Downgrade options for next round!

Anthonyyyy · April 17, 2014, 10:19:30 AM

Lloyd, Robertson and Gray

are any of them worth trading in just trying to think ahead because wouldn't they all have risky job security?

Ricochet · April 17, 2014, 10:22:49 AM

I wouldn't be touching any this week just because they all have JS issues. Some are jumping on Lloyd early but personally I'm holding for now. King would be working his ass off to get back into that side and I would assume it would be at Lloyd's expense. Robertson probably has the best JS with all the injuries at Brissie but even he is a risk being a kid. Gray has Wingard and Monfries to come back in as well.

Anthonyyyy · April 17, 2014, 10:28:49 AM

Yeah this week I have got rid of my man Daisy :( for Crouch and then went Kennedy to Fasolo now I have a handy 525k in the bank for when my cash cows are ready to bne upgraded just thinking ahead!

Bully · April 17, 2014, 10:37:36 AM

Quote from: Ricochet on April 17, 2014, 10:22:49 AM
I wouldn't be touching any this week just because they all have JS issues. Some are jumping on Lloyd early but personally I'm holding for now. King would be working his ass off to get back into that side and I would assume it would be at Lloyd's expense. Robertson probably has the best JS with all the injuries at Brissie but even he is a risk being a kid. Gray has Wingard and Monfries to come back in as well.

Gordon will go before Lloyd, in fact Gordon might find himself in the sub vest as early as this week. If Lloyd scores a ton against a depleted Brisbane his first price rise will be close to 100k, no way I'll be risking missing out on that bounty. Couple that with Caddy's predicted fall and it could amount to 120k. If Gray & Robbo also turn it on, who you gonna pick? The early bird catches the worm, throw in an injury or two and one may miss out on all of them.

Ricochet · April 17, 2014, 10:43:45 AM

Quote from: Bully on April 17, 2014, 10:37:36 AM
Quote from: Ricochet on April 17, 2014, 10:22:49 AM
I wouldn't be touching any this week just because they all have JS issues. Some are jumping on Lloyd early but personally I'm holding for now. King would be working his ass off to get back into that side and I would assume it would be at Lloyd's expense. Robertson probably has the best JS with all the injuries at Brissie but even he is a risk being a kid. Gray has Wingard and Monfries to come back in as well.

Gordon will go before Lloyd, in fact Gordon might find himself in the sub vest as early as this week. If Lloyd scores a ton against a depleted Brisbane his first price rise will be close to 100k, no way I'll be risking missing out on that bounty. Couple that with Caddy's predicted fall and it could amount to 120k. If Gray & Robbo also turn it on, who you gonna pick? The early bird catches the worm, throw in an injury or two and one may miss out on all of them.

Some big IFs there as well though mate. Like I said Gray has Wingard and Monfries to contend with, and Lloyd has King breathing down his neck (but you would know more on that situation than me man). Agree based on his game last week he would be safe but being a rookie he is also one bad game away from being on the outer. Injuries can't be used as an excuse because what if Lloyd, Gray, Robbo get injured in the next 1-2 weeks. Or they have a stinker and get dropped the next week. Or get subbed off for a low score and that is in their rolling average. Or play the next couple and get dropped for the byes. Not saying these situations will happen but my point is there are so many risks associated with rookies as they are not a lock in a teams regular 22. Hence why its best to wait until they are on the bubble so you are guaranteed at least one price rise.

Bully · April 17, 2014, 11:19:36 AM

Quote from: Ricochet on April 17, 2014, 10:43:45 AM
Quote from: Bully on April 17, 2014, 10:37:36 AM
Quote from: Ricochet on April 17, 2014, 10:22:49 AM
I wouldn't be touching any this week just because they all have JS issues. Some are jumping on Lloyd early but personally I'm holding for now. King would be working his ass off to get back into that side and I would assume it would be at Lloyd's expense. Robertson probably has the best JS with all the injuries at Brissie but even he is a risk being a kid. Gray has Wingard and Monfries to come back in as well.

Gordon will go before Lloyd, in fact Gordon might find himself in the sub vest as early as this week. If Lloyd scores a ton against a depleted Brisbane his first price rise will be close to 100k, no way I'll be risking missing out on that bounty. Couple that with Caddy's predicted fall and it could amount to 120k. If Gray & Robbo also turn it on, who you gonna pick? The early bird catches the worm, throw in an injury or two and one may miss out on all of them.
Some big IFs there as well though mate. Like I said Gray has Wingard and Monfries to contend with, and Lloyd has King breathing down his neck (but you would know more on that situation than me man). Agree based on his game last week he would be safe but being a rookie he is also one bad game away from being on the outer. Injuries can't be used as an excuse because what if Lloyd, Gray, Robbo get injured in the next 1-2 weeks. Or they have a stinker and get dropped the next week. Or get subbed off for a low score and that is in their rolling average. Or play the next couple and get dropped for the byes. Not saying these situations will happen but my point is there are so many risks associated with rookies as they are not a lock in a teams regular 22. Hence why its best to wait until they are on the bubble so you are guaranteed at least one price rise.

Being a Richmond man I can confidently say that Lloyd will be safe for the first rise. Only injury will prevent this from occurring and to place too much emphasis on this is being overly conservative.

Given he has a 131 in his score he has already done his job as a cheap rookie. I've just whipped up some scenarios to help with the planning.

vs Brisbane (60) = profit 80k
vs Haw (60) = profit 60k

Most here would jump at 140k in two weeks, it also allows for an upgrade just prior to the byes. But I also suspect Lloyd will score more against Brisbane and 80 would not be out of the question.

vs Brisbane (80) = profit 90k
vs Hawthorn (70) = profit 70k

Long term job security for Lloyd is irrelevant in my opinion, delaying bringing him in because King might take his place is dilly dallying and not playing the odds. One could wait but Caddy is bleeding money and could really sting one's finances if he's sub again. Richmond also play early so clarity is assured with the sub situation.

My personal approach will be to pick up Lloyd this week and leave all options on the table for downgrades next week. Cripps, Robertson & Gray are firmly on my radar and if any score big this week they must be seriously considered. The byes are coming up and those with a fist full of cash will be in strong position to bring in 3-4 premos in rounds 9 & 10. Guys like Swan, Cotchin & Griffen will all be bargain basement and could provide a decisive edge in a few weeks.

GCSkiwi · April 17, 2014, 11:27:47 AM

See, I get entirely what you're saying Bully. But you're planning on the odds that Gray, Cripps etc do well enough that you'll want to bring them in 2 of them next week... What if they suck this week? Why don't you bring in Gray this week and wait and see on Lloyd?

As for your bye upgrades, sure, I also want to bring in as many premos as I can over the byes. But I want them to actually be premos, right now I wouldn't touch Griffen, Swan, or Cotchin if you paid me to. If they turn it around, great - 2014's Jelwood's. But I'm at peace with the fact that bringing in 4 premos over the byes will most likely be a challenge, for anyone. I almost see this as panic downgrading...

Bully · April 17, 2014, 11:50:28 AM

Quote from: GCSkiwi on April 17, 2014, 11:27:47 AM
See, I get entirely what you're saying Bully. But you're planning on the odds that Gray, Cripps etc do well enough that you'll want to bring them in 2 of them next week... What if they suck this week? Why don't you bring in Gray this week and wait and see on Lloyd?

As for your bye upgrades, sure, I also want to bring in as many premos as I can over the byes. But I want them to actually be premos, right now I wouldn't touch Griffen, Swan, or Cotchin if you paid me to. If they turn it around, great - 2014's Jelwood's. But I'm at peace with the fact that bringing in 4 premos over the byes will most likely be a challenge, for anyone. I almost see this as panic downgrading...

It's the opposite of panic downgrading actually, the only logical reasoning behind delaying bringing in Lloyd is that he may get injured. But what if we get a repeat of last week and half a dozen premos go down? What you are effectively saying is that I'm not going to move on Lloyd in case he gets injured but I'm confident that none of my 12-14 premos will succumb to the same fate. It basically comes down to one player's welfare stacked up against the welfare of your entire squad. It just defies all logical reasoning IMO.

If we also throw Caddy into the equation, who incidentally has a break even of 103 (a score he hasn't achieved over 46 games of football) one stands to lose another 30-40k if he is sub again. So as a worst case scenario, one stands to lose extra money, miss out on Lloyd or miss out on premo scores due to injury, and miss out on the next best cow out of Gray, Cripps & Robbo.

Panic couldn't be further from the truth, I consider such a move to be staying one step ahead of the pack.

GCSkiwi · April 17, 2014, 11:58:28 AM

The flaw I see in your logic is that we all picked our premos based of JS and to an extent injury history. So yeah, I am confident that the players I've picked are more likely to be playing in a few games time. But also, you wouldn't even be thinking about Lloyd if he got a 19, would you? the 135 is in his price rise for his first increase only, if he goes out and gets 30 this week then he'll have one good jump then be a liability. So yeah, I'm gonna wait and see if he can back it up... Caddy to Fasolo will be extremely popular, the only people who should be thinking about Caddy to Lloyd are people who already have Fasolo anyway...

Vinny · April 17, 2014, 12:07:13 PM

I really need one of Gray or Robertson to become a good pick next week in terms of JS more than anything.

Anthonyyyy · April 17, 2014, 12:08:13 PM

I have done Franklin> Fasolo and Thomas into Crouch this week and don't see the point of bringing llyod in this week as hes price wont rise and we don't know if that was a once of game but I guess that's up too you

GCSkiwi · April 17, 2014, 12:18:23 PM

Quote from: Vinny on April 17, 2014, 12:07:13 PM
I really need one of Gray or Robertson to become a good pick next week in terms of JS more than anything.

Would be handy huh? ;D

I actually think Cripps could be the best option, if he gets another 70-80 score he should be a good option, and with how terribly the blues are going there must be others ahead of him to lose their spot...

Bully · April 17, 2014, 12:19:10 PM

Quote from: GCSkiwi on April 17, 2014, 11:58:28 AM
The flaw I see in your logic is that we all picked our premos based of JS and to an extent injury history. So yeah, I am confident that the players I've picked are more likely to be playing in a few games time. But also, you wouldn't even be thinking about Lloyd if he got a 19, would you? the 135 is in his price rise for his first increase only, if he goes out and gets 30 this week then he'll have one good jump then be a liability. So yeah, I'm gonna wait and see if he can back it up... Caddy to Fasolo will be extremely popular, the only people who should be thinking about Caddy to Lloyd are people who already have Fasolo anyway...

And herein lies the irony, I already have Fasolo, in fact this same argument played out last week as most were telling me you should wait a week because Fasolo may turn out to be dud. Instead I went with my instinct and he paid me back with a tidy 103. Now everyone is scrambling to get him in but many are also grappling with injuries to Mumford, Hanley, Leuey, Shaw & Shiels, not to mention jumping on Crouch. You just never now how injuries will play out in this game, you can pick with the best intentions but when guys like Enright & Deledio go down, you find yourself scratching your head and wondering how this could possibly happen.

I'll be bringing in Lloyd this week and banking my 200k, I'll also be sitting pretty knowing that Caddy will bleed no more and that I'm in a strong position to pick off the next 1 or 2 cows. If Lloyd scores 30 then I'll wear it, but as a betting man I'd be happy to take your odds on the likelihood of this occurring.

felsty · April 17, 2014, 12:29:06 PM

Quote from: Bully on April 17, 2014, 12:19:10 PM
Quote from: GCSkiwi on April 17, 2014, 11:58:28 AM
The flaw I see in your logic is that we all picked our premos based of JS and to an extent injury history. So yeah, I am confident that the players I've picked are more likely to be playing in a few games time. But also, you wouldn't even be thinking about Lloyd if he got a 19, would you? the 135 is in his price rise for his first increase only, if he goes out and gets 30 this week then he'll have one good jump then be a liability. So yeah, I'm gonna wait and see if he can back it up... Caddy to Fasolo will be extremely popular, the only people who should be thinking about Caddy to Lloyd are people who already have Fasolo anyway...

And herein lies the irony, I already have Fasolo, in fact this same argument played out last week as most were telling me you should wait a week because Fasolo may turn out to be dud. Instead I went with my instinct and he paid me back with a tidy 103. Now everyone is scrambling to get him in but many are also grappling with injuries to Mumford, Hanley, Leuey, Shaw & Shiels, not to mention jumping on Crouch. You just never now how injuries will play out in this game, you can pick with the best intentions but when guys like Enright & Deledio go down, you find yourself scratching your head and wondering how this could possibly happen.

I'll be bringing in Lloyd this week and banking my 200k, I'll also be sitting pretty knowing that Caddy will bleed no more and that I'm in a strong position to pick off the next 1 or 2 cows. If Lloyd scores 30 then I'll wear it, but as a betting man I'd be happy to take your odds on the likelihood of this occurring.

What's the plan if he is named the sub?

Bully · April 17, 2014, 12:39:02 PM

Quote from: felsty on April 17, 2014, 12:29:06 PM
Quote from: Bully on April 17, 2014, 12:19:10 PM
Quote from: GCSkiwi on April 17, 2014, 11:58:28 AM
The flaw I see in your logic is that we all picked our premos based of JS and to an extent injury history. So yeah, I am confident that the players I've picked are more likely to be playing in a few games time. But also, you wouldn't even be thinking about Lloyd if he got a 19, would you? the 135 is in his price rise for his first increase only, if he goes out and gets 30 this week then he'll have one good jump then be a liability. So yeah, I'm gonna wait and see if he can back it up... Caddy to Fasolo will be extremely popular, the only people who should be thinking about Caddy to Lloyd are people who already have Fasolo anyway...

And herein lies the irony, I already have Fasolo, in fact this same argument played out last week as most were telling me you should wait a week because Fasolo may turn out to be dud. Instead I went with my instinct and he paid me back with a tidy 103. Now everyone is scrambling to get him in but many are also grappling with injuries to Mumford, Hanley, Leuey, Shaw & Shiels, not to mention jumping on Crouch. You just never now how injuries will play out in this game, you can pick with the best intentions but when guys like Enright & Deledio go down, you find yourself scratching your head and wondering how this could possibly happen.

I'll be bringing in Lloyd this week and banking my 200k, I'll also be sitting pretty knowing that Caddy will bleed no more and that I'm in a strong position to pick off the next 1 or 2 cows. If Lloyd scores 30 then I'll wear it, but as a betting man I'd be happy to take your odds on the likelihood of this occurring.

What's the plan if he is named the sub?

Arnot or Gordon will be sub, probably Gordon based on last weeks form.