2015 Ruck Strategy

[Doggoneit]

Once again Rucks look very interesting in 2015

There is a large group that are capable of Elite 110+ output.
90% of these guys are injury plagued - so no matter who you start with you carry risk
This is a High Risk High Reward area though - getting your starting rucks right will take you a long way in this game.

What will your ruck strategy be in 2015?
What will be your backup plan for when the inevitable injury comes?




Jacobs - top ruck in 2014 played all 22 for an excellent 115 average. missed only 4 games in last 4 years and avg has been 93, 101, 85 & 115. Will turn 27 early in 2015 so should be entering his prime years. Doesn't have injury history. Will be premium priced at  $620,000.

Mumford - averaged 114 in 2014 and thrived at his new club GWS - missed 5 games through injury again which is the risk he brings. He has never played all 22 with the most of any season 19 in 2013 and 2010. Priced at $614,000 - you will get what you pay for as he is capable of monster scores.

Stefan Martin - the shock of 2014 - hit the park in Rd 12 and pumped out a 112 average, way above anything he had previously shown his previous best was an 86 avg back in 2011 - if Luey is back for 2015 he is unlikely to repeat. Overpriced at $600,000

Sandi - has been injury plagued but only missed one game in 2014 and averaged 108. first full season he has had since 2008, 09 & 10. He has just turned 32yo. Priced at $581,000, like Mummy you get what you pay for if he stays injury free.

Goldy - he has been the most reliable over the last 2 years missing only on game with consistent scoring and averages of 113 and 107 - reasonably priced at $574,000 and at 26yo has plenty left.

Maric  - came back from injury in 2014 and after starting slowly in his first 3 games managed to average 107 across the last 10 rounds. His return also coincided with the Tiges going on a winning streak. The premium ruck of 2012 when he averaged 113 he is nicely priced at $536,000

Lobbe - Emerging ruckman who put in a solid effort in the 2nd half of 2013 averaging 97 over the last 12 games. He backed that up with a very good 101 avg in 2014 where he once again was stronger in the 2nd half of the season averaging 109 across the last 14 games (this was highly impacted by one monster score of 178 in rd 21 - without this game his avg drops to 103). Will he be impacted by the arrival of Ryder? Now priced up at $541,000 there are probably better options.

Minno - only averaged 93 in 2014 after his AA 2013 with 114 avg. It was revealed post season he played through 2014 with a back injury. Interestingly his output game to game was very consistent, similar to his 2013. Did his injury stop him from getting that extra 20%.  Is the injury behind him? Priced at $501,000 he is value if he can once again mix it with the big boys.

Nic Nat - Injury plagued over the last 2 years he has still managed averages of 96 and 91. A far cry from his best year in 2012 when he pumped out a 114 average. ( I miss those were the days when he and Cox were DPP's). He played the post season International Rules games so does that mean his injury is behind him ? With Cox retired he becomes the #1 ruck and priced at $488,000 he screams value.

Leuenberger - hasnt proved elite output. Played 22 in 2011 for a 102 avg and played 20 in 2013 for a 97 avg. Is the #1 ruck at Lions but how will Martins emergence affect his ability to score SC pts.  At 26yo he should be entering his prime if he can out his injury's behind him. Est price with discount $358,000 - at this price he is hard to ignore for a proven 100 pt ruck.

Kruezer - another who has been injury plagued and has rarely had a chance to show his best. There was a patch in 2013 between injuries where he had a 116 avg (taking out injury affected games). As a 26yo this could be his first ever full pre-season. Will Mick experiment with playing him forward? Price $371,000 - hard to ignore if hes does get through a pre-season. Can he be in 2015 what Sandi was in 2014


Forward/Ruck options

Ryder - in 2012 he averaged 110 before injury. 2013 was injury interupted again and his form was also down averaging just 89. Bounced back in 2014 with a 101 average but if you take out 2 injury games he averaged 108. His scoring however is inconsistent both year to year and game to game. How will his move to Port change his scoring potential?; how much ruck time will he play with Lobbe? Priced at $544,000 there are probably safer options.

Hale - still commands a place in the Hawks best 22 but his average dropped from 84 to 73 last year - can he get back to 85-90 average ?  $393,000

Brown - hit the scene last year as playing as a fwd, pinch hitting for Goldy - averaged 67 . He is not going to take over from Goldy or even share ruck duties though but does seem to be Brad Scotts' preferred option as ruck back up. Price $359,000

Gawn - developing ruck - but who will be the preferred rucks for Melb? Price $340,000

Bellchambers - coming back from injury. Previously shared ruck/fwd duties with Ryder - Will he be #1 ruck now or will Giles take that with Belly playing more forward ? Priced at $302,000 he is value but has never been a premium scorer.

McKernan - not likely to get games - behing Giles and Belly - Price $260,000

Wright - Top 10 draft pick. Will need to monitor his pre-season but he might walk straight into the GC 22. Price $182,000 - is he a R3/F8 option ?



Do you lock and load 2 solid premiums (eg Goldy & Maric) and set and forget?

Do you take one solid premium and one cheap risk (eg Goldy and Luey) ?


How are you going to play it?

[Big Mac]

Going Goldy and Kreuz at this stage. Goldy is the only one I think can back it up next year, and Kreuz is the only mid pricer i'm liking at the moment.

[Mat0369]

I am almost spamming with this, but it is relevant. I posted this at the start of the season

Found it

Going back to the rucks in 2013

93 is not a good average for a guy that you just paid top dollar for at his position. That is a 20 ppg drop between the two seasons. For those complaining about Jacobs last season, he only dropped 16 ppg last year. McEvoy averaged 93.3 (11 ppg drop) and yet there was also criticism of his season last year, so Goldstein had a shocker for a premium ruck in 2012.

My point is that unless your name is Dean Cox in the last 5 years I am not paying top dollar for a ruck in SC. Sandilands is about the only guy you could have argued for in that time frame and he has had his own injury issues. All the value rucks have come in at under 500k the last few seasons. The 'warhorse' guys like Goldstein, Minson, Mummy, Maric, Jacobs and co that have rucked alone for extended periods of the season have flopped the year after. Just be careful who you pick and you are probably better off trying to hit with a combo under 500k and try and find this years Goldy/Leuenberger/Minno instead of paying top dollar for a guy in the ruck.

And for the record I started with Goldstein and Leuenberger as my two rucks in 2013

Minson won't be top priced next year. Sandi and Jacobs will be though. I went through this in another thread before the season started but Cox is the only guy that has backed up other then Sandilands before his injury issues. Most of the top rucks the last few years have all been under 500k to start the season.

Top priced rucks are not worth it, plain and simple

The moral of the story, avoid top priced rucks at the start of the year.

[Grazz]

Nice work mate.
Looking at Goldy and Nic Nat at the minute myself.

[Money Shot]

I'm looking at Kreuzer and Leuy in the rucks and playing Belly at forward 5 for support. And for a 5th forward early a average of 70 is good and I think he could and should go 80+

[Ricochet]

I am almost spamming with this, but it is relevant. I posted this at the start of the season

Found it

Going back to the rucks in 2013

93 is not a good average for a guy that you just paid top dollar for at his position. That is a 20 ppg drop between the two seasons. For those complaining about Jacobs last season, he only dropped 16 ppg last year. McEvoy averaged 93.3 (11 ppg drop) and yet there was also criticism of his season last year, so Goldstein had a shocker for a premium ruck in 2012.

My point is that unless your name is Dean Cox in the last 5 years I am not paying top dollar for a ruck in SC. Sandilands is about the only guy you could have argued for in that time frame and he has had his own injury issues. All the value rucks have come in at under 500k the last few seasons. The 'warhorse' guys like Goldstein, Minson, Mummy, Maric, Jacobs and co that have rucked alone for extended periods of the season have flopped the year after. Just be careful who you pick and you are probably better off trying to hit with a combo under 500k and try and find this years Goldy/Leuenberger/Minno instead of paying top dollar for a guy in the ruck.

And for the record I started with Goldstein and Leuenberger as my two rucks in 2013

Minson won't be top priced next year. Sandi and Jacobs will be though. I went through this in another thread before the season started but Cox is the only guy that has backed up other then Sandilands before his injury issues. Most of the top rucks the last few years have all been under 500k to start the season.

Top priced rucks are not worth it, plain and simple

The moral of the story, avoid top priced rucks at the start of the year.

Not spamming when its 100% spot on mate.

[meow meow]

Sandi will give you the scores you want and paid for but his injury risk is the only concern. Played 21 this year and was rested, not injured in the other one. Massive POD, literally. With Griffin being so cheap and being a pretty gun ruck himself when he plays, I might go with 211 and will be content with Griff as cover. It'll pay off if Kroozberger is a failure.

[Holz]

Sandi will give you the scores you want and paid for but his injury risk is the only concern. Played 21 this year and was rested, not injured in the other one. Massive POD, literally. With Griffin being so cheap and being a pretty gun ruck himself when he plays, I might go with 211 and will be content with Griff as cover. It'll pay off if Kroozberger is a failure.

why would you pick Sandi when Goldy will score more and is much less of an injury risk?

[Mat0369]

How much is Griff expected to be priced?

[meow meow]

Sandi will give you the scores you want and paid for but his injury risk is the only concern. Played 21 this year and was rested, not injured in the other one. Massive POD, literally. With Griffin being so cheap and being a pretty gun ruck himself when he plays, I might go with 211 and will be content with Griff as cover. It'll pay off if Kroozberger is a failure.

why would you pick Sandi when Goldy will score more and is much less of an injury risk?

Why didn't Goldy outscore him this year? He's no certainty to outscore 211. With Waite in the team the Roos can give Petrie a run in the ruck every now and then.

How much is Griff expected to be priced?

150K

[Holz]

Sandi will give you the scores you want and paid for but his injury risk is the only concern. Played 21 this year and was rested, not injured in the other one. Massive POD, literally. With Griffin being so cheap and being a pretty gun ruck himself when he plays, I might go with 211 and will be content with Griff as cover. It'll pay off if Kroozberger is a failure.

why would you pick Sandi when Goldy will score more and is much less of an injury risk?

Why didn't Goldy outscore him this year? He's no certainty to outscore 211. With Waite in the team the Roos can give Petrie a run in the ruck every now and then.

How much is Griff expected to be priced?

150K

Because he got injured and played through it as north have no other good rucks. When he was fully fit in the second half of the year he was the best ruck in the comp.

[kilbluff1985]

have fun if you're starting Sandi next year the older he gets the more he will get managed especially since they got guys that can play like Clarke and Hannath and Griff

[fasttrack13]

Goldy averaged 113 in the 2nd half of the year mate. The fact he has the potential to score 110+ makes him a bargain at 570-580

My ruck strategy is the loophole
Goldstein, Leuenberger (Kreuzer, King)
Worried about kreuzer and leuy though with stef martin and cam wood respectively. Mick loves woody!

[Mat0369]

have fun if you're starting Sandi next year the older he gets the more he will get managed especially since they got guys that can play like Clarke and Hannath and Griff

I think that was the point of the Sandi/Griff combo, when Sandi is out you have his automatic replacement at 150k which is the perfect safety net. It is what a lot of people did with Currie/Goldstein this year.

I still think you are better off with a combo of Nic Nat/Minno, Kreuz and Berger

Worried about kreuzer and leuy though with stef martin and cam wood respectively. Mick loves woody!

Wood has no business being in the team and sure as hell won't be. First off he is still on the rookie list, Levi will be the 2nd ruck so if Kreuz is healthy he play as a sole ruck with Levi/Rowe spelling him and even if they do play Kreuz forward Warnock will be the starting ruck even though he is horrendous

[kilbluff1985]

have fun if you're starting Sandi next year the older he gets the more he will get managed especially since they got guys that can play like Clarke and Hannath and Griff

I think that was the point of the Sandi/Griff combo, when Sandi is out you have his automatic replacement at 150k which is the perfect safety net. It is what a lot of people did with Currie/Goldstein this year.

would be worried about them getting games into Hannath over Griff