jpk vs priddis

Started by ando_10, July 28, 2014, 09:25:27 AM

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ando_10

keep in my mind i have no eagles players and 4 swans players not including JPK

GCSkiwi

Hmm tough. Straight comparison of Priddis vs JPK I think JPK wins easily, but factoring in you've already got 4 Swans makes it a tougher call when you're hunting overall... With that said, I think if the swans were to have a down game it's unlikely JPK would be the man to let you down, I'm assuming your other 4 are Buddy, Parker, Eski and McVeigh? If a Swan is to get a bad score I would put all 4 of them as more likely than JPK so I think the risk is already there, whether you get JPK or not...

justaverage

If $$$ doesn't matter go Priddis for a good POD

Grazz

I think JPK will score the most from here on in between the two so he's my pick.

Slashers

Quote from: Grazz on July 28, 2014, 11:14:13 AM
I think JPK will score the most from here on in between the two so he's my pick.
That's the question really, isn't it? So if you think about it, its totally irrelevant how many swans you have.
So GCSkiwi is also correct. Its the other Swans you have that will possibly be outscored by their respective alternatives.

Jroo

JPK for me. He's been superb this year and I think he'll finish the year strongly.

quinny88

Considering you're 3rd I would be looking at the teams in front of you.
The guy coming 1st has a handy lead and has neither of JPK or Priddis so a good chance to get a leg up there.
2nd place has JPK but no Priddis. Go with Priddis.. Go for gold ;)

GCSkiwi

Quote from: quinny88 on July 28, 2014, 01:43:24 PM
Considering you're 3rd I would be looking at the teams in front of you.
The guy coming 1st has a handy lead and has neither of JPK or Priddis so a good chance to get a leg up there.
2nd place has JPK but no Priddis. Go with Priddis.. Go for gold ;)

I completely accept this logic IF you're comparing two players who are relatively equal. I feel as though this isn't the case with JPK and Priddis - Priddis in great form recently but history tells you he's not a 120 average player. JPK has the history of posting that sort of an average, has had a bad run recently against tough teams. Both have pretty soft draws from this point, Priddis perhaps slightly harder (confident adelaide, something to prove pies, anything could happen essendon, greatly improved shut down dees, outside finals chance suns) than JPK (anything could happen essendon, slumping port, st kildhahahaha, western "our old VFL team is good" bulldogs and "I've run out of descriptions for mediocre" tigers)

H1bb3i2d

Quote from: GCSkiwi on July 28, 2014, 03:10:05 PM
Quote from: quinny88 on July 28, 2014, 01:43:24 PM
Considering you're 3rd I would be looking at the teams in front of you.
The guy coming 1st has a handy lead and has neither of JPK or Priddis so a good chance to get a leg up there.
2nd place has JPK but no Priddis. Go with Priddis.. Go for gold ;)

I completely accept this logic IF you're comparing two players who are relatively equal. I feel as though this isn't the case with JPK and Priddis - Priddis in great form recently but history tells you he's not a 120 average player. JPK has the history of posting that sort of an average, has had a bad run recently against tough teams. Both have pretty soft draws from this point, Priddis perhaps slightly harder (confident adelaide, something to prove pies, anything could happen essendon, greatly improved shut down dees, outside finals chance suns) than JPK (anything could happen essendon, slumping port, st kildhahahaha, western "our old VFL team is good" bulldogs and "I've run out of descriptions for mediocre" tigers)

At this stage and in this position, the 'Go for Gold' isn't about numbers. It's the fact that if you get the same player, you'll stay behind. If you get a POD, you then have a chance to make the ground up. Sure JPK may be say 60% more likely to score better, so you'd say he's the better option, but he'll get you nowhere on 2nd. With Priddis, whilst you have a 60% chance of losing ground, YOLO, you also have a 40% chance of making it up, vs a 100% of going nowhere with JPK!

I know you're a numbers man Kiwi, but are you much of a gambling man??  8)

quinny88

Quote from: GCSkiwi on July 28, 2014, 03:10:05 PM
Quote from: quinny88 on July 28, 2014, 01:43:24 PM
Considering you're 3rd I would be looking at the teams in front of you.
The guy coming 1st has a handy lead and has neither of JPK or Priddis so a good chance to get a leg up there.
2nd place has JPK but no Priddis. Go with Priddis.. Go for gold ;)

I completely accept this logic IF you're comparing two players who are relatively equal. I feel as though this isn't the case with JPK and Priddis - Priddis in great form recently but history tells you he's not a 120 average player. JPK has the history of posting that sort of an average, has had a bad run recently against tough teams. Both have pretty soft draws from this point, Priddis perhaps slightly harder (confident adelaide, something to prove pies, anything could happen essendon, greatly improved shut down dees, outside finals chance suns) than JPK (anything could happen essendon, slumping port, st kildhahahaha, western "our old VFL team is good" bulldogs and "I've run out of descriptions for mediocre" tigers)

Only about 5ppg difference so far and with 5 games to go Priddis could out score him in the last 5.
JPK the safer option but if ya going for the overall win and chasing down 300 points to catch the leader you really need a unique and hope for the best

H1bb3i2d

However I will add (quite contradictory(is that a word?(it's not underlined in red!))) that I think JPK will outscore Priddis, but I'm not sure what your other POD's are ando. Do you like a punt??

GCSkiwi

Quote from: H1bb3i2d on July 28, 2014, 03:21:40 PM
At this stage and in this position, the 'Go for Gold' isn't about numbers. It's the fact that if you get the same player, you'll stay behind. If you get a POD, you then have a chance to make the ground up. Sure JPK may be say 60% more likely to score better, so you'd say he's the better option, but he'll get you nowhere on 2nd. With Priddis, whilst you have a 60% chance of losing ground, YOLO, you also have a 40% chance of making it up, vs a 100% of going nowhere with JPK!

I know you're a numbers man Kiwi, but are you much of a gambling man??  8)

Yep fair enough but #1 has neither Priddis nor JPK as quinny posted above, #2 has JPK, and if you think JPK will outscore Priddis then how is putting Priddis against JPK a good plan? Neutralise JPK and back the other PODs to deal with #2, and have JPK as the better weapon against #1, no?

And yes, I am a betting man, and I find quite often the bookies have the odds right and the big risk for big reward is more often than not the losing punt :P Obviously you have to back the situation but I'm gonna go ahead and say over the next 5 rounds JPK will outscore Priddis... Would you really place a $50,000 wager that Priddis out does JPK?

Quote from: quinny88 on July 28, 2014, 03:22:55 PM
Only about 5ppg difference so far and with 5 games to go Priddis could out score him in the last 5.
JPK the safer option but if ya going for the overall win and chasing down 300 points to catch the leader you really need a unique and hope for the best

[edit] whoops better actually respond - yeah again I get the point but I don't think that's a wise call, backing someone just because they're unique when most signs point to them probably doing worse...

Hippo

#12
C Money doesn't have JPK so all this "Get Priddis to be dif" doesn't matter as getting JPK IS a POD to the bloke you want to catch. He's the one you need to reel in and if JPK scores more than Priddis then aren't you getting closer with him.

Your only 50pts behind 2nd so wouldn't worry about him having JPK as your other players should get that done - if indeed they are good enough and will have to be to get the job done in the end. Priddis or JPK won't be the ones that win it for you

But hey take a risk don't get either, certainly help my cause ;)

Hippo

Quote from: GCSkiwi on July 28, 2014, 03:36:20 PM
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on July 28, 2014, 03:21:40 PM
At this stage and in this position, the 'Go for Gold' isn't about numbers. It's the fact that if you get the same player, you'll stay behind. If you get a POD, you then have a chance to make the ground up. Sure JPK may be say 60% more likely to score better, so you'd say he's the better option, but he'll get you nowhere on 2nd. With Priddis, whilst you have a 60% chance of losing ground, YOLO, you also have a 40% chance of making it up, vs a 100% of going nowhere with JPK!

I know you're a numbers man Kiwi, but are you much of a gambling man??  8)

Yep fair enough but #1 has neither Priddis nor JPK as quinny posted above, #2 has JPK, and if you think JPK will outscore Priddis then how is putting Priddis against JPK a good plan? Neutralise JPK and back the other PODs to deal with #2, and have JPK as the better weapon against #1, no?

And yes, I am a betting man, and I find quite often the bookies have the odds right and the big risk for big reward is more often than not the losing punt :P Obviously you have to back the situation but I'm gonna go ahead and say over the next 5 rounds JPK will outscore Priddis... Would you really place a $50,000 wager that Priddis out does JPK?

Quote from: quinny88 on July 28, 2014, 03:22:55 PM
Only about 5ppg difference so far and with 5 games to go Priddis could out score him in the last 5.
JPK the safer option but if ya going for the overall win and chasing down 300 points to catch the leader you really need a unique and hope for the best

[edit] whoops better actually respond - yeah again I get the point but I don't think that's a wise call, backing someone just because they're unique when most signs point to them probably doing worse...
well said!! sometimes the obv choice is the best choice

RaisyDaisy

I had to make this same choice 3 weeks ago to replace Ablett and I went with Priddis

He is a POD and is averaging 123 over the past 10 games. JPK is averaging 121 over the same time, so either way I cant see a wrong decision.

Go with your gut