PA's Captains - round 19 (loophole version)

[pommyadam]

So our captain's thread is back this week!
After last week and Rocky going bang (literally) to thwart all those SJ loopholers, we're presented with ANOTHER loophole opportunity, with Freo and Carlton locking horns on a Thursday night (uggh, another long round :( )
For you new people: I will attempt to help you all with a best guess based on past performances.

Feel free to hit me up with ANY requests for this week, and I'll cover them later.
This post covers the loophole options, and (basically) every other option is covered further down this page

How it works:
1.   Select a player from Freo/Carlton as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game (like Rockliff) in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

Michael Barlow
Last 3: 97, 89, 134 (average 106)
Last 3 against Carlton: 106, 105, 117 (average 109)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 89, 96, 104 (average 96)
Mids vs Carlton: 96, 130, 94. Last 3 average of 106 is the 2nd lowest in the league! Last 5 average of 118 is ranked 10th, and their season average of 115 is only bettered by Adelaide.
Prediction: Who'd want to play Carlton this season, they tag, bring you down to their level, and rarely give up big scores. Nevertheless, Barlow seems to avoid the tag, and looks pretty consistent against them - 115

Nathan Fyfe
Last 3: 99, 109, 86 (average 98)
Last 3 against Carlton: 101, 91, 92 (average 95)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 109, 125, 108 (average 114)
Mids vs Carlton: 96, 130, 94. Last 3 average of 106, last 5 average of 118. 9/17 have broken 110, and 15/17 have broken the ton. A season low of 94, and a season high of 153 (to a certain Lion in rd11)
Prediction: Shill set to be recalled helps his chances (taking the tag) but one may still find it's way to Fyfe. That said, looks like a good chance to still score well, with reasonable form against Carlton and better in home games. - 105

Aaron Sandilands
Last 3: 76, 73, 75 (average 75)
Last 3 against Carlton: 80, 95, 98 (average 91)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 76, 75, 90 (average 80)
Rucks vs Carlton: 97, 92, 52. Last 3 average of 80, but a last 5 average of 99. 6/16 over 90 (4 of which in the past 5 weeks).
Prediction: You think I'm crazy right? Hear me out... Average 99 over the 3 games after his bye (and did he have the week off last week?) Carlton are giving up some big ruckman scores recently (okay, exception being Longer), good history against Carlton, and does well at Subiaco too - 95

Marc Murphy
Last 3: 88, 113, 87 (average 96)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 55, 117, 105 (average 92)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 116, 117, 105 (average 113)
Mids vs Fremantle: 121, 125, 102. Last 3 average of 116, last 5 average of 126, and a season average of 121.
Prediction: Who does Crowley tag? Seems to be scoring well, and in ripper form at Subiaco - 115 (or 80 if tagged)

Bryce Gibbs
Last 3: 115, 118, 67 (average 100)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 69, 94, 139 (average 101)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 93, 73, 94 (average 87)
Mids vs Fremantle: 121, 125, 102. Last 3 average of 116, 15/17 have passed 90, and 10 of them have passed 120. You either go big or go home against Freo.
Prediction: Ahhh, Murphy's rival for the tag. Weller locked him up for 67 in rd16, so there's the possibility there. But in good form, but inconsistent against Freo, and I think he will be tagged - 70 (or 105 if not tagged)

Kade Simpson
Last 3: 120, 89, 70 (average 93)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 119, 140, 105 (average 121)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 69, 77, 140 (average 95)
Defs vs Fremantle: 135, 90, 77. Last 3 average of 101, last 5 average of 97. 12/17 have made 3 figures, and 9 of them have made 90.
Prediction: SO tempting given his Freo record, but his Subiaco record has been poor for the last few seasons. Still looks good for a decent score, so chuck him the VC if you're brave enough - 100

Loophole options:
Michael Barlow - 115
Marc Murphy - 115 (or 80 if tagged)
Nathan Fyfe - 105
Kade Simpson - 100
Aaron Sandilands - 95
Bryce Gibbs - 70 (or 105 if not tagged)

[kilbluff1985]

my only loophole option is Simpson lol

[pommyadam]

Decided to separate the loopholers from the other alternatives

Josh P Kennedy
Last 3: 101, 130, 96 (average 109)
Last 3 against Essendon: 139, 112, 101 (average 117)
Last 3 at SCG: 130, 136, 94 (average 120)
Mids vs Essendon: 129, 109, 91. Last 3 average of 109, last 5 average of 114, but a season average of 132. 14/17 tons, and 7/17 over 130.
Prediction: In red hot form, does well at the SCG, and against Essendon. Their season average is a ripper too, but their recent performances have been pretty miserly - 120

Lance Franklin
Last 3: 106, 114, 78 (average 99)
Last 3 against Essendon: 115, 122, 130 (average 122)
Last 3 at SCG: 114, 120, 122 (average 119)
FWDs vs Essendon: 71, 60, 97. Last 3 average of 76 (lowest in league), last 5 average of 82, season average of 97. 7/17 make the ton, and 3 go past 120.
Prediction: Unfortunately for him, Essendon have been pretty miserly in recent weeks, so that bodes against him. But loves it at the SCG and against Essendon, should still be a reasonable score though - 105

Brent Stanton
Last 3: 100, 150, 83 (average 111)
Last 3 against Sydney: 85, 149, 89 (average 108)
Last 3 at SCG: 149, 131, 69 (average 116) - 2 of those in 2009 or earlier though
Mids vs Sydney: 119, 118, 118. Last 3 average of 118, last-5 of 114, season average of 123.
Prediction: Ahh Mr Consistent :P Good form at the SCG (not sure how much you read into it though) and reasonable against Sydney, and a great last 3. - 115

Brendon Goddard
Last 3: 62, 87, 86 (average 78)
Last 3 against Sydney: 117, 90, 76 (average 94)
Last 3 at SCG: 90, 76, 95 (average 87)
Mids vs Sydney: 119, 118, 118. Last-3 of 118, last-5 of 114. 15/17 tons, and 7 have passed 130 (though none since rd13).
Prediction: Why is he even in my side? Horrible form, but does okay against Sydney and at the SCG, might lift for a big-game, but can't call it - 90

Jake Carlisle
Last 3: 165, 163, 64 (average 131)
Last 3 against Sydney: 32, 71, 40 (average 48)
Last 3 at SCG: 71 (only game)
fwd/def vs Sydney: 108, 89, 93. Last 3 average of 93, and a last 5 average of 104. Can't really say much else here.
Prediction: This is a joke right? HORRIBLE against Sydney, but a decent performance at his sole appearance at the SCG. Will he be moved down back to combat Tippett/Buddy/Goodes? possibly - 85

Patrick Dangerfield
Last 3: 89, 132, 60 (average 94)
Last 3 against WestCoast: 126, 95, 118 (average 113)
Last 3 at AdelaideOval: 132, 113, 73 (average 106)
FWDs vs WestCoast: 101, 105, 114. Last-3 of 107, last-5 of 104, season average of 102. 9/17 tons, and only 1 has passed 120 (but did make 163)
Prediction: Another one of the up-down players. How much will his knee affect him? Good history against WestCoast and good at home, so should be a solid performance - 105

Rory Sloane
Last 3: 62, 109, 143 (average 105)
Last 3 against WestCoast: 86, 83, 109 (average 93)
Last 3 at AdelaideOval: 109, 102, 106 (average 106)
Mids vs WestCoast: 103, 105, 125. Last 3 of 111, last 5 of 116, season average of 124. 17/17 tons, of which 9 have made 120+ and 3 have made 140+
Prediction: Might as well lock him in for a ton at home (9 games, 8 tons, average 105, max 113) But in good form and does well against WC, but no big scores bodes against him - 110

Matt Priddis
Last 3: 147, 83, 118 (average 116)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 93, 120, 95 (average 103)
Last 3 at AdelaideOval: NEVER PLAYED! (FootyPark last 3 is 100 [excluding early-subbed-for-4-game])
Mids vs Adelaide: 123, 103, 109. Last 3 average of 112, last-5 average of 119, and a season average of 116. 16/17 tons, but only 9/17 have made 110+
Prediction: In good form, and does reasonably well against Adelaide, but Adelaide don't give up big scores generally, which restricts him. - 105

Trent Cotchin
Last 3: 54, 100, 110 (average 88)
Last 3 against GWS: 102, 52, 87 (average 80)
Last 3 at MCG: 110, 118, 100 (average 109)
Mids vs GWS: 145, 110, 143. Last 3 average of 133, last-5 of 129, season average of 121. 3/17 over 140, and 14/17 over 110.
Prediction: GWS have been giving up big scores recently, but based on Cotchin's history against them.... it won't be him, looks okay for a solid score, but impending tag coming his way - 85

Dustin Martin
Last 3: 101, 80, 115 (average 99)
Last 3 against GWS: 111, 132, 86 (average 110)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 128, 111 (average 118)
Mids vs GWS: 145, 110, 143. L-3 of 133, L-5 of 129, season of 121. Goalkickers can also score big (as Jroo and JJK proved)
Prediction: GWS give up big scores, and Dusty's looking the most likely here. Looks tasty at the MCG, and good against GWS, so should be another solid score here too. - 115

Adam Treloar
Last 3: 95, 109, 97 (average 100)
Last 3 against Richmond: 118, 64, 17 (average 66)
Last 3 at MCG: 120, 87, 102 (average 103)
Mids vs Richmond: 147, 132, 137. Last-3 average of 139, last-5 of 127, season average of 125.
Prediction: Looks more solid than a legitimate C option, but nevertheless - in good form at the MCG, and in good form generally, not too great against Richmond, but two of those scores in the "first two GWS years" - 115


Callan Ward
Last 3: 111, 125, 67 (average 101)
Last 3 against Richmond: 63, 89, 77 (average 76)
Last 3 at MCG: 134, 139, 83 (average 119)
Mids vs Richmond: 147, 132, 137. L3 139, L5 127, Season 125. 16/17 over 110, and 8 of them have broken 130.
Prediction: LOVES the MCG, but a poor history against Richmond, might do well, but will defy history - 105

Dion Prestia
Last 3: 84, 81, 77 (average 81)
Last 3 against StKilda: 94, 81, 89 (average 88)
Last 3 at Metricon: 77, 132, 107 (average 105)
Mids vs StKilda: 99, 124, 87. Last-3 of 103 (lowest in league), last-5 of 111 (also lowest in league), but a season average of 122. 15/17 over 100, and 8.17 over 130.
Prediction: No Gaj, no hope? Looks that way for GC, and coming up against a side that's stopped letting you score big points (or to mids anyway), he's in poor form and it'll show here - 85

David Armitage
Last 3: 121, 153, 84 (average 119)
Last 3 against GoldCoast: 60, 112, 101 (average 91)
Last 3 at Metricon: NEVER PLAYED
Mids vs GoldCoast: 190, 168, 111. Last 3 average of 156 (highest in league by ~20 points), last-5 of 141 (also highest by ~8 points). 17/17 tons, and 8 of them over 130.
Prediction: FILL YER BOOTS! GoldCoast are letting them loose. In good form, but dies to a tag (ermm, where's GCs?) and does well against GC (had 3 straight tons before that 60) and likes playing in QLD. Ground history is an unknown, but here's a smoky captain choice - 125

Leigh Montagna
Last 3: 91, 82, 30 (average 68)
Last 3 against GoldCoast: 53, 123, 98 (average 91)
Last 3 at Metricon: 98, 99, 146 (average 114) - not played since 2012 though
Mids vs GoldCoast: 190, 168, 111. L-3 of 156, L-5 of 141. 8/17 tons. Average 3.5 tons per game, and generally all to mids (last game being an exception)
Prediction: In horrid form, but does well at Metricon, and okay-ish against GC. The fact that it is GC is a nice one though, but which Montags will turn up (the 30 effort vs Carlton, or the dominator of seasons past). Leaning more toward recent form here, rather than a stadium which he hasn't played in for 2 seasons. - 90

Levi Greenwood
Last 3: 92, 98, 131 (average 107)
Last 3 against Geelong: 146, 58 (average 102)
Last 3 at Etihad: 92, 131, 109 (average 111)
Mids vs Geelong: 113, 94, 119. Last-3 average of 108, last-5 average of 126, and a season average of 120. 13/17 tons, but 6 have passed 130.
Prediction: In good form, and does well against Geelong. But Geelong can either hold you to sub-ton, or let you loose. Probably the latter here, which should be a good performance - 120

Steve Johnson
Last 3: 145, 130, 131 (average 135)
Last 3 against North: 112, 60, 124 (average 99)
Last 3 at Etihad: 96, 77, 112 (average 95)
Mids vs North: 115, 153, 90. Last-3 of 119, last-5 of 133, season average of 128.
Prediction: In fantastic form, but that's the only thing working for him. He's played North twice in the last 5 years (that 124 was back in 2009) and doesn't really like playing at Etihad. Shame really - 110

Joel Selwood
Last 3: 140, 121, 81 (average 114)
Last 3 against North: 96, 98, 109 (average 101)
Last 3 at Etihad: 133, 79, 98 (average 103)
Mids vs North: 115, 153, 90. Last-3 of 119, last-5 of 133, season average of 128. 15/17 over 110, and 7 over 140.
Prediction: In reasonable form, should be refreshed after a week off, and likes playing at Etihad, but only does reasonably against North, which doesn't do him much good - 120

Dom Tyson
Last 3: 130, 68, 81 (average 93)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 74 (only game)
Last 3 at Etihad: 71, 116, 88 (average 92)
Mids vs Brisbane: 107, 106, 115. Last-3 of 109, last-5 of 114, season average of 132. 17/17 over 100, and 12/17 over 120.
Prediction: How much have Brisbane changed, only 1 score over 120 in their last 5 (after 11/12 to start the season). Doesn't look like changing here, even though Tyson is in some good form - 90

Tom Rockliff
Last 3: 190, 137, 122 (average 150)
Last 3 against Dees: 120, 125, 119 (average 121)
Last 3 at Etihad: 102, 83, 117 (average 101)
Mids vs Dees: 110, 130, 134. Last-3 of 125, last-5 of 125, and a season of 128. 5/17 over 140, and 10.17 over 120.
Prediction: For DT-sake, can we have this moved to the MCG? He's a freak, that form is freakish to say the least, and tears it up against the Dees too. - 130

Tom Liberatore
Last 3: 76, 101, 119 (average 99)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 93, 67, 60 (average 73)
Last 3 at Aurora: 93 (only game)
Mids vs Hawthorn: 130, 109, 131. Last-3 of 123, last-5 of 127, season average of 128.
Prediction: Did well in his game in Launceston previously, but that's all I can say, in good form generally too, but that 76 with Griff in the side doesn't do that well for him, will be lucky to break the ton imo - 90

Jackson Macrae
Last 3: 129, 168, 69* (average 122)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 83 (only game)
Last 3 at Aurora: 83 (only game)
Mids vs Hawthorn: 130, 109, 131. L3 of 123, L5 of 127, Season of 128. 16/17 tons, and 13 of which over 120.
Prediction: Did well in his sole game against Hawthorn down at Aurora. Seems to have been inspired since his vesting, and looks in decent form - 110

Steele Sidebottom
Last 3: 123, 109, 99 (average 110)
Last 3 vs Port: 107, 78, 117 (average 101)
Last 3 at MCG: 123, 109, 147 (average 126)
Mids vs Port: 130, 100, 118. Last-3 of 116, last-5 of 118, season average of 123.
Prediction: Has come back with a vengeance since he missed a few games, genuinely looks like Collingwood's most relevant DTer too, in good form, and should continue that here - 115

Scott Pendlebury
Last 3: 97, 84, 111 (average 97)
Last 3 against Port: 95, 108, 124 (average 109)
Last 3 at MCG: 97, 84, 128 (average 103)
Mids vs Port: 130, 100, 118. L3 of 116, L5 of 118, Season of 123. 17/17 tons, and 8/17 over 120.
Prediction: In okay form, and does reasonably at MCG and vs Port, but likely to cop a Cornes tag, so yeah - 95

Travis Boak
Last 3: 77, 132, 77 (average 95)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 72, 104, 106 (average 94)
Last 3 at MCG: 102, 83, 56 (average 80)
Mids vs Collingwood: 95, 150, 116. Last-3 of 120, last-5 of 118, and a season average of 117. 13/17 over a ton, and 8/17 over 120.
Prediction: Hi Macaffer, here's a fresh victim for you. Will eat a tag here, so will destroy his scores. Doesn't have a lot going for him anyway, so won't be too high. - 85

Dayne Beams
Last 3: 113, 98, 85 (average 99)
Last 3 against Port: 125, 85, 142 (average 117)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 98, 104 (average 105)
Mids vs Port: 130, 100, 118. L3 of 116, L5 of 118, Season of 123. Give up 3 tons per game, which is normally 2 to mids and 1 to somewhere else.
Prediction: In okay form (huh, I thought otherwise), and does well against Port and at the MCG, I think the top mid will still be Sidey though, but will still nab to a ton - 105


List of non-loopholers:
Tom Rockliff: 130
David Armitage: 125
JP Kennedy: 120
Joel Selwood: 120
Levi Greenwood: 120
Brent Stanton: 115
Dustin Martin: 115
Adam Treloar: 115
Steele Sidebottom: 115
Steve Johnson: 110
Rory Sloane: 110
Jackson Macrae: 110
Lance Franklin: 105
Matt Priddis: 105
Callan Ward: 105
Dayne Beams: 105
Patrick Dangerfield: 105
Scott Pendlebury: 95
Dom Tyson: 90
Tom Liberatore: 90
Leigh Montagna: 90
Brendon Goddard: 90
Travis Boak: 85
Trent Cotchin: 85
Jake Carlisle: 85
Dion Prestia: 85

[Ricochet]

Yeh its gonna have to be Simmo in RDT for me. Barlow in AF and maybe Pav in SB

[Jroo]

Barlow will get the VC this week.
Interesting to see if they tag Gibbs or Murphy, Gibbs has been in good form.

[pommyadam]

I'm thinking that Gibbs will take the tag, which is reflected in the predictions
BUT I've also given the options in case it heads to Murphy instead

and a real smoky VC in Simpson for you (he's been put onto my radar after looking at the numbers)

edit: DONE! If you have any requests, then go ahead (but I have NO IDEA what you're doing if I haven't covered him)

[Serial_T]

Beams and Greenwood please.

[GoLions]

Montagna please, think he could go big against the Suns

[jacksonmcguire]

Montagna please, think he could go big against the Suns

+1

Holding off trading him this week based on this..

[kilbluff1985]

i think they will tag Murphy and Gibbs tbh they have used Neale along with Crowley before to tag

[pommyadam]

Requests have been done! Go find 'em ;)
I've listed players in game order according to the AFL site, which makes them easier to find

but given that it's tiresome looking through all those to find the ones you want, I'll post the raw figures when I update it:
Greenwood: 120
D Martin: 115
D Beams: 105
Montagna: 90

I find that Barlow's the best captaincy option, but he's more consistent than big,
so with a VC in mind, I'd throw it on Simpson (purely because he has gone big in the past, and Freo are giving up some big-ish scores)

[Toga]

Simpson looking good!

[matt1985]

Who's taking Barlows 124? The C is on rocky but leaning towards taking Barlow.

[Sweetness]

Who's taking Barlows 124? The C is on rocky but leaning towards taking Barlow.

This is the question.
I have a feeling I may take Barlow.

[GoLions]

Who's taking Barlows 124? The C is on rocky but leaning towards taking Barlow.

This is the question.
I have a feeling I may take Barlow.

Sticking with Rocky