To Ablett or Not to Ablett

[Maggie May]

Perhaps, aside from the Defense conundrum, this will be the most intriguing selection decision for SC coaches in the 2015 pre-season.

In previous years, it has been a golden rule, start with Ablett. I personally have built my side around the midfield trio Ablett, Pendlebury and Selwood. However this year is he the "must have" of previous years? There are a couple of things to consider here.

First he is coming off an injury that kept him out for the last 7 weeks of the 2014 and is going to see him miss most of pre-season (a report I saw on the Gold Coast Big Footy Board suggested that he looks likely to miss the NAB Cup, but he is aiming to be right for round 1). As we saw last year with Swan even the best can be effected by an injury interrupted pre-season. Add to that, given he has missed so much football, does that put him at risk for soft tissue injuries when he does come back. He wouldn't be the first player to come back from an extended layoff only to have soft tissue injuries upon return.

The second thing to consider, he is about $30k more expensive than the next player (Rockliff), about $67k more expensive than Pendles and about $80-$120k more expensive than most of the Ultra-Premiums ($600k+ players) this year. Are his scores going be high enough to warrent the extra cash this year?Especially when you factor in trading him to someone my in the $80-$100k less bracket would allow you to turn a premium into another Ultra-Premium or a mid-pricer into a premium and giving you an additional keeper in your starting line up.

The third thing to consider, is if you don't take him would his price drop my enough to make him a realistic upgrade target during the season??

[Big Mac]

I thought I read that he has been training (just not doing ball work), but if you're right about him missing most of the preseason then that could be an issue. At this stage though, I'll be starting him. He is just too talented and I don't think a shoulder injury will stop him. Worst comes to worst and he does drop off slightly, he'll still keep his consistency and average atleast 125, which will still make him a great captaincy option.

[JBs-Hawks]

He should be doing all the running possible, shoulders dont really impair that.

[RaisyDaisy]

First picked every year until he gives me a reason not to, and I don't consider his shoulder a good enough reason

[meow meow]

I thought I read that he has been training (just not doing ball work), but if you're right about him missing most of the preseason then that could be an issue. At this stage though, I'll be starting him. He is just too talented and I don't think a shoulder injury will stop him. Worst comes to worst and he does drop off slightly, he'll still keep his consistency and average atleast 125, which will still make him a great captaincy option.

He's been doing all the ball work just no contact.

[H1bb3i2d]

Combined with his bye, I'll likely leave him out. I expect him to start "slowly" (130ppg?) compared to other years, therefore he's slightly overpriced. Pendles represents better value so I'll start with him, Rockliff is clearly the best round 11 bye midfielder. I probably wont have the money to get Ablett too, so I might get a Barlow instead as that second round 12 bye mid.

[fasttrack13]

Hard to pick IMO as he is priced so highly...
RD11 bye players Pendlebury, Fyfe, Kennedy, Barlow and Watson all 50-160k cheaper and i'd say should all average 115+.
Pick a few of those blokes, save 30-60k and upgrade an iffy high mid-priced player to a strong premo and you'll be 20-30pts better off each round.

[Grazz]

Most of what i have read has been positive regarding his shoulder.

[Jackross10]

People doubt him every preseason, start him or you'll be behind. Gary is a lock every year if he lines up round 1..

[Holz]

Ablett pendles just auto move into my team than I start choosing the squad.

[Money Shot]

In my opinion it is a bigger risk to start without him then with him.

[GM]

In my opinion it is a bigger risk to start without him then with him.

My Gut is changing, lol.

[eaglesman]

I am going without him at this stage ...

He will come down in price and will get him
On the cheap ...

[kilbluff1985]

I am going without him at this stage ...

He will come down in price and will get him
On the cheap ...

i had the same idea this year and ended up paying 750k for him lol

[ben_020285]

I won't be starting with him. Would rather pick a Premo mid who is 100k cheaper and who I feel is likely to average around about the same next year.

Then I'll put that extra 100k to good use elsewhere.