people! Against the Eagles! I’m looking at figures that show Lockyer as more than three times as popular as Heath Shaw, which is ridiculous. Lockyer followed up that DT score of 149 in week 1 of the NAB with scores of 77, 52 and 66, so it’s not as if he’s getting towards Chad Cornes levels of scoring. Someone explain to me why you’re all Lockyering him in.
Trent Hentschel
Okay, he’s a risk that you know about, and significant numbers of you are taking. I don’t need to tell you all about his injury concerns and his lack of match hardness. But have we really seen the Crows midfield do anything this year? In the two competitive games Hentschel saw in the NAB – against Geelong and West Coast – “Trenty” couldn’t manage a score of 50 in DT, while you can discount the 74 against Box Hill and the 58 against Sydney’s skeleton squad. With the likelihood that Hentschel is going to play forward pocket while Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett gallop up the ground, can we rely on Hentschel to score anywhere near starting-worthy scores? I remain unconvinced. (I won’t discuss Scott Lucas, but consider all of the above going for him as well.)
Jarryd Roughead
I bet you thought I wouldn’t be potting a Hawks player in this article. Nyah! I see Matthew Lloyd has predicted that Roughie will kick a hundred goals this season. I like his attitude, but Matthew’s not the brightest spark in the AFL. I doubt whether Roughead will ever kick 75 goals again, under the new cluster-heavy game plans which will dominate the AFL for the next year or three. There was a window last year where the opposition hadn’t caught up to the rolling zone and Roughead benefited greatly from it, but in future you can expect a lot less inside 50s for the Hawks in general and – if it can be imagined, given how Lance Franklin-focused the Hawks were last season – less targets by the Hawthorn midfielders delivering to Roughead. Apart from that, there’s every chance that Roughead is going to be required to run up the ground a lot more to help out the undermanned defence, as he did in the grand final. I foresee less +12s in Roughies future, thus I think his popularity in 2009 for fantasy is inflated.
Chris Judd
Yes, Chris Judd again. He is still over-rated for fantasy. His groin problems are chronic, they’re never going to go away. He will never be the player he once was, scooting away from packs that have been knocked over for him by the Eagles’ muscle men. The Blues play a different style, more selfish and less accountable, which fails to include setting up their entire clearance game around the Magenius. He should not be bought at all in Dream Team, and he is a risk few should be taking in Super Coach. Yet many of you keep buying him year after year, hoping the old Juddy will somehow return. Wake up and smell 2009!
I’m sure you will want to argue over your favourites, especially you Juddites out there. Juddite rhymes with Luddite!
Disco (UK)
March 23, 2009 at 1:43 pm
Lockering him in? Coz he had a great average in 07, seemed to be hindered by injury in 08 so he played alot up forward and no Burns so more midfield action. However, I would like to know what his role was in 07 to achieve such an average?
Lloyd, LOL! I thought the same thing as soon as I saw the article intro! I was waiting for him to say “this year, banana’s will taste like pizza”!
Do or die for Judd in SC this year.
todd – give it a rest – Hodge is the complete footballer.
Jdog – good call. I think coaches are shitting their pants and knee-jerking to the cluster, they will over-react even further by tagging backs. Fisher will get the tag as Goddy will be more in the midfield.
andy – YES! m0nty should provide some alternatives to these could-be DT imposters.
wal – if that was the case, he would not have been drafted. Anyway, between Skippy and Roughead in the price list there its a bit baron.
Judd wrecked his groin when he won the brownlow, on R.Twigley, on behalf of all male viewers.
Lee
March 23, 2009 at 1:48 pm
azza – I couldn’t agree more! If you’ve come up with a winning formula, why on earth share it and let everyone else get a free ride? Surely the genuine DT contenders would be keeping their teams tightly under wraps? I doubt those “revealing all” and posting like crazy will be serious threats. Free advice is usually worth the amount paid for it! Besides, choosing a starting team is only one aspect. Successfully making value-adding trades during the season is where the real skill lies.
nick
March 23, 2009 at 3:02 pm
monty, regarding your comments about tarkyn lockyer. unlike many of collingwood footballers tarks is much more consistent. he normally racks up 20 odd touches a week and is capable of kicking goals. but then again he will not be in my team
Munty
March 23, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Ablett is over rated he has had one good season but that is all it was, not good enough to win the brownlow and didn’t stand up in the Grand Final. He is not a patch on Judd or many other proven performers
Clint-84
March 23, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Munty how can u say Ablett is over rated??? he dominates week in week out and is probably the only player in the league who can’t be shut down. if he didn’t miss 4 games towards the end of last year he would have won the Brownlow no doubt! and as for not standing up in the GF, he was one of only a few Geelong players who did, IMO he was probably close to winning the Norm Smith
hairy
March 23, 2009 at 4:03 pm
agree clint-84
Brad
March 23, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Munty is taking the piss, surely that is obvious!
You are arent you Munty?
Where would Daniel Wells be considered in this conversation?
He is being talked up all over the place as getting ready to become an absolute elite on baller in 09 but havent we heard that for about 7 years now?
Do you take the punt on Wells again or go for Gibbs at a similar price?
longa
March 23, 2009 at 4:34 pm
ur a joke monty. every1 nos juddy has had an unbelievable pre season. he avg 110 last yr in supercoach with a fukd groin. he’ll hav to improve in both comps this yr
Brett
March 23, 2009 at 5:05 pm
if only juddy took MORE than 2 marks per game. if he averaged 5-6 marks per game like the other elite midfielders, he would be a lock in most teams, especially supercoach.
Evan
March 23, 2009 at 6:35 pm
what do you guys think, drummond or adcock for 4th back?
beaup
March 23, 2009 at 7:03 pm
a: judd will cop first tag
b: his groin injury is osteitis pubis, very hard to shake with only way to fix it being rest. hard to see it not returning this season
c: if anything pick him in SC, not dt
Toddler
March 23, 2009 at 7:06 pm
What are thoughts on Paul Chapman?
Underrated/overrated?
Obviously injury risk, but gun small forwards and this new zone thing go hand in hand dont they!
darcy
March 23, 2009 at 7:10 pm
best dream team players usually cop tags
the very best like ablett seem to shake them
juddy seems to struggle dreamteam-wise, maybe just can’t get himself enough room for dt
Macca
March 23, 2009 at 7:25 pm
there are only so many good taggers in a team…so if you are going to tag a backman, then who will tag your midfielders
in a team like Geelong you’ve got to tag Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Chapman, Enright etc
Richmond is the same in Deledio, Richo, Cousin, Jackson, Tuck, Bowden, McMahon etc
so if you had to allocate taggers, it would still be on midfielders rather than backs because midfielders is more likely to be in a position to hurt you on the scoreboard
of course this remains theoritical
.
the lollipop kids
March 23, 2009 at 8:19 pm
i just wanted to say thanks for this resource monty it helped us greatly last year and will again i’m sure –
i just thought the many judd is better than hodge comments are pretty funny – Hodge is clearly a better kick, mark, goal kicker, spoiler, tackler, bumper and leader (on the field) – Judd is a better runner…
even better is Hodges 2005 SC avearge of 135.3 better even than Ablett in 2008 – it would be awesome to see top 10 ever lists, that is the highest average i’ve seen
don’t get me wrong Judd was a champion and should be very good this year but his best is in the past, it wasn’t as good as the true legends of the game and there are so many better players now, if you barracked for the Eagles apreciate cox who is amazing and Kerr who was amazing, if your a carlton man get on Gibbs, he is going to be brilliant in a couple of years…
anyways pumper for 08, hopefully i can get my fantasy teams cherry ripe:)
christoff
March 23, 2009 at 9:38 pm
i have Trent Hentschel and now after reading that i dunno if i should keep him but who do i replace him with around the same price??? i already have skipworth n ziebell starting!
Howie
March 23, 2009 at 10:10 pm
the Lollipop kids, How can you say that Chris Judd is well past his best, his groins are coming good and he is a spritely 25yrs of age. I know you will be eating your words soon enough
Jesse
March 23, 2009 at 10:10 pm
I agree with monty all correct.
Juddy is a good player yes but he is so overated in fantasy.
XztatiK
March 23, 2009 at 10:18 pm
Man fanfooty’s gettin way too crazy! sooo many posts and the season hasn’t started yet!
“there are only so many good taggers in a team…so if you are going to tag a backman, then who will tag your midfielders
in a team like Geelong you’ve got to tag Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Chapman, Enright etc
Richmond is the same in Deledio, Richo, Cousin, Jackson, Tuck, Bowden, McMahon etc”
Hahaha yep, Richmond is the same alright 😛
Adam
March 23, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Lockyer was the only Collingwood player (besides Chris Dawes who played 27 minutes) to complete the game without a clanger, a considerable accomplishment considering he led the team in disposals with 20.
Stats tell the story
http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/newsfeatures/news/newsarticle/tabid/5586/newsid/73321/default.aspx
Ash
March 23, 2009 at 11:50 pm
Why no love for foley??
the dud
March 24, 2009 at 12:32 am
jeez- cut montgomery some slack. As for Brendan, Game ON
Flash
March 24, 2009 at 12:42 am
Brad… Definetly Gibbs over Wells..
Evan… Iv been debating the same dilema.. I think drumond is too injury prone tho so adcock seems the safe option.
Iv also been tossing up between Judd and J.Selwood.. Any ideas? Judds pre season form hasnt been special but he is a proven performer so im scared to leave him out.. Im talking supercoach here too by the way.. The superior game!
the lollipop kids
March 24, 2009 at 8:58 am
“Howie Says: 10:10 pm, March 23rd, 2009
the Lollipop kids, How can you say that Chris Judd is well past his best, his groins are coming good and he is a spritely 25yrs of age. I know you will be eating your words soon enough”
i won’t eat my words because i think he is a good player just no wear near as good as the majority of people think, probably due to a high volume of media promotion and saturation.
The problem with judd is that his fundamentals aren’t very good, so he relies heavily upon his professionalism, hard running, speed and competitiveness which are all first class…
this style of play is heavily taxing on the body and will be very hard to sustain with age and injuries which in turn will expose his lack of fundamentals over time…
Hopefully Carlton is getting their off field moneys worth, because kennedy and Masten would have been incredibly handy next to gibbs, murphy and co for the next 10 years, especially with the draft concessions on their way in:)
hamish
March 24, 2009 at 10:12 am
robert shirley is the best tagger in the league, shuts down judd every time, whereas abblett can sometimes get away
Clint-84
March 24, 2009 at 10:56 am
agreed Hamish
Brad
March 24, 2009 at 11:36 am
Monty,
Can you give us a thread on picking your round 1 captain based on differentials compared to averages, good or bad, against their respective round 1 opponents?
I heard on SEN the other day that Cox and Hodge score 10% – 15% better against thier round 1 opponents, Brisbane and Geelong for example.
It would be interesting to see a list of the most dramatic differences of the top 10 or 20 players that people will be considering as having as their captain.
Howie
March 24, 2009 at 11:42 am
Lollipops, this is the second time someone has told me that that Judd wasnt worth giving up Josh Kennedy. What has Kennedy done, he has played 20 odd games in 3 seasons and kicked 18 goals. Wow. The jury is still out on Masten…
Youngy
March 24, 2009 at 1:27 pm
monty,
Just wanting to know where you’ve finished overall in DT the last few years. Im sure you’d have a few top 100s but I just wanna make sure im not taking advice from a guy who hasnt got a clue and will just wreck my team. Cheers.
Youngy
The Fone
March 24, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Ok, so i’ve only had 1 other post but i’ve done a sh*t load of reading.
Monty – an absolute legend, i don’t know how you find the time for all your research/info/responses. Eternally grateful and to all others with your helpful input.
What i would like to say is i’m getting a little tired of seeing whingers over and over again who have no advice to give, or even an opinion but want a thread on this and that posted. People asking about stuff that really doesn’t take much time to look into yourself.
Give the guy a break… get off your backside and do some of your own research rather than just relying on everyone else to spoon feed you the info.
It’s easy for me to say that considering i have been passively soaking up advice but, I just wanted to take an opportunity to say how grateful i am and how disappointing it is to see a lack of appreciation from some people.
A few last points:
– Brent Harvey as captain* (based on last few performances against Melbourne and the fact he is just a consistent gun)
– How is it that Hassleby is so underated?
– Dale Thomas is perfect option for $300-$#350k mark, will soak up the leather this year…
– Beams is amazing – yes i’m a collingwood supporter (let the banter begin)
&
– My backline is stacked to support the rolling zone, heavy ball use theory (despite some mention of tagging issues)
Bowden, Cornes, Goddard, Hodge, Raines, Collier, S. Hill.
Wish everyone all the best.
That’s me well and truly done.
Andy
March 24, 2009 at 2:34 pm
OK, so who would one choose out of Judd and Cousins?? If neither, who instead???
Brad
March 24, 2009 at 2:58 pm
@ The Fone,
First of all, i dont think anyone here under estimates or does not appreciate the outstanding effort Monty puts into running this site for all of us to use as a valuable reference tool, sure there is definitely some friendly banter around, but hey we are all footy fans, what would footy be without friendly banter?
In case you are referring to my request for the captaincy thread please consider that I add my opinion at every opportunity when questions are asked, if my input is rubbish well make of it what you will, its just my opinion.
Monty is running a business based on reveune from the advertising dollar. That advertising dollar grows as the readership grows.
As great as FanFooty is, I am assuming that it is not a community service run by volunteers so it is not outlandish to suggest adding a thread that the readership may think is interesting and will add something to the site.
Ever completed one of those “we value your feedback” slips in a hotel? Unless there is feedback, both positive and negative you can not make any improvements to your business and will therefore not attract any further clients.
Brad
March 24, 2009 at 3:09 pm
This from afl.com
It was beedin obvious anyway but hey its still nice to hear it from the horses mouth!
Knights:
“Skipworth will definitely play his first game for the Essendon Football Club. He’s been a magnificent story of resilience and persistence over the two or three years,†he said from Windy Hill on Tuesday.
dylan
March 24, 2009 at 3:31 pm
im more then happy to take the gamble on judd this year, it doesnt matter, he is a star and stars always do well
The Fone
March 24, 2009 at 3:36 pm
@ Brad
Totally agree with you there. I do understand this isn’t just a spare time interest of Monty’s… and I wasn’t having a “dig” at you. Rather it was a straw that broke the camel’s back. I would be sure to mention “names” if i felt that person required singling out… however it was more so that we could ultimately have a thread on everything.
– What players eat before games vs performance
– number of player rotations vs team possessions
– how traveling affects the avg points of players across the board
– how many shags they got vs handballs vs kicks in the following game
As examples, i merely suggest that it would be more worthy spending time on a post that requires some greater insight, inside knowledge or has an X-factor.
I just personally felt that asking who to make as captain (Brad), was a relatively clear thing. But like you said, that was also only MY opinion.
*Good note on Skipworth… just read that myself.
Brad
March 24, 2009 at 4:16 pm
@ The Fone
The captain question is a question i would ask for round 1 only and was asking for 10-20 players with very significant scoring differences against their round 1 opponents.
Harvey is a gun with a great average and at the peak of his powers however have you looked at how Harvey performs against Melbourne? Harvey’s average against Melbourne may be well down on his overall average so you might have a better captain option on your list perhaps? That is just speculation but is it worth checking?
By the way, the shags v handballs v kicks could be interesting, thinking that Keppler Bradley may have a serious case of blue balls based on the amount times he gets the pill.
The Fone
March 24, 2009 at 4:46 pm
lol – keppler bradley
Fairrrrly confident in Harvey vs Melbourne.
* Also mentioned on “Dream Team Talk 2009”
124,106,110 last 3 times played vs Melb.
Not spectacular but positively safe.
The Fone
March 24, 2009 at 4:48 pm
… i’d hate to think what clive waterhouse’s “pre game stats” were
m0nty
March 24, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Youngy: My best result was 67th in Super Coach in 2007, including a 2nd in the weekly. My DT has been cursed by injury every year, haven’t got inside the top 1000 yet. 🙁
The Fone and Brad: thanks for your support! On the captains post, we do that every week on the Coaches Box podcast so I don’t feel the need to steal the thunder from Calvin’s Captains over on DT Talk.
jimmy
March 24, 2009 at 8:53 pm
Judd over priced. If the reports of his fitness are true – He’s gunna be a gun this year.
See how the guy played towards the end at west coast? Even when he couldnt move fast, the way he uses the ball is very very clever. If he gets his pace back, just watch his SC and DT score sky rocket.
I’ve noticed monty, you seem to be hard on blokes that haven’t dont so well in the last year or so due to injury problems….
Some will repair, some won’t and some new ones will pop up.
Judd will be on fire this year…..
jimmy
March 24, 2009 at 8:55 pm
106 and 109 aint bad for someone nursing an injury like he was.
big red is back
March 24, 2009 at 10:01 pm
Let me guess Monty barracks for Hawthorn… one thing is for sure the hawks fans will never come to grips with the fact that hodge the amazing back pocket was taken ahead of Judd
ben
March 24, 2009 at 10:29 pm
sage advice monty. but give me lockyer over shaw any day – shaw burned me last year when teams learned to tag him and hey presto he would disappear. that said, i haven’t picked lockyer either.
dan
March 24, 2009 at 11:18 pm
how can you say lockyer is overrated? averaged 98 SC points in NAB cup which was collingwood’s best, has averaged high 80’s at worst for the last 5 yrs and not to mention he hasnt missed a game since 04 and cheap at a shy under 470k
Phillip Molly Malone
March 25, 2009 at 10:32 am
Haven’t read all the comments but actually think Roughead will kick better this year meaning I think he will kick as many goals even is he doesn’t have the same amount of chances! I also think you will see him down the wing as much or more (possibly cluster busting related) and so I think he is still a great buy. Will hold his score at absolute worst.
Marc
March 25, 2009 at 11:21 am
Judd IS overrated as a fantasy player, he barely marks the ball. His glory days were in the past when he had the ruckwork of Cox to set him up and hard men like Kerr and Cuz running with him, blocking opposition and giving him space. In a team like Carlton Juddy doesn’t get enough protection or good enough work from the ruckmen to be the same player he once was. He will always attract the number 1 tag and he hasn’t proven that he can still break the tag well enough to score highly.
hamish
March 25, 2009 at 11:31 am
judd will prove all of use wrong, the champion that he is has had 2 bad years riddled with injury and club change and now that he is settled, fit and fired up for a succesful year with the blues he is going to average 95 MARK MY WORDS
Andy
March 25, 2009 at 11:38 am
hes finally got a good preseason in, over his injuries HE WILL FIRE especially with the gun midfield as support, if he is going bad in the midfield, he can play a leading forward
hamish
March 25, 2009 at 12:08 pm
honestly who could doubt judd, he is capable of anything and if u dont know that u dont watch footy
ryan
March 25, 2009 at 7:50 pm
jud……clearly monty does not kno much