PA's Captains - Round 23 = GrandFinal week

[pommyadam]

So, the final week of the season, and another week of Rocky C
but given that not all sides are equal, you may be looking at a POD, feel free to request one and I shall get onto it

Tom Rockliff
Last 3: 154, 165, 180 (average 166)
Last 3 vs Geelong: 140, 77, 128 (average 115)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 140, 87 (average 114)
Mids vs Geelong: 108, 106, 137. Last-3 average of 117, last-5 average of 114. 17/21 make the ton, 13/21 over 110, and 7/21 over 130.
Prediction: Rocky needs 112 to pass Swan's average. Can he do it here? Yes. A 3-round average unlikely to ever be seen again, and does well against Geelong, and good at Kardinia. But Geelong have tightened up recently (only 1 score over 115 since rd17 - to Barlow), so they do leak to a premo mid - 125

Matt Priddis
Last 3: 79, 98, 146 (average 108)
Last 3 vs GoldCoast: 108, 100, 133 (average 114)
Last 3 at Metricon: 81 (waaaay back in 2008, last-3 average of 92 in QLD)
Mids vs GoldCoast: 137, 97, 124. Last-3 average of 119, last-5 average of 133 (Rocky-affected). 20/21 make the ton, 17/21 pass 110, and 9/21 pass 130.
Prediction: In reasonable form, does well against GoldCoast. But no history to speak of at Metricon, and okay in the trip to Queensland. GoldCoast have tightened up recently too, so yeah.... - 105

Jordan Lewis
Last 3: 108, 156, 144 (average 136)
Last 3 vs Collingwood: 120, 89, 77 (average 95)
Last 3 at MCG: 144, 119, 120 (average 128)
Mids vs Collingwood: 165, 165, 146. Last-3 average of 159, last-5 average of 139. 17/21 make the ton, 14/21 pass 110, and 8/21 pass 130.
Prediction: Macaffer going down (as well as the rest of the team) suddenly puts him as prime POD. In great form, and does well at the MCG. Reasonable against Collingwood, who are leakier than a sieve right now - 130

Joel Selwood
Last 3: 87, 104, 130 (average 107)
Last 3 vs Brisbane: 104, 97, 121 (average 107)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 130, 81, 70 (average 94)
Mids vs Brisbane: 109, 96, 160. Last-3 average of 121, last-5 average of 114. 19/21 make the ton, 16/21 pass 110, and 9/21 pass 130. Only 1 mid (Sloane) has passed 130 since rd13 though, so they're pretty tight lately
Prediction: In good form, and does well against Brisbane. Seems to have turned the corner generally, and on the improve at home, so should be a good one here. Not too big because no-one scores well on Brisbane anymore - 110

Scott Pendlebury
Last 3: 111, 107, 95 (average 104)
Last 3 vs Hawks: 106, 96, 111 (average 104)
Last 3 at MCG: 95, 97, 84 (average 92)
Mids vs Hawks: 116, 128, 102. Last-3 average of 115, last-5 average of 116. 20/21 make the ton, 16/21 pass 110, and 9/21 make 130.
Prediction: In good form, and does well against Hawthorn, but no recent tons at the MCG, which serves against him here. And will his scores be impacted by his teammates (or lack thereof)? - 100

Steele Sidebottom
Last 3: 96, 94, 101 (average 97)
Last 3 vs Hawks: 89, 49, 97 (average 78)
Last 3 at MCG: 94, 142, 123 (average 120)
Mids vs Hawks: 116, 128, 102. Last-3 average of 115, last-5 average of 116. Give up an average of 3 tons per game, generally to mid, mid, fwd, def.
Prediction: In good form, and does great at the MCG, but POOR against the Hawks (okay, he's not too bad if you discount that 49) - 95

Tom Liberatore
Last 3: 94, 97, 81 (average 91)
Last 3 vs GWS: 82, 61, 48 (average 64)
Last 3 at Etihad: 94, 97, 81 (average 91)
Mids vs GWS: 133, 112, 130. Last-3 average of 125, last-5 average of 129. 19/21 tons, 18/21 over 110, and 8/21 over 130.
Prediction: Looks in reasonable form, both generally and at Etihad, but poor in his recent times against GWS (only played once since he became DT-relevant though), but still can't peg him for a decent score - 95

Bryce Gibbs
Last 3: 113, 91, 122 (average 109)
Last 3 vs Essendon: 101, 67, 123 (average 97)
Last 3 at MCG: 95, 112, 113 (average 109)
Mids vs Essendon: 115, 119, 123. Last-3 average of 119, last-5 average of 120. 18/21 make the ton, 13/21 pass 110, and 7/21 pass 130.
Prediction: Inconsistent against Essendon, but in good form and does well at the MCG. Essendon give up some reasonable scores, but too many are marooned in that 105 range, I'm banking on Gibbs being another - 105

Toby Greene
Last 3: 165, 126, 127 (average 139)
Last 3 vs WB: 78, 90 (average 84)
Last 3 at Etihad: 86, 113, 88 (average 96)
Mids vs WB: 116, 127, 97. Last-3 average of 114, last-5 average of 112. 19/21 make the ton, 16/21 over 110, and 3/21 over 130.
Prediction: Borderline Rocky-form... but okay against WB (yeah, it's his 4th year, we'll cut him some slack), and does well at Etihad. WB give up some reasonable scores, and I see no reason to suggest that this will be different - 115

Brendon Goddard
Last 3: 137, 61, 89 (average 96)
Last 3 vs Carlton: 110, 122, 92 (average 108)
Last 3 at MCG: 89, 157, 114 (average 120)
Mids vs Carlton: 137, 104, 114. Last-3 average of 118, last-5 of 115. 19/21 pass the ton, 12/21 make 110, and 5/21 pass 130.
Prediction: Does well against Carlton, and also at the MCG, but form is inconsistent. Carlton give up few tons, and not many of them go on with it, so I'm predicting another small score here - 100

Luke Shuey
Last 3: 103, 119, 127 (average 116)
Last 3 vs GoldCoast: 148, 72 (average 110)
Last 3 in Queensland: 106, 55, 94 (average 85) - no data for Metricon
Mids vs GoldCoast: 137, 97, 124. Last-3 average of 119, last-5 average of 133. Give up a lot of tons (around 5 per game), to a variety of players... tends to be one of each position, and maybe 2 mids
Prediction: In good form, and does well against GoldCoast (nothing before 2012 though), and no history at Metricon. Hard to call this one, but GC are giving up a lot of points - 105

Dyson Heppell
Last 3: 120, 129, 101 (average 117)
Last 3 vs Carlton: 120, 122, 82  (average 108)
Last 3 at MCG: 129, 83, 102 (average 105)
Mids vs Carlton: 137, 104, 114. Last-3 average of 118, last-5 of 115. 19/21 pass the ton, 12/21 make 110, and 5/21 pass 130.
Prediction: In good form, does well against Carlton, and does well at the MCG. May get tagged, but will probably head to the newly returned captain - 110

Adam Treloar
Last 3: 93, 101, 84 (average 93)
Last 3 vs WB: 98, 81, 63 (average 81)
Last 3 at Etihad: 69, 105, 109 (average 94)
Mids vs WB: 116, 127, 97. Last-3 average of 114, last-5 average of 112. Give up around 3 tons per game, 1 mid, 1 fwd, 1 def.
Prediction: If only he could start games well :( In okay form, and consistent at Etihad (that sub 70 was his first score under 99). But makes a slow start, and probably won't be the leading mid.... - 95

Sam Mitchell
Last 3: 95, 105, 93 (average 98)
Last 3 vs Collingwood: 80, 98, 109 (average 96)
Last 3 at MCG: 95, 93, 97 (average 95)
Defs vs Collingwood: 108, 147, 140. Last-3 average of 132, last-5 average of 119. 16/21 pass 90, 9/21 make the ton, and 3/21 pass 120 (all of which have passed 140 though)
Prediction: Look at those stats, such a steal as a def, just a solid contributor. Will be virtually assured of the top def with Hodgey now out, and will now avoid the inevitable Caffa tag. Collingwood may leak, but this will either be big or around the 90s, I'm hedging my bets - 105

Matthew Boyd
Last 3: 110, 84, 54 (average 83)
Last 3 vs GWS: 131, 115 (average 123)
Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 84, 54 (average 83)
Mids vs GWS: 133, 112, 130. Last-3 average of 125, last-5 average of 129. GWS give up around 2-3 tons per game, all to mids.
Prediction: If you're feeling bold... his season high this year came against these ;) Improving his form, and does well against GWS. Likely to avoid the tag-team (I see Griffen and Libba ahead of him now, possibly even Macrae), do you feel lucky punk? - 110

Chris Judd
Last 3: 87, 95, 93 (average 92)
Last 3 vs Essendon: 85, 74, 74 (average 78)
Last 3 at MCG: 97, 102, 95 (average 98)
Mids vs Essendon: 115, 119, 123. Last-3 average of 119, last-5 average of 120. Essendon give up 4 tons per game, 2 mids, 1 def, 1 fwd (or mid, depends)
Prediction: In good form, does well at the MCG, but poor against Essendon. May be good for a ton, but can't tell with Carlton's motivation given that the 8 is out of the picture - 90

Paul Chapman
Last 3: 117, 70, 105 (average 97)
Last 3 vs Carlton: 134, 82, 89 (average 102)
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 114, 64 (average 94)
FWDs vs Carlton: 119, 81, 100. Last-3 average of 100, last-5 of 92. 17/21 over 80, 10/21 make the ton, and 8/21 pass 110.
Prediction: Fast Fact, Chappy is the only "forward" to have scored over 120 vs Carlton this season, so good omens? In good form, and does well against Carlton, and in good form at the MCG (but is prone to some shockers), not a C option, but a good fwd target - 105

Michael Barlow
Last 3: 128, 137, 124 (average 130)
Last 3 vs Port: 88, 77, 109 (average 91)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 128, 124, 89 (average 114)
Mids vs Port: 113, 122, 110. Last-3 average of 115, last-5 average of 123. 21/21 make the ton, 16/21 pass 110, and 8/21 pass 130.
Prediction: Is he fully over his injury? Hmmm.... In good form, does well vs Port, and likes playing at home. Looks good for top scorer, and Port gtive up solid scores, but is he 100%? - 110

Jackson Macrae
Last 3: 116, 74, 102 (average 97)
Last 3 against GWS: 134, 71 (average 103)
Last 3 at Etihad: 116, 74, 129 (average 106)
Mids vs GWS: 133, 112, 130. Last-3 average of 125, last-5 average of 129. 19/21 tons, 12/21 scores over 120. Around 3 tons per game, all to mids.
Prediction: In good form, does well against GWS, and does well at Etihad. He may cop a slight tag, but GWS give up some big scores, and this doesn't look like changing - 110

Matthew Stokes
Last 3: 102, 65, 51 (average 73)
Last 3 vs Brisbane: 91, 105, 116 (average 104)
Last 3 at Skilled: 51, 141, 96 (average 96)
Mids vs Brisbane: 107, 96, 160. Last-3 average of 121, last-5 of 114. Brisbane give up around 3 tons per game, 2 to mids, and 1 to fwds.
Prediction: Is Stokes a chance for the 2nd mid ton?... Does well against Brisbane, but inconsistent at home, and in poor form over recent weeks, it's a pass from me - 95

THE LIST
Jordan Lewis - 130
Tom Rockliff - 125
Toby Greene - 115
Jackson Macrae - 110
Joel Selwood - 110
Dyson Heppell - 110
Matthew Boyd - 110
Michael Barlow - 110
Matt Priddis - 105
Luke Shuey - 105
Bryce Gibbs - 105
Sam Mitchell - 105
Paul Chapman - 105
Scott Pendlebury - 100
Brendon Goddard - 100
Steele Sidebottom - 95
Tom Liberatore - 95
Adam Treloar - 95
Matthew Stokes - 95
Chris Judd - 90

[pommyadam]

Yeah, I know... A big call in not making Rocky #1, but if you're looking for that POD, then feel free

note that my decision is based on how leaky Collingwood are recently, which has scaled it up a bit (would've been around 115 otherwise)

[Ricochet]

Can you have a look at Pendles, Sidey, Libba and Gibbs please mate? for XVs purposes

[BGK]

Could you have a look at Greene please?

[pommyadam]

requests have been updated

Greene looks pretty nice, a worthy option for a POD (note that I don't call the big scores unless I absolutely have no other choice - like Rocky last week, and Gaj vs Hawks)

[Chrisso1]

You don't think Hawks might hold back a bit? Seriously considering going Lewis because I'm 8th overall and need a unique POD to make up points.

Just hope they wouldn't sub him out or something if they're looking like an easy win anyway.

Thoughts on Goddard? Shuey?

Cheers mate.

[nrich102]

125 for Rockliff? Pfft, he'll get that by half time.

Other than that, good write up mate.

[Ricochet]

Legend, thanks mate

[Nige]

Heppell and Treloar, cheers.

[LF]

Smitch,Boyd,Judd please

[pommyadam]

Requests have been updated

Nigey - can't split them, I'd probably go with Heppell because Treloar starts too slowly (so watch him pump out a 50 point Q1 now :P )

luvfooty - do you feel lucky? the safer option is Smitch, but Boyd is a nice speculative punt

[LF]

Requests have been updated

Nigey - can't split them, I'd probably go with Heppell because Treloar starts too slowly (so watch him pump out a 50 point Q1 now :P )

luvfooty - do you feel lucky? the safer option is Smitch, but Boyd is a nice speculative punt

Haha it's for my Americas team GF and it's been a hard task picking a captain since Gazza got injured and the other team has Rocky as captain so might be worth a risk

[Nige]

Cheers PA, going with Heppell for pretty much the reasons you've given.  8)

[BGK]

After a run of shower luck, I'm going the YOLO option of Kennedy and Hervey to Greene and Boyd off the back of Boyd's stats.

[Alka]

Hmm, wasn't looking at Lewis before, but might have to make room for him, I was originally thinking Greene. I thought the Hawks might ease off a bit. Still, given his form, and no Macaffer, it's probably the obvious option.

Thanks Pommy. Hope you've hit a winner this week!