To Ablett or Not to Ablett

[Grazz]

I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.

Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.

Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)

[GM]

I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.

Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.

Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)

So , no hesitation G?

[WizzFizz]

Gaz's 3 round avg to teams before byes:

Mel 126.7
Stk 150.7
Gee 133
Gws 156.3
Bris 148
Adl 122.3
Wce 97.7
Pies 131.3
Hawks 148
Swans 139.7
Freo 147.7

[GM]

Gaz's 3 round avg to teams before byes:

Mel 126.7
Stk 150.7
Gee 133
Gws 156.3
Bris 148
Adl 122.3
Wce 97.7
Pies 131.3
Hawks 148
Swans 139.7
Freo 147.7

Self explanatory ;)

[Grazz]

I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.

Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.

Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)

So , no hesitation G?

Not really mate, at the minute he's locked unless something gets reported that seriously scares me off.

[T Dog]

I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.

Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.

Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)

So , no hesitation G?

Not really mate, at the minute he's locked unless something gets reported that seriously scares me off.

Had an injury late last season by all accounts...that scares me  :-\

[quinny88]

The annual pre season Ablett discussion.

-People question him
-Most start him anyway
-A few don't
-Those few get egg on their face.

[Grazz]

I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.

Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.

Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)

So , no hesitation G?

Not really mate, at the minute he's locked unless something gets reported that seriously scares me off.

Had an injury late last season by all accounts...that scares me  :-\

Close attention to all reports and NAB hopefully alleviates any of the concerns we have mate.

[T Dog]

I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.

Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.

Goodluck finding someone a 100k cheaper that will get close. ;)

So , no hesitation G?

Not really mate, at the minute he's locked unless something gets reported that seriously scares me off.

Had an injury late last season by all accounts...that scares me  :-\

Close attention to all reports and NAB hopefully alleviates any of the concerns we have mate.

That will do it.....tho will probably ignore it all and start him as usual  ::)

[Football Factory]

If he's fit for round 1 ill be starting captain Ablett.

[GCSkiwi]

I thought a lot this year about whether I would start Ablett after he nearly pushed the 700k bracket. I ended up starting him and glad I did.  In 2013 he started at 740k and he did drop but his scores were still massive, his final price reflected a string of bad games at the end of the year. Bottom line he's too good not to start him.

With bargain options around, in mid and in other positions (Belly, Clark, Whitecross, Rich, Waters, Leuenberger, Kreuzer) - all these guys are priced below what they can score you so you're easily saving the cash to invest into an Ablett over a Jelwood/Watson/JPK/Beams... He will probably come down in price but then again that's what everyone said this year, and he tore up the opening rounds, his price didn't drop below it's start point until round 12. Ask yourself if you can afford not to have a guy who can average 140-150 points (as he did for those opening 12 rounds) for the first half of the season?

The gamble is maybe he can't do that again. And maybe he can't. But he'll probably go at least 120, good luck picking the value horse who gives you that consistently while saving you cash now...

If you aren't starting with Ablett I think you pretty much have to have Pendles, Fyfe, Jelwood and another big gun. I wouldn't start Rocky or Beams til we see how they travel together, I would be picking one of Watson or JPK... Round 12 bye is gonna suck this year!

[H1bb3i2d]

At the end of the day, he'll score exactly what you've paid for him too. If you save $100k and lose 20 points (eg Barlow at 112ppg vs Ablett at 132), that $100k can go and make you 20ppg elsewhere EASILY if used correctly. Could turn a midpricer into a premium. Sure it's tough bringing in a $700k player, but it's also equally tough bringing in 2 $600k guys too because you had to start a premium short.

I would love him. Will go 130+ again. Will he improve? Probably not. Will guys like Pendlebury and Barlow with the same bye? Probably. Therefore I'll start with them, because I can cram more value out of them, and therefore even more points elsewhere too.

[GoLions]

At the end of the day, he'll score exactly what you've paid for him too. If you save $100k and lose 20 points (eg Barlow at 112ppg vs Ablett at 132), that $100k can go and make you 20ppg elsewhere EASILY if used correctly. Could turn a midpricer into a premium. Sure it's tough bringing in a $700k player, but it's also equally tough bringing in 2 $600k guys too because you had to start a premium short.

I would love him. Will go 130+ again. Will he improve? Probably not. Will guys like Pendlebury and Barlow with the same bye? Probably. Therefore I'll start with them, because I can cram more value out of them, and therefore even more points elsewhere too.

Need to factor in the captaincy shower too.

E.g. Ablett 132x2 + 105avg mid (20ppg less than Pendles essentially) = 369 points
Pendles 125x2 + Barlow 112 = 362 points

So unless you can pick out a player (or two) who improves by a fair bit, there's not really much to gain by not going with Ablett unless you think his avg will drop significantly, and/or someone like Pendles (who will be your captain) will increase significantly.

Barring injury, Gaz is locked for me atm.

[H1bb3i2d]

At the end of the day, he'll score exactly what you've paid for him too. If you save $100k and lose 20 points (eg Barlow at 112ppg vs Ablett at 132), that $100k can go and make you 20ppg elsewhere EASILY if used correctly. Could turn a midpricer into a premium. Sure it's tough bringing in a $700k player, but it's also equally tough bringing in 2 $600k guys too because you had to start a premium short.

I would love him. Will go 130+ again. Will he improve? Probably not. Will guys like Pendlebury and Barlow with the same bye? Probably. Therefore I'll start with them, because I can cram more value out of them, and therefore even more points elsewhere too.

Need to factor in the captaincy shower too.

E.g. Ablett 132x2 + 105avg mid (20ppg less than Pendles essentially) = 369 points
Pendles 125x2 + Barlow 112 = 362 points

So unless you can pick out a player (or two) who improves by a fair bit, there's not really much to gain by not going with Ablett unless you think his avg will drop significantly, and/or someone like Pendles (who will be your captain) will increase significantly.

Barring injury, Gaz is locked for me atm.

You are spot on, but the improvement is what I'm currently seeing. Yes there is the captaincy. But I think Ablett will start "slowly" (130ppg), Pendles is a few points underpriced (127) and so is Barlow (114).

FWIW I didn't start Pendles this year. Sure he scored a lot o' points, but picking him up straight after his bye avoided a donut. Lost say 10ppg having someone else instead (-70 points). Replacement scored 115 that week (so +45 points), and had a bye at a time where I had cover (who albeit probably scored 45 points less). So it all came down to where I spent that extra cash, which I'm sure ended up netting me some points. As said I'd love to start Ablett, but it all comes down to byes, and this time round it's Ablett who isn't underpriced.

[quinny88]

If you are going for overall you start Ablett or fall behind. Simple as that.
You can try and justify squeezing points out of others with more value but at the end of the day there is no player more valuable than Ablett because he is a perma captain and goes big EVERY week.