Too conservative?

[underdog]

I'm looking at trading Gablett to JPK (held off for a week for jpk to hopefully drop with his high BE). Only other upgrade for finals was going to be Suckling - obvious trade is to Mitchell. Would complete my team, having cover through mid, ruck and fwd through SMartin (via dpp stuff).

I've got 5 trades left, and $100k in the bank. Going for league win, with top 4 already secured.

My question is, I'm thinking of holding off these trades for another week or so. Might cost me a bit more to upgrade suckling to Mitchell, jpk unlikely to go up though.

Reason for my thinking is leaving the trades til later just in case jpk or Mitch get injured/rested. Then instead of having to use another trade to field someone for finals, I can trade someone in whose playing.

Am I being stupid conservative, and 3 trades (with $150k odd) is enough to cover through last round and finals?

Or is there something in holding fire?

[RaisyDaisy]

I can understand where you are coming from, but it probably is a bit too conservative

I just don't see the point in having 700k sitting on your bench doing nothing.

Having a Top 4 spot stitched up does make the idea logical, but 3 trades will be more than enough

[fever]

with top 4 sewn up it is perfectly logical, and i think you'd be foolish not to wait.

[Ringo]

Yea sitting Top 4 you can afford to hold especially with Top 4 secured. Also gives you the opportunity to see both Mitchell and JPK how they perform. 

[underdog]

Thanks for your comments guys.

I think I'm sold on waiting on the ablett trade - nothing to lose by holding off. Jpk still has a BE of about 140 odd, and can make ablett any form midfielder come finals.

The Mitchell one is a bit more interesting because it will cost me money the longer I leave it. I have the 100k there, so can still trade him in when he goes up, but means I won't have that money to maximise any other finals trades.

Potentially planning to luxury trade mcevoy or sandilands (if he keeps pumping out 90s only) to Jacobs if he keeps dominating.

Trade Mitch in now to maximise value, or hold off to ensure its a safe trade?

[Ringo]

Underdog I was sold on Mitchell myself until I seen he plays Freo and Collingwood in the finals where no doubt he will be tagged.  Up to you whether you get him im though.

[underdog]

You raise a good point Ringo about the hawks draw for finals. Freo probably the only real concern with Crowley doing a number on him before, but I think given he hasn't had the year he did last year, that there might be people tagged before he is. Eg. clubs have gone to hill and smith to stops the hawks run before they try to stop Mitchell.

For me, the question is, is he an upgrade for suckling worth doing. if so, now is probably the time.

Unless there is another backman I should look at getting?

Current:
Swallow, mcveigh, Bartel, Simpson, m Johnson, suckling - bews, jones.

[Holz]

You do have things to lose by holding, by keeping ablett you are comiting to use a trade in the future. You only get 2 trades a week.

Say you have 2 big injuries in a week that you need to win, ideally you want to use 3 trades as you have ablett so you need to keep 1 guy. So if your holding for the reason that jpk gets injured or rested the odds of that are lower than 2 out of 22 players getting injured.

[underdog]

You make a good point holz.

I missed the lockout for gaj this arvo, but will make the jpk trade next week to avoid that scenario in the first week of finals.

Think I'm set now, thanks all for the comments, and happy supercoaching!