LaHug's Captains 2014 - Round 12 - Happy Birthday, Liz!

[LaHug]

If you really appreciate my work, please donate to a worthy cause: http://vic.cancercouncilfundraising.org.au/WilliamHuggett

Thanks heaps to pommyadam for doing this last week. My research project is done and submitted (YAY!) so I'm back!

In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If you have any requests, pommyadam will be taking them for you again.

New feature! From this week, inspired by pommyadam's efforts, I'll give some quick numbers on the last 3 top players in their position against this week's opponent. This should help give a better idea of scoring potential against this week's opponent.

The facts:

Selwood
Last 3: 104, 96, 138 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 66, 122, 122 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 98, 101, 84 (94 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Carlton: 153, 102, 106 (120 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 94, 56, 126 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 92, 60, 95 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 112, 105, 141 (119 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Carlton: 153, 102, 106 (120 avg)

Murphy
Last 3: 153, 72, 120 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 111, 121, 112 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 120, 146, 141 (136 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Geelong: 133, 146, 109 (129 avg)

Priddis
Last 3: 143, 137, 98 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 106, 93, 89 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 132, 139, 115 (129 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Hawthorn: 137, 128, 143 (136 avg)

Cornes
Last 3: 104, 86, 106 (99 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 97, 89, 79 (88 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 86, 106, 119 (104 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. St Kilda: 126, 127, 145 (133 avg)

Ebert
Last 3: 66, 115, 109 (97 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 83, 125, 73 (94 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 115, 109, 112 (112 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. St Kilda: 126, 127, 145 (133 avg)

Montagna
Last 3: 102, 53, 91 (82 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 140, 72, 78 (97 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A
Last 3 mids vs. Port: 117, 136, 130 (128 avg)

Liberatore
Last 3: 129, 111, 146 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 89, 120, 91 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 129, 110, 111 (117 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Brisbane: 153, 144, 149 (149 avg)

Minson
Last 3: 95, 99, 112 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 90, 92, 89 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 95, 71, 74 (80 avg)
Last 3 rucks vs. Brisbane: 105, 91, 113 (103 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 153, 147, 141 (147 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 139, 114, 43 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 83, 117, 114 (105 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Brisbane: 134, 116, 117 (122 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 114, 116, 149 (126 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 54, 91 (73 avg)
Last 3 at Showground: 91 (91 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. GWS: 115, 127, 129 (124 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 98, 78, 127 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 84, 152, 23 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 78, 122, 132 (111 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Sydney: 104, 132, 91 (109 avg)

JP Kennedy
Last 3: 123, 139, 139 (134 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 91, 99, 66 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 99, 66 (83 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Gold Coast: 113, 115, 120 (116 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 134, 98, 88 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 97, 118, 90 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 98, 80, 130 (103 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Adelaide: 130, 143, 107 (127 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 86, 102, 109 (99 avg)
Last 3 against North: 100, 101, 88 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 100, 78 (98 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. North: 143, 155, 110 (136 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 126, 113, 107 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 155, 96, 91 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 107, 136 (119 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Melbourne: 104, 117, 146 (122 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 113, 119, 101 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 117, 104, 136 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 119, 91, 107 (106 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Melbourne: 104, 117, 146 (122 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 101, 79, 102 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 130, 142, 150 (141 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 101, 102, 122 (108 avg)
Last 3 mids vs. Melbourne: 104, 117, 146 (122 avg)

The thoughts:

Selwood
In pretty average form at the moment and statistically very poor at Etihad. Last year, he was destroyed by a Carrazzo tag. Before that, he's been very solid against the Blues. Before last week, the Blues were really limiting scoring against them but Rockliff, Redden, and Zorko all had a field day, racking up the fantasy points. I don't think the opponent will be a problem but the ground and current form will stop things being big. Prediction - 105

Johnson
Great at Etihad last year but that's about where it stops for Stevie J this week. His form is down and his record against the Blues is awful. 9 career games for a single ton back in 2008. He'll have to bounce back soon but I wouldn't bet on this being the week. Prediction - 85

Murphy
Very inconsistent this year but, when he's been big, he's been huge! Three straight big tons at Etihad coupled with three straight against the Cats (his second best career team) makes him tantalising this week. On top of all this, the Cats have given up huge scores the last two weeks. Last week, they gave up 8 tons (I'm sure the Blues won't match Sydney) with the top 4 mids all comfortably breaking 120. The Roos had 3 tons against them the week before with Greenwood's 146 a highlight. Every chance he goes big. Prediction - 120

Priddis
Despite the last few years being less impressive, Hawthorn are Priddis' second favourite team to play. His form right now is amazing. All three of his games in Launceston have also been great! The icing on the cake is that the weakened Hawthorn outfit is giving up a lot of tons at the moment. 6 last week (incl. 143, 134, 125, 120), 2 the week before (incl. 128), and 7 before that (incl. 143, 139, 121) mean that it is very likely Priddis will go big. Prediction - 125

Cornes
St Kilda have been very generous with their tons recently but that's all Cornes has going for him. His recent form has been way down (even at home) and he's no good against the Saints. Prediction - 95

Ebert
Despite last week's shocker, he's still in better form than Cornes and probably the most likely to take advantage of St Kilda's generosity. Still enjoying Adelaide Oval too and is a perfect 5/5 there. Prediction - 110

Montagna
Been crap since I brought him in (sorry guys) and doesn't look likely to turn it around this week. The Power only gave up the one ton against the Dees and I'd expect something similar this week. It could go to Joey but Hayes is in good form right now so could take it himself. Prediction - 100

Liberatore
5 straight scores of 110+, vs. Brisbane who are his second favourite team, at Etihad where he's been great. What more do you need to realise that Libba is a legitimate pick this week? How about the ridiculous scores the Lions are giving up?!? In the last three weeks, the Lions have given up 153 to Murphy, 144 to Harvey, and 149 to Watson. Holy moly! Prediction - 135

Minson
Big Will is in good form but what I really want to point out is that the Lions are pretty much ruckless and the opposition are loving it. Warnock managed a ton against them last week and Minson is better. Also, for SuperCoachers out there, the hitouts to advantage may be very, very high. Prediction - 110

Rockliff
Let me start by saying that this is the toughest analysis I've had to do all year. The pros are obvious: three ridiculous games in a row, great record against the Dogs (43 was an entire game of full forward... he got 141 earlier that year), no trouble with Etihad, and the Dogs have given up plenty of good scores. The con might be harder to see from the raw numbers but it's Liam Picken. His last three victims have been Ballantyne (66), Ablett (78), Jones (69). That's some serious tagging! Rocky overcame the Carrazzo tag last week and is clearly in his best ever form but I just can't see another 140+ with Picken on him. On the plus side, he racks up so many points from tackles that he's halfway to a ton before you add possessions. Should be great. Prediction - 125

Watson
Back in some good form but is horrible against the Giants. They haven't been giving up massive scores either. The Bombers should smash them though meaning a ton is a practical certainty. Prediction - 110

Ablett
Let's look at the pros: you can never keep GAJ down forever. Ok... that's it... The Swans are smashing the competition right now and, with the exception of the Essendon game, they're being super stingy with fantasy points. Ablett looks injured, or at least very sore from being paid so much attention. Although the Swans don't tag, the problem opposing players usually have is getting the ball out of the opposition's hands. GAJ will get the ball, don't get me wrong, but I don't think he'll go big. Prediction - 110
(Note: My gut says one of the next 2 or 3 weeks will be where he bounces back with a 150+ so, if you're a gambling man, pick GAJ this week.)

JP Kennedy
Is JPK finally DT relevant? 7 straight tons says yes. His form is through the roof and he's gotta be favourite to runner up in the Brownlow. Disturbingly low ownership in all three games for his current form and one I'd consider bringing in to be unique. The Suns are giving up tons and the Swans will likely beat them convincingly, judging on recent performances. Look for JPK to have another fun day on the park. Prediction - 125

Barlow
Three scores of 130+ and three under the ton. Barlow's been a bit up and down (injury didn't help) but his ups are more than handy. Adelaide are giving up some nice scores but it's still too hard to know what you'll get with Barlow. I'll shoot down the middle to be safe. Prediction - 115

Cotchin
The only thing going for Cotch this week is North's generosity (I see Ellis and Jackson taking the big scores though because, frankly, they're the only Tigers that look like they give a damn). Otherwise, Cotch is horribly out of form and doesn't look like the leader we know he is - in fact, he looks afraid of the ball! If I had a spare trade, I'd be off him. Prediction - 90

Beams
First thing to note, for the following three Pies, is that the Dees look stingier than they actually are because Port and Richmond have been poor in the last two weeks. Don't get me wrong, the Dees look pretty decent, but the Pies on the Queen's Birthday are a completely different outfit. It could get ugly and, if it does, there'll be lots of points on offer. Now, onto Beams, he destroyed the Dees last year and is the most in-form Magpie. He's your best bet to go big again at the G. Prediction - 125

Pendlebury
See above for the note about the Dees but, basically, Pendles is your second best bet to have fun with them. Prediction - 120

Swan
For those that have him, you'd better hope the week off has done wonders (and that he actually plays this week). His record against the Dees is great and he's amazing at the MCG when in form. If he's back, there's every chance he top scores for the round. However, first he has to prove to me that he's back. Prediction - 115

The verdict:

1.   Liberatore (135)
2.   Rockliff (125)
3.   Beams (125)
4.   JP Kennedy (125)
5.   Priddis (125)

[LaHug]

Sorry it took so long, guys! Got caught up with tutoring and basketball. Also took a bit longer with a new stat (thanks PA) and a bit more in-depth analysis (anything to put off studying).

Hope you enjoy!

[TomK]

Great work LaHug. Bringing in Rocky this week and he gets the C.

[kilbluff1985]

nice job mate

Worth mentioning Minson might only be up against  Stefan Martin or Smith so i expect Minson to dominate so Libba is a great choice

[Capper]

Who is LIz??

[Bill Manspeaker]

bugger it, I'm going Rockliff this week! first time the C hasn't been on Ablett is a long time  :o (besides GC bye week)

EDIT: and this will be Rocky's first game in my team, so... if he fails, my bad :P

[LaHug]

Who is LIz??

The Queen!

nice job mate

Worth mentioning Minson might only be up against  Stefan Martin or Smith so i expect Minson to dominate so Libba is a great choice

Yeah. If I had him, I'd make him C. However, I do not...

[Capper]

Who is LIz??

The Queen!

your queen!!

[LaHug]

Who is LIz??

The Queen!

your queen!!

Well... the Commonwealth's queen.......

[GoLions]

May I request my boy Jacky Redden? Great stuff btw Huggy :)

[Money]

Work LH!! could I request Stanton please!

[Dudge]

Great work LH :)

[pommyadam]

not gonna lie, it was only because it was North that I requested Cotchin

anyways.... as agreed to in last week's posts, I'm back to
REQUESTS

top 5 requests:
Adam Treloar - 120
Kade Simpson - 115
Brendon Goddard - 115
Rory Sloane - 110
Boomer - 110
Jack Redden - 110


Jack Redden (by GoLions16)
Last 3: 120, 110, 89 (average 106)
Last 3 against WB: 79, 80, 104 (average 87)
Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 119, 97 (average 109)
Mids vs WB: Average of 120 to the leading mid over the last 6 rounds
Prediction: Can't see the leading mid being Redden, but he may do pretty well in a close game racking up those tackles - 110

Brent Stanton (by Money)
Last 3: 128, 85, 107 (average 107)
Last 3 against GWS: 80, 51, 93 (average 75)
Last 3 at Showground: 93
Mids vs GWS: Average 128 since rd4, with a low of 115
Prediction: Ahhh Mr Consistent, with up down up down since rd6. Never tonned up against GWS, must be all those taggers, and if the form guide says anything, it's a poor one here - 70

Boomer (by Chelskiman)
Last 3: 94, 102, 144 (average 113)
Last 3 against Richmond: 117, 106, 129 (average 117)
Last 3 at Etihad: 144, 77, 97 (average 106)
Fwds vs Richmond: An average of 112 since their bye, with a low of 89 (but against a GWS side that scored 44, did you really expect much?)
Prediction: Does pretty well against Richmond, pretty good form, although that etihad form is indifferent - also good form against those teams that are poor (118 vs WB, and 144 vs Brisbane) which should bode well for him this week (sorry LaHug) - 110

Kade Simpson (by jvalles69)
Last 3: 104, 143, 145 (average 131)
Last 3 against Geelong: 51, 112, 112 (average 92)
Last 3 at Etihad: 145, 105, 94 (average 115)
vs Geelong: Giving up some big scores recently (129 since the bye, 117 season average)
Prediction: that 51 came in a forward tag on Mackie (basically the whole Carlton team was tagging that day) - in ripper form, does well at Docklands, Geelong are starting to become more porous, and does well against Geelong - 115

Dom Tyson (by alka)
Last 3: 117, 112, 117 (average 115)
Last 3 against Collingwood: NEVER PLAYED
Last 3 at MCG: 112, 117, 66 (average 98)
Mids vs Collingwood: Average of 127 since the bye, but a season average of 115
Prediction: Urrgh, I hate calling rookie players.... Clearly in form, and does have good history at the MCG, but Collingwood are pretty restrictive - 90

Rory Sloane (by luvfooty)
Last 3: 113, 74, 104 (average 97)
Last 3 against Freo: 112, 112, 98 (average 107)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 86, 112, 150 (average 116)
Mids vs Freo: Season average of 123, but pumps up to 130 over the last 3 weeks.
Prediction: Slight inflation here due to that 150, and should score pretty well. But not in form, and can't back him - 110

Nat Fyfe(by luvfooty)
Last 3: 65, 109, 130 (average 101)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 128, 84, 85 (average 99)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 109, 106, 119 (average 111)
Mids vs Adelaide: THE STINGIEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE! and only a 118 average over the last 3
Prediction: Hey Kerridge = Pendles 101, Murphy 72 and Gaj 98 being his most recent victims. I think he's adding Fyfe to that list - 95

Callan Ward (by ////)
Last 3: 134, 63, 101 (average 99)
Last 3 against Essendon: 81, 61, 90 (average 77)
Last 3 at Showground: 63, 119, 111 (average 98)
Mids vs Essendon: Average 130 over the last 3, 130 over the last 6, but overall season average of 116
Prediction:  Doesn't like playing Essendon, and too inconsistent to score with regularity (has a 160, but 2 scores under 60) - can't see it being a high one, despite doing reasonably well at showground (until Richmond arrived) - 95

Dyson Heppell (by colmullett)
Last 3: 82, 126, 127 (average 112)
Last 3 vs GWS: 102
Last 3 at Showground: 102
Mids vs GWS: Last 3 average of 124, last 5 average of 122
Prediction: Looks to be on the slide, and not a lot of history to go on (1 game vs GWS) which means that he's a smoky at best - 100

Adam Treloar (by NigeyS)
Last 3: 120, 118, 93 (average 110)
Last 3 against Essendon: 72, 109, 119 (average 100)
Last 3 at Showground: 118, 159, 124 (average 134)
Mids vs Essendon: An average of 130 over the last 6 rounds, with a high of 147
Prediction: Let me in on this! LOVES the venue, does pretty well against the opposition, and on the improve score wise - 120

Brendon Goddard (by powersuperkents)
Last 3: 114, 117, 126 (average 119)
Last 3 vs GWS: 83, 114, 116 (average 104)
Last 3 at Showground: 83
Mids vs GWS: An average of 124 to the leading mid (and 4 tons) over the last 3 rounds
Prediction: Looks pretty consistent of a 110, but is that showground appearance enough to put you off? Showground this year has also been interesting, with tonless in wins (vs Sydney and Dees) but giving up 7 tons against Richmond. Still, the consistency picture continues to be painted - 115

Dean Cox (by pommyadam)
Last 3: 79, 113, 122 (average 105)
Last 3 vs Hawthorn: 123, 88, 79 (average 97)
Last 3 at Aurora: 79, 138, 90 (average 102)
Rucks vs Hawthorn: In a few words, not good (only vs Freo and vs WC is harder) BUT a 90 average over the last 2 is bettered only by vs Brisbane & North (shows how out of form Goldy is)
Prediction: A good record at Aurora, and a weakened ruckline for Hawthorn should bode well for good scoring, but can't tip him as a captaincy option - 105

[Ricochet]

Think I'm going to back Beams in again this week.

[Flame]

Great work Huggy Bear- Good to have you back! Good to see you have Libba No 1- He's been one of my best trades, just not sure if I have the balls to put him skipper. Will stick with my man Beams I think!