The fantasy hype machine is louder than ever this pre-season, but some don’t deserve spruiking.
Yes, if you hadn’t worked it out already, I’m going through last February/March’s blog posts and doing updated versions of the features I trialed back then. It’s not due to a lack of ideas – honest! – but something I want to get in the habit of doing every year to develop my predictive skills. In this case, the original version of this post wasn’t quite as successful as I would have hoped, with Brad Symes being a poor target, Marc Murphy just as bad but Chris Judd and Tadhg Kennelly redeeming me somewhat. Let’s hope I have a better strike rate this year.
Tarkyn Lockyer
One huge score in the NAB Cup against West Coast seems to have locked Lockyer into the hearts of many a fantasy coach, to the point where he’s in the top 20 in popularity among Dream Team starters on FanFooty’s books. It was just one game, people! Against the Eagles! I’m looking at figures that show Lockyer as more than three times as popular as Heath Shaw, which is ridiculous. Lockyer followed up that DT score of 149 in week 1 of the NAB with scores of 77, 52 and 66, so it’s not as if he’s getting towards Chad Cornes levels of scoring. Someone explain to me why you’re all Lockyering him in.
Trent Hentschel
Okay, he’s a risk that you know about, and significant numbers of you are taking. I don’t need to tell you all about his injury concerns and his lack of match hardness. But have we really seen the Crows midfield do anything this year? In the two competitive games Hentschel saw in the NAB – against Geelong and West Coast – “Trenty” couldn’t manage a score of 50 in DT, while you can discount the 74 against Box Hill and the 58 against Sydney’s skeleton squad. With the likelihood that Hentschel is going to play forward pocket while Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett gallop up the ground, can we rely on Hentschel to score anywhere near starting-worthy scores? I remain unconvinced. (I won’t discuss Scott Lucas, but consider all of the above going for him as well.)
Jarryd Roughead
I bet you thought I wouldn’t be potting a Hawks player in this article. Nyah! I see Matthew Lloyd has predicted that Roughie will kick a hundred goals this season. I like his attitude, but Matthew’s not the brightest spark in the AFL. I doubt whether Roughead will ever kick 75 goals again, under the new cluster-heavy game plans which will dominate the AFL for the next year or three. There was a window last year where the opposition hadn’t caught up to the rolling zone and Roughead benefited greatly from it, but in future you can expect a lot less inside 50s for the Hawks in general and – if it can be imagined, given how Lance Franklin-focused the Hawks were last season – less targets by the Hawthorn midfielders delivering to Roughead. Apart from that, there’s every chance that Roughead is going to be required to run up the ground a lot more to help out the undermanned defence, as he did in the grand final. I foresee less +12s in Roughies future, thus I think his popularity in 2009 for fantasy is inflated.
Chris Judd
Yes, Chris Judd again. He is still over-rated for fantasy. His groin problems are chronic, they’re never going to go away. He will never be the player he once was, scooting away from packs that have been knocked over for him by the Eagles’ muscle men. The Blues play a different style, more selfish and less accountable, which fails to include setting up their entire clearance game around the Magenius. He should not be bought at all in Dream Team, and he is a risk few should be taking in Super Coach. Yet many of you keep buying him year after year, hoping the old Juddy will somehow return. Wake up and smell 2009!
I’m sure you will want to argue over your favourites, especially you Juddites out there. Juddite rhymes with Luddite!
todd
March 22, 2009 at 11:33 pm
monty, juddy is the best midfielder ive ever seen. dream team i would lock him in but supercoach he is going to be a star in 2009.
judd>Hodge always will be.
nicholas
March 22, 2009 at 11:49 pm
good work,
m0nty, can u make a thread about the rookies that r likely to play, and the chance of them pplaying???
cheers
Bob
March 22, 2009 at 11:50 pm
True Judd will always be better than Hodge, but I have to agree Judd is a poor fantasy player at the blues and i cant see this changing!
Peospector_1
March 22, 2009 at 11:57 pm
m0nty you are a leg end. I can’t believe the work you do here. Thanks for all of it.
I can’t see who but Lucas is cheap enough for my spare forward slot in Dreamteam though – were you being positive, or is he just an old far*?
Prospector_1
March 23, 2009 at 12:02 am
PS…
have Ziebell, Higgins, Skipworth already…
SWB
March 23, 2009 at 12:04 am
Not a fan of judd for DT but really Monty Judd is 2nd only to ablett and even then a 100% judd is pushing that. I think we may see him back to his best this year (just without the blocking WCE mids as you said)
Jdog
March 23, 2009 at 12:05 am
My theory on premium backs this year. (feel free to challenge my theory)
with the tactic of the rolling zone going to be the prominant feature of many sides this year, good backmen are a must.
however
one of the ways that sides tried to combat this last year were to tag the most prominent ball winner and user in the opposition team. (eg, heater, mcleod, hodge)
we saw heater struggle to deal with the tag and his fantasy scores dropped dramatically.
if this tagging backmen trend continues, will the best ball winner have lower scores?
if this is the case, look at buying the second best ball winner from a team(as there numbers could increase.
examples
richmond(joel bowden cops the tag, j.mcmahon doesnt)
stk(goddard cops tag, s.fisher doesnt)
haw(hodge cops tag, birchell doesnt)
Any thoughts monty?
Juice box
March 23, 2009 at 12:05 am
Whenever I read someone talking up the Juddsta for DT I pretty much skip over the whole post, curse under my breath and go wash my eyes out, with turpentine. I wish I had three hands so I could give him three thumbs down.
Craig
March 23, 2009 at 12:09 am
If Judd marked the ball once in a while his dream team scores would be ridiculous. But he marks maybe once or twice an entire game and hence gets ~90 for ridiculous games where he dominates as much as Ablett getting 130s.
Reesi
March 23, 2009 at 12:09 am
hmmm, i have 3 of these 4 monty, i really hope u dont know wot ur talking about. i dont see hentschel as being a risk and saying that a guy priced at 122 is overrated he must be a pretty terrible player (his price will go up, hes a cash cow and gets traded early if he doesnt average any more than 65 or 70.
from memory lockyer had limited tog in a few those nab games, hes got big scores and some consistency if u look at his scores from the last few seasons.
but roughead is def a bit of a risky call. he gets traded pretty quickly if he cant some decent scores
m0nty
March 23, 2009 at 12:14 am
Jdog, I have been thinking about blogging about tactical trends for 2009, with the cluster one of the main subjects of discussion. Those are good points you make, I’ll be sure to reference them if I do end up writing that piece.
Jdog
March 23, 2009 at 12:16 am
reesi: you obviously havent been playing DT for long.
you cant afford to waste trades on players who might? do good.
look for players who will get a game each week and arent an injury risk
hentschel is just that. pay a litle bit more money and get someone decent(i suggest, higgins or skipworth).
they will both also have big increases in value.
Athomas
March 23, 2009 at 12:26 am
‘His groin problems are chronic, they’re never going to go away. He will never be the player he once was, ‘
WTF m0nty. Dissapointed.
m0nty
March 23, 2009 at 12:36 am
What are you disappointed about, Athomas? That he won’t recover, or that I don’t have faith in the messiah?
snagadelic
March 23, 2009 at 12:48 am
wishful thinking monty about judd, carlton just need a proper ruckman that is where the problem is. he can’t get his hands on the footy without taggers hanging off him.
Reesi
March 23, 2009 at 12:50 am
OK fair enuf Jdog. i know u wont believe me but ive finished in the top 200 in DT in the last 2 seasons. but yeah ive never done that well with my trades. i dont look 2 get decent scores and play it safe with blokes who’ll get 40 4 u every week, i try 2 win and u need 2 take risks to win. hentschel doesnt have a bad history of injury b4 his knee reco anyway, although it was a bad one and he’d be doing well if he fully recovered. ive got higgins and skipworth already anyway, and i didnt ask for your advice
SWB
March 23, 2009 at 12:54 am
I’m with Athomas Monty, only because I so want the messiah to return. Is there anyhting better than watching juddy wrench the ball out of a players hands and then burst from a pack with players falling over in his wake?
On a more serious not where is Rich in this list? the next palmer my ass
andy
March 23, 2009 at 3:36 am
ok so if roughead is a no-goer who else is worthy at that price?
wal
March 23, 2009 at 3:45 am
over-rated = skipworth
it’s laughable how many people have locked this bloke in.
decent pre-season, but you’d expect that from a guy with afl experience. problem is he’s already shown he’s not up to the real stuff.
people expecting him to dominate will be sorely dissapointed imo. i think he’ll be lucky to hold down a spot long enough to even get decent cash
Hank
March 23, 2009 at 7:08 am
Ok,yes there are better players than judd for dream team.. But to say he will never be the player he was is a pretty ridiculous comment.. He is probably the most talented mid fielder in the comp. My money is on Judd to finish top 3 in the brownlow.. Youl see
Keza41
March 23, 2009 at 8:13 am
I think that roughy will have an alright season.
It’s been said that Franklin will be playing more of a Richo type role and will be up the ground for a lot of the time.
Hopefully this gives roughead some more space and Hawthorn won’t always just look for franklin as a target.
korza
March 23, 2009 at 8:44 am
An individual player whom you fork out your hard earned cash to watch them play ,imo is a superstar. Eg Judd,Kerr,and to a lesser degree Wells.However in D/T they are all duds.That’s right Judd the Dud.
Charlie
March 23, 2009 at 8:51 am
Great stuff Monty.
Question: Are there any DT players who have not been ‘earmarked’ for either:
* The ‘quarterback’ role (backman)
* More time up the ground in a Richo role (forwards)
* More time in the midfield (the rest)
??? I think there is a lot of wishful thinking going on.
Monty – the Roughhead observation is interesting. Not sure I agree with you predictions on the fwd role, but concede he may end up back a little more if the injury run continues. The are arguably no standout picks in the $300 – $390 zone among the fwds, which makes life interesting!
Ant
March 23, 2009 at 9:07 am
Judd is garbage in DT because DT’s scoring system is garbage. Judd in SC wont reach his West Coast levels but will still improve on last season and will be one of the premier midfielders.
Chad
March 23, 2009 at 9:09 am
I have a couple. Hentschel and Lucas. Lucas is just such a proven scorer and durable. only need him to play 6-7 rounds. Hentschel i think can average 60. Which is great for his priace (and again only need him for 6-7 rounds). Would be great to downgrade Lucas or Hentschel after they have gone up 1
I’m not sure on why lockyer is popular either monty. he has played 22 the last 4 years, and maybe people are reacting to the bain pain of last year? I think it is also because he is now a back, and his break out DT year (2007) he was classed as a back too. His scores there were because of the role in the side though.
Raf
March 23, 2009 at 9:25 am
Roughhead is being overrated because people forget his NAB cup hauls were without Franklin in the side. Easy.
Jake
March 23, 2009 at 9:27 am
If you pay $377 for a guy who averages 90 (which I think he will this year) for the year is that not good enough?? Gee you guys are picky if you think thats poor output.
Bluey
March 23, 2009 at 9:44 am
Luckily the game is played on grass and not a computer you bunch of armchair critic knowall nerds.Watch the game, enjoy it and quit over anylising it.
Do what you do every week C.Judd and give it your all.
korza
March 23, 2009 at 9:49 am
To Jake,K.Simpson will average more than dud i mean Judd.And he is 22k less.
Eddie
March 23, 2009 at 10:00 am
This is why Dreamteam is such a poor cousin to Supercoach. Our footy brains tell us that Judd is a star, no question. Yet with DT we need to rethink this & say he is an average player. It rewards peoples stat reading abilities over footy knowledge abilities. With SC he is ranked more approporiately & when up & running there is none better in SC including Ablett.
Nick
March 23, 2009 at 10:08 am
I would say the opposite to those baggin out DT, its easy to know who are the best players in the comp, just pick based on Mikes top 50..
DT you need to know who are the cheapies, the players who will get touches no matter what, players who tackle ect..
I agree Monty, Judd is a DT spud and people should just listen to ya mate.
I agree with you that he’ll never return to his best, so suck it up Athomas.
Jake
March 23, 2009 at 10:09 am
I repectfully disagree Korza.
Chad
March 23, 2009 at 10:25 am
The counter to that Eddie, is Bartel is a gun scorer and Bartel ahs actually won a brownlow. More than you can say for ablett 🙂
azza
March 23, 2009 at 10:28 am
hahahaha geez fellas.. take it easy! its a bit of fun! if there was a perfect team we would all have it and wouldnt that be boring! how about everyone just pick ya own team and enjoying the DT experience.
personally i dont see why everyones fighting for their man/player on here. why would you want your competition to have the same team as you? theres no need to get yaself worked up if someone doesnt like the same player. if yas did want to go on about someone… why wouldnt ya promote the bad choices to someone else.
(this doesnt apply to the people out there that really are just trying to help people struggling to select players)
happy dting! footy’s back
Casha
March 23, 2009 at 10:35 am
Monty
Known you for a while and i cannot beleive what you have just posted in your blog about Judd.
His groin problems will never go away?
For someone who is smashing time trials down there at carlton id say his groin is fine.
Should never be Bought for DT ? intersting that he has avg 100 before he got injured and this will be his first injury free start in years95 in DT Lock.
Agree he might of lost a bit of a yard but his ability to stand through tackles and feed out contested balls Makes him a SC god.
its not like he is 29 to 32 years old Monty he is still very young and dynamite around the ground you really could not have got that little review on Judd more wrong IMO.
In SC it would be more a risk not starting him.
cheers Casha
Clint-84
March 23, 2009 at 10:44 am
Hentschel will be fine. He never had injury problems before his knee got wrecked in an extremely unlucky incident. He did have a few soft tissue injuries last year but that’s because his body was still getting used to the training and playing again after such a long break. He’s had a solid preseason and looks to be getting more and more confident every game. I think his first few games might be a bit scratchy but once he gets used to AFL footy again he will return to his pre injury form.
Thanks for all the good work Monty!
mitchell beacs
March 23, 2009 at 10:49 am
MOnty u did not say that Judd is over rated
U R over rated u fagelah im gonna sue your ass
Charlie
March 23, 2009 at 11:20 am
@ Casha – my understanding of most groin problems is they restrict lateral movement. So even with a groin problem, he’ll still be smashing the time trials and doing ok running out of packs (ie. these facts don’t prove his groin is fine). But if the groin is not fine, he won’t have quite as much freedom with sideways movements / evasive abilities.
Who knows, but Judd, like Foley, will never be an uber-elite DTer, mainly because of the lack of marking and to a lesser degree, the hard tag. It’s not a criticism of Judd as a footballer, it’s just a DT fact. I think Monty’s point is well-made.
m0nty
March 23, 2009 at 11:24 am
Charlie said it better than I could.
Jed
March 23, 2009 at 11:25 am
Casha, I’m with you on the Juddernaut, and Monty take three deep breaths, turn off the computer and don’t switch it on until the footy starts. Otherwise you will implode with nervous anticipation, and pick rookies like Hansen and Pfeiffer in the 60mins of madness on Thursday
Daveo
March 23, 2009 at 11:41 am
I had Lockyer in before a ball was kicked.
Avg 101 in 07 and 81 in 08, and does that at a fairly low standard deviation. Has played four years of 22 in a row. I also picked him as I believe his stats will increase due to the zonal style of play that is becoming popular.
I understand your point m0nty if your critique is purely based on people picking him because of NAB cup form, but I think he will be a good consistent player.
Casha
March 23, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Charlie Dont put judd in the same sentance as Foley seriously.
your understanding of most groin problems is they restrict lateral movement Hey!
And your saying judd can still explode out of a pack in a straight line(his trade mark) but can;t move sideways cause of his groin? and this will stop his scoring in DT and SC based on this.
Judd will be tagged this year no dought bUT he is as FIT as he has ever been and the Blocking setups at training will see him run free on many occasions.
His Mark count will be up as well with the style of game carlton are pushing to make.
JUDD SC AVG 122.00
JUDD DT AVG 98 TO 101
lOCKIT IN
GuruGus
March 23, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Lets face it, Judd seduced us all with his skills and won a brownlow scoring 3 votes with 20 possesion games, great for fans who had a bet on him but unfortunately not good for fantasy. now throw on top a dodgy hamstring you have a massive risk and the season hasnt started. he is over paid, over priced and has nothing to play for so expect an average of 75-80.
look at carltons midfield:
Simpson,Gibbs,Grigg,Murphy,Scotland,Stevens,Hadley …. too much depth in the side to consistantly score over 100 and Judd will forever take a tag … good luck
Charlie
March 23, 2009 at 12:29 pm
@ Casha. No, you’ve misconstrued some arguments there.
I said being able to fly in TTs doesn’t prove his groin is fine – it’s not the type of test that would stress ‘most’ groin problems. I made no DT conclusions based on his groin, (hence the paragraphing).
On a DT basis, Foley and Judd share the situation of being far better footballers than DTers – as do many players. That observation makes no attempt to compare them AS footballers.
Good luck this year.
kouta
March 23, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Thanks Monty. I was worried that my team would have no point of difference from others. I think I may have a good one now JUDDY 4EVA
Rorschach
March 23, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Would Stokes be a good replacement for Roughy if i had the cash?
Didn’t catch many of geelongs games so am clueless :/
hairy
March 23, 2009 at 12:41 pm
well done azza you are the only person with any brains on here. none of these guys should be bagging anyone because if they are playing afl then they are awsome footballers already.
andy
March 23, 2009 at 12:49 pm
judds 2006 dt average – 100 (incl 177 against brisbane) judd 2007 average up to round 14 – 99.58
Kennyrocks
March 23, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Monty, his nickname is “Rowdy”. He’ll probably average around 60 ppg and is guaranteed a game, whereas Yarran at a similar (more expensive) price is not and will most likely at best average the same. Cheaper options are a gamble as to whether they play and again, will not outscore 60.
I don’t have him in my team, but I haven’t seen that much talk about Rowdy in dream teams compared to some. “Overhyped” is a stretch. Please get over this thing you have with Adelaide (Same goes for you Shehan, Walls et al)
wooju
March 23, 2009 at 1:38 pm
That Judd 2007 (up till R14) is amazing considering he was injured during R10. Wonder what his DT average was for the first 9 games anyone???