LaHug's Captains - Round 9 2014 - Bye Numero Duo

[LaHug]

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In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask! I'll do my best to get to all requests but I won't make any promises.

We have a partial lockout this week for the Adelaide vs. Collingwood game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Crows or Pies as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain. Anyone with a bye will do.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain! (Less important this week with the bye.)

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision! (Again, less important with the bye.)

Should I or shouldn't I:

If Dangerfield was your VC, lock in his 131. Otherwise, run with Rocky/Ellis/GAJ.

The facts:

Dangerfield
Last 3: 101, 103, 149 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 70, 67, 50 (62 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 101, 149, 83 (111 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 107, 136, 131 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 80, 132, 88 (100 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A

Pendlebury
Last 3: 91, 107, 127 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 153, 88, 103 (115avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A

Swan
Last 3: 102, 122, 145 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 106, 94, 103 (101 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A

Heppell
Last 3: 127, 98, 129 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 104, 76, 96 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 98, 43, 88 (76 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 107, 68, 143 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 149, 89, 112 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 68, 136, 121 (108 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 149, 88, 92 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 85, 131, 109 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 88, 87, 120 (98 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 92, 95, 138 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 92, 106, 110 (103 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 92, 95, 70 (86 avg)

Deledio
Last 3: 84, 74, 132 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 124, 105, 109 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 84, 74, 95 (84 avg)

Ellis
Last 3: 94, 125, 96 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 155, 72, 68 (98 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 94, 125, 67 (95 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 147, 141, 76 (121 avg)
Last 3 against North: 134, 117, 76 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 83, 117, 114 (105 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 88, 80, 130 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 127, 52, 46 (75 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 80, 130, 77 (96 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 126, 107, 139 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 68, 102, 129 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 143, 134, 68 (115 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 82, 73, 58 (71 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 38, 105, 114 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 135, 88, 114 (112 avg)

Montagna
Last 3: 91, 151, 158 (133 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 123, 98, 102 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 135, 65 (97 avg)

Riewoldt
Last 3: 98, 39, 59 (65 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 152, 82, 136 (123 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 98, 111, 110 (106 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 119, 122, 119 (120 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 71, 135, 61 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 119, 71, 136 (109 avg)

The thoughts:

Dangerfield
Useless against the Pies with a career high of 77 so only loophole him if you're absolutely desperate for a POD. Prediction - 75

Beams
An absolute fantasy slut, Beams is in great form. On top of that, he had a 132 against the Crows in 2012, a season which is fair to compare to this one in terms of scoring. Expect him to fire. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
It's hard not to be tempted by that 153, particularly when you can just give him the VC and play it safe. Pendles has had a great year so far and must be considered this week. He averages a touch over 100 against the Crows so will be good. Prediction - 120

Swan
Swanny always scores tons against the Crows (10 of his last 12, with the other two in the 90s) but they're rarely big. Coming off a mediocre 102 and playing a dreaded night game, it probably won't be a big ton this week. Prediction - 105

Heppell
Very mixed feelings about this one. Hepp's obviously in great form, and his ton against the Swans last year is a positive, but Etihad's been his worst ground this year with three straight scores under 100 (following his massive 150 to start the year). Should ton up but I don't think he'll smash it. Prediction - 110

Stanton
The 68 was bound to come when a team finally paid attention to him but Stants bounced back alright with a 107 last week. I'm torn this week because he had a huge 149 against the Swans last year but surely that's more reason for them to shut him down this time. If left to roam free, he'll go huge again, but I don't think the Swans are that stupid. Prediction - 100

Watson
Anyone that captained Jobe last week clearly missed the fact that, before his big 149, he had 5 straight scores under 100. The bounce back is hugely positive and he has scored well against the Swans in the past. Still, Sydney is flying right now so I don't think Jobe will go too big. Prediction - 105

Cotchin
Out of form and hardly exciting against the Dees. Pass. Prediction - 105

Deledio
I'll excuse the two low scores due to injury and assume that Lids will be back and good this week. Handy against the Dees and should destroy them this week. Prediction - 115

Ellis
While Lids was out, Ellis was the only player who could truly hold his head high and has been rewarded with a fantasy-friendly midfield role. Last year, against the Dees, he had so many kicks that he actually missed the next week with hammy soreness. Expect something really big this week (like Libba last week, who I failed to predict) and, if you're a bit of a gambler, bring him into your teams (I will be!). Prediction - 130

Rockliff
Way to bounce back from a 76 with two scores over 140!!! Rocky is practically a lock this week. Good record against the Roos and good at Etihad, form is fantastic. Prediction - 140

Barlow
A couple of poor scores in a row means I probably won't consider Barlow again until he bounces back. Pass for me. Prediction - 95

Johnson
Ryan Crowley will either go to Stevie J or Selwood this week. I can't pick which one, as both seem to be logical choices, so I'm recommending you don't give the C to either player this week. Prediction - 110 (unless Crowley)

Selwood
His poor form might save him from Crowley but I don't think he'll do well either way. Prediction - 80

Montagna
Of course I brought him in and made him captain last week... He should do better than his 91 this week playing a team he's pretty good against. We also can't ignore those 150s just because of last week's score. Prediction - 120

Riewoldt
Last week's 98 actually ended a streak of 8 straight tons at Etihad. That, coupled with his record against the Suns (152, 82, 136, 126) makes him a very enticing option this week. He has to be worth a very strong look (and probably eventually ignored just because he's not a midfielder). Prediction - 125

Ablett
Since becoming a Sun, Ablett's had some solid scores at Etihad with 4 tons from 6 tries, including a 143 and a 136 as highlights. In that same time, he's 3 from 5 against the Saints with a 135 and 143 in there but also a 71 and 61. The fact that his form is "down" because he's gone under 130 three straight times is what makes this man so great. Finally, I would have said to beware of Curren but Murphy proved last weekend that it's not a big deal if you can handle a tag (which GAJ can). Should be very good but definitely riskier than other week. Prediction - 125

The verdict:

1.   Rockliff (140)
2.   Ellis (130)
3.   Ablett (125)
4.   Riewoldt (125)
5.   Montagna (120)


VCs:

1.   Beams (130)
2.   Pendlebury (120)
3.   Any other Crow or Pie

Requests:

[GoLions]

Great stuff once again Huggy :)

Beams VC, Rocky C for me this week I reckon

[Mr.Craig]

Putting in a late show Huggy.

I'm happy enough giving GAJ the C.

[LaHug]

Putting in a late show Huggy.

I'm happy enough giving GAJ the C.

Yeah... I need to go to bed but had to get this done first ;)

[nrich102]

Beams vc and Rocky c for me

[Toga]

Probably going with Beams VC into GAJ or Rocky C this week.

Interesting thoughts on Brandon Ellis! Very tempted to trade him in just for the next two weeks now :o :-X

[Ricochet]

Looking at Beams or Swanny into Gaz/Rocky.

I know its a night game but for some reason I think Swan could go huge

[dtfreak]

nice work mate

[Rusty00]

Looking at Beams or Swanny into Gaz/Rocky.

I know its a night game but for some reason I think Swan could go huge

I have this same feeling about Swan which is why I bought him in this week ;)

[Ricochet]

Looking at Beams or Swanny into Gaz/Rocky.

I know its a night game but for some reason I think Swan could go huge

I have this same feeling about Swan which is why I bought him in this week ;)

Lol same.

OK I'm going Pendles in SC, Beams in AF and Swan in RDT and SB

[LaHug]

Probably going with Beams VC into GAJ or Rocky C this week.

Interesting thoughts on Brandon Ellis! Very tempted to trade him in just for the next two weeks now :o :-X

Ellis has Melbourne this week, GWS next week, and Essendon (scored 143 against them last year) the week after. I've brought him in and hope to have him for 3 weeks before moving on (or just holding). Only in AF though, don't have the balls to do it in the limited trade versions.

Looking at Beams or Swanny into Gaz/Rocky.

I know its a night game but for some reason I think Swan could go huge

I have this same feeling about Swan which is why I bought him in this week ;)

Lol same.

OK I'm going Pendles in SC, Beams in AF and Swan in RDT and SB

My RDT hope you're right but my AF hopes you're wrong. I'm going Beams VC in everything.

[Windigo]

Going Swanny, to be different....  :o

[Mr.Craig]

Need to buy Swanny a night light.

[Ricochet]

Thank flower it was a partial lockout

[LaHug]

Thank flower it was a partial lockout

Why...? Would you have given Swan the C?