PAs Captains - round 16, SUPER late I know - new research for Gaj C'ers

pommyadam · July 04, 2014, 12:25:16 PM

Sorry guys, been really busy this week, I apologise
Called the number 1 option last week (and was the highest scorer for the round to boot), but the #2 option (Libba) bombed
Open to taking requests, so go for it

Tom Rockliff
Last 3: 122, 172, 75 (average 123)
Last 3 against Richmond: 116, 115, 82 (average 104)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 100, 130 (average 115)
Mids vs Richmond: 111, 107, 113. Last 3 average of 110, a since-bye average of 116, and a season average of 123. 13/14 have made at least 110, with 7 of them making 120 (and 5 over 130)
Prediction: In great form, with solid performances in Victoria. Richmond concede reasonable scores with regularity, and the absence of Redden only helps his cause. - 119

Gary Ablett
Last 3: 157, 137, 118 (average 137)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 163, 190, 97 (average 150)
Last 3 at Metricon: 137, 146, 78 (average 120)
Mids vs Collingwood: 108, 120, 126. Last 3 average of 118, since-bye average of 122, and a season average of 116. 11/14 make the ton, and 7/14 go on to make 120
Prediction: HOLY CRAP! Is there a guy in better form playing against a team he tears up on? The Macaffer tag is the ONLY thing that keeps this down, but is Caffa good enough? - 135
NOTE: Macaffer has kept every victim to a sub 90 score on all but 3 occasions this season, but can Gaj's history overcome this?

Trent Cotchin
Last 3: 138, 118, 100 (average 119)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 138, 105, 103 (average 115)
Last 3 at MCG: 118, 100, 86 (average 101)
Mids vs Brisbane: 118, 124, 129. Last 3 average of 124, since-bye average of 133, season average of 137. EVERY score over 110, with 8 of them being above 130.
Prediction: Is Cotchin back? PROBABLY - in good form, against a team that he scores well on (and give up HEAPS)... but a reasonable MCG record. - 125

Scott Thompson
Last 3: 141, 149, 120 (average 137)
Last 3 against GWS: 131, 112, 110 (average 118)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 112
Mids vs GWS: 136, 113, 103. Last 3 average of 117, since-bye average of 121, and a season average of 119. 11/14 over 110, but only 4 making 130
Prediction: In great form, and should do well against a GWS side and prefers it in WesternSydney. Looks like a reasonable option - 115

Levi Greenwood
Last 3: 77, 127, 109 (average 104)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 55, 71, 62 (average 63)
Last 3 at Docklands: 109, 91, 120 (average 107)
Mids vs Hawthorn: 157, 106, 122. Last 3 average of 128, a since-bye average of 130, and a season average of 129. 11/14 over 120, and 7 making the 130 mark.
Prediction: POOR form against Hawthorn, in reasonable form, and does well at Etihad. Still can't accurately call a breakout player though - 110

Scott Pendlebury
Last 3: 128, 106, 114 (average 116)
Last 3 against GoldCoast: 109, 59*, 124 (average 116 - ignoring the 59 due to breaking his leg in that game)
Last 3 at Metricon: 109, 124 (average 116)
Mids vs Gold Coast: 135, 103, 108. Last 3 average of 115, since-bye average of 116, season average of 123. 14/14 make the ton, but only 7 have made 120+
Prediction: In good form, but that 116 keeps popping up doesn't it? Any takers for that score? :P - 116

Michael Barlow
Last 3: 96, 104, 113 (average 104)
Last 3 against Dees: 116, 149, 108 (average 124)
Last 3 in Darwin: NEVER PLAYED
Mids vs Dees: 125, 127, 157. Last 3 average of 136, since-bye average of 125, season average of 129. 14/14 tons, with 8/14 passing 120.
Prediction: Going to be a hot game... In good form against the Dees, but more consistent rather than big. Should still provide a reasonable score though - 115

Dayne Beams
Last 3: 104, 88, 76 (average 89)
Last 3 against GoldCoast: 134, 101 (average 118)
Last 3 at Metricon: 134 (ONLY GAME)
Mids vs GoldCoast: Not much I can say here that I didn't say for Pendles. GC regularly give up 4 tons per game, all 14 mids made the ton, with 11 over 110. 6/14 make 130+
Prediction: In okay-ish form, and does well against GC (they have improved since he last played them though) - seems to like the trip home to QLD, with 4/4 tons since 2011 - 110

Brad Ebert
Last 3: 98, 84, 136 (average 106)
Last 3 against Essendon: 135, 104, 82 (average 107)
Last 3 at Adelaide Oval: 98, 84, 110 (average 97)
Mids vs Essendon: 133, 149, 108. Last 3 average of 130, since-bye average of 125, but a season average of 120. Seems to be bigger scores since ASADA's intervention
Prediction: In reasonable form, and against a side that seems to be giving up bigger scores. BUT seems to do better on the road. - 105

Nathan Fyfe
Last 3: 125, 108, 110 (average 114)
Last 3 against Dees: 77, 99, 111 (average 96)
Last 3 in Darwin: NEVER PLAYED
Mids vs Dees: Copy and Paste Barlow... 5 scores over 130, and 12 scores over 110. Give out slightly under 4 tons per game
Prediction: Is the tag heading to Fyfe? Doesn't do that well against the Dees, but in reasonable form, but will the heat affect him? - 105

Patrick Dangerfield
Last 3: 113, 79, 73 (average 88)
Last 3 against GWS: 149, 141, 76 (average 122)
Last 3 at Showground: 76
Mids vs GWS: Give out 3 tons per game, but pretty inconsistent with it (2 teams held tonless, but also two with 7 of them). 12/14 make the ton, but only 4 have passed 130.
Prediction: ahh, now I can see why he was requested. In pretty good form against GWS, but poor in his sole game at showground, and was last game just lifting for the derby? Hmm..... - 110

Matt Priddis
Last 3: 109, 101, 108 (average 106)
Last 3 against Sydney: 116, 111, 85 (average 104)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 109, 108, 143 (average 120)
Mids vs Sydney: 97, 118, 133. Last 3 average of 116, since-bye average of 120, and a season average of 124. 12/14 make the ton, and 7/14 make 130+. Last time a ton wasn't conceded, they followed it up with 132, so omens?
Prediction: Mr Consistent rolls into town, likes it against Sydney, and at Subiaco, and in good form - 120

Brendon Goddard
Last 3: 86, 147, 157 (average 130)
Last 3 against Port: 123, 96, 105 (average 108)
Last 3 at AdelaideOval: NEVER PLAYED
Mids vs Port: 141, 103, 117. Last 3 average of 120, since-bye average of 120, and a season average of 124. 14/14 tons, and 7 make 120+
Prediction: In ripper form, but didn't do that well last game out.... Does well against Port, and they give up some reasonable scores, and okay-ish scores in Adelaide (but at FootyPark) - 115

Dyson Heppell
Last 3: 152, 102, 102 (average 119)
Last 3 against Port: 87, 98, 87 (average 91)
Last 3 at AdelaideOval: NEVER PLAYED
Mids vs Port: Copy paste above... 10 scores over 110, with 7 over 120. Port give up the least tons in the league too, under 3 per game
Prediction: I think he's getting the Cornes tag... Only one score over 80 in Adelaide, in reasonable form against Port, but is in good form. I'd be looking elsewhere - 95

Isaac Smith
Last 3: 135, 96, 102 (average 111)
Last 3 against North: 94, 62, 66 (average 74)
Last 3 at Docklands: 73, 94, 92 (average 86)
Mids vs North: 140, 169, 120. Last 3 average of 143, since-bye average of 134, and a season average of 130. 13/14 scores over 110, and 6/14 have made 130+
Prediction: Another player in this game breaking out.... In great form, but only okay at Docklands, and poor form against North. - 90

Adam Treloar
Last 3: 97, 91, 115 (average 101)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 68, 94, 59 (average 74)
Last 3 at Showground: 91, 130, 118 (average 113)
Mids vs Adelaide: 110, 147, 109. Last 3 average of 122, since-bye average of 118, and a season average of 116 (LOWEST IN COMP). 13/14 tons, but all players that make 120 (4/14) have gone past 130
Prediction: In good form, and does well at home, but Adelaide are too miserable for mind, can't see it being a big one - 110

The List:
Gary Ablett - 135
Trent Cotchin - 125
Matt Priddis - 120
Tom Rockliff - 119
Scott Pendlebury - 116
Scott Thompson - 115
Michael Barlow - 115
Brendon Goddard - 115
Dayne Beams - 110
Levi Greenwood - 110
Partrick Dangerfield - 110
Adam Treloar - 110
Brad Ebert - 105
Nathan Fyfe - 105
Dyson Heppell - 95
Isaac Smith - 90

Chelskiman · July 04, 2014, 01:10:37 PM

Usually I'd post who I'm making captain, but seeing as I'm up against you this week, PA, I think I'll keep it quiet.

pommyadam · July 04, 2014, 01:12:35 PM

Quote from: Chelskiman on July 04, 2014, 01:10:37 PM
Usually I'd post who I'm making captain, but seeing as I'm up against you this week, PA, I think I'll keep it quiet.

BOO YOU WHORE! :P

Haha, I'm debating Cotchin/Rocky/Barlow personally, but will decide come 7pm tonight

elephants · July 04, 2014, 01:20:39 PM

Great work on the write-up mate, really got me thinking!

Can I request Beams? Thanks man!

jacksonmcguire · July 04, 2014, 01:24:36 PM

Can I please request: Ebert, Fyfe and Dangerfield? Thanks! :D

pommyadam · July 04, 2014, 01:49:50 PM

Requests are updated

As this is up late, I'm getting around to completing some more obscure choices (Goddard, Priddis, others) - I just put up the vanilla choices to begin with

*sigh* busy afternoon in store

bombers11 · July 04, 2014, 02:00:16 PM

Heppell?

pommyadam · July 04, 2014, 02:06:45 PM

done.

Didn't realise FootyPark was the old Adelaide AFL stadium, so have updated Goddard's "never played in Adelaide" claim

HBTD22 · July 04, 2014, 03:23:28 PM

Quote from: pommyadam on July 04, 2014, 02:06:45 PM
Didn't realise FootyPark was the old Adelaide AFL stadium, so have updated Goddard's "never played in Adelaide" claim

Where did you think footy was played here in Adelaide then? ::)

pommyadam · July 04, 2014, 03:27:21 PM

Quote from: HBTD22 on July 04, 2014, 03:23:28 PM
Quote from: pommyadam on July 04, 2014, 02:06:45 PM
Didn't realise FootyPark was the old Adelaide AFL stadium, so have updated Goddard's "never played in Adelaide" claim

Where did you think footy was played here in Adelaide then? ::)

I actually thought it was always played at the Adelaide Oval....
in fairness, I've only started seriously following AFL in the past 2 seasons (I'm more of a statistics person)

Nige · July 04, 2014, 04:25:24 PM

Can I get a look at Isaac Smith and Adam Treloar thanks buddy?

kilbluff1985 · July 04, 2014, 04:35:11 PM

Ablett wont go 120+ imo

LaHug · July 04, 2014, 04:45:34 PM

Just so that PA can stop trying to take the blame for this, it's my fault it's so late. I forgot to say I'd be out/busy all week and forgot to send a message to PA...

pommyadam · July 04, 2014, 05:25:43 PM

Quote from: NigeyS on July 04, 2014, 04:25:24 PM
Can I get a look at Isaac Smith and Adam Treloar thanks buddy?

Treloar for mind,

hard to pick with Smith, I think one Hawk will score well, but I don't know who it'll be
Lewis, Hodge, Smith all have the possibility of going 130, but their records are poor
Smitchell's the one with the history, but I think he'll be hampered by a lack of match fitness
a VERY risky punt if you fancy one, but don't say I didn't warn you

Nige · July 04, 2014, 05:55:14 PM

Cheers mate.

I think I'm gonna risk Heppell as captain in BXVs (sportal) and roll with Isaac for EXVs (dreamteam) since there aren't many other options for that one. Also gonna go with Beams and Mummy co-captains in WXVs (supercoach), although I'm thinking Malceski could be worth a look. And Levi Greenwood is skipper in AXVs (sportsbet) because he's killing it.

So yeah, basically use these captains articles as a form guide/second opinion every week. :P