Every fantasy coach wants to find that obscure kid who is being hidden on an AFL list that almost nobody is talking about, who then proceeds to play 10-22 games out of nowhere. Think Josh Hill and Austin Wonaeamirri from last year. Let’s see if we can throw up a name from each club who could be this year’s “smokie”. (I’ll break this post into two since it will be a long one.)
Adelaide
I have been talking up the positional battle between Aaron Kite and Greg Gallman on this blog for a while now, though it’s not being covered by any other media outlet I know so technically I guess either of them could be classified as smokies if they come good. Jared Petrenko could very well come over the top like Kiwi in 1983, as I said recently. However, if we’re looking for a real smokie, Andy Otten is a name I don’t think I’ve mentioned on this blog before, mainly because Crow fans have taken to calling him Andy Forgotten. As a tall inside midfielder, he’s a rare commodity in AFL lists – there are only ten of them currently, including Joel Corey, Adam Goodes, Scott Pendlebury, Cameron Bruce and Jobe Watson. Such players tend to do well in DT due to their height advantage in marking contests over smaller midfielders. Watson is the closest style to that of Otten, with a possession ratio that definitely favours handballs over kicks and a kicking efficiency that lets him down. No doubt you’ll get to see him in the NAB, but from looking at the Fanplanner it seems that very few of you trust Neil Craig to give any of his kids decent time on ground (TOG), so even if he burns it up I still expect Otten to be forgotten by the vast majority of coaches, leaving him as a smokie.
Brisbane Lions
Everyone knows about Daniel Rich, of course, but let me tell you about Tom Collier. Yes, he’s a tall key defender, a position that traditionally is not a lucrative one for fantasy. However, Collier has shown that he can run through the midfield while playing for Tasmania in junior ranks, so he’s got some sort of a tank. I’ve said before many times that I don’t rate the Lions backline, and with new coach Michael Voss in charge, I’m tipping that all positions are open. While I reckon Joel Patfull and Daniel Merrett are pretty safe as #1 and #2 tall backs, I think the third spot is up for grabs, and Collier is one of a number of younguns gunning for the spot which has previously been taken by Jason Roe. Collier will have to battle it out with Scott Clouston and Pat Garner, but I’m confident he will show a bit in the NAB and have as good a chance as any to play a decent amount of games. With the paucity of quality in the back rookies this year, he could end up being a vital fantasy player, especially in Super Coach.
Carlton
I see the name of Mitch Robinson bobbing up every now and then on the boards among watch lists of draftees that fantasy coaches are keeping religiously. He always seems to be down the list, somehow, suggesting that he’s probably going to be spurned when it comes to actually buying your team, in favour of more high profile rookie midfielders like Steele Sidebottom and Patrick Dangerfield. I would remind you that Robinson topped the DT averages at the Under 18 championships last year, playing for Tasmania who got beaten most weeks. Yes, it’s going to be very difficult to fit Robinson into the stellar Carlton midfield. If by some chance he gets named for round 1, he’s going to be every coach’s new best little buddy. If not, he’ll remain a smokie.
Collingwood
Again, the hype mostly surrounds Sidebottom down at the Lexus Centre, but I keep seeing the name of Dayne Beams in training reports, mostly connected to nice things being said about his clearance work in drills and scratch matches. Clearances are something Collingwood is going to need in the post-Scott Burns era, so I suspect we’ll see a fair bit of Beams this year. Probably more of a Super Coach prospect than Dream Team, given that his numbers will probably be handball-heavy but be full of contested possession.
Essendon
Very few rocks were not overturned last year in the search for fit blokes wearing red and black on the Essendon list, so we have pretty much seen every Bomber kid in the seniors. Of this year’s draftees, I suppose only David Zaharakis could be classified as a true smokie prospect, though I’m not hugely excited over him. Could Tayte Pears be considered a smokie? If so, I’d nominate him as the hype around Michael Hurley will disguise Pears’ development.
Fremantle
This is another highly scrutinised list for fantasy purposes, where every kid has been pored over for cheap value. I see a lot of Hayden Ballantyne in the Fanplanner, obviously, but not much of Michael Walters. I’m still a little bullish on Freo opting to go with both draftees in their forward line, if only because I saw how Hawthorn played both Cyril Rioli and Cameron Stokes in 2008. Walters did rank at #4 for DT points at the under 18 championships, so he is a proven scorer and, like Stokes, can be pushed up the ground a bit more.
Geelong
Word out of the Cats fan boards is that Simon Hogan is a chance to debut early in the season, depending on NAB Cup form. Classified as a small forward by Champion last season, Hogan ran through the midfield a lot for the Geelong VFL side, and came sixth in their club best & fairest. Hogan’s main issue is size, as he was listed at 72kg to go with his 182cm frame, suggesting he would want to have spent a fair bit of time in the gym sucking protein shakes over summer in order to impress the Cats selection committee that he can compete in big games with big bodies. Willingness to go in hard may be something that the Cats hierarchy would be harsh on this year, given the experience they had in 2008 with the contest-shy Travis Varcoe. We’ll get to see how bulky Hogan is in the NAB, no doubt.
Hawthorn
We all know the spots that are up for grabs in the Hawks team for round 1, with half a dozen or more to miss from the grand final side. Everyone also knows about Travis Tuck, Josh P. Kennedy and Ben McGlynn, and everyone has heard of Beau Muston and Beau Dowler even if we have barely seen them play. But what of Brendan Whitecross? Hardcore talent spotters know about this bloke due to his dominating role at the under 16 championships in 2006. He has dropped off in the years since those heady heights, but remains a solid prospect. “Swiss” has a lot of names in front of him and has zero hype at this stage, so he’s a true smokie.
Check out the second part of this post.
Chad
January 15, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Petrenko was my smokie. Great post monty can wait for the next selection. Im starting to wonder if the back rookies wont be “that bad”. Suban, Strauss, Petrenko. Would think 1 of those 3 would get a game each week. Maybe i only need 6 back premiums instead of 7, and use the cash in the forward line.
Pingback: FanFooty blog » Blog Archive » 2009 fantasy smokies club by club (2 of 2)
Phillip Molly Malone
January 15, 2009 at 3:31 pm
I think Dowler could be a really interesting one. Word is that he is having his best preseason yet, he played well towards the end of the year and is starting to show some mobility that might see him play in the “Richo Role” of tall winger. Will have my eye on him in the NAB Cup!
dids
January 15, 2009 at 5:16 pm
Brent Macaffer
dylan
January 15, 2009 at 5:45 pm
ottens could be a interesting 1 for the crows because on the board i saw a few ideas for him to maybe play on the wing like what richo does, weather that happens or not is another thing. last year in the sanfl he was getting lots of touches always in the 20’s or 30’s so he seems to be able to find the ball alright.
Brendan
January 15, 2009 at 6:02 pm
*Otten
*whether
dylan
January 15, 2009 at 7:02 pm
well what a good post that was brendan btw u missed
*Last
im sure if u look hard enough u will find plenty more mistakes =)
drewriffic
January 15, 2009 at 7:03 pm
re: simon hogan. ssshhhhhh. none of my mates have even heard of him. lets just keep that to ourselves.
in all seriousness, will he really get a guernsey in a cats side with so many good players? i wouldnt say hes a bench starter, but someone you trade a burnt out rookie (i.e. 2008 Josh Hill) for mid season if he does look like getting three or more games..
Simon
January 15, 2009 at 8:06 pm
There’s a link on the Geelong Advertiser about Hogan bulking up substantially. I think it also said that he has had so many injuries to date because he has had trouble carrying the extra weight. I think he could be Gamble like in the pre-season, but keeping yourself in the Cats team can be awfully hard when there is so much depth of talent.
broady
January 15, 2009 at 9:27 pm
Taylor Walker – crows. can trent ‘potential’ hentschel be considered a smokie?
Lakey91
January 15, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Yeh agree broady on walker – all reports a very very promising.
dids
January 15, 2009 at 10:27 pm
I think nearly everyone would have Walker though.
Lakey91
January 15, 2009 at 11:34 pm
doesnt mean he cant be good dids. Lots of people had rioli…not sold on anyone yet though…
dab
January 15, 2009 at 11:45 pm
how bout hayden kiel of the rookie list after round 12?
XztatiK
January 16, 2009 at 12:59 am
Agree on everything except a few comments re Andy Otten.
Otto is much more of a Cam Bruce type than Watson. He plays far more outside than Jobe. And his kick-to-handball ratio is certainly nothing to worry about – it was 1:0.65 last year in the SANFL (13.8 kicks, 8.9 handballs over 16 games) and only once did he have more HB’s than kicks.
m0nty you should really take less notice of the people on the Adelaide board 😛
dids
January 16, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Yes Lakey91, but he’s not really a smokie if everyone has him.
dids
January 16, 2009 at 11:05 pm
Beams was BOG in our intra club match today getting 17 possies in 40 mins of footy, he’ll be in my team if he’s named round 1.
drewriffic
January 16, 2009 at 11:22 pm
Hayden Skipworth.
I don’t personally have him, so I’m free to speculate without giving away smoky secrets (and i have possibly misplaced faith in Coughlan as my last mid).
But he’s 26ish which is a prime age, an experiencedish midfielder in a young/injury prone team and is at a bargain basement price of 91 900. The upside may be too good to resist if he’s named.
Really like Dayne Beams though- he looks likely.
josh 17
January 19, 2009 at 12:57 pm
drewriffic, i completely agree with you. Hamish Skipworth was extremely unlucky to be cut from the crows. i feel he was a victim of adelaide’s choke in the prelim final against west coast in 06, they felt they needed to get some fresh faces into the club (although he won the sanfl grand final best on ground medal that year). But i believe skipworth is very talented, i had him in dream team in 2005 and he averaged around 70, which was very good for my lowest priced forward. i think he’ll get a gig round 1 and will take over some of the slack that was left by peverill and j.johnson etc. nab cup will be interesting to see how he goes, but at this stage i’d sau keep him in your plans
Greg
January 22, 2009 at 1:14 pm
You’re right Simon- i’ve read that hogan is now at 80kgs… The loss of prismall to essendon means there is an extra spot for him too, although prismall only really got games last year to replace injuries so i think hogan will still need someone to go down