NBA Season 2014-2015

[Jay]

For Pick 6 (iirc) you'd really expect more. I watched the game, brought nothing.

Motum and Bairstow had much more impact.

Pick 5 he was. I'm bring very patient with Dante, hasn't played much against top level players.

Hopefully Bairstow gets some game time for the Bulls this year.

[valkorum]

Rondo wants out

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/8/31/6089601/rajon-rondo-trade-request-celtics-rumors

[Jay]

Rondo wants out

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/8/31/6089601/rajon-rondo-trade-request-celtics-rumors

I'm praying it's not true, but Jackie Mac is usually a pretty reliable source.

The teams I can see that have interest in Rondo are Kings, Rockets and Knicks. Now Rondo had said he won't re-sign in Sacremento, so they'd be crazy to give up a lot for a 1 year rental. If they do though, Id want Stauskas, Mclemore and need them to take back Gerald Wallace.

The Rockets can't offer us much at all. Jones, Beverley, non guaranteed contexts and picks are the only assets I could see them trading but that's probably not enough.

Knicks are an interesting fit for Rondo. My proposal would be:

Boston trades: Rajon Rondo, Gerald Wallace, Jeff Green
New York trades: Amar'e Stoudemire, Iman Shumpert, Tim Hardaway Jr, 2018 1st round pick, 2020 1st round pick, right to swap 1st round picks in 2017 and 2019.

Wouldn't be too disappointed if a trade like that happens. Better than losing him for nothing :'(

[Jay]

http://www.celticslife.com/2014/08/report-rondos-agent-denies-celtics-star.html

"Spokeswoman for Rajon Rondo's agent, Bill Duffy, said both men deny that Celtics guard has demanded a trade."

[Jay]

Well Spain got knocked out by France.

This tournament just got a whole lot more boring  >:(

[valkorum]

Well Spain got knocked out by France.

This tournament just got a whole lot more boring  >:(

Tend to agree - means USA will win (over Serbia)

[Mat0369]

[Jay]

USA vs Serbia final.

Snooze ::)

[Master Q]

Congrats USA.

Davis has now won an NCAA title, Olympic Gold Medal and FIBA World Championship. If he wins a ring he'll be the first player to have won all four.

[Master Q]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba-needs-to-pull-stars-from-usa-basketball--which-is-showcasing-only-duke-s-coach-044717393.html

[Jay]

So with it being a quiet time during the NBA year, thought I'd start my pre-season power rankings. There's like 40-something days left until tip-off, so I'll do these like once a day or one every two days and that should get us pretty close to opening night. Hopefully Ray signs somewhere soon as that will impact my top half a dozen teams.

I'll countdown from #30 - #1, so predicting who I think will be the worst team in the league, right through until my title favourite is revealed.

JAYMAN'S PRE-SEASON POWER RANKINGS

30. Philadelphia 76ers

Last season's record: 19-63
Best player: Michael Carter-Williams - 16.7points, 6.3assists, 6.2rebounds, PER 15.59

Key off-season moves:
IN: Joel Embiid (draft), Dario Saric (draft)
OUT: Thad Young (trade)
Thad Young was the team leader in win shares last season, and don't expect Embiid and Saric to make up for that. Embiid is likely to miss the season due to injury and Saric won't be coming over to the NBA for another couple of seasons.

Projected Starting 5:
PG: Michael Carter-Williams
SG: Tony Wroten
SF: Jason Richardson
PF: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
C: Nerlens Noel
6th man: Alexey Shved

Hard to predict their starting 5 as I have no idea if Richardson is still keen to play or not, but if he's fit I'd expect him to be good enough to play the 3 for them. They may start Carter-Williams and Shved together, but Wroten wasn't awful last year so I'd give the edge to him.

What to watch for:
1. The impact of Nerlens Noel's defense - although still very raw offensively, I can see him dramatically improve the 76ers defense from day 1. He is very athletic and has good timing knowing when to jump - hopefully he can stay out of foul trouble, which is something that often hurts young bigs.
2. Whether Carter-Williams will improve or regress from his rookie season - it remains to be seen whether MCW is really a good young talent or he was just putting up good stats on a bad team, because someone had to. He shot 40% from the field and 26% from 3pt so that obviously is a main area he should be improving. If he can shoot 45% from the field and 30% from deep, I'd say that's a huge success.

Strength: Forcing turnovers - 3rd in the league for opponent turnover percentage last season. This is probably due to Carter-Williams and Wroten gambling for steals to up their stats but still by far what they are best at.
Weakness: Were the only team in the league to have an offensive rating of less than 100. Don't expect that to be any better this year as Thaddeus Young scored their most points.

Final thoughts: In 2013/2014 they were the 11th worst team of all-time (http://bkref.com/tiny/PEBPA), and they are going to suck again this year. The GM has traded away every half-decent player that wasn't part of their future (Holiday, Turner, Hawes, Young) for draft picks so they can bottom out to last place and pick up talent through the draft. Risky strategy, when there haven't been many contenders that have successfully built through the draft - OKC being the only one I can think of. But they've at least given this team a direction rather than floating around in mediocrity. Their future will depend on whether Noel and Embiid can stay healthy.

Predicted conference rank: 15th

[Mat0369]

KJ McDaniels or Hollis Thompson will be the starting SF on the team. PF is weird, they might go two centers in prep for having a 2nd big in Embiid next year and start both Sims and Noel

[Jay]

JAYMAN'S PRE-SEASON POWER RANKINGS

29. Orlando Magic

Last season's record: 23-59
Best player: Nikola Vucevic - 14.2points, 11rebounds, 0.8blocks, PER 18.85

Off-season moves:
IN: Aaron Gordon (draft), Elfrid Payton (draft), Evan Fournier (trade), Channing Frye (free agency), Ben Gordon (free agency), Luke Ridnour (free agency)
OUT: Aaron Afflalo (trade), Jameer Nelson (free agency)
Similar to Philly, Orlando lost their best player from last season (Aaron Afflalo) who accounted for 5.3 win shares, leading the team. Think this was quite a poor move as Evan Fournier isn't even close to Afflalo and they ended up over-paying Ben Gordon for outside shooting anyway. Jameer was always going to become a free agent and it made little sense for a young team like Orlando to re-sign him. Frye was an interesting one, he is probably being overpaid for his age but his 3pt range will provide spacing for Vucevic. They had a very solid draft picking up Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton who should have an immediate impact, although both of their shooting strokes appear to be broken.

Projected Starting 5:
PG: Elfrid Payton
SG: Victor Oladipo
SF: Tobias Harris
PF: Channing Frye
C: Nikola Vucevic
6th man: Aaron Gordon
Seems pretty set, the one change could be if Gordon really impresses during camp and pre-season he could start at SF over Harris.

What to watch for:
1. The veteran play of Channing Frye and Ben Gordon - both got expensive multi year contracts so will be expected to produce. As seen often during this offseason, teams overpaid for shooting which is what Frye and Gordon supply. Frye shoots 39% from deep over his career and Gordon is at 40%. Payton, Oladipo, Harris and Gordon are not good shooters so Orlando's perimeter scoring will depend on the play of these veterans.
2. Can Vucevic take that next step into all star status - over the 3 years in his career, he has increased his PER from 14 to 18 to 19 so this season you would expect him to crack 20. Will be the undisputed team's best player now Afflalo has gone so will be expected to step up.

Strength: Perimeter defense - Oladipo, Payton and A.Gordon are all defensive specialists so look for Orlando to defend the three ball pretty well.
Weakness: Outside shooting - finished 20th in the league in three pointers made last season.

Final thoughts: I like what they've done with this team, have got a great young core in Payton, Oladipo, Gordon, Harris and Vucevic. They still have major parts to figure out like who is going to shoot the ball but the talent is there. Can't see them being very good this season due to losing Afflalo but they will show some promising signs, particularly on the defensive end.

Predicted conference rank: 14th

[j959]

Cool Jayman!  8)
Did you do one of these for NFL?? (I need more 'education' on NFL & MLB  ;))

76ers - really interested to see how Noel goes this year. I read an article where the author predicted he could be ROY on his defensive talents alone.
Embiid really out for the whole season??
I don't mind their GM's tanking strategy, it is high-risk, high-reward but they weren't going anywhere anyway with mid-level talent so might as well 'blow-it-up' and go for the franchise player/s through the draft ...

Magic - i'm not sure I agree but have to admit I don't know much about Orlando - I don't quite get what they're doing, unless maybe they're searching for a team 'identity' - perhaps just growing the young core, with the new vets acquired to address the weakness you identified (outside shooting)??
Yep, Magic definitely overpaid for shooting it seems - Frye is serviceable as a 'stretch-4' but shooting is all he really brings - ie no defence, little rebounding imo so I'm glad Phoenix didn't match (can't remember if he was restricted or not??)
key query to me is if Oladipo really is a SG and if he can defend the bigger SGs he'll come up against?
i'm probably discounting Vucevic too much but has it been steady development from him, or a 'season out of the box'??

[Jay]

JAYMAN'S PRE-SEASON POWER RANKINGS

28. Utah Jazz

Last season's record: 25-57

Best player: Derrick Favors - 13.3points, 8.7rebounds, 1.5blocks, PER 19.01
Most would go with Hayward here because of the mammoth contract extension, but I'd take Favors over him. He's a better defender and more efficient scorer. He's the key building block for this team.

Off-season moves:
IN: Dante Exum (draft), Rodney Hood (draft), Trevor Booker (free agency), Steve Novak (trade)
OUT: Marvin Williams (free agency), Brandon Rush (free agency), Richard Jefferson (free agency)
They had a pretty good off-season really, snagging Rodney Hood at pick 23 was a major steal. Expect Hood to have more of an impact this season than pick 5, Dante Exum. Fortunately, they didn't overpay to keep around any of those veteran players and just let them walk and build around the young core.

Projected Starting 5:
PG: Trey Burke
SG: Alec Burks
SF: Gordon Hayward
PF: Derrick Favors
C: Enes Kanter
6th man: Rodney Hood
Could argue for Exum to be more featured in the rotation however I still see him as very raw. Alec Burks was pretty good last year so I'd let him start over Hood and the rest are pretty much set.

What to watch for:
1. Can Gordon Hayward live up to his 14 million dollar contract - Utah had no choice but to match Charlotte's 4 year, $63 million offer for Hayward, but they overpaid in the process. In first debut season of being the no.1 option, his numbers across the board dropped dramatically. FG% and 3pt% dropped, along with an increase in turnovers. His 3pt shooting was crazy, going from 42% two seasons ago to 30% last season. Think he's more suited to being a 2nd or 3rd option and will struggle until Utah find another quality scoring option.
2. Was Dante Exum worth pick #5 - The mysterious prospect from Australia, I really don't have much faith in him for this upcoming season. He didn't play much against other top prospects so is yet to prove whether he is NBA ready. However, there is huge potential there and with the right coaching and development, he'll be a gun. Don't expect him to be in the Rookie of the Year race, though.

Strength: Age of the core - The positive news for Utah is that their good bunch of players will have plenty of time to grow as a core. Trey Burke (21), Alec Burks (23), Dante Exum (19), Derrick Favors (23), Gordon Hayward (24), Rodney Hood (21), Enes Kanter (22) are the team's 7 best players and are all still young so with the right coaching should develop into a pretty solid team.

Weakness: Defense - finished second last in defensive rating last season giving up 111.3 points per 100 possessions. To improve, I'd highlight perimeter defense as the key. Trey Burke was awful defensively, when he was on the court they gave up more points per 100 possessions than the league-low Milwaukee Bucks.

Final thoughts: I like this Utah team, think they have a really bright future. As long as the GM doesn't make any desperate moves to win and just lets the young core develop on its own, they are in good hands. Should get another top 5 pick as they're in the mighty Western Conference.

Predicted conference rank: 15th