LaHug's Captains 2014 - Round 18 - Split Round Part 1

[LaHug]

If you really appreciate my work, please donate to a worthy cause: http://vic.cancercouncilfundraising.org.au/WilliamHuggett

Thanks heaps to pommyadam for taking the last two weeks!

In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, their last 3 at this ground, and the top players in their position against this week's opponent. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If you have any requests, pommyadam will be taking them for you.

We have a partial lockout this week for the split round which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

I'm only looking at this week's options for the meantime so, if you're not wanting to loophole, I recommend waiting until next week to use the C on Tom Rockliff who, after a quick glance, is going to DOMINATE.

How it works:

1.   Select a player from this weekend as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game (Rockliff is your best bet) in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

The facts:

Harvey
Last 3: 109, 101, 79 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 95, 71, 68 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 101, 119, 144 (121 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Carlton: 130, 94, 147 (124 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 89, 134, 96 (106 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 56, 111, 109 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 134, 134, 56 (108 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. St Kilda: 124, 87, 138 (116 avg)

Fyfe
Last 3: 109, 86, 125 (107 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 105, 77, 80 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 65, 64, 101 (77 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. St Kilda: 124, 87, 138 (116 avg)

Ward
Last 3: 125, 67, 92 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 107, 104, 64 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Showground: 67, 127, 108 (101 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Geelong: 94, 119, 152 (122 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 130, 131, 96 (119 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 101, 150 (126 avg)
Last 3 at Showground: 101 (101 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. GWS: 110, 143, 136 (130 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 121, 81, 133 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 132, 62 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Showground: 132 (132 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. GWS: 110, 143, 136 (130 avg)

Liberatore
Last 3: 101, 119, 57 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 110, 124, 101 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 57, 126, 112 (98 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Essendon: 109, 97, 133 (113 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 109, 53, 125 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 94, 132, 115 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 125, 94, 107 (109 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Essendon: 109, 97, 133 (113 avg)

Macrae
Last 3: 168, 69, 71 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 88 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 71, 117, 139 (109 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Essendon: 109, 97, 133 (113 avg)

Heppell
Last 3: 83, 74, 152 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 98, 119, 80 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 152, 102, 126 (127 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Bulldogs: 116, 131, 113 (120 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 150, 83, 101 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 68, 107, 111 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 101, 103, 85 (96 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Bulldogs: 116, 131, 113 (120 avg)

Goddard
Last 3: 87, 86, 147 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 105, 79, 120 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 86, 147, 117 (117 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Bulldogs: 116, 131, 113 (120 avg)

The thoughts:

Harvey
The Blues are giving up heaps in losses (7 tons last week and 4 against the Pies). Boomer doesn't have a good record against the Blues but is killing it at Etihad of late. Should be solid. Prediction - 105

Barlow
Firstly, I wouldn't take anything from that 56 as it was when Freo sent their B team to lie down against the Saints in round 23. Before that, Barlow has 5 straight tons against the Saints and is awesome at Etihad. The Saints are giving up solid scores and Freo is likely to smash them. Barlow was disappointing last week though but expect a bounce back. Prediction - 110

Fyfe
Fyfe's in decent form but awful against the Saints and at Etihad. I wouldn't touch him... Prediction - 85

Ward
Good score last week but a bit up and down this season. He's been solid against the Cats since becoming a Giant and is usually, but not always, good at home. It might be ugly if the Cats dominate so for that reason I'd steer clear. Prediction - 95

Johnson
Two 130s in a row against younger, weaker teams and now he comes up against another. GWS are giving up big top scores and Johnson will do what it takes to nab one. Prediction - 130

Selwood
A solid score last week and great against the Giants when they played in Sydney last year. The Giants are only giving up a few good scores each week but, with decent form behind him and a potential drubbing, I'd expect Joel to take one. Prediction - 110

Liberatore
Libba's had a pretty awesome last 3 years against the Bombers and now has a couple of tons in a row after his patch of poor form. However, Essendon are killing it right now so I'd be very wary of any Bulldog this week. Prediction - 100

Boyd
Boyd's another one that has a solid record against the Bombers but, again, their form is so good that I fear the Dogs might not even get any tons at all. Prediction - 100

Macrae
Etihad is where he's been performing his best and last week's score was great. Still, there are way better options around and I wouldn't be surprised if he completely disappeared against a firing Bombers side. Prediction - 80

Heppell
Beaten by a tag two weeks in a row and will surely cop Picken or Wallis this week. Luckily, they haven't been amazing in recent weeks so Hepp could still be ok. If he's let free, he'll be great (particularly with his record at Etihad) but it's just too much risk until he proves he can break a tag. Prediction - 100

Stanton
Last week, I said that whoever avoided the Macaffer tag out of he and Heppell would do well. Boy did Stanton step up and do just that! However, he was well beaten by Picken earlier this year and could cop him again. Could be big if untagged (VC anyone?) but I wouldn't count on it. Prediction - 95

Goddard
A couple of poors ones in a row before having a week off last week makes Goddard's form questionable. He's pretty good against the Dogs over his career with a 100 average and 7 of his last 10 are tons (with most of them very good). Surely at least one Bomber does well but it's really hard to know which one. Prediction - 100

The verdict:

1.   Johnson (130)
2.   Barlow (110)
3.   Selwood (110)
4.   Boak (110)


Note: I'm leaving it as a top 3 and leaving the poll locked, for now, as I wait for some requests. I couldn't find many good scores from regular favourites so maybe you guys can spot a diamond in the rough!?

Requests by pommyadam:

Adam Treloar (by pommyadam)
Last 3: 109, 97, 91 (average 99)
Last 3 against Geelong: 101, 74 (average 88)
Last 3 at Showground: 109, 91, 130 (average 110)
Mids vs Geelong: 94, 119, 152. Last 3 average of 122, last 5 average of 123. Every score over 90, and half of them over 120.
Prediction: Only 2 scores under 115 at home this season, but they're his most recent two. Will still have to get through a groin test in order to play. Looks pretty consistent, and should be in for an okay score, but injury.... - 105

Travis Boak
Last 3: 132, 77, 110 (average 106)
Last 3 against Dees: 96, 102, 81 (average 93)
Last 3 at Adelaide Oval: 77, 110, 117 (average 101)
Mids vs Dees: 130, 134, 125. Last 3 average of 130, last 5 average of 135. 14/16 scores over 110.
Prediction: Probably the most likely Port mid, but still can't get too inspired by him. In reasonable form though, but probably an okay loophole POD - 110

[LaHug]

Important things from the above:

I'm only looking at this week's options for the meantime so, if you're not wanting to loophole, I recommend waiting until next week to use the C on Tom Rockliff who, after a quick glance, is going to DOMINATE.

Note: I'm leaving it as a top 3 and leaving the poll locked, for now, as I wait for some requests. I couldn't find many good scores from regular favourites so maybe you guys can spot a diamond in the rough!?

[kilbluff1985]

hey lahug any idea why GWS are leaking so many points lately? i mean before the last month they were premo killers

[LaHug]

hey lahug any idea why GWS are leaking so many points lately? i mean before the last month they were premo killers

I'd guess a combination of fatigue and their opponents. In the last three weeks, they've played two top 4 sides and an Adelaide side doing whatever it takes to make the finals. Not good opponents to be facing if you're a young, tiring team.

The run home doesn't look much better with Geelong (top 4), Richmond (in form and hungry), North (pushing for home final), Collingwood (fighting for the 8) to come.

[pommyadam]

honestly forgotten all about this

fighting for the 8) = always a good thing
I personally couldn't care less about a loophole, maybe Barlow, but you're not dislodging Rocky (unless he belts out 135+)

[pommyadam]

REQUESTS:

Adam Treloar (by pommyadam)
Last 3: 109, 97, 91 (average 99)
Last 3 against Geelong: 101, 74 (average 88)
Last 3 at Showground: 109, 91, 130 (average 110)
Mids vs Geelong: 94, 119, 152. Last 3 average of 122, last 5 average of 123. Every score over 90, and half of them over 120.
Prediction: Only 2 scores under 115 at home this season, but they're his most recent two. Will still have to get through a groin test in order to play. Looks pretty consistent, and should be in for an okay score, but injury.... - 105

Travis Boak
Last 3: 132, 77, 110 (average 106)
Last 3 against Dees: 96, 102, 81 (average 93)
Last 3 at Adelaide Oval: 77, 110, 117 (average 101)
Mids vs Dees: 130, 134, 125. Last 3 average of 130, last 5 average of 135. 14/16 scores over 110.
Prediction: Probably the most likely Port mid, but still can't get too inspired by him. In reasonable form though, but probably an okay loophole POD - 110

David Zaharakis (by powersuperkents)
Last 3: 98, 118, 103 (average 106)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 98, 28*, 105, 103 (average 77 subbed, 102 unsubbed)
Last 3 at Etihad: 103, 72, 132 (average 102)
Mids vs Bulldogs: 116, 131, 113. Last 3 average of 120, last 5 average of 120, and a season average of 118. 13/16 leading mids have made 110 or more. They give up just under 4 tons per game (so if he's not top mid scorer, then yeah)
Prediction: My stats have been because I use RDT positions (ie without changes) - but a last 5 average of 113 to forwards (which he is under AF new positions) is a positive sign. Shouldn't grab the tag (with Stanton and Dyson) and does well against the WB side. - 105

Matthew Boyd
ALREADY LISTED

Lachie Neale
Last 3: 93, 123, 88 (average 101)
Last 3 against StKilda: 62, 17 (average 40)
Last 3 at Etihad: 82, 23, 62 (average 56)
Mids vs StKilda: 124, 87, 138. Last 3 average of 116, last 5 average of 120, and a season average of 124. 5 tons per game on average.
Prediction: I hope this isn't for DT.... HORRIBLE history, but probably improved since Morabito has locked up a nice green vest. Still, you're braver than me - 85

Shane Mumford
Last 3: 75, 105, 62 (average 81)
Last 3 against Geelong: 70, 53, 105 (average 76)
Last 3 at Showground: 105, 139, 88 (average 111)
Rucks vs Geelong: 41, 83, 102. Last 3 average of 75, last 5 average of 70, season average of 73. NOTE ruckman are skewed because some teams run with 2 of them.
Prediction: Only 6 scores over 80 for ruckman against geelong this season. it's not going to be pretty. Mumford's history against them is poor, and isn't in the ripper form of earlier in the season. I'd avoid - 85

Levi Greenwood
Last 3: 98, 131, 77 (average 102)
Last 3 vs Carlton: 46, 51, 41 (average 46)
Last 3 at Etihad: 131, 109, 91 (average 110)
Mids vs Carlton: 130, 94, 147. Last 3 average of 124, last 5 average of 122, and a season average of 117.
Prediction: Hmm... POOR history against Carlton (you take what you want with 2012 performances though). In reasonable form and does well at Etihad, but Carlton are crappy to score on - 105


List of requests:
Travis Boak - 110
David Zaharakis - 105
Adam Treloar - 105
Levi Greenwood - 105
Lachie Neale - 85
Shane Mumford - 85

[LaHug]

I personally couldn't care less about a loophole, maybe Barlow, but you're not dislodging Rocky (unless he belts out 135+)

Yeah, this will be a dull week for fantasy. I'm gonna go Stevie J and just hope he somehow pulls out one of those 150s

[RookieDTer]

Stevie J is a flattrack bully, think he is the clear #1 (VC) this week.

Similarly, GCFC don't tag and leak one of the (or is it the?) highest scores to midfielders in the competition.... Rockliff is a clear # 1 (C) next week.

Easiest week for captaining/vice captaining for me ever. Side note, I am trading in ROckliff this week.

[jvalles69]

I'm considering Bartell to chop up as a POD VC.  Only problem I have at this stage is the fact none of my bench from next week are not playing?!?  Can't believe I'm saying this but I need Gary Rohan to be omitted!  :o

[LaHug]

Stevie J is a flattrack bully, think he is the clear #1 (VC) this week.

Similarly, GCFC don't tag and leak one of the (or is it the?) highest scores to midfielders in the competition.... Rockliff is a clear # 1 (C) next week.

Easiest week for captaining/vice captaining for me ever. Side note, I am trading in ROckliff this week.

Pretty spot on summary we have here.

[Flame]

I personally couldn't care less about a loophole, maybe Barlow, but you're not dislodging Rocky (unless he belts out 135+)

Yeah, this will be a dull week for fantasy. I'm gonna go Stevie J and just hope he somehow pulls out one of those 150s

Great work Huggy Bear- SJ for me too!

[LaHug]

Alrighty guys, I've unlocked the voting. Clearly there just aren't many good options...

[Nige]

Looking at Boomer vs Heppell vs Treloar.

Gone with Heppell with no confidence after reading the thread this week.

[pommyadam]

Stevie J is a flattrack bully, think he is the clear #1 (VC) this week.

Similarly, GCFC don't tag and leak one of the (or is it the?) highest scores to midfielders in the competition.... Rockliff is a clear # 1 (C) next week.

Easiest week for captaining/vice captaining for me ever. Side note, I am trading in ROckliff this week.

Pretty spot on summary we have here.

GC stats:
they:
- give up the highest scores to mids in recent weeks (but could've said that about Geelong, who held the Dees tonless)
- don't tag
- their best opposition mid (Rocky) has a favourable history (vs GC, at Gabba, and last 3)

I'll be in 2 minds if my VC knocks out a 125 though

[LaHug]

Stevie J is a flattrack bully, think he is the clear #1 (VC) this week.

Similarly, GCFC don't tag and leak one of the (or is it the?) highest scores to midfielders in the competition.... Rockliff is a clear # 1 (C) next week.

Easiest week for captaining/vice captaining for me ever. Side note, I am trading in ROckliff this week.

Pretty spot on summary we have here.

GC stats:
they:
- give up the highest scores to mids in recent weeks (but could've said that about Geelong, who held the Dees tonless)
- don't tag
- their best opposition mid (Rocky) has a favourable history (vs GC, at Gabba, and last 3)

I'll be in 2 minds if my VC knocks out a 125 though

I certainly won't take anything under 130 unless I hear rumours of Rocky injury/illness and I probably won't take under 135ish either.