LaHug's Captains 2014 - Round 13

[LaHug]

If you really appreciate my work, please donate to a worthy cause: http://vic.cancercouncilfundraising.org.au/WilliamHuggett

In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If you have any requests, pommyadam will be taking them for you again.

New feature! Brought in last week and inspired by pommyadam's efforts, I'll give some quick numbers on the last 3 top players in their position against this week's opponent. This should help give a better idea of scoring potential against this week's opponent.

The facts:

Gibbs
Last 3: 139, 67, 113 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 123, 109, 112 (115 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 72, 99 (95 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Hawthorn: 135, 134, 128 (132 avg)

Murphy
Last 3: 84, 153, 72 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 24, 114, 97 (78 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 72, 74, 75 (74 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Hawthorn: 135, 134, 128 (132 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 109, 134, 98 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 106, 122, 109 (112 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 116, 106, 120 (114 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Richmond: 119, 131, 126 (125 avg)

Kennedy
Last 3: 103, 123, 139 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 92, 94, 121 (102 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 123, 123, 113 (120 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Port: 105, 117, 136 (119 avg)

Ebert
Last 3: 110, 66, 115 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 114, 123, 47 (95 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 57 (57 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Sydney: 146, 104, 132 (127 avg)

Cornes
Last 3: 94, 104, 86 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 68, 100, 102 (90 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 102, 100, 75 (92 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Sydney: 146, 104, 132 (127 avg)

Priddis
Last 3: 100, 143, 137 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 100, 133 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 143, 98, 97 (113 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Gold Coast: 106, 113, 115 (111 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 146, 98, 78 (107 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 89, 102, 132 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 80, 89, 102 (90 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. West Coast: 120, 133, 119 (124 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 102, 153, 147 (134 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 95, 125 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 153, 147, 141 (147 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. GWS: 132, 115, 127 (125 avg)

Treloar
Last 3: 130, 120, 118 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 97, 57 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 97, 57 (77 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Brisbane: 139, 153, 144 (145 avg)

Harvey
Last 3: 119, 94, 102 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 72, 89, 66 (76 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A
Last 3 mids/forwards vs. Adelaide: 113, 130, 143 (129 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 77, 94, 56 (76 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 109, 98, 72 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 168, 121, 84 (124 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. St Kilda: 138, 131, 127 (132 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 19, 104, 96 (93 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 136, 67, 27 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 96, 125, 132 (118 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. St Kilda: 138, 131, 127 (132 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 76, 126, 113 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 137, 64, 81 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 122, 129 (126 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Bulldogs: 128, 134, 116 (126 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 100, 113, 119 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 133, 133, 87 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 113, 122, 133 (123 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Bulldogs: 128, 134, 116 (126 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 114, 101, 79 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 137, 117, 96 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 97, 137, 109 (114 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Bulldogs: 128, 134, 116 (126 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 112, 129, 111 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 88, 86, 62 (79 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 129, 110, 111 (117 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Collingwood: 120, 109, 137 (122 avg)

The thoughts:

Gibbs
One week after lighting it up against the Cats on a Friday night, Gibbs comes across another big team in the Hawks. Hawthorn are out of form and still weakened, meaning they're giving up lots of tons (13 in the last 3 weeks) and big ones to leading mids. Gibbs has a great record against the Hawks and is the kinda player that could easily top score in this kind of game. A good unique pick if you're gutsy. Prediction - 120

Murphy
Besides when he broke his jaw last year, Murphy has a good record against the Hawks. Obviously, they're giving up lots of tons and they won't tag so Murph should be good. However, his last few at the MCG have been putrid and the likely return of a healthy McEvoy might make it slightly tougher on the Carlton mids. Prediction - 105

Barlow
Richmond are giving up plenty of tons but most aren't huge. Barlow is a perfect 5 for 5 against the Tigers in his career and his lowest ever score at the MCG is 98. However, his highest ever scores against Richmond and at the G are 122 and 120, respectively. What I'm saying is, he's a certain ton but nothing's pointing to a big score. Prediction - 115

Kennedy
8 straight tons, perfect at the SCG, and a decent record against Port. Despite Port not being too generous, Kennedy is in the form of his life and can't be ignored. Prediction - 120

Ebert
A bit up and down of late but Ebert is Port's leading DTer. His two games against Sydney since joining the Power have been comfortable tons but neither were at the SCG. Sydney's been reasonably generous with tons except for that Geelong game two weeks ago (we'll take that as an exception... Sydney won't beat Port by 110 points). Everything points to Ebert being serviceable. Prediction - 115

Cornes
A little out of form but pretty solid against the Swans with 4 straight tons before that 68. Still, I don't think his form is holding up enough to consider him. Prediction - 105

Priddis
The "certain big score" from last week managed to scrape a 100. Well, Priddis looks good to score another ton this week against the Suns. Gold Coast are giving up a few tons each game, none huge, and Priddis will surely take one of them. Prediction - 115

Ablett
GAJ is back but don't get too excited just yet. Contrary to a lot of top premiums, GAJ sucks against the Eagles. Since becoming a Sun, he averages 108 against them. He also hasn't taken advantage of the DT friendly Subiaco oval. The Eagles are giving up reasonable points, and GAJ should be good, but I wouldn't go straight back to him just yet. Prediction - 115

Rockliff
Don't worry about the 102 last week because Rocky's back at the Gabba where he's been absolutely ridiculous this year. GWS haven't been super DT friendly (except when Richmond annihilated them) but don't worry, Rocky will dominate. Prediction - 135

Treloar
Treloar's in fantastic form and is pretty decent against the Lions, considering that 57 was in his first year. The really exciting thing is that the Lions are giving up heaps of Fantasy points, even in wins. Whoever top scores for the Giants could be seeing a big score and it's really out of Treloar, Smith, and Ward. Adam's the inform guy so he's definitely worth a look if you have him. Prediction - 125

Harvey
In pretty decent form but absolutely awful against the Crows. If you were thinking of bringing him in, steer clear! Prediction - 75

Johnson
Way out of form and not great against the Saints. He's been known to go big and the Saints have given up some big scores, so there's a small chance he goes massive, but I wouldn't touch him until he shows some real form. Prediction - 100

Selwood
Not much better form than Stevie and, despite a solid 136 last year, Selwood's a prime target for a tag this week. He could be good but I'm not betting on it. Prediction - 105

Beams
Despite good form, a big one against the Dogs in the past, and great scoring at Etihad, I wouldn't go near Beams this week. He's almost certain to get a tag from either Wallis or Picken. The duo has utterly smashed Zorko, Rockliff, Ballantyne, Fyfe, and Ablett in the last three weeks. Prediction - 100

Pendlebury
Despite good form, some big ones against the Dogs in the past, and great scoring at Etihad, I wouldn't go near Pendlebury this week. He's almost certain to get a tag from either Wallis or Picken. The duo has utterly smashed Zorko, Rockliff, Ballantyne, Fyfe, and Ablett in the last three weeks. Prediction - 100

Swan
Well... someone has to score well against the Dogs. How about the guy with the better record against them, finally coming back into form (we hope), and unlikely to get tagged? Yeah, thought so. Prediction - 120

Liberatore
The Pies are being fairly stingy with their DT scores, offering only about 2 tons per game, but Libba's now had 6 straight 110+ scores so that shouldn't worry him. His best bet is to go head-to-head with Swan, a la Priddis a few weeks ago. I think he'll get that magic 110 again but only just. Prediction - 110

The verdict:

1.   Rockliff (135)
2.   Treloar (125)
3.   Kennedy (120)
4.   Swan (120)
5.   Gibbs (120)


Requests by pommyadam:

Jack Redden (by Japalenos)
Last 3: 120, 110, 89 (average 106)
Last 3 against GWS: 90, 99 (average 95)
Last 3 at Gabba: 120, 89, 58 (average 89)
Mids vs GWS: 132, 115, 127. An average of 125 since the bye, which is better than their season average of 120
Prediction: a 58 should be ringing alarm bells, particularly as it happened this year at the Gabba (rd 7 vs Sydney) - however that was in a trashing, and I'm not expecting GWS to win by 50+, and he seems to have improved since I've started doing captaincy options  :-X = 105

Callan Ward (by adez)
Last 3: 134, 63, 101 (average 99)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 52, 90, 86 (average 76)
Last 3 at Gabba: 52, 90, 55 (average 66)
Mids vs Brisbane: 139, 153, 126. An average of 146 since the bye, which is only slightly above their 2014 average of 140 (the highest in the comp, Mids vs Hawthorn are 2nd with 129)
Prediction: Ahh, the contender to Stanton's throne. Might as well throw the form book out the window, could be big, but could also be small. Thinking it'll be a bigger one, given that it's the Lions and it'll be a tight game - 110

Dyson Heppell (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 89, 82, 126 (average 99)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 147, 81 (average 114)
Last 3 at MCG: 82, 129, 120 (average 110)
Mids vs Melbourne: 114, 104, 107. An average of 111 over their last 3. BUT a season average of 127, and 9 scores over 110 to the leading mid (from 11 possible)
Prediction: Form is ehhh, vs Melbourne is unpredictable (that 147 came in the Dons winning by 600 last season), but does reasonably well at the MCG. BUT if he's getting tagged (as I think he probably will with Jobe out) then it's not looking good - 100

Levi Greenwood (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 109, 133, 146 (average 129)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 53, 59 (average 56)
Last 3 at AO: Never played
Mids vs Adelaide: A 116 average since their bye, 114 average for the season, and only 6 scores over 110 (only Carlton are lower)
Prediction: You're still reading? Mids don't do well against Adelaide (only 3 scores over 110 since rd3), a shocking record against Adelaide (granted stretching back 3 years). Form is the only thing going for him - 95

Isaac Smith (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 108 ,115, 108 (average 110)
Last 3 against Carlton: 40, 25, 70 (average 45)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 101, 92 (average 103)
Mids vs Carlton: 101, 153, 102. Average of 118 since the bye, but only 3 scores for the season over 120. Have given up at least a ton, but only 5/11 reaching 110.
Prediction: That average against Carlton  :-[ - moving on, no? Fine.... Looks in reasonable nick, but Carlton are too damn restrictive for a reasonable score, a poor history, but on the improve at the MCG. I don't think he'll be top Hawks mid scorer either - 90

Brent Stanton (by money)
Last 3: 88, 128, 85 (average 100)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 142, 105, 87 (average 111)
Last 3 at MCG: 128, 143, 106 (average 126)
Mids vs Melbourne: A last 3 average of 112, but pales in comparison to their season average of 127. Given up at least a ton, and 5 of them have gone on to 120+
Prediction: If there's one thing that's consistent about Stanton, is that he's up one week and down the next (being the case since rd6). So positive signs there, and numbers look good against the opposition and at the MCG, so it's hard to look past this one - 120


Top 5 requests:
Brent Stanton - 120
Callan Ward - 110
Jack Redden - 105
Dyson Heppell - 100
Levi Greenwood - 95
Isaac Smith - 90

[LaHug]

It feels very, very wrong not to have GAJ, Pendles, or Beams in my top 5...

[Ricochet]

Gibbs in the top 5! #AXVs


For some reason I really wanna back in SJ this week but its just a gut feeling, nothing to back it up.

[LaHug]

Gibbs in the top 5! #AXVs


For some reason I really wanna back in SJ this week but its just a gut feeling, nothing to back it up.

My gut made me want to put the C on GAJ last week but my brain said my gut was stupid so I went Beams instead. Always trust your gut ;)

[kilbluff1985]

Gibbs in the top 5! #AXVs


For some reason I really wanna back in SJ this week but its just a gut feeling, nothing to back it up.

My gut made me want to put the C on GAJ last week but my brain said my gut was stupid so I went Beams instead. Always trust your gut ;)

my gut just keeps saying nachos :o

Rocky C for me

[Ricochet]

Gibbs in the top 5! #AXVs


For some reason I really wanna back in SJ this week but its just a gut feeling, nothing to back it up.

My gut made me want to put the C on GAJ last week but my brain said my gut was stupid so I went Beams instead. Always trust your gut ;)

my gut just keeps saying nachos :o

Rocky C for me

your gut talks? :o :o

[kilbluff1985]

Gibbs in the top 5! #AXVs


For some reason I really wanna back in SJ this week but its just a gut feeling, nothing to back it up.

My gut made me want to put the C on GAJ last week but my brain said my gut was stupid so I went Beams instead. Always trust your gut ;)

my gut just keeps saying nachos :o

Rocky C for me

your gut talks? :o :o

yes it speaks when it's hungry not sure what language though sounds like a whale

[powersuperkents]

Bringing someone in for Watson this week & can't honestly decide...

I'm 95% leaning towards Pendlebury

However, Treloar just seems like he's going to do a Rocky/Cotchin & finish an elite season (Libby is another one who is capable)

I'm currently 95% Pendles, 5% Treloar (this week isn't helping because could cop a sub100 from Pendles on debut (of course he'll bounce back). Furthermore, Pendles seems blase, conversely Treloar is a cool asset for the dt & an uber unique (started him Gibbs, Hepp D & Redden all in draft, my first 2 picks were Beams & Cotchin. Ironically the latter one -pick no. 2- turned out to be my worst mid).

Can someone please advise me on which path to take??? I'm thinking this week is my only opportunity to bring in either as Langdon-> Stevie J is set for next week. (I already have Beams as well if that means anything)

[Jalapeno]

Awesome work again LH :)

Hard to look past rocky but could I please request Redden mate :)

[pommyadam]

psk - I'm personally liking the idea of Treloar, but that "rest" in rd8 has me concerned that it'll happen again come finals time

still, I'm liking it as a POD (but then the last time I did that.... Scooter in rd1)

[pommyadam]

REQUESTS

Jack Redden (by Japalenos)
Last 3: 120, 110, 89 (average 106)
Last 3 against GWS: 90, 99 (average 95)
Last 3 at Gabba: 120, 89, 58 (average 89)
Mids vs GWS: 132, 115, 127. An average of 125 since the bye, which is better than their season average of 120
Prediction: a 58 should be ringing alarm bells, particularly as it happened this year at the Gabba (rd 7 vs Sydney) - however that was in a trashing, and I'm not expecting GWS to win by 50+, and he seems to have improved since I've started doing captaincy options  :-X = 105

Callan Ward (by adez)
Last 3: 134, 63, 101 (average 99)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 52, 90, 86 (average 76)
Last 3 at Gabba: 52, 90, 55 (average 66)
Mids vs Brisbane: 139, 153, 126. An average of 146 since the bye, which is only slightly above their 2014 average of 140 (the highest in the comp, Mids vs Hawthorn are 2nd with 129)
Prediction: Ahh, the contender to Stanton's throne. Might as well throw the form book out the window, could be big, but could also be small. Thinking it'll be a bigger one, given that it's the Lions and it'll be a tight game - 110

Dyson Heppell (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 89, 82, 126 (average 99)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 147, 81 (average 114)
Last 3 at MCG: 82, 129, 120 (average 110)
Mids vs Melbourne: 114, 104, 107. An average of 111 over their last 3. BUT a season average of 127, and 9 scores over 110 to the leading mid (from 11 possible)
Prediction: Form is ehhh, vs Melbourne is unpredictable (that 147 came in the Dons winning by 600 last season), but does reasonably well at the MCG. BUT if he's getting tagged (as I think he probably will with Jobe out) then it's not looking good - 100

Levi Greenwood (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 109, 133, 146 (average 129)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 53, 59 (average 56)
Last 3 at AO: Never played
Mids vs Adelaide: A 116 average since their bye, 114 average for the season, and only 6 scores over 110 (only Carlton are lower)
Prediction: You're still reading? Mids don't do well against Adelaide (only 3 scores over 110 since rd3), a shocking record against Adelaide (granted stretching back 3 years). Form is the only thing going for him - 95

Isaac Smith (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 108 ,115, 108 (average 110)
Last 3 against Carlton: 40, 25, 70 (average 45)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 101, 92 (average 103)
Mids vs Carlton: 101, 153, 102. Average of 118 since the bye, but only 3 scores for the season over 120. Have given up at least a ton, but only 5/11 reaching 110.
Prediction: That average against Carlton  :-[ - moving on, no? Fine.... Looks in reasonable nick, but Carlton are too damn restrictive for a reasonable score, a poor history, but on the improve at the MCG. I don't think he'll be top Hawks mid scorer either - 90

Brent Stanton (by money)
Last 3: 88, 128, 85 (average 100)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 142, 105, 87 (average 111)
Last 3 at MCG: 128, 143, 106 (average 126)
Mids vs Melbourne: A last 3 average of 112, but pales in comparison to their season average of 127. Given up at least a ton, and 5 of them have gone on to 120+
Prediction: If there's one thing that's consistent about Stanton, is that he's up one week and down the next (being the case since rd6). So positive signs there, and numbers look good against the opposition and at the MCG, so it's hard to look past this one - 120

Andrew Swallow (by smoothM24)
Last 3: 111, 102, 72 (average 95)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 104, 72, 138 (average 105)
Last 3 at AO: Never played
Mids vs Adelaide: Average of 116 since the bye. Only one score over 120 since rd3. Miserly, but consistent too (9/11 tons and 6/11 over 110)
Prediction: Looks to be getting back to full fitness. Shame it's up against Adelaide though, as they are miserly. PRobably worth bringing in this week, but I'd look elsewhere for captaincy - 109


Top 5 requests:
Brent Stanton - 120
Callan Ward - 110
Andrew Swallow - 109
Jack Redden - 105
Dyson Heppell - 100
Levi Greenwood - 95
Isaac Smith - 90

[ADEZ]

Great again! Tough choice for me this week unless I bring in one of Rocky or JPK

Could I request Ward.  Cheers

[Dale S]

Swanny is skippering my squad this week. Will have a feast on a Sunday Arvo with all the attention going to Beams and Pendles.

[jvalles69]

Hmmm...Lions are probably looking at GWS as easy beats, any chance Rocky straight tags Ward?  ???

[powersuperkents]

psk - I'm personally liking the idea of Treloar, but that "rest" in rd8 has me concerned that it'll happen again come finals time

still, I'm liking it as a POD (but then the last time I did that.... Scooter in rd1)

Yeah it's a tough decision, also Treloar may be in form now, however, we can't be sure of the remainder of his season. Pendlebury is a guaranteed +110. If I skip on Pendles and Treloar ends the season with a 90's average (would consist of a second half average in the 80's) it would be a terrible decision. High Risk v. Reward on Treloar. I wish that Watson didn't get injured. Would have avoided all this trouble (& non-progressive trading week) if I could have just kept him, & he was playing great as well.