To Ablett or not to Ablett?

[bjrouse]

I think from a supercoach point of view. Joel Selwood will be winning some of the hard ball get possessions that Ablett would have got last year. I don't believe he will average the 132 he did last year...

but there is noone really close to him, if he does play some average weeks to drop the people who pick him up round 4-5 will be laughing.

If he scores like he has in his last 3 and people have him as the captain, those people that plan on picking him up in round 4-5 will be spewing

[brownmans muffins]

I've stayed away from him last year & all through PS.
I've now succumbed after watching the NAB Cup final + the other Cats games.
He's too good - on another level and looks like a man playing with boys - there's only a handful of players in that class and they're worth every SC penny.
If you're playing the full SC season (i.e. not waiting until head-to-head to finalise) it could be tough to have a crack at top point scoring without him. Just means you need to be smart with your value picks & rookies. You'll also probably start 1 more rookie than you want.

[Bo]

If you dont pick him, prepare to lose to people who do. This shouldn't even be up for debate.

[locknload]

There is a good reason why you shouldn't get Ablett. He is just way too expensive. If you have a look at the NAB final he wasn't the highest scoring midfielder out on the park, that was J Selwood who I should add is 200,000 cheaper than Ablett.  I would also argue that through the run home to the finals last year Ablett wasn't averaging 130, it was
R22 107 , R21 83, R20 155 , R19 84
R16 + R17 + R18 DNP (I'm not sure if the price change takes into account a DNP or not but to quote Bill Lawry "thats really f***ed his average now")
Not counting those games he didn't play that is an average of 107.25.

Another point I would like to mention is Ablett compared to Bartel. If both were captains you are looking at 264 and 232 respectively going by there 2008 averages. With the approximately 100,000 you are saving by not having Ablett don't you think you could make up those 32 points with a higher caliber player elsewhere? Especially when you could have a 450,000 player opposed to a 350,000 player.

Also it should be said all those people that had him last year, we bought Ablett for 612,000 at the start of the season, he wasn't the highest priced player (I think that was Bartel at 675,000) so just because of his large price tag it doesn't neccesarily mean he will lead the league in SC points. Also that year most people couldn't believe Ablett had gotten better. Do you really think he can top that? Are we gonna see him rising up to 750,000??

My final point is treating this game as you would treat stocks. To play the stock market and win, you wouldn't really buy a stock at it's highest where the only place it will go is down. You would rather pick a stock with a little room for improvement. Continuing the stock analogy why would you want to tie all your money up in the one asset. To quote Wu Tang Financial "you gotta diversify your bonds ni**a".

I hope this helps with wether to pick up Ablett or not, there is no question he is a gun but I would be looking elsewhere for my midfielders. (I'm also gonna put this out there and say he won't lead the competition in SC points this year someone else will so do you reeeally want to spend 700,000+ on him?)

[Bo]

This game isn't a stockmarket because you dont have infinite trades. If you did then waiting for ablett to go down would make sense, but since it isn't you either pick him early or probably dont pick him at all.

Counting games where he is injured (skewing the stats to prove a point) is misleading. Read it like this, yup. he was injured, and still destroyed everyone else.

By round 13, Ablett was still averaging 145+.

Round 1-13
127
148
115
115
254
62      (Crowley)
164
127
157
180
161
169

I've had enough with this topic. Dont take him if you dont want him. You say he averaged 107 whilst returning from injury ?

Final word. I didn't have him at all last year, and i regretted it almost every week.

[Banzai-]

Id just like to adress a few of the points made by locknload:

"If you have a look at the NAB final he wasn't the highest scoring midfielder out on the park, that was J Selwood who I should add is 200,000 cheaper than Ablett."

This is slightly misleading isnt it? Ablett scored 156, who cares that it wasnt the highest? I'll take Ablett scoring 156 but missing BOG any day of the week.

"If both were captains you are looking at 264 and 232 respectively going by there 2008 averages. With the approximately 100,000 you are saving by not having Ablett don't you think you could make up those 32 points with a higher caliber player elsewhere?"

Not really, no.  The way the salaries work, the 90k you save translates as more like 16 points per game.  Sure maybe with the extra 90k you can find some better choices, getting that 16 a bit higher, but surely its just easier to have it doubled and take full advantage of the captains rule?

"My final point is treating this game as you would treat stocks. To play the stock market and win, you wouldn't really buy a stock at it's highest where the only place it will go is down. You would rather pick a stock with a little room for improvement."

Two big differences: Finite amount of trades, and 'aim of the game'.  The first speaks for itself, but what I mean for the second is that the aim of this game (at least for most I think?) is to maximise their score, not their team value.  Trading the best player in the league in at round 19 is not the same as having him from round 1.

"(I'm also gonna put this out there and say he won't lead the competition in SC points this year someone else will so do you reeeally want to spend 700,000+ on him?)"

This is perfectly acceptable, and IMO the only real reason not to take Ablett.  Supercoach is a competition of judging the players abilities, and whether they are better or worse than common perception, and if you personally dont think Ablett will be the best for the year, obviously spending 700k on him is madness.

But people, dont buy into all these justifications for cutting him just because he's expensive. He's the best player in the league (by a margin IMO), and should clearly lead the SC scoring, and whether you agree with that last statement or not should be all you use in deciding whether to start him or not.

[wormburner09]

Ablett wont drop too much in price, id be surprised if he entered the high 500s, Hes worth the risk coz even his bad games are decent scoring coz he uses it so well even if he only has 20 possessions