The effectiveness of F/R in 2015 (MUST READ)

felsty · January 01, 2015, 12:54:08 PM

So I thought I would undertake a little round-by-round check of whether R/F are suitable in 2015 and if so which players are the best to utilise..

ROOKIES

Cox - 4 Sunday games, 9 Friday games (including two Thursday games)
Read - 7 Sunday games (including Easter Monday), 5 Friday games (including last two rounds)
McLaren - 3 Sunday games, 5 Friday games
O'Brien - 6 Sunday games, 3 Friday games

So Read or O'Brien are probably your best bets in choosing a non playing R/F

PREMIUMS

Ryder - 7 Sunday games, 5 Friday games (including 2 Thursday games)
Lycett - 9 Sunday games (including last 3), 3 Friday games
Clarke - 12 Sunday game, 3 Friday games (including Thursday game)
Hale - 5 Sunday games (including Monday game), 6 Friday games (including Thursday game)
Bellchambers - 6 Sunday games, 3 Friday games

So Clarke, Lycett, Ryder and Bellchambers are your best bet, in that order

Does this put greater emphasis on a Clarke or Lycett over Belly, despite them not being their teams number one ruck?

The Bellchambers/Read combo will be used quite heavily so just looking at what days you will have to lock them in over the season.. [BYES OR ROUND 23 NOT INCLUDED]

FRI: 5
SAT: 9
SN: 3
SUN: 2

14/19 Games have to be locked in before Saturday night games.

Is it worth starting Belly over a keeper just to have ruck back-up for late withdrawls when you'll have to lock him in nearly always before a Saturday night game?

Is it worth it just to have a non-playing rookie for VC purposes?

Understandably, if a ruckmen goes down it allows flexibility being able to place them on the bench til they recover, but I'm asking these questions because I don't like the idea of starting Belly if it isn't viable.

Is it worth backing a set and forget ruck brigade and trade them out if they become injured?

Thoughts?

JBs-Hawks · January 01, 2015, 12:57:13 PM

Instead of the analaysis on the days their locked, What is the analysis on how often they are locked before Kreuz/Leuy play?

Great analysis though mate top work!!

Money Shot · January 01, 2015, 01:09:05 PM

Very good points here but I would think that if Kreuzer and Leuy were to miss games it wouldn't be late outs and would more likely be confirmed when the teams are released so that is when Belly would become useful.

felsty · January 01, 2015, 01:57:50 PM

Quote from: JBs-Hawks on January 01, 2015, 12:57:13 PM
Instead of the analaysis on the days their locked, What is the analysis on how often they are locked before Kreuz/Leuy play?

Great analysis though mate top work!!

1. After Kruze
2. After Kruze
3. Before both
4. After Kruze
5. After Kruze
6. Before both
7. Before both
8. Before both
9. After Kruze
10. After Kruze
14. After Kruze
15. After Kruze
16. Before both
17. After Kruze
18. Before both
19. After both
20. Before both
21. Before both
22. Before both

9 times before both play
9 times after Kruze plays (ridiculous how many Friday games Blues have!)
1 time after both play

Probably not the best strike rate..

If you went set and forget, do you think its a similar issue or do you back yourself in with the premos you choose?

I'm looking at going Maric and NicNat atm, and wondering whether a F/R is worth it

Money Shot · January 01, 2015, 02:42:17 PM

I think if you have two premium rucks you don't need Belly as you can always do I side ways trade for another ruck but with one of Kreuzer and Leuy getting injured you wouldn't really have anyone to choose from.

RaisyDaisy · January 01, 2015, 06:29:37 PM

There are clearly two options this year

Go with 2 guns from the get go - set and forget, or get 1 gun and one of Kreuz or Leuey, but then put Belly in your forward line

You could also start 2 guns plus have Belly in your forward line but I think that might be too cautious and not the best use of money

The reason I currently have NicNat and Leuey with Belly in the forward line is because I think Belly is just too cheap to not get. He should go up to 450kish quite easily and provide cover whilst also being a chance to go 80+ most weeks, and that's why I've got him so far

Goldy and NicNat is tempting, but then having Belly too means I'm spending quite a lot. Not a bad idea, but think I'd rather grab Belly and it gives me to time to assess who the best ruck option will be to upgrade Leuey too later in the season

The_Captain · January 01, 2015, 07:11:05 PM

Can someone please explain why everyone is on belly? He won't even be number 1 ruck will he? giles has him covered and I reckon he is a better option. Can't see belly scoring well at all.

Ringo · January 02, 2015, 02:33:04 PM

At the moment Captain have belly but looking at stats etc am possibly trying to get Lycett in instead of Bellchambers, Lycett I think will average 90+ which has got me thinking. just did some research on Lycett over the last couple of days and he is DPP as well. Just wondering whether worth the extra $100k.

RaisyDaisy · January 02, 2015, 04:12:43 PM

Quote from: The_Captain on January 01, 2015, 07:11:05 PM
Can someone please explain why everyone is on belly? He won't even be number 1 ruck will he? giles has him covered and I reckon he is a better option. Can't see belly scoring well at all.

Giles only got 9 games last year with Mumford in the team, so I don't so why he is all of a sudden going to walk into Essendon and take the Number 1 spot

Belly will get first crack for sure, and the reason he is so popular is because he is so cheap and under-priced

The_Captain · January 02, 2015, 07:25:18 PM

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on January 02, 2015, 04:12:43 PM
Quote from: The_Captain on January 01, 2015, 07:11:05 PM
Can someone please explain why everyone is on belly? He won't even be number 1 ruck will he? giles has him covered and I reckon he is a better option. Can't see belly scoring well at all.

Giles only got 9 games last year with Mumford in the team, so I don't so why he is all of a sudden going to walk into Essendon and take the Number 1 spot

Belly will get first crack for sure, and the reason he is so popular is because he is so cheap and under-priced

Does any one actually realize that belly is a spud but? Giles rucked and did it well before Mumford got there... The arrival of Mumford would demote most teams number 1 ruckman to number 2. Wouldn't write of Giles.

RaisyDaisy · January 02, 2015, 07:46:11 PM

Belly had 2 seasons averaging mid 80's with Ryder in the side. He is priced at a mid 50's average so he is popular because he provides cheap ruck cover and will make money to be upgraded easier prior to his bye

The_Captain · January 02, 2015, 09:50:47 PM

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on January 02, 2015, 07:46:11 PM
Belly had 2 seasons averaging mid 80's with Ryder in the side. He is priced at a mid 50's average so he is popular because he provides cheap ruck cover and will make money to be upgraded easier prior to his bye

Yeahh... Maybe. The link from fwd to ruck will help! Would take 80 ave priced at 50 then I spose. He just needs to get the game before giles!

Spanner221 · January 03, 2015, 01:41:28 AM

Quote from: Ringo on January 02, 2015, 02:33:04 PM
At the moment Captain have belly but looking at stats etc am possibly trying to get Lycett in instead of Bellchambers, Lycett I think will average 90+ which has got me thinking. just did some research on Lycett over the last couple of days and he is DPP as well. Just wondering whether worth the extra $100k.

been looking at him too. It gets more interesting when you look at only the games where WC wasn't playing 3 ruckman. The question is if a 90+ average is good enough for F6? This year I think we are too spoilt for choice to go with him unfortunately.

felsty · January 03, 2015, 09:56:20 AM

Quote from: Spanner221 on January 03, 2015, 01:41:28 AM
Quote from: Ringo on January 02, 2015, 02:33:04 PM
At the moment Captain have belly but looking at stats etc am possibly trying to get Lycett in instead of Bellchambers, Lycett I think will average 90+ which has got me thinking. just did some research on Lycett over the last couple of days and he is DPP as well. Just wondering whether worth the extra $100k.

been looking at him too. It gets more interesting when you look at only the games where WC wasn't playing 3 ruckman. The question is if a 90+ average is good enough for F6? This year I think we are too spoilt for choice to go with him unfortunately.

So much this.. is it worth having an F6 for back up ruck scoring 90s when you could have someone with an average above 100? not entirely impossibly for F6 this year with Goddard, Gray, Swan, Franklin, Deledio, Martin, Bennell, Harvey, Zorko? Bartel? Roughead? and thats even if Lycett or Bellchambers actually make it to an above 90 average..

ben_020285 · January 04, 2015, 08:37:18 PM

A thing to remember with the RUC/FWD link is that it won't just be used for late outs.

Like in other positions on the field, if one of our players has a minor injury and is out 1 or 2 weeks, most of us would be inclined to keep this player and play a rookie for the 1 or 2 weeks they are out. This can also happen with our rucks. Say Leuey does a minor hammy, we will know when teams are named on Thursday whether he is playing and we can easily move Belly on for him regardless of when the Bombers play.

So basically, a late out for one of our ruckman in a round where Belly has already played will result in a donut but any other time it should be fine.