Downgrade options for next round!

[GCSkiwi]

And herein lies the irony, I already have Fasolo, in fact this same argument played out last week as most were telling me you should wait a week because Fasolo may turn out to be dud. Instead I went with my instinct and he paid me back with a tidy 103. Now everyone is scrambling to get him in but many are also grappling with injuries to Mumford, Hanley, Leuey, Shaw & Shiels, not to mention jumping on Crouch. You just never now how injuries will play out in this game, you can pick with the best intentions but when guys like Enright & Deledio go down, you find yourself scratching your head and wondering how this could possibly happen.

I'll be bringing in Lloyd this week and banking my 200k, I'll also be sitting pretty knowing that Caddy will bleed no more and that I'm in a strong position to pick off the next 1 or 2 cows. If Lloyd scores 30 then I'll wear it, but as a betting man I'd be happy to take your odds on the likelihood of this occurring.

I just prefer to think of it as upsides and downsides. The potential upside of bringing in Lloyd this week is in my mind far outweighed by the potential downside. As was the risk with Fasolo last week. Upside? He might get another huge score. Let's say another 130-140. Wicked, great call. But with any rookie/cash cow, my concern is primarily the financial side. How profitable are they going to be? I'm not concerned that he's going to get injured or dropped and ruin my scores, I'm concerned that 1 game tells me sfa about how much cash he can make. If he's injured, if he's dropped, if he gets bad scores, all of them have the same effect of limiting his profit. That is what I'm concerned with. And that may not happen, I'm not saying that any of those are a certainty. Far from it, I expect I'll be picking him up next week. What I'm doing is allowing myself another week to assess it and see how he goes. I would love a spreadsheet of every players SC scores ever, so you could figure out who got a ton on debut and then what the average score was next round. I suspect it is vastly less impressive. I can understand wanting to get off Caddy, and if it was me and I already had Fasolo, I would be looking at Lloyd. But I would be looking more at Tom Williams, because he's shown in 2 games that he can score in the 60-80 bracket and will make a bit of cash. And if he is out for any reason after this week, at least I've made something for that trade. If for any reason Lloyd is out after this week, you're 1 trade down for nothing. My current forwards are Danger, Dustbin, Pav, JMerrett, Higgins and Fasolo. I'm a betting man and I'll take your odds on whether having Lloyd on the park instead of any of them would be the difference in a league game... Possible. But unlikely.

[Anthonyyyy]

although I don't want to get Lloyd in this week I would get him instead of Williams any day of the week as he has a way higher ceiling as shown and is 70K cheaper and will make more cash and if he is the next best option behind Fasolo so if you already have Fasolo and still need to get rid of Rohan, Caddy or any other under performing forward Lloyd is the way to go but the only real down side is he could only score 40 points but Caddy and Rohan have been scoring them anyways and Lloyd is 100K cheaper so get on him but Fasolo should be first in line.

[Bully]

And herein lies the irony, I already have Fasolo, in fact this same argument played out last week as most were telling me you should wait a week because Fasolo may turn out to be dud. Instead I went with my instinct and he paid me back with a tidy 103. Now everyone is scrambling to get him in but many are also grappling with injuries to Mumford, Hanley, Leuey, Shaw & Shiels, not to mention jumping on Crouch. You just never now how injuries will play out in this game, you can pick with the best intentions but when guys like Enright & Deledio go down, you find yourself scratching your head and wondering how this could possibly happen.

I'll be bringing in Lloyd this week and banking my 200k, I'll also be sitting pretty knowing that Caddy will bleed no more and that I'm in a strong position to pick off the next 1 or 2 cows. If Lloyd scores 30 then I'll wear it, but as a betting man I'd be happy to take your odds on the likelihood of this occurring.

I just prefer to think of it as upsides and downsides. The potential upside of bringing in Lloyd this week is in my mind far outweighed by the potential downside. As was the risk with Fasolo last week. Upside? He might get another huge score. Let's say another 130-140. Wicked, great call. But with any rookie/cash cow, my concern is primarily the financial side. How profitable are they going to be? I'm not concerned that he's going to get injured or dropped and ruin my scores, I'm concerned that 1 game tells me sfa about how much cash he can make. If he's injured, if he's dropped, if he gets bad scores, all of them have the same effect of limiting his profit. That is what I'm concerned with. And that may not happen, I'm not saying that any of those are a certainty. Far from it, I expect I'll be picking him up next week. What I'm doing is allowing myself another week to assess it and see how he goes. I would love a spreadsheet of every players SC scores ever, so you could figure out who got a ton on debut and then what the average score was next round. I suspect it is vastly less impressive. I can understand wanting to get off Caddy, and if it was me and I already had Fasolo, I would be looking at Lloyd. But I would be looking more at Tom Williams, because he's shown in 2 games that he can score in the 60-80 bracket and will make a bit of cash. And if he is out for any reason after this week, at least I've made something for that trade. If for any reason Lloyd is out after this week, you're 1 trade down for nothing. My current forwards are Danger, Dustbin, Pav, JMerrett, Higgins and Fasolo. I'm a betting man and I'll take your odds on whether having Lloyd on the park instead of any of them would be the difference in a league game... Possible. But unlikely.

Lloyd is odds on to make 140k in two weeks, and that's based on a very conservative estimate of 60 a match over the next fortnight. I just don't know how much more clarity you would want from a rookie. I'm really not fussed about whether he gets dropped after that, he can be upgraded to a premo given I will have my 200k stashed away. As for Tom Williiams, wouldn't go near him with a barge pole, aside from the fact he's one of the most injury prone players in the comp, he's 60k more expensive than Lloyd and based on an average of 70 odd, will only make 85k over the next fortnight. So picking him over Lloyd will end up costing in the region of 120k. 

[Ricochet]

And herein lies the irony, I already have Fasolo, in fact this same argument played out last week as most were telling me you should wait a week because Fasolo may turn out to be dud. Instead I went with my instinct and he paid me back with a tidy 103. Now everyone is scrambling to get him in but many are also grappling with injuries to Mumford, Hanley, Leuey, Shaw & Shiels, not to mention jumping on Crouch. You just never now how injuries will play out in this game, you can pick with the best intentions but when guys like Enright & Deledio go down, you find yourself scratching your head and wondering how this could possibly happen.

I'll be bringing in Lloyd this week and banking my 200k, I'll also be sitting pretty knowing that Caddy will bleed no more and that I'm in a strong position to pick off the next 1 or 2 cows. If Lloyd scores 30 then I'll wear it, but as a betting man I'd be happy to take your odds on the likelihood of this occurring.

I just prefer to think of it as upsides and downsides. The potential upside of bringing in Lloyd this week is in my mind far outweighed by the potential downside. As was the risk with Fasolo last week. Upside? He might get another huge score. Let's say another 130-140. Wicked, great call. But with any rookie/cash cow, my concern is primarily the financial side. How profitable are they going to be? I'm not concerned that he's going to get injured or dropped and ruin my scores, I'm concerned that 1 game tells me sfa about how much cash he can make. If he's injured, if he's dropped, if he gets bad scores, all of them have the same effect of limiting his profit. That is what I'm concerned with. And that may not happen, I'm not saying that any of those are a certainty. Far from it, I expect I'll be picking him up next week. What I'm doing is allowing myself another week to assess it and see how he goes. I would love a spreadsheet of every players SC scores ever, so you could figure out who got a ton on debut and then what the average score was next round. I suspect it is vastly less impressive. I can understand wanting to get off Caddy, and if it was me and I already had Fasolo, I would be looking at Lloyd. But I would be looking more at Tom Williams, because he's shown in 2 games that he can score in the 60-80 bracket and will make a bit of cash. And if he is out for any reason after this week, at least I've made something for that trade. If for any reason Lloyd is out after this week, you're 1 trade down for nothing. My current forwards are Danger, Dustbin, Pav, JMerrett, Higgins and Fasolo. I'm a betting man and I'll take your odds on whether having Lloyd on the park instead of any of them would be the difference in a league game... Possible. But unlikely.

Lloyd is odds on to make 140k in two weeks, and that's based on a very conservative estimate of 60 a match over the next fortnight. I just don't know how much more clarity you would want from a rookie. I'm really not fussed about whether he gets dropped after that, he can be upgraded to a premo given I will have my 200k stashed away. As for Tom Williiams, wouldn't go near him with a barge pole, aside from the fact he's one of the most injury prone players in the comp, he's 60k more expensive than Lloyd and based on an average of 70 odd, will only make 85k over the next fortnight. So picking him over Lloyd will end up costing in the region of 120k.

But then you've used two trades for the sake of only 140k and thats in 3 games time. Bully I'm not disagreeing with you in that Lloyd looks like a good pickup and I hope he scores well tonight, just disagreeing on the timing of when we should bring him in. As anything can happen in a week, let alone two weeks.

[Bully]

And herein lies the irony, I already have Fasolo, in fact this same argument played out last week as most were telling me you should wait a week because Fasolo may turn out to be dud. Instead I went with my instinct and he paid me back with a tidy 103. Now everyone is scrambling to get him in but many are also grappling with injuries to Mumford, Hanley, Leuey, Shaw & Shiels, not to mention jumping on Crouch. You just never now how injuries will play out in this game, you can pick with the best intentions but when guys like Enright & Deledio go down, you find yourself scratching your head and wondering how this could possibly happen.

I'll be bringing in Lloyd this week and banking my 200k, I'll also be sitting pretty knowing that Caddy will bleed no more and that I'm in a strong position to pick off the next 1 or 2 cows. If Lloyd scores 30 then I'll wear it, but as a betting man I'd be happy to take your odds on the likelihood of this occurring.

I just prefer to think of it as upsides and downsides. The potential upside of bringing in Lloyd this week is in my mind far outweighed by the potential downside. As was the risk with Fasolo last week. Upside? He might get another huge score. Let's say another 130-140. Wicked, great call. But with any rookie/cash cow, my concern is primarily the financial side. How profitable are they going to be? I'm not concerned that he's going to get injured or dropped and ruin my scores, I'm concerned that 1 game tells me sfa about how much cash he can make. If he's injured, if he's dropped, if he gets bad scores, all of them have the same effect of limiting his profit. That is what I'm concerned with. And that may not happen, I'm not saying that any of those are a certainty. Far from it, I expect I'll be picking him up next week. What I'm doing is allowing myself another week to assess it and see how he goes. I would love a spreadsheet of every players SC scores ever, so you could figure out who got a ton on debut and then what the average score was next round. I suspect it is vastly less impressive. I can understand wanting to get off Caddy, and if it was me and I already had Fasolo, I would be looking at Lloyd. But I would be looking more at Tom Williams, because he's shown in 2 games that he can score in the 60-80 bracket and will make a bit of cash. And if he is out for any reason after this week, at least I've made something for that trade. If for any reason Lloyd is out after this week, you're 1 trade down for nothing. My current forwards are Danger, Dustbin, Pav, JMerrett, Higgins and Fasolo. I'm a betting man and I'll take your odds on whether having Lloyd on the park instead of any of them would be the difference in a league game... Possible. But unlikely.

Lloyd is odds on to make 140k in two weeks, and that's based on a very conservative estimate of 60 a match over the next fortnight. I just don't know how much more clarity you would want from a rookie. I'm really not fussed about whether he gets dropped after that, he can be upgraded to a premo given I will have my 200k stashed away. As for Tom Williiams, wouldn't go near him with a barge pole, aside from the fact he's one of the most injury prone players in the comp, he's 60k more expensive than Lloyd and based on an average of 70 odd, will only make 85k over the next fortnight. So picking him over Lloyd will end up costing in the region of 120k.

But then you've used two trades for the sake of only 140k and thats in 3 games time. Bully I'm not disagreeing with you in that Lloyd looks like a good pickup and I hope he scores well tonight, just disagreeing on the timing of when we should bring him in. As anything can happen in a week, let alone two weeks.

Caddy is projected to lose between 20-40k, depending on whether he cops the vest. So conservatively speaking, the trade is worth a minimum of 160k. That as a baseline is fine by me, but I suspect it will be closer to 200k given Lloyd will probably average more than 60 and Caddy will probably be sub again. This also presumes Lloyd will only play another 3 matches, which I doubt to be honest. He looks like a new and improved King and I suspect will be part of the furniture into the foreseeable future.

[GCSkiwi]

Lloyd is odds on to make 140k in two weeks, and that's based on a very conservative estimate of 60 a match over the next fortnight. I just don't know how much more clarity you would want from a rookie. I'm really not fussed about whether he gets dropped after that, he can be upgraded to a premo given I will have my 200k stashed away. As for Tom Williiams, wouldn't go near him with a barge pole, aside from the fact he's one of the most injury prone players in the comp, he's 60k more expensive than Lloyd and based on an average of 70 odd, will only make 85k over the next fortnight. So picking him over Lloyd will end up costing in the region of 120k.

You're missing the point mate. Lloyd is odds on to make 140k in two weeks if he plays and gets 60 a match. If he doesn't play or doesn't get 60 a match then that number changes. And guess what? His price is guaranteed NOT to change this week. You're wagering 1 week of score difference between Lloyd and another player, in your case Caddy, in the hopes that Lloyd kills it. Nowhere have I said that he can't or won't do that. I'm simply pointing out it's not a done deal. You have zero clarity because you're making a decision off the back of one score. You want to go early, and with Caddy in your team that's fine. I'm happy to wait. Because as Rico said, anything can happen in a week.

[timtim]

A week is a LONG time in footy... and even more so in Supercoach

Smart money is first wait until he's on the bubble before you even think about bringing him in.

It also gives us another week to find a photo of Jake King with his Bikie mates and conveniently tip off the footy club

If you're worried about Caddy losing cash (which is legitimate) then downgrade him to Fasolo or Crouch via a DPP link of sorts

[Anthonyyyy]

I see where bully is coming from though he already has Fasolo and Caddy is almost a must trade. In my opinion Lloyd is the next in line so why not get someone that is 200k cheaper who at the least will score around the same as Caddy? I haven't got Fasolo so I got him instead but if I already had Fasolo I would be getting in Lloyd!

[Bully]

A week is a LONG time in footy... and even more so in Supercoach

Yep, and all that you guys are doing is focusing on one player when there's a whole lot of carnage that can occur to the other 29 players you are holding. I'm taking a risk on Lloyd, I'm banking 200k by downgrading Caddy, I'm ensuring I won't be subjected to another sub affected score, I'm freeing up my options next week when there are 3 potential cash cows and I'm going on my instincts as a Richmond supporter and knowing a little bit about the the dynamics of the squad.

If something happens to Lloyd then I'll wear the consequences, likewise, if something happens to one of my premos, I'll be content in the knowledge that I already have a cash cow locked away and am in a position to replace any long term injuries. I played the Fasolo card early and it's clearly been to my advantage, I'm backing Lloyd to be serviceable against a clearly undermanned Brisbane side and predict a 60+ score.

It's obvious to me that many of you are ignoring the rewards in this early trade because you are playing a more conservative approach, fair enough, but my aims are different. Nobody wins this contest without throwing a bit of caution to the wind. Let's revisit this thread later tonight, if I have egg on my face I'll happily concede that I jumped the gun, conversely if Lloyd puts up a respectable score and holds his place, then I will look forward to next weeks Lloyd vs Cripps vs Gray vs Robertson threads.

[Ricochet]

A week is a LONG time in footy... and even more so in Supercoach

Yep, and all that you guys are doing is focusing on one player when there's a whole lot of carnage that can occur to the other 29 players you are holding. I'm taking a risk on Lloyd, I'm banking 200k by downgrading Caddy, I'm ensuring I won't be subjected to another sub affected score, I'm freeing up my options next week when there are 3 potential cash cows and I'm going on my instincts as a Richmond supporter and knowing a little bit about the the dynamics of the squad.

If something happens to Lloyd then I'll wear the consequences, likewise, if something happens to one of my premos, I'll be content in the knowledge that I already have a cash cow locked away and am in a position to replace any long term injuries. I played the Fasolo card early and it's clearly been to my advantage, I'm backing Lloyd to be serviceable against a clearly undermanned Brisbane side and predict a 60+ score.

It's obvious to me that many of you are ignoring the rewards in this early trade because you are playing a more conservative approach, fair enough, but my aims are different. Nobody wins this contest without throwing a bit of caution to the wind. Let's revisit this thread later tonight, if I have egg on my face I'll happily concede that I jumped the gun, conversely if Lloyd puts up a respectable score and holds his place, then I will look forward to next weeks Lloyd vs Cripps vs Gray vs Robertson threads.

Like I have said man I hope he scores well so I can reassess next week. But we won't be able to look back on this thread until we hit the byes and then we'll know if it was a good decision to wait or bite the bullet. Good luck though

[Anthonyyyy]

I think you are doing the right thing getting Lloyd in now if you have Fasolo because it frees up cash and then you can get two out of the remaining three bubble boys next assuming they all perform

[Bully]

A week is a LONG time in footy... and even more so in Supercoach

Yep, and all that you guys are doing is focusing on one player when there's a whole lot of carnage that can occur to the other 29 players you are holding. I'm taking a risk on Lloyd, I'm banking 200k by downgrading Caddy, I'm ensuring I won't be subjected to another sub affected score, I'm freeing up my options next week when there are 3 potential cash cows and I'm going on my instincts as a Richmond supporter and knowing a little bit about the the dynamics of the squad.

If something happens to Lloyd then I'll wear the consequences, likewise, if something happens to one of my premos, I'll be content in the knowledge that I already have a cash cow locked away and am in a position to replace any long term injuries. I played the Fasolo card early and it's clearly been to my advantage, I'm backing Lloyd to be serviceable against a clearly undermanned Brisbane side and predict a 60+ score.

It's obvious to me that many of you are ignoring the rewards in this early trade because you are playing a more conservative approach, fair enough, but my aims are different. Nobody wins this contest without throwing a bit of caution to the wind. Let's revisit this thread later tonight, if I have egg on my face I'll happily concede that I jumped the gun, conversely if Lloyd puts up a respectable score and holds his place, then I will look forward to next weeks Lloyd vs Cripps vs Gray vs Robertson threads.

Like I have said man I hope he scores well so I can reassess next week. But we won't be able to look back on this thread until we hit the byes and then we'll know if it was a good decision to wait or bite the bullet. Good luck though

I reckon we'll know if it was a good decision based on tonight's performance, can't see too many overlooking Lloyd if he posts a decent score, which I think he will. Ultimately, we'll all be in the same boat if something happens in a few weeks.

[GCSkiwi]

A week is a LONG time in footy... and even more so in Supercoach

Yep, and all that you guys are doing is focusing on one player when there's a whole lot of carnage that can occur to the other 29 players you are holding. I'm taking a risk on Lloyd, I'm banking 200k by downgrading Caddy, I'm ensuring I won't be subjected to another sub affected score, I'm freeing up my options next week when there are 3 potential cash cows and I'm going on my instincts as a Richmond supporter and knowing a little bit about the the dynamics of the squad.

If something happens to Lloyd then I'll wear the consequences, likewise, if something happens to one of my premos, I'll be content in the knowledge that I already have a cash cow locked away and am in a position to replace any long term injuries. I played the Fasolo card early and it's clearly been to my advantage, I'm backing Lloyd to be serviceable against a clearly undermanned Brisbane side and predict a 60+ score.

It's obvious to me that many of you are ignoring the rewards in this early trade because you are playing a more conservative approach, fair enough, but my aims are different. Nobody wins this contest without throwing a bit of caution to the wind. Let's revisit this thread later tonight, if I have egg on my face I'll happily concede that I jumped the gun, conversely if Lloyd puts up a respectable score and holds his place, then I will look forward to next weeks Lloyd vs Cripps vs Gray vs Robertson threads.

I'm happy to admit I'm a conservative player when it comes to bringing in rookies. But I don't think we're focusing on one player at all, if anything we're remaining open to the fact that in a week there may be other players that come to the fore... We're just saying we'll wait and see, there's always other players to pick up even when you don't see them now. Carnage can happen to any player at all, the worst case scenario for me is missing out on some points this week from Lloyd and missing out on a potential DG options next week. Which is pretty tame if you ask me, given that you're never going to be able to pick up all the best options. That's a fairly minor amount of egg on my face. I'm just weighing up the rewards, not ignoring them. And the balance of it is, I'll take my time to think. Your worst case scenario, Lloyd breaks his leg at the opening bounce, gets a zero, gets no price increase and you're down a trade - but you'll have 2 shots at a downgrade next week. Now, I completely agree that the chances of that happening are next to none. And you're quite willing to take that risk. And in your case, I agree it makes sense, given you already have Fasolo and need to offload Caddy. But to me, that's not a wise decision, it's a decision based on a lack of other good options. Anyone else needing to get rid of Caddy should absolutely be looking at Fasolo before Lloyd. My structure is set up so that if I miss a DG option next week I can wear it as I'm confident there will be more. So I'm not going to make a rash trade nowand hope for the best, no matter how probable the best situation might be.

You're right you have to take risks to win it. But I think you're drastically overstating the benefits of getting Lloyd in this week, as I think you're drastically overstating the advantage you got from having Fasolo last week. He netted you a ton, great - certainly gave you 55 points more than JKH gave me at F6. I'm happy to pay another 55 points to Lloyd this week to see how he goes. This isn't about getting Lloyd in the team, it's about getting Lloyd in the team this week. If you don't need to, then you shouldn't do it. You can't possibly anticipate what sort of injuries are going to hit your team so there's no point in considering them when trading. I'm not going to bring in Lloyd this week because I'm anticipating one of my squad going down with an LTI over the weekend. I'll deal with those if/when they happen. For now I would rather generate some more cash from a rookie and bring in Lloyd next week if he warrants it, which I suspect he will, and if I miss Cripps or Robertson or Gray next week then so be it. Those prospects don't really faze me, Gray's JS is probably the shakiest and he was the best scorer, Robertson you could take or leave really, not setting the world on fire, Cripps did well in a woeful blues outfit but slightly higher priced which is a pain. I won't die if I can only pick one, if they're worth it...

[Bully]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/adding-richmond-small-forward-sam-lloyd-to-your-supercoach-squad-makes-perfect-sense/story-fni5ezdm-1226886917004

This is the counter argument, it's also worth noting that 18,000 other coaches have made the same move. Up to you, but I have a longer term plan which involves freeing up next week's trades in preparation for the byes. Horses for courses, I'm an aggressive trader and it's served me well in the past. It's occasionally cost me like the Docherty situation last year, but has overwhelmingly worked in my favour. When I see a player with a -197 BE, I pounce, just don't know what trades will be forced upon me next week. Good luck anyway, it's good to have a healthy debate, you've made some excellent points.

[GCSkiwi]

Lol that's not a counter argument at all, that's just saying he has good JS, I never said he didn't. And if 18,000 coaches have, then roughly 230,000 coaches haven't, I don't think those numbers mean anything. I agree we're just playing different strategies and like I said in your situation I tend to agree with the trade. But I wont be making it, and I won't be any worse of for it ;)