PA's Captains - round 15

[pommyadam]

Right, so our good friend LaHug is holiday'ing this week, so I'm taking it over.
We had a mixed week last week, with such options as Rocky/Gaj scoring over 135, and Beams/Ebert failing to crack 90

If I miss anyone, then feel free to make a request

Getting right onto it:

Josh P Kennedy
Last 3: 107, 94, 103 (average 101)
Last 3 against GWS: 83, 107, 87 (average 92)
Last 3 at SCG: 94, 123, 123 (average 113)
Mids vs GWS: 113, 103, 132. A last 3 average of 116 is in line with their season average. 10/13 mids have made at least 110
Prediction: Form is handy, as is history. But a miserly GWS side means that this will be on the low side - 110

Brad Ebert
Last 3: 84, 136, 110 (average 110)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 127, 76, 72 (average 92)
Last 3 at AO: 110, 115, 109 (average 111)
Mids vs Adelaide: 147, 109, 109. A last 3 average of 121 is better than their season average of 116. 12/13 mids have made the ton, and 4/13 have made 130.
Prediction: Reasonable scoring history, but will be a cagey affair, and Adelaide are better at home. So probably not as big as you'd think - 110

Tom Liberatore
Last 3: 88, 126, 112 (average 109)
Last 3 against Dees: 146, 148, 144 (average 146)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 112, 119 (average 122)
Mids vs Dees: 127, 157, 114. A last 3 average of 130 is better than their season average of 129, all 13 have made the ton, with 5 of them making 130+.
Prediction: No tag this week (with McKenzie and Cross both out) LOVES playing the Dees, and at Etihad, where he does well too - 135

Dayne Beams
Last 3: 88, 76, 126 (average 97)
Last 3 against Carlton: 107, 78, 93 (average 93)
Last 3 at MCG: 76, 113, 107 (average 99)
Mids vs Carlton: 127, 111, 101. A last 3 average of 113 is worse than their season average of 115, with only 7/13 making the 110 mark, but 13/13 with tons.
Prediction: Out of form, playing a miserly Carlton side, look elsewhere - 95

Scott Pendlebury
Last 3: 106, 114, 100 (average 107)
Last 3 against Carlton: 91, 133, 108 (average 111)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 119, 91 (average 103)
Mids vs Carlton: 127, 111, 101 (average 113). A since-bye average of 118 is only inflated by Rocky's massive 153. 7/13 making 110, with a perfect ton record.
Prediction: Seems to step up against a good tag, and is in reasonable form. - 115

Gary Ablett
Last 3: 137, 118, 146 (average 134)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 132, 139, 175 (average 149)
Last 3 at Aurora: 135, 74 (average 105)
Mids vs Hawthorn: 106, 122, 135. A last 3 average of 121 is lower than their season average of 127. 10/13 mids make the 120 mark, but only 6 have passed 130.
Prediction: How much do you want to read into Aurora history? Tears it up against the Hawks, and has been tearing it up recently. And Hawthorn give up some big scores, JUST DO IT! - 140

Steve Johnson
Last 3: 103, 77, 94 (average 91)
Last 3 against Essendon: 105, 107, 110 (average 107)
Last 3 at Etihad: 77, 112, 105 (average 98)
Mids vs Essendon: 149, 108, 130. A last 3 average of 129 is higher than a season average of 118. 6/13 mids have passed 130, with 11 of them tonning up. Seem to be giving out higher scores since ASADA had their way.
Prediction: Good history against Essendon seems to be the only thing working for him (and Essendon's bigger scores recently) - 110

Trent Cotchin
Last 3: 118, 100, 94 (average 104)
Last 3 against StKilda: 85, 121, 90 (average 99)
Last 3 at Etihad: 94, 117, 100 (average 104)
Mids vs StKilda: 109, 141, 138. A last 3 average of 129 is better than their season average of 126. A perfect ton record, and 7 of them have passed 130
Prediction: Is Cotchin back? Hmmm, probably not yet. The StKilda performances this season work for him, but that's about it - 105

Michael Barlow
Last 3: 104, 113, 109 (average 109)
Last 3 against WC: 80, 102, 106 (average 96)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 109, 98, 80 (average 96)
Mids vs WC: 101, 139, 111. Last 3 average of 117 is lower than their season of 125. 7/13 have made 120 or more, with every mid making 100.
Prediction: More solid than spectacular, I'd look elsewhere, especially in a derby game - 115

Tom Rockliff
Last 3: 172, 75, 102 (average 116)
Last 3 against North: 134, 117, 76 (average 109)
Last 3 at Gabba: 75, 153, 147 (average 125)
Mids vs North: 169, 120, 101. Last 3 average of 130 is in line with their season average. However only 5/13 mids have actually broken 130 (and 7 over 120) so looks to be blowout scores
Prediction: Only a 116 average with a 170+ score in there? He's the highest averaging mid for a reason, and will be a solid score considering North don't tag - 125

Brendan Goddard
Last 3: 147, 157, 74 (average 126)
Last 3 against Geelong: 101, 125, 56 (average 94)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 105, 95 (average 106)
Mids vs Geelong: 155, 97, 139. Last 3 average of 130 is 10 higher than their season average. Only 10/13 tons, but 5/13 over 130.
Prediction: Seems to be the Essendon player to have, and is in ripper form. That 56 came back in his StKilda days, so we can probably ignore that. Looks relatively solid otherwise - 115

Adam Treloar
Last 3: 91, 115, 130 (average 112)
Last 3 against Sydney: 124, 97, 98 (average 106)
Last 3 at SCG: 97
Mids vs Sydney: 118, 133, 146. Last 3 average of 132 is ahead of their season average (125). 9/13 120+ scores, and 7/13 over 130.
Prediction: How can a Sydney side only have 1 score at the SCG? Whatever.... In good form, and good history against Sydney, so should be a good score here too - 120

Bryce Gibbs
Last 3: 113, 112, 139 (average 121)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 72, 60, 83 (average 72)
Last 3 at MCG: 112, 113, 72 (average 99)
Mids vs Collingwood: 120, 126, 120. Last 3 average of 122 is better than their 117 season average. Only 10/13 breaking the ton, but 7/13 making it past 120.
Prediction: In good form, but Collingwood are pretty restrictive (caffa tag). History is POOR though, so avoid - 95

Matt Priddis
Last 3: 101, 108, 110 (average 103)
Last 3 against Freo: 97, 82, 98 (average 92)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 108, 143, 98 (average 116)
Mids vs Freo: 172, 114, 87. Last 3 average of 124 even with that 172 in there. Exactly the same as the season average too. 5/13 over 130, 10/13 over 110, but only 11/13 over 90.
Prediction: Not good history against Fremantle, despite their obvious showing last week. Will look for them to revert to old in a tight contest - 100

Boomer Harvey
Last 3: 97, 126, 119 (average 114)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 144, 80, 101 (average 108)
Last 3 at Gabba: 80, 100, 95 (average 92)
Mids vs Brisbane: 124, 129, 139. Last 3 average of 130 is bringing their season average down (currently 138). 8/13 over 130, with 12/13 over 120
Prediction: Should get forward and kick a few goals especially in the dry, but could be tapered because he is a forward. - 115



Top 5 (and ties):
Gary Ablett - 140
Tom Liberatore - 135
Tom Rockliff - 125
Adam Treloar - 120
Scott Pendlebury - 115
Brendan Goddard - 115
Michael Barlow - 115
Boomer Harvey - 115

[pommyadam]

REQUESTS

Dane Swan (by jvalles69)
Last 3: 103, 114, 101 (average 106)
Last 3 against Carlton: 102, 163, 117 (average 127)
Last 3 at MCG: 114, 101, 102 (average 106)
Mids vs Carlton: 127, 111, 101.  Last 3 average of 113, last 5 average of 118, season average of 115. 2/13 over 130, 13/13 tons.
Prediction: Look at that Carlton record? - like it? I do. Looks like he's getting back to his piglike best, but looks to be only good for a moderate score, rather than the bangs that we're used to - 110

Joel Selwood (by jvalles69)
Last 3: 91, 70, 79 (average 80)
Last 3 against Essendon: 101, 95, 90 (average 95)
Last 3 at Etihad: 79, 98, 101 (average 93)
Mids vs Essendon: 149, 108, 130. Last 3 average of 129, since bye average of 122. 6/13 over 130, but 7/13 over 110.
Prediction: WHAT HAVE YOU DONE WITH THE REAL JELWOOD? So out of form it isn't funny, and does poorly against Essendon too - 95

Luke Parker (by jvalles69)
Last 3: 73, 98, 108 (average 93)
Last 3 against GWS: 90, 79, 85 (average 85)
Last 3 at SCG: 73, 108, 92 (average 91)
FWDs vs GWS: 129, 90, 89. Last 3 average of 103 is lower than their season average of 114. Erratic as heck though, with 3/13 over 130 and 4/13 scores under 100.
Prediction: I think he's out of form personally.... would look elsewhere and his history isn't great either - 90

Dyson Heppell (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 102, 89, 82 (average 91)
Last 3 against Geelong: 78, 79, 100 (average 86)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 98, 43 (average 89)
Mids vs Geelong: 155, 97, 139. A last 3 average of 130 and a since-bye average of 130. 5/13 scores over 130, with 9/13 over 110.
Prediction: In reasonable form, and does okay against Geelong, but a 43 in his Etihad history (granted WAY back when) has me a little concerned. Geelong are pretty miserly too - 105

Dion Prestia (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 139, 107, 130 (average 125)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 88, 117, 87 (average 97)
Last 3 at Aurora: 28
Mids vs Hawthorn: 106, 122, 135. A last 3 average of 121 and a since bye average of 125. 10/13 scores over 120, but Gaj is also in the team
Prediction: Is in great form, but horrid Aurora history and a reasonable record vs Hawthorn suggest an okay-ish option - 115

Levi Greenwood (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 127, 109, 109 (average 115)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 91, 74, 82 (average 82)
Last 3 at Gabba: 74, 38 (average 56)
Mids vs Brisbane: 124, 129, 139. A last 3 average of 131, and a since-bye average of 136. 8/13 scores over 130, and 12/13 over 120.
Prediction: I still don't trust him, despite the numbers telling me otherwise. In good form, and okay against Brisbane, but poor form at the Gabba. Is breaking out though. I'm tempted to make it more, but erring on the side of caution - 115

Shane Mumford (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 139, 83, 88 (average 103)
Last 3 against Sydney: 110, 43, 84 (average 79)
Last 3 at SCG: 91, 103, 63 (average 86)
Rucks vs Sydney: 99, 126, 94. A last 3 average of 106, a since-bye average of 101, and a season average of 93. 4/13 tons, but only one score over 120
Prediction: Is in great form, and has reasonable history against the oppositon and at the SCG. - 95

Jack Redden (by GoLions16)
Last 3: 117, 103, 128 (average 116)
Last 3 against North: 110, 74, 97 (average 94)
Last 3 at Gabba: 103, 120, 89 (average 104)
Mids vs North: 169, 120, 101. A last 3 average of 130, and a since-bye average of 133. 5/13 over 130 and 12/13 over 110.
Prediction: Looks like a solid contributor. In good form, and does well at the Gabba, and North are one of the better sides for scoring on too - 115

Dustin Martin (calvin effect)
Last 3: 128, 111, 123 (average 121)
Last 3 against StKilda: 71, 93, 77 (average 80)
Last 3 at Etihad: 123, 76, 88 (average 96)
Mids vs StKilda: 109, 141, 138. A last 3 average of 129, a last-5 average of 129, and a season average of 125. 7/13 scores over 130, with 13/13 tons. FWDs last 3 of 118, and a last-5 of 118 (scores of 112, 118, 125)
Prediction: Not too much different here depending on how you class him. Only 2 90s in his career against StKilda though (6 games) but can go big at Docklands - 110

Marc Murphy (by Toga)
Last 3: 88, 84, 153 (average 108)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 74, 68, 84 (average 75)
Last 3 at MCG: 88, 72, 74 (average 78)
Mids vs Collingwood: 120, 126, 120. Last 3 average of 122, since-bye average of 125, and a season average of 117. Only Carlton and Adelaide give up less points to mids.
Prediction: Murphy, meet Macaffer. Murphy, meet low score. HORRIBLE history at the MCG, and even worse against Collingwood. I guess he's in reasonable form, but he did miss last week - 80



List of requests:
Dion Prestia - 115
Levi Greenwood - 115
Jack Redden - 115
Dane Swan - 110
Dustin Martin - 110
Dyson Heppell - 105
Joel Selwood - 95
Shane Mumford - 95
Luke Parker - 90
Marc Murphy - 80

[jvalles69]

Damn, you're making me think twice about bringing in Parker over Harvey this week!  ???

Can I request Swan, Jelwood and Parker then please?

[Ricochet]

Tom Liberatore
Last 3: 88, 126, 112 (average 109)
Last 3 against Dees: 146, 148, 144 (average 146)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 112, 119 (average 122)
Mids vs Dees: 127, 157, 114. A last 3 average of 130 is better than their season average of 129, all 13 have made the ton, with 5 of them making 130+.
Prediction: A tag makes him less appealing, but LOVES playing the Dees, and at Etihad, where he does well too - 120 (135 if Griffen plays)

No Cross or McKenzie for Melb this week ;)

[pommyadam]

Tom Liberatore
Last 3: 88, 126, 112 (average 109)
Last 3 against Dees: 146, 148, 144 (average 146)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 112, 119 (average 122)
Mids vs Dees: 127, 157, 114. A last 3 average of 130 is better than their season average of 129, all 13 have made the ton, with 5 of them making 130+.
Prediction: A tag makes him less appealing, but LOVES playing the Dees, and at Etihad, where he does well too - 120 (135 if Griffen plays)

No Cross or McKenzie for Melb this week ;)

they're both out?
okay... make it 135 then

have adjusted it,
and updated the requests

edit: my C this week is Rocky, putting the VC on Treloar - because I don't have Libba or Gaj

[Jroo]

Good stuff PA.
I thnk I'll stick with Ablett again, he should find a lot of the ball against the Hawks.

[Nige]

I'd like my boys HeppD, Dion, Levi of the Greenwood variety and Mummy thanks PA!  8)

[Ricochet]

Tom Liberatore
Last 3: 88, 126, 112 (average 109)
Last 3 against Dees: 146, 148, 144 (average 146)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 112, 119 (average 122)
Mids vs Dees: 127, 157, 114. A last 3 average of 130 is better than their season average of 129, all 13 have made the ton, with 5 of them making 130+.
Prediction: A tag makes him less appealing, but LOVES playing the Dees, and at Etihad, where he does well too - 120 (135 if Griffen plays)

No Cross or McKenzie for Melb this week ;)

they're both out?
okay... make it 135 then

have adjusted it,
and updated the requests

edit: my C this week is Rocky, putting the VC on Treloar - because I don't have Libba or Gaj

Yeh man, Cross has a fractured leg apparently. Going to miss 4-6 weeks

[GoLions]

Great stuff PA

Brought in Libba this week and have chucked the C on him, goes nuts against the Dees
Hopefully Gaz, Rocky, Pendles, and Barlow all perform as predicted as well :)

Could I get a prediction on Redden? Considering offloading him to Treloar (or someone else) this week

[pommyadam]

Requests have been updated

I'd personally keep Redden, seems to be doing well since I've started captaincy options :P
won't win you a game like many others, but is good for a consistent score

and part of me wants to make Greenwood more (given that I think he will be the top mid scorer for North) but the numbers just don't support it (he is breaking out though, so is the history relevant?)
I think it could be 125, but am erring on the side of caution

[GoLions]

Requests have been updated

I'd personally keep Redden, seems to be doing well since I've started captaincy options :P
won't win you a game like many others, but is good for a consistent score

Cheers, looks like Redden stays for now :)

[Nige]

Thanks for those!  :D

Got a few tough decisions to make by the looks of it.

[RookieDTer]

Well, in that case, I 'll keep GAblett.

Thanks!

[kilbluff1985]

no idea who to go

have Ablett, Libba and Rocky

i feel Rocky will really want a win for Brownie leaning towards him

[pommyadam]

Gaj's 75 at Aurora came when GC were in their first year, Hawk's don't tag, and Gaj is in ripper form against them
Libba has the AMAZING history vs Dees, and no tag (or Grimes, so effectively no tag)
Rocky missed the earlier clash with North due to gastro-gate, and should do pretty well in the damp conditions on gameday

also updated with Dusty after reading Calvin's article

and thanks to Ringo for sticky-ing this for me  :)