LaHug's Captains 2014 - Round 18 - Split Round Part 2

[LaHug]

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In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, their last 3 at this ground, and the top players in their position against this week's opponent. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If you have any requests, pommyadam will be taking them for you.

This is the second half of the split round so it's time to evaluate whether or not you want to loophole your VC or go for a different captain.

VCs
The following are the VC scores that I would definitely take no matter what:
Jarrad Waite (135), Nick Riewoldt (164), Rhys Stanley (135), Steve Johnson (145), Joel Selwood (140), Jake Carlisle (165)

The following are the VC scores that I would probably take unless I needed something special to win a league game or climb the rankings:
Dom Tyson (130), Jackson Macrae (129), Patrick Ryder (127)

Of course, if you don't have Rocky, take anything 120+. If you don't have Kennedy either, take anything 110+. This is not a good round for captains.

The facts:

Priddis
Last 3: 83, 118, 109 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 91, 98, 97 (95 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 118, 109, 108 (112 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Richmond: 132, 137, 111 (127 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 100, 110, 138 (116 avg)
Last 3 against WCE: 70, 110, 82 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 70, 84, 101 (85 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. WCE: 105, 125, 125 (118 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 137, 122, 172 (144 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 157, 86, 93 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 122, 75, 153 (117 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Gold Coast: 168, 111, 135 (138 avg)

S. Martin
Last 3: 113, 97, 113 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 44, 67, 69 (60 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 113, 100, 60 (91 avg)
Last 3 rucks vs. Gold Coast: 97, 81, 94 (91 avg)

Kennedy
Last 3: 130, 96, 136 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 139, 93, 121 (118 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 107, 103, 83 (98 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Hawthorn: 132, 131, 157 (140 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 84, 111, 128 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 101, 153, 88 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 128, 106, 100 (111 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Adelaide: 103, 109, 110 (107 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 98, 85, 104 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 107, 80, 132 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 98, 104, 88 (97 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Adelaide: 103, 109, 110 (107 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 109, 99, 147 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 107, 105, 135 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 147, 115 (124 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Adelaide: 103, 109, 110 (107 avg)

Sloane
Last 3: 109, 143, 102 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 104, 82, 75 (87 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 74, 82, 87 (81 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Collingwood: 150, 116, 108 (125 avg)

The thoughts:

Priddis
Priddis's great post-bye form game to a screeching halt last round and his form against the Tigers is far from impressive. What he does have going for him is his form at home which has been great this year. Additionally, the Tigers are on a three game winning streak yet are still giving up good scores to top mids (Priddis is your best bet to lead his team). Prediction - 110

Cotchin
5 straight tons for Cotch but the streak might be coming to an end. Poor against the Eagles and poor in Perth, Cotch is going to need some goals and play a Luke Parker (125) or Stephen Hill (145) type game to score well. Always a chance to keep the streak going but I reckon he falls short. Prediction - 90

Rockliff
WOWOWEE! If you didn't pick the right VC last week, this is your man! His form speaks for itself and, if you forget about Full Forward Rocky from last year, his record against the Suns is also great. The Suns are leaking some big scores now too. Here's the exciting stat though: Rocky has had two games after a week or more off so far this season. The first time was against the Suns for a massive 157! The second time was against the Blues for an equally massive 153! Is there another 150+ on the horizon?! Prediction - 140

S. Martin
Probably the best fantasy ruck in the comp right now, Martin is killing it as a solo ruckman. Not much to gather from past numbers other than the fact that he's 2 for 2 at home this season. Looking at opposition rucks vs. the Suns gives some interesting things though. Minson was on 72 at half time last round before completely dying off, something I wouldn't expect an in form and fit Martin to do. Witts, hardly a top scoring ruck, was responsible for that 81 and Ceglar got his season high of 94 against them. It seems to me that rucks do quite well against the Suns so expect something very solid. Prediction - 115

Kennedy
Kennedy's having an amazing fantasy season (and real footy season but do we care about that?) so far. The Hawks are his favourite team to play not named the Giants and he loves to score big against them. The Hawks are also giving up big scores to top mids, something that Kennedy is more than likely to be. His form at the G is poor but I don't think that's enough to slow JPK down against his old side. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
A massive loss last week caused Pendles to drop below 100 for the first time since round 7. Pendles definitely knows how to score big against the Crows and loves the MCG so that, with his consistency, should mean big things. However, the Crows are super stingy right now and have only given up 7 tons in the last 3 weeks. Of those tons, the highest is 110. I can't see any big scores from Pies this week. Prediction - 105

Beams
Way out of form and against the stingy Crows... Would be a good person to trade out of your team if you somehow have the luxury trades that nobody else does. Prediction - 85

Sidebottom
Less impressive in losses but still a solid scorer and definitely can go massive if the Pies win. The great thing is that he has solid form against the Crows and is awesome at the G. The Crows are stingy but I reckon Sidebottom gets the top score against them. Prediction - 110

Sloane
Sloane's in solid form and scored a 104 against the Pies earlier this year. If you look at the MCG stats, you could easily dismiss it by saying only one has been this year and he's having a much better year than he's had before. Of course, this is true, but you're missing what this stat is really saying... Sloane is much worse away from home than in Adelaide. He's 8 from 9 at Adelaide Oval this year but only 3 from 7 away from there. Not looking great. Prediction - 95

The verdict:

1.   Rockliff (140)
2.   Kennedy (120)
3.   S. Martin (115)
4.   Priddis (110)
5.   Sidebottom (110)


Requests by pommyadam:

[pommyadam]

Harley Bennell
Last 3: 55, 97, 59 (average 70)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 91, 116, 69 (average 92)
Last 3 at Gabba: 91, 69, 71 (average 77)
Mids vs Brisbane: 106, 105, 118. Last 3 average of 113, last 5 average of 118. The easiest team to score on have suddenly become a LOT more miserly. Giving out around 3 or 4 tons per game.
Prediction: Geez, this is scraping the barrel. In his favour though, it's been a poor game followed by a good one since his bye, so maybe in for a good score - 95

Pearce Hanley
Last 3: 67, 95, 133 (average 98)
Last 3 vs Gold Coast: 118, 125, 108 (average 117)
Last 3 at Gabba: 67, 133, 113 (average 104)
Defs vs GoldCoast: 92, 73, 122. Last 3 average of 96, last 5 average of 96, and a season average of 99. Give up big scores to mids, and 4 tons per game.
Prediction: I've classified him as a DEF, which naturally leads to lower scores. He also can't shake a tag, so if he gets one, then oh boy. But GC don't normally tag, and this should be a decent performance - 110 (60s if tagged though)

Lance Franklin
Last 3: 114, 78, 120 (average 104)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 106
Last 3 at MCG: 98, 41, 94 (average 78)
FWDs vs Hawthorn: 132, 101, 68. Last 3 average of 100, last 5 average of 102, season average of 98. Give up around 4-5 tons per game recently too.
Prediction: Poor record at MCG has me looking elsewhere. In form, and good in his sole game vs Hawthorn, but that MCG record is poor (only 2 tons since the start of 2013) - 85

Dion Prestia
Last 3: 81, 77, 84 (average 81)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 102, 76, 87 (average 88)
Last 3 at Gabba: 76, 87, 52 (average 72)
Mids vs Brisbane: 106, 105, 118. Last 3 average of 113, last 5 average of 118. The easiest team to score on have suddenly become a LOT more miserly. Giving out around 3 or 4 tons per game.
Prediction: You're bolder than me. Doesn't do that well in Q-clash, but hasn't had any recent form against the opponent (2 of his last 3 Gabba games are 2012), but still - 90


List Of Requests:
Pearce Hanley - 110 (under 70 if tagged)
Harley Bennell - 95
Dion Prestia - 90
Lance Franklin - 85

[pommyadam]

was in 2 minds about whether to put my VC on Treloar or Barlow, neither worked - and didn't even consider Jelwood as an option
I'm going with Rocky

also a bold call about Sidey being the top Pie scorer, but fair play if the analysis leads to that

[Nige]

I tried to loophole in BXVs (Sportal) last week and only got 101 from Boomer.

Can I get some history/stats on Harley Bennell (Treloar and Heppell played last week, not sure why I didn't pick either of them as VC. :P ::)) who is captain of the mighty Liverpool Rams this week?

[fidou]

Season on the line in my cash comp lose and Im out of the eight. Loopholed Barlow and 97 isn't good enough. Haven't got Rocky and cannot get him this week. Choices are - Priddis, Pendles, Cothin, Beams and never really thought of S Martin but you have him.

Which one?

[kilbluff1985]

Season on the line in my cash comp lose and Im out of the eight. Loopholed Barlow and 97 isn't good enough. Haven't got Rocky and cannot get him this week. Choices are - Priddis, Pendles, Cothin, Beams and never really thought of S Martin but you have him.

Which one?

Think i'd go Priddis

[strikes91]

The Irishman Pearce Hanley thanks!

[LaHug]

Season on the line in my cash comp lose and Im out of the eight. Loopholed Barlow and 97 isn't good enough. Haven't got Rocky and cannot get him this week. Choices are - Priddis, Pendles, Cothin, Beams and never really thought of S Martin but you have him.

Which one?

Think i'd go Priddis

I'd also go Priddis for safety. Although I think Martin will score more, he's also a massive risk whereas Priddis is safer.

[Chelskiman]

I straight up captained SJ last week.  Rocky was my second choice though.

[Capper]

am seriously thinking about Buddy this weekend. Even if Gibson does play

[tbagrocks]

I'm a genius ;)  took the VC off Johnson at the last hurdle and put it on Goldstud ::)

So, have it on Rockliff, cant trust any Collingwood players

[ADEZ]

Thoughts on Prestia? Grasping at captain options this week :-\
Cheers

[Ricochet]

AF Rocky
SB Rocky
RDT taking SJs VC

[timmyparso]

I straight up captained SJ last week.  Rocky was my second choice though.

Same, only because i had no one to use as the Captain loop from a team in the second week. Turned out well in the end.

[Jroo]

I had VC in a Stevie J, but stupid up my loophole in RDT, so don't think I can do it there, so will have to go with Rocky.
I can loophole Stevie in AF, though.