WXV Trade Talk

[elephants]

"Feel that Libba and Harley are younger and average more than counterparts, and that assumptions over long term positions shouldnt carry as much weight"

Thats the whole bloody point of the trade

Gunston is a forward 90 average forward, Bennell will not be a forward- he is an injury prone 95 mid.

Or was the real reason it was negged was because Dublin were involved?

If it were any other team it would have passed.

Anyway how do we move forward to get it approved.

I haven't really got involved in this at all and I don't wanna start anything but the quote clearly stated it shouldn't carry AS MUCH weight. It can carry some weight, but it shouldn't be the SOLE reason for a trade.

[AaronKirk]

"Feel that Libba and Harley are younger and average more than counterparts, and that assumptions over long term positions shouldnt carry as much weight"

Thats the whole bloody point of the trade

Gunston is a forward 90 average forward, Bennell will not be a forward- he is an injury prone 95 mid.

Or was the real reason it was negged was because Dublin were involved?

If it were any other team it would have passed.

Anyway how do we move forward to get it approved.

I haven't really got involved in this at all and I don't wanna start anything but the quote clearly stated it shouldn't carry AS MUCH weight. It can carry some weight, but it shouldn't be the SOLE reason for a trade.

Team structure long term is more important than losing 10-15 ppg based on 2014 averages

I don't really see the controversy in the trade.

Ah well we will se if we can work something out, but either way very happy with our trades.

[Vinny]

So the Petrie trade got rejected because of the Rocky one.

Are we only allowed to re-negotiate with same person?

[Jroo]

So the Petrie trade got rejected because of the Rocky one.

Are we only allowed to re-negotiate with same person?

Yes lol.

[Toga]

Yay that none of our trades got rejected :D

Ftr, we didn't neg the Rocky deal, but surprised he keeps being traded! We wouldn't even consider trading him if we owned him!! :'(

Also didn't see a huge problem with the NDT picks trade, that #4 should be able to lock in a gem for them so worth some late pick downgrades.

[Nige]

Yay that none of our trades got rejected :D

Ftr, we didn't neg the Rocky deal, but surprised he keeps being traded! We wouldn't even consider trading him if we owned him!! :'(

Also didn't see a huge problem with the NDT picks trade, that #4 should be able to lock in a gem for them so worth some late pick downgrades.

Yeah, us minnows wouldn't dare trade Rocky but it's a luxury the better teams have.

[Vinny]

Yeah I wouldn't trade Rocky either unless an absolute ripper deal came in.

But it's hard to argue with Meows reasoning for the trade. Plus clearly no one can prove why it should be negged. Interested to see who the 5 coaches were. Hope they read Meows break-down of the trade.

[Memphistopheles]

"Feel that Libba and Harley are younger and average more than counterparts, and that assumptions over long term positions shouldnt carry as much weight"

Thats the whole bloody point of the trade

Gunston is a forward 90 average forward, Bennell will not be a forward- he is an injury prone 95 mid.

Libba will get tagged next year, his average will be similar or drop, while Boak will have a more experienced core around him to help beat the tag and I project he will average more- right in the prime of his career

Or was the real reason it was negged was because Dublin were involved? People seem to be scared when Holz makes a big trade.

Anyway how do we move forward to get it approved.

My issue with this trade was simple and related to Ossie's comment.

I believe Bennell will keep dpp for several seasons and maybe even his whole career give the strength of the Suns other mids and what he can give them as a forward.

So therefore:

Libba > Boak and Bennell > Gunston.

Holz needs to add something to his side to get the deal done.

For the record this was the only trade Cape Town negged although I wanted to neg the Yeo/Polec one but Chumps persuaded me not to (I really rate Duffy and Tarrant despite them not having now shown much so far)

[Jroo]

"Feel that Libba and Harley are younger and average more than counterparts, and that assumptions over long term positions shouldnt carry as much weight"

Thats the whole bloody point of the trade

Gunston is a forward 90 average forward, Bennell will not be a forward- he is an injury prone 95 mid.

Libba will get tagged next year, his average will be similar or drop, while Boak will have a more experienced core around him to help beat the tag and I project he will average more- right in the prime of his career

Or was the real reason it was negged was because Dublin were involved? People seem to be scared when Holz makes a big trade.

Anyway how do we move forward to get it approved.

My issue with this trade was simple and related to Ossie's comment.

I believe Bennell will keep dpp for several seasons and maybe even his whole career give the strength of the Suns other mids and what he can give them as a forward.

So therefore:

Libba > Boak and Bennell > Gunston.

Holz needs to add something to his side to get the deal done.

For the record this was the only trade Cape Town negged although I wanted to neg the Yeo/Polec one but Chumps persuaded me not to (I really rate Duffy and Tarrant despite them not having now shown much so far)

Yep, Libba > Boak and Bennell > Gunston.

You didn't neg any if mine  :o :P

[Holz]

[quote author=Vinny link=topic=98374.msg1497865#msg1497865 date=1415868923. Plus clearly no one can prove why it should be negged. Interested to see who the 5 coaches were. Hope they read Meows break-down of the trade.
[/quote]

I read the break down and it's flawed.


The reason why it should go down is coming up

[meow meow]

Here Holz, I'll save you the trouble.

"Mexico City are my #1 challenger and I don't want them to have Rocky so I am going to hone in on the most minute detail."

I think people sometimes forget that the absolute howlers of trades are the only ones that should be blocked. There has to be room for opinions along with facts.

Rocky > Gibbs
Gilbert < Sandi

That should be pretty obvious. Don't need to put it through the microscope to find a 0.2 point difference in average. I only did it to show that it was infact even, but people should have been able to realise that without the uber write up.

[JBs-Hawks]

I think people sometimes forget that the absolute howlers of trades are the only ones that should be blocked. There has to be room for opinions along with facts.

[Holz]

Rocky - Gibbs deal - the real story.

Issue 1: "Gilbert and Sandi have roughly the same amount of years left"

Gilbert has only just turned 28, he has been injured the last few years but he is best 22 and fully fit i expect him to play upward of 20 games and he should do so for the next 3-4 years at least as he is a rock in defence as stkilda rebuild.

Sandilands is about to turn 32 and is just as injury prone if not more, before this year he only played 32 out of 66 possible games. One more injury as a 32 year old and he is gone, unlike gilbert 4 years his junior. they still have griffin who will be fit and he can play, secondly they have clarke and bucnh of other rucks they will want to develop. I expect 1 year and i think he will be managed throughout it too.

the result: plenty of years left for gilbert v 1 managed year for sandi

Issue 2: the 2014 scoring analysis

Rocky (c) 264
Gilbert 55
319

Sandi (c) 216
Gibbs 106
322

I have issue with putting Gilbert down as a 55 average in this scenario, as the other 3 were fully fit and gilbert wasnt. Gilbert went 85 unsibbed from 8 games last year and the year before he went 74. So for the sake of fairness he should be a 75 average. Its like saying Sandi is a 65 average using last years stats.

So its

264 + 75 = 339
v
216 + 106 = 322

Issue 3 the predication analysis

Before: Rocky 240-260, Gilbert 75, Scully 80 = 395-415
After: Sandilands 220, Gibbs 105, Maguire 65 = 390

Im reasonably happy with this anaylsis, given its used to show why they won the trade. But im going to expand on this abit.

Gilbert as stated went 85 last year, 74 the year before and 80 the year before that. I feel its more 75-80 but being lenient ill leave it at 75. Rocky has been massively undervalued, he gets his points from tackles and possesions, SC has the scalling and they will win more games next year and there will be more points to go around and yes more to take off but it shouldnt affect him too much. 120 is the worst case scenario, im tipping more like 125.

Secondly Gibbs is higly suspect, no clue how he can be locked in for a 105. the previous 3 years he has gone 103 95 95 and now 106. He had to play 100% of the season in the midfield to get that score, who is to say he wont get thrown around like he has been historically and drop back down to the 95 score. Secondly Carlton are rubbish and when they are getting pumped each week he will struggle to score as he doesnt put up the sheer possesions and tackles that a rocky type does.

If we are putting Rocky as a 120-130 than gibbs should also be a 95-105. For lenience again ill put him 100-105 even though i disagree

So its

Before: Rocky 240-260, Gilbert 75, Scully 80 = 395-415
After: Sandilands 220, Gibbs 100- 105, Maguire 65 = 385 - 390

Result: So next year they are predicted to lose on points by as little as 5 points and possibly 30 points.

Issue 4 the predication analysis in future years

As stated Gilbert has alot more years than Sanid so in 2-3 when Gilbert is still around and Sandi is not here is what it does.

Before: Rocky 240-260, Gilbert 75 = 315
After: Gibbs 100-105, Magurie 65  Captain 110 = 275 - 280

So this will result in 40-45 point loss in the medium term of 2-4 years.

When Gilbert does go its

Before: Rocky 240-260 = 240-260
After: Gibbs 100-105, Captain 110 = 210-215

So this is a 30-45 loss for the future.

Issue 5 This is Bad for the comp

Multiple Dublin Trades have got rejected for being not great for the comp and if thats the case than this is not just a bad trade but its bad for the comp.

Jroo did this analysis without this trade going through

Dublin: 1635
Mexico: 1607

As stated he has much much better depth than me so only 3 points difference in the starting squad with superior depth you could say he has a better squad next year

I have already stated how huge a win this is for Jroo, given Jroo's analysis i would say he is just as strong if not stronger than dublin already. This trade makes him easily the strongest team next year. If Dublin has trades getting rejected for getting too strong should a team getting stronger than Dublin also be rejected.


In summary:
Meow losses on points next year
Meow losses huge on points in the next 2-4 years
Meow losses very largely on points for the long term
Jroo has a crazy strong team and is just getting one of the most one sided trades ever go his way.


Result: Farcical if this goes through

[Vinny]

This was Gibbs' first season as a full time midfielder, he is only 26. I'd fully expect improvement. He won't be thrown around at all, he will play midfield. Easy 105.

[Holz]

Here Holz, I'll save you the trouble.

1. Mexico City are my #1 challenger and I don't want them to have Rocky so I am going to hone in on the most minute detail.]

2. I think people sometimes forget that the absolute howlers of trades are the only ones that should be blocked. There has to be room for opinions along with facts.

3. Rocky > Gibbs
Gilbert < Sandi

That should be pretty obvious. Don't need to put it through the microscope to find a 0.2 point difference in average. I only did it to show that it was infact even, but people should have been able to realise that without the uber write up.

1. I dont care who you traded with, this could have been with PNL or NDT and I look at the trade on its merits and its not a minute detail its glaring.

2. this is one of the worst trades ever and I dont agree with the voting system but this trade is what it was created for.

3.  Rocky >>>>> Gibbs
     Gilbert >= Sandi