Break evens

[WizzFizz]

Supercoach Paige


PREMIUM ALERT

Dane Swan had a BE of 129 yesterday, and managed to score 122, his second consecutive score of 100+ in what looks as though the SuperCoach superstar has returned to form.

He'll be approximately $508,000 after this round, finally bottoming out in price after a price drop of $120,000.
If you can find approximately $150,000 and upgrade a Matt Thomas or Dale Thomas type, or even if you still have Liam Shiels sitting on your bench, it may just be worth backing in Swanny who has a habit of going bananas on ANZAC Day with his past scores of 127 (2013) and 180 (2012) in the past two seasons.

BE should be around 45-50, round 8 bye though

[RaisyDaisy]

I plan on getting Swan after his bye. If he costs me 550-575k then so be it, it's still a bargain

[Bones Bombers]

Yeah, round 8 bye makes Swan very hard to fit in. Griffin will be interesting.

[HotTiges]

Tyson to Griff almost a cert

[Bully]

Tyson to Griff almost a cert

Tyson or Dunstan? This is a tough one, maybe cull Tyson given Melbourne will struggle to win a game.

[Rowan1812]

So noone can answer my original question of why are the breakevens wrong on fan footy? Whats the point of having them if they are wrong.

[jeesh]

Do yourself a favour and get SC gold. $20 for the whole season, it's less than a dollar a week, money well spent

[Keeper27]

So noone can answer my original answer of why are the breakevens wrong on fan footy? Whats the point of having them if they are wrong.

it varies a little, but not enough to make such a HUGE difference.

you can calculate the BE's yourself if you are so concerned about.

((price/5350) x 3) - last 2 scores.

i think thats it.

[Rowan1812]

I was the one that calculated all the breakevens in these messages. I dont wanna have to calculate the breakevens. Since there is a formula surely fanfooty can use that formula to get breakevens correct.

[Keeper27]

its a rough estimation mate. most of the time they are only off by less than 10.
does that really make a HUGE difference??

[Rowan1812]

Take a look at the break evens from some of the games. Way off. Some don't achieve break even and they go up. It's not accurate at all. For example pendles break even is like 179 and fan footy has him as 144 I think and he gets 128 and he is going up 17,000. What the?

[ants]

Take a look at the break evens from some of the games. Way off. Some don't achieve break even and they go up. It's not accurate at all. For example pendles break even is like 179 and fan footy has him as 144 I think and he gets 128 and he is going up 17,000. What the?

thats a lot closer than most of them!!  its pathetic! i asked ben gogos yesterday and he wouldnt answer me!! it seems they have lost interest or they are to busy and getting there kids to just fill it out for fun!!!

[Chrispy75]

I think the reason for the variances is that two magical numbers exist!!  All starting prices were 2013 average score x $5395.  Exception for rookies and LTI players.  I did this calculation on GAJ, Pendles and Jelwood to be sure.
From round 3, the magical number is 5020.  Divide current value by 5020.  This gives the three game total required.  Deduct last two scores and you get the break even.

And for the smart people, it does mean a player who averaged 100 last year will start at $539,500.  And should they average 100 this year will actually decline in value steadily to $502,000!! 

To estimate next value (and yes I checked this for a sample of 6 players at round 3) follow this formula;

(Current value x 0.735) + (Scoring value x 0.265) = estimated value

Scoring value = last 3 game average score x 5020.

My results using this formula on the 6 player sample were between $100 and $800 variance.  This was for players increasing and decreasing value and rookies as well.  The latter group was where variances tended to be larger.