Ablett & Swan 2010 Average's

[chatters24]

I was just thinking for all of you who are looking at getting either Ablett or Swan, or maybe even both, what sort of averages you are expecting of them for this up coming season? With their lofty price tags of $522,000 and $523,500 respectively, are you bringing them into your team because you are hopeful/expecting them to average around the 115-120 mark again this year? What if they average only 105-110? Or even 100-105? Does this still represent good value for money?

Here are some averages of the past 4 years according to FanFooty for each player:

Ablett:
2006: 77.0
2007: 98.5
2008: 111.7
2009: 118.7

Swan:
2006: 101.9
2007: 101.5
2008: 102.5
2009: 119.1

As you can can see Abletts figures have been rising rapidly, but is the trend going to continue or is his average going to come back down to the 110 mark? Swan on the other hand has been averaging 101-102 for a number of years and 2009 seem's to be a bit of an anomoly, or was it??

In my own opinion I think that if both Swan and Ablett maintain their averages of last year then they may represent value, however if they aveage under 110 then I don't think you are getting as much value for your $520,000 odd that you paid for them.

I want this thread to be a little different to all the other treads about Ablett and Swan as I want to hear more about what they actually expect from these two this year rather than just hearing theat they're "guns". I'm looking forward to see what peoples thoughts are, because I've been hearing a lot of "why wouldn't you have Swan or Ablett in your team??" and I just want to know what you expect of them average wise for 2010?

[ossie85]

I expect both oof them to average between 100 and 110. Swan is a dream team star, and Ablett the freak.

I disagree though that you are not getting value for money if they drop in average by 10 or so, because you still will be making one of them captain. So you are practically buying two players with one transaction. Yes, I know oppurtunity costs exists with other players - say Bartel for example - but you should back them if you want them.

[chatters24]

Yeh that's true ossie. I think the thing that makes Swan and Ablett so attractive to so many people, particularly Ablett is that he can rip out scores of 140-150+ on quite a few occasions during the season.

[sntran23]

Also, although Swan and Ablett's averages may fall (and I'm not agreeing that they will or won't), the fact is that an average of 110 odd is very good for a captain.

Value for money? I believe that these two are almost automatic captains in the teams that they are selected in, and if they score 110 consistently, they're more than worth their price.

[chatters24]

Say if either Swan or Ablett were to average 110 each week, wouldn't it maybe be worth looking at someone else worth about $450-$480k who is a good chance of also averaging that during 2010?

[ossie85]

No, not mathematically anyway chatters24.

Like who Bartel? Montagna? Boyd? Why are they any more likely to maintain their averages.

[chatters24]

Why not mathematially ossie? Montagna averaged 115 last year and there were a host of players that averaged 100-110 that would step up and average 110 this year such as Bartel, Boyd, Pendlebury, Gibbs and Selwood just to name a few. If Ablett and Swan both averaged 110 this year I believe they would definetly be back with the pack and last years averages would show that.
I'm just not too sure how this isn't mathematically possible ossie??

[ossie85]

First of all, you're making a lot of assumptions - the biggest of which are that Ablett and Swan will fall, and that others will maintain or increase their average.

Not saying it is mathematically impossible, I'm saying that general statistics say it isn't as likely.

You want to get into pure statistics?

We will compare Ablett and Bartel. My biggest assumption is that the scores are normally distributed.

Ablett averaged 119, with a standard deviation of 26
Bartel averaged 109, with a standard deviation of 23

On that, the chances that Ablett will average 110 or more is 63%
And the chances that Bartel will average 110 is 49%

The chances that they average over 120? Well, for Ablett is 48% and for Bartel it is 33%

So, of course it is mathematically possible, but the odds go with Ablett.

Real life is different obviously, My point is, that the logic that other players are more likely to be better value, isn't right with just the logic 'he might get better and they might get worse'.

[eaglesman]

this is a sensational thread so far keep it up. I have got both ablett and swan atm

[chatters24]

I love ya work ossie, very nice.
DT is full of assumption's and speculation.
I like your stat's on both Ablett and Bartel, however they are limited to last year only. I think that if you look at both Ablett's and Swan's average's over the past 4 season as I have listed originally I think that the two are vastly different.
When looking at Swan's averages for the past 4 years, his 2009 average looks nothing more than an anomoly. Or maybe some would say that it is him coming of age in a DT sense?
As for Ablett when you analyse his stats it is much harder to judge but it wouldn't be too silly to suggest that he could increase his average again this year, however in a realistic sense that would be an enormous effort, but could he?
Has any player in the comp every managed to string two seasons in a row with an average of around the 120 mark??

[valkorum]

Has any player in the comp every managed to string two seasons in a row with an average of around the 120 mark??

I think the question is has any player every managed to average 120 in a season apart from last year with swanny and ablett.

[Justin Bieber]

Great analysis ossie.

i hope they average between 90 - 100 first couple of rounds so i can upgrade my rookies to them half way through the year ;D.

[Blueboys]

OMG! this is the biggest waste of a topic EVER!!!!

Shame on you for making me read the first few lines!  >:(

[Cicjose]

this is a sensational thread so far keep it up. I have got both ablett and swan atm

Same here  :)

[chatters24]

OMG! this is the biggest waste of a topic EVER!!!!

Shame on you for making me read the first few lines!  >:(

Sorry blue boys, but I thought I made the subject pretty self explanitory. There were other Ablett and Swan topics but I didn't think any were based around stats and were more based about how much of a gun they are and how you needed them and blah blah. I thought I'd start something up which was a little more stats based and that had a little more thought behind it.

Valkorum that is probably true. I haven't done the research to actually say it's true for sure but the numbers that Swan and Ablett were pulling during 2010 had never been seen before. Were Ablett's and Swan's 2010 scores a "flash in the pan" or are they actually sustainable? Going on past year's it may be more sustainable for Ablett but not as much for Swan.