WXV Mid-Season

[ossie85]

Hi all!

So how are we all shaping at roughly the half way mark?

IF every team scores exactly there average for the remainder of the season, the final ladder will be:

Position   Name   Wins   Losses
1   Buenos Aires Armadillos   17   0
2   Mexico City Suns   16   1
3   Dublin Destroyers   13   4
4   Sao Paulo Pumas   13   4
5   Seoul Magpies   11   6
6   Moscow Spetsnaz   10   7
7   Paris Nice Lyon Reindeers   10   7
8   Cairo Sands   9   8
9   Berlin Brewers   9   8
10   Toronto Wolves   9   8
11   London Royals   7   10
12   Cape Town Cobras   7   10
13   Tokyo Samurai   5   12
14   New York Revolution   5   12
15   Pacific Islanders   4   13
16   New Delhi Tigers   4   13
17   Beijing Thunder   3   14
18   Wellington Warriors   1   16

Also, based on season averages, the following ranks each team's draw over the last 9 rounds from easiest to hardest:

1   Sao Paulo Pumas
2   Moscow Spetsnaz
3   Toronto Wolves
4   Mexico City Suns
5   Berlin Brewers
6   London Royals
7   Dublin Destroyers
8   Buenos Aires Armadillos
9   Wellington Warriors
10   Cape Town Cobras
11   Paris Nice Lyon Reindeers
12   Seoul Magpies
13   New Delhi Tigers
14   New York Revolution
15   Tokyo Samurai
16   Pacific Islanders
17   Cairo Sands
18   Beijing Thunder

So the Pumas have the easiest draw for the rest of the year :/ Which is a little scary. Shouldn't get too comfortable, as its main top 4 competition Moscow is only marginally behind at 2nd. Toronto's season has hope of recovery, while Cairo would be getting very nervous. Beijing have some tough times ahead also...

[kilbluff1985]

 :'( probably going to have another top 5 pick to play with

[ossie85]

Beijing

Current position: 17th, 2-6

Best Win: Round 4 victory over Seoul the highlight, with the Magpies a shot at the finals this year, this showed Beijing's increased competitiveness this year.

Worst Loss: Round 5 loss to Toronto, not so much the loss, but the way they lost - it was the Thunder of old.

The story: Matt Kreuzer's injury and Harry Taylor's poor form has hurt Thunder this year, but huge positives coming from Oli Wines, Cale Hooker and James Aish.

Remaining fixture: Last 9 matches features games against 3 of the top 4, and only 1 of the bottom 4. New Delhi's its best chance to notch a win in Round 14, and maybe New York in Round 10, but I can't see Beijing winning more than 4 games.

Q/Toga - what are your thoughts?

[ossie85]

Berlin

Current position: 7th, 4-4

Best Win: Round 8 victory over Beijing - it was a match they were always expected to win, but it was its first 150 score of the year, and topped off a good month which demonstrated how they made a Prelim last year.

Worst Loss: Round 4 loss to Cape Town was an 8-point match, and this loss could prove the difference between making the finals and not. The week before they only put up 122 against Sao Paulo, but it was Cape Town that hurts.

The story: Berlin's depth has plummeted this year with injuries to Colin Garland, Jack Steven, Mark Jamar, Daniel Wells, Jack Trengove and Brad Crouch really hurting, while Mitch Clark retired before pulling on Berlin colours. But Berlin have managed to cover them all, with Nat Fyfe and Daniel Jackson proving they are stars.

Remaining fixture: Dublin looms large in Round 10, while matches against PNL, Cairo, Seoul, Tokyo and Moscow will determine where Berlin will finish. Should get at least 3 wins easy, and winning half of the remaining would get to 10-7 and that should be enough for finals.

[ossie85]

Buenos Aires

Current position: 1st, 8-0

Best Win: Round 7 against Mexico City - this is the kind of match that Buenos Aires would have let slip in the past. But not only did they win, they won well! And are deserving premiership favourites.

Worst Loss: No losses! Though they only scraped victories over Toronto and New York which could be counted a bit lucky.

The story: Buenos Aires have fallen down at the Prelim stages in both seasons so far, with 2013 being a particularly harsh match losing after the final siren had gone. They are determined to take the flag this year, with Steve Johnson and Matt Boyd leading the charge. No Brad Sewell and a drop of form for Swan and Cox are minor causes of concern.

Remaining fixture: The two biggest chances of a loss come against Dublin in Round 11 and Sao Paulo in Round 17, but with 3 matches to come against the bottom 4 also, even a worse case scenario basically seems them guaranteed top 4. I think 1st place, if not 2nd, the likely outcome here.

[Nige]

I was really keen to get a number of wins on the board early because of our tough-ish run home. Hopefully a fully fit side and some players regaining form can steer the ship in the right direction.

[roo boys!]

Good to see the draw finally opening up for us. Time to get all those members back that left after the winless start to the year?

[Purple 77]

Great work btw oz  8)

[CrowsFan]

Loving your work os! Also loving that I have supposedly got the easiest back 9 :)

[ossie85]

Cairo

Current position: 11th, 3-5

Best Win: Cairo have not yet won a match against a top 10 side this year, but the Round 3 score of 166 against a plucky Tokyo was Cairo's most impressive win - at this point in time they were averaging 158 over the first 3 rounds.

Worst Loss: No contest - the Round 6 loss to Wellington was disastrous. Managing only 121, as the previously winless Warriors edged them in New Zealand. This loss is a catastrophe for Cairo.

The story: Cairo came out firing - an extremely close loss to Dublin first up, followed by two mammoth 160+ scores in succession had many tipping Cairo as a top 4 - and therefore a flag - fancy. Since then however, they have managed just the 1 win (against struggler Pacific) and averaged 131.8. Shane Mumford's loss has been huge, and they will be desperate for him to return.

Remaining fixture: Unfortunately, its a disastrous last 9 rounds. With 5 top 7 teams remaining, and only 1 bottom 4 team. If Cairo are good enough, they can make, as they still have a strong percentage.

[Nige]

Summed up well.

I'm confident we can battle on and fight our way into the 8 and play finals. Just gotta pray for a bit of luck and hope things go our way.

[ossie85]

Cape Town

Current position: 10th, 4-4

Best Win: Round 8 victory of rival Cairo Sands was a huge result, and evened the ledger for Cape Town.

Worst Loss: The round 6 loss against New Delhi was clearly the most costly, though a loss to New York and a missed opportunity against Dublin also rates.

The story: Cape Town have been up-and-down all year, and seem far from the side that made the finals the last 2 years. The big story was a couple of coaching infringements that saw them lose a point. Still hope though, at a 4-4, and the return of ruckman Zac Smith.

Remaining fixture: Have a couple of big matches to come against Mexico City and Sao Paulo, challenging matches against Seoul, London, Toronto, Moscow and PNL, and matches they should win against Wellington and Pacific. It is a tough draw, but if they are good enough, they can do it.

[ossie85]

Dublin

Current position: 3rd, 6-2

Best Win: Scoring 174 against the reigning premier Sao Paulo really underlined how serious a flag threat this team is!

Worst Loss: Putting down the Round 4 loss to Tokyo as a freak occurrence, but yet another round 6 loss to rival London has to be Dublin's biggest disappointment - its lowest score, and still haven't taken home the British Isles Cup.

The story: Dublin have been strong for the vast majority of the year, but let slip 2 games against Tokyo and London that had people questioning its premiership potential. However, those questions where answered over the last 2 weeks with 160+ scores against Toronto and Sao Paulo. They are the real deal.

Remaining fixture: Top 4 looks likely, but where in that top 4 is the question! They have Round 11 and 15 matches against Buenos Aires and Mexico City which should decide that, with some other potentially tough matches scattered around also. The last 2 rounds of the year are against New Delhi and Pacific, so by Round 15 we'll likely know where Dublin will be at.

[ossie85]

London

Current position: 9th, 4-4

Best Win: Came into Round 6 at 1-4 and massive underdogs against premiership favourite and rival Dublin. But took home its 3rd British Cup, with its highest score of the year.

Worst Loss: Came out of the gates stuttering, only managing 117 against Berlin in Round 1. A missed opportunity as Berlin weren't that impressive that week.

The story: London lost its first 3 games with an average of only 122.7, but the last five weeks they have improved the team's average up to 136 and with a 4-1 record. London do not have the most talented list, but hats off to players like Dane Rampe and Brandon Matera who looks to be improving fast. London have yet to play a ruck all year, but Bellchambers looks to be back from injury for Round 9.

Remaining fixture: The next 5 weeks will decide London's season - they take on Cairo, Seoul, Wellington, Pacific and Cape Town. Think they need to win at least 4 of those to make the finals, that will bring them to 8-5. The next three rounds are tough taking on Mexico City, Toronto and Sao Paulo, before finishing against Beijing. It will tough to make the finals, but if they somehow win 2 of its last four 10-7 would probably be enough for the finals.

[ossie85]

Mexico City

Current position: 2nd, 7-1

Best Win: Gotta a little bit of revenge against Sao Paulo in Round 1, comfortably winning by 19 points, as new coach JROO8 showed straight away the Suns are still a force.

Worst Loss: Only the one! But it was a big one, Mexico City registered its lowest score of the year against Buenos Aires to lose hold of the minor premiership.

The story: Mexico City are boringly great! Very hard to defeat in any round, and this year is no different. They will cruise to a top 4 spot.

Remaining fixture: The last 9 rounds they play only 2 sides currently in the top 8 - PNL and Dublin. The match against Dublin could decide whether they secure a home qualifying final or not, but really, its hard to see the Suns doing any worse than 7-2 over the last 9 rounds, which would bring them to 14-3.