LaHug's Captains 2014 - Round 17 - No GAJ. No Rocky. No problem!

[LaHug]

If you really appreciate my work, please donate to a worthy cause: http://vic.cancercouncilfundraising.org.au/WilliamHuggett

Thanks heaps to pommyadam for taking the last two weeks!

In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, their last 3 at this ground, and the top players in their position against this week's opponent. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If you have any requests, pommyadam will be taking them for you.

The facts:

Sloane
Last 3: 143, 102, 89 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 95, 75, 56 (75 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 102, 106, 113 (107 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Hawthorn: 131, 157, 106 (131 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 131, 96, 103 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 156, 163, 171 (163 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 139, 69 (111 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Melbourne: 134, 125, 127 (129 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 81, 133, 91 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 126, 178, 110 (138 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 82, 58, 116 (85 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Melbourne: 134, 125, 127 (129 avg)

Greenwood
Last 3: 131, 77, 127 (112 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 53, 28, 39 (40 avg)
Last 3 at Hobart: N/A
Last 3 mids vs. St Kilda: 110, 138, 109 (119 avg)

Harvey
Last 3: 101, 79, 97 (92 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 107, 58, 47 (71 avg)
Last 3 at Hobart: 102, 110 (106 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. St Kilda: 110, 138, 109 (119 avg)

Liberatore
Last 3: 119, 57, 88 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 111, 78, 102 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Cazaly: N/A
Last 3 mids vs. Gold Coast: 111, 135, 103 (116 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 53, 125, 92 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 112, 96, 128 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Cazaly: N/A
Last 3 mids vs. Gold Coast: 111, 135, 103 (116 avg)

Priddis
Last 3: 118, 109, 101 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 80, 85, 113 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 80, 113, 110 (101
Last 3 mids vs. Brisbane: 115, 118, 124 (119 avg)

Kennedy
Last 3: 96, 136, 107 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 86, 85, 57 (76 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 136, 94, 123 (118
Last 3 mids vs. Carlton: 94, 147, 127 (123 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 110, 138, 118 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 121, 61, 65 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 138, 94, 117 (116 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Port: 118, 141, 103 (121 avg)

Ellis
Last 3: 115, 115, 117 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 128, 78, 50 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 115, 100, 64 (93 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Port: 118, 141, 103 (121 avg)

Ebert
Last 3: 87, 98, 84 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 87, 94, 95 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 100, 83 (91 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Richmond: 137, 111, 107 (118 avg)

Heppell
Last 3: 74, 152, 102 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 129, 73, 100 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 102, 82, 129 (104 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Collingwood: 116, 108, 120 (115 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 83, 101, 103 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 143, 73, 114 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 68, 128, 143 (113 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Collingwood: 116, 108, 120 (115 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 111, 128, 106 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 107, 111, 108 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 128, 106, 100 (111 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Essendon: 97, 133, 149 (126 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 85, 104, 88 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 136, 117, 113 (122 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 104, 88, 76 (89 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Essendon: 97, 133, 149 (126 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 99, 147, 94 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 122, 115, 120 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 92, 102, 114 (103 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Essendon: 97, 133, 149 (126 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 82, 92, 102 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 122, 115, 120 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 92, 102, 114 (103 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Essendon: 97, 133, 149 (126 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 134, 96, 104 (111 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 106, 103 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 96, 104, 109 (103 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. GWS: 143, 136, 129 (136 avg)

Fyfe
Last 3: 86, 125, 108 (106 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 86 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 125, 108, 94 (109 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. GWS: 143, 136, 129 (136 avg)

Treloar
Last 3: 109, 97, 91 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 91, 106 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 91, 106 (99 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Fremantle: 102, 109, 172 (128 avg)

Ward
Last 3: 67, 92, 127 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 121, 89, 70 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 101, 121, 89 (104 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Fremantle: 102, 109, 172 (128 avg)

The thoughts:

Sloane
Last week's score inflated by a huge win. Hawks giving up big scores to top mids and plenty of tons in general. Sloane should be the top mid so expect him to do well. Prediction - 115

Johnson
Record against Melbourne is ridiculous. He's also great at the MCG. Plus the Dees are shy to giving up good scores. Chance for something really big. Prediction - 135

Selwood
Melbourne are giving up multiple tons so there's one for Jelwood too. He has 6 straight against them with 4 of those 120+. Very up and down at the MCG though. Prediction - 115

Greenwood
6 of his last 7 are tons (with 4 of those 127+). Hasn't played the Saints since 2011 so I'd not take much from those scores. Never played at Hobart but the Saints will likely give him a ton. Prediction - 110

Harvey
A little down on form and showerhouse in his career against the Saints. He is 2 from 2 at Hobart but I don't think that's enough. Prediction - 90

Liberatore
Bounced back after 2 poor weeks. There's nothing too exciting in his record against the Suns and he, like all Dogs, hasn't played at Cazaly before. The Suns are giving up small top scores and very few tons if they win. Don't expect much. Prediction - 95

Boyd
96 is his lowest against the Suns with three 125+ scores from 5 games. Will likely be the top scorer again but the Suns are being stingy when they win. Prediction - 110

Priddis
7 straight tons since his bye and a lowest of 97 since round 4. He's nothing special against the Lions but they're giving up plenty of tons and, although less so recently, have given up some big top scores. Prediction - 115

Kennedy
Sucks against the Blues but they're giving up solid scores when they lose. Averages 118 at the SCG this season. Expect his poor streak vs. Carlton to be broken. Prediction - 110

Cotchin
Finally hitting great form. Didn't play the Power last year but had 1 good and 1 bad in 2012. Port give up plenty when they lose but they probably won't lose to a shocking Tigers team. Prediction - 105

Ellis
7 straight tons, great against Port last year. Won't get tagged due to sometimes poor usage so will surely ton up. How big just depends on which Port team shows up. Prediction - 115

Ebert
Flat out horrible at the moment and not great against Richmond. Tigers are fairly stingy at the moment with Rocky the only exception. Prediction - 80

Heppell
Still can't handle a tag which brings about the issue of if he gets Macaffer? Watson was tagged last time but he's not playing this week... If he's free, he should be solid. Prediction - 105

Stanton
Plenty of big scores vs. Pies including 155, 143, 139, 139. Incredibly inconsistent though and not in great form. Could be big if he avoids Macaffer but hard to tell. Prediction - 100

Pendlebury
Super consistent and was really big in 2011 against the Bombers. He will definitely cop Hocking this week (he has in the past) and Hocking's on fire at the moment taking Boak (77), Motlop (81), and Smith (82) in recent weeks. Pendles is a different beast though so should break through for a decent score. Prediction - 110

Beams
Way out of form but great against the Bombers. If he was ever going to turn things around, it's this week. Prediction - 115

Sidebottom
Great against the Bombers. Shown the ability to go huge at the MCG with 147 and 141 (as well as a couple above 120). Very risky pick though with low lows. Prediction - 125

Swan
Has annihilated the Bombers in the past (187, 171, 171 in 2012 and 2011) but is atrocious this year. He is just managing to hold onto his 100 average and could lose it soon enough. Prediction - 99

Barlow
Far from consistent this year and only has the two average scores against GWS. Only the top mids seem to be killing GWS and there are threats from Mundy and Fyfe to take that spot. I reckon it'll be Barlow though. Prediction - 120

Fyfe
Doesn't have a track record of beating up on bottom dwellers and only has the one poor score against the Giants. Bit too inconsistent for me. Prediction - 90

Treloar
Bit down on form but not bad against Freo. The Dockers are very stingy with the exception of (guess who?) Rocky. Could cop the Crowley tag which would destroy him. Scully copped it last year but is not in great form. Prediction - 90

Ward
A couple of poor ones in a row plus Freo being stingy plus a chance for Crowley. Way too many risks to consider Ward but, if he pulls through them all, that 121 from last year looks nice. Prediction - 100

The verdict:

1.   Johnson (135)
2.   Sidebottom (125)
3.   Barlow (120)
4.   Selwood (115)
5.   Sloane (115)


Requests by pommyadam:

[pommyadam]

REQUESTS

Bernie Vince
Last 3: 96, 113, 169 (average 126)
Last 3 against Geelong: 101, 89, 84 (average 91)
Last 3 at MCG: 169, 71, 120 (average 120)
Mids vs Geelong: 119, 152, 155 (average 142)
Prediction: It's only the Geelong numbers that make me look at him (see below for more details). Bear in mind his history against Geelong has him as a tagger. In reasonable form, but inconsistent at the MCG (is that really his fault though?) - 115

List of requests:
Bernie Vince - 115

[pommyadam]

It's a bold person that takes SJ with his recent performances (and Jelwood too)

If you're going for Stanton/Heppell, which one do you think Caffa is going to?
One probably goes 80s, and the other is the score listed

Pity there aren't any relevant premo Melbourne mids, Geelong's last 3 = 142 (highest in league by 10), last 5 = 132 (highest in league) and sincebye = 131 (also highest in league)


locking in Barlow personally, probably Cotchin as VC

[henry]

It's a bold person that takes SJ with his recent performances (and Jelwood too)

If you're going for Stanton/Heppell, which one do you think Caffa is going to?
One probably goes 80s, and the other is the score listed

Pity there aren't any relevant premo Melbourne mids, Geelong's last 3 = 142 (highest in league by 10), last 5 = 132 (highest in league) and sincebye = 131 (also highest in league)


locking in Barlow personally, probably Cotchin as VC

Since his return from his week off he's averaged over 110, for me Stevie's the standout and will be going with him, probbaly pendles vc.

Due to rocky and Gaj being out I still have to hold onto Tyson for another week, hopefully with those stats he does ok  :P

[pommyadam]

those figures are just the highest scorer for the position, but I can say that Geelong give you 4 tons on average (have held the opposition tonless on 3 occasions though)
BUT they did blow out and cough up 8 in their trashing by Sydney in rd11

[LaHug]

BUT they did blow out and cough up 8 in their trashing by Sydney in rd11

Of course, we don't expect Melbourne to do quite as well as the Swans... ;)

[Ricochet]

Limited options this week. Thinking SJ though

[Nige]

I'm actually leaning towards Priddis (who I just traded in for Gaz).

[Chelskiman]

Didn't realise SJ had such an awesome record against the Dees.  Swaying towards him at this stage.

[Alka]

Not sure how relevant past records v Dees are, given their huge change in play-style this year.
Anyone worried about McKenzie tagging SJ?

I'm tossing up between him and the big game player, Pendles.

[LaHug]

Not sure how relevant past records v Dees are, given their huge change in play-style this year.
Anyone worried about McKenzie tagging SJ?

I'm tossing up between him and the big game player, Pendles.

Hard to say if things have changed this year. Libba's first game against the Dees was just like old times but how second one was crap. I reckon SJ should be fine.

[pommyadam]

Hard to say if things have changed this year. Libba's first game against the Dees was just like old times but how second one was crap. I reckon SJ should be fine.

game one had the inclusion of a certain Griffen player who took the tag
game 2 was part of Griff's injury, and Libba got tagged

IF you think he'll be tagged (and I personally think he will be) then I'd avoid SJ

[Jroo]

Going to take a risk and go with Swanny.
Good stuff, as always LH.

[LaHug]

Hard to say if things have changed this year. Libba's first game against the Dees was just like old times but how second one was crap. I reckon SJ should be fine.

game one had the inclusion of a certain Griffen player who took the tag
game 2 was part of Griff's injury, and Libba got tagged

IF you think he'll be tagged (and I personally think he will be) then I'd avoid SJ

I reckon Selwood gets tagged but I could be wrong.

[Flame]

Went SJ!