LaHug's Captains - Round 4 2014 - Featuring Macrae Circlejerk

[LaHug]

Shameless plug! I ask for nothing in exchange for doing this. However, if you want to thank me, how about you chuck me a vote in the Personality of the Year thread?? Spanks in advance!
http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,89417.0.html

In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask! I'll do my best to get to all requests but I won't make any promises.

The facts:

Cotchin
Last 3: 117, 79, 127 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 101, 88, 102 (97 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 79, 100, 51 (77 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 94, 152, 122 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 86, 122, 121 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 94, 126, 129 (116 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 87, 113, 122 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 74, 102, 78 (85 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 87, 48, 91 (75 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 90, 68, 97 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 130, 116, 131 (126 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 90, 99, 122 (104 avg)

Murphy
Last 3: 102, 103, 89 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 124, 87, 145 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 102, 103, 77 (94 avg)

Cornes
Last 3: 73, 136, 128 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 80, 91, 46 (72 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 136 (136 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 157, 96 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 97, 69, 121 (96 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A

Treloar
Last 3: 159, 69, 124 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 81, 63 (72 avg)
Last 3 at Manuka: 81, 48, 91 (73 avg)

Macrae
Last 3: 131, 82, 122 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 71 (71 avg)
Last 3 at Manuka: 71 (71 avg)

J. Selwood
Last 3: 116, 104, 132 (117 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 135, 88, 107 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 132, 97, 110 (113 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 69, 151, 121 (114 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 143, 134, 83 (120 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 121, 84, 132 (112 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 146, 80, 141 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 139, 175, 147 (154 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 146, 141, 132 (140 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 121, 68 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 103, 90, 132 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 90 (90 avg)

Riewoldt
Last 3: 84, 148, 125 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 99, 51, 134 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 148, 125, 120 (131 avg)

Montagna
Last 3: 104, 110, 71 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 129, 127, 117 (124 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 189, 123 (141 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 96, 120, 153 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 65, 101, 70 (79 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 122, 65, 101 (96 avg)

The thoughts:

Cotchin
Definitely a top quality midfielder but his record against the Pies is nothing special. Better at the MCG than those numbers suggest but that won't make a difference as he'll surely cop the Macaffer tag this week (particularly with Deledio out). Will work his bum off for his team but won't go huge. Prediction - 100

Pendlebury
Fell back to Earth last week but still a top 2 or 3 midfielder. Awesome against Richmond and at the MCG, despite that 86 last year, and should find it just a little bit easier to rack it up with Richmond's midfield injuries. Will be at least solid. Prediction - 120

Beams
I was stupid enough to be distracted by his beautiful record against the Cats and make him my captain last week but not even I would go there this week. Not great against the Tigers and last week showed that he's not super consistent either. On top of that, he's under an injury cloud right now. Prediction - 85

Swan
If it weren't for his record against the Tigers, I wouldn't even be looking at Swan after three awful weeks. However, his last five against the Tigers reads 130, 116, 131, 133, 125. If he's going to bounce back, now's the week! I don't think he'll storm back though... I think his lower scores are due to the new interchange cap and him having to rest up forward a lot more. Swan used to be interchanged all the time and I think the lack of that is really hurting. This week will be his best in a while but still not amazing. Prediction - 105

Murphy
Nobody from Carlton excites me right now but they're playing Melbourne so surely some of them will smash it. Murphy's gone big against them before, which is why I've looked at him, but I still wouldn't take the punt. Remember Scooter Selwood two weeks ago? Prediction - 120 but don't do it...

Cornes
Cornes had an uncharacteristically poor week last week and now he comes up against by far his worst team to play against in the Lions. Usually, I'm all for backing Cornes as a unique captains pick but he has to be avoided this week. Only 2 tons from 19 games against the Lions with the most recent coming in 2005. Prediction - 90

Rockliff
Don't go chasing last week's 157 (although it was delicious) because there's a good chance Cornes tries to shut him down this week. Still, that's a fantastic score and shows why Rocky needs to be seriously considered every single week. Prediction - 110

Treloar
As I just said with Rocky, don't go chasing the mammoth score (although 159 is the highest score of the year so far!!!). Treloar showed he's legit when he runs free but really struggled with a tag against the Saints. Fortunately, the closest thing the Doggies do for a tag is send Mitch Wallis to watch your best player rack up the ball so Treloar should be sweet again. Wouldn't chase it but would strongly consider bringing him into my team. Prediction - 115

Macrae
This kid is 19 and already scoring like this. How long until he starts getting tagged?! Assuming GWS don't do the unspeakable and send someone to him all game, I don't see why he won't score well again this week. Kudos to anyone that's had him all year. Prediction - 110

J. Selwood
A classic Selwood vs. Selwood clash will likely see the in form brother, Joel, get up. Last year's 135 was very impressive but he probably won't go that high this time. West Coast are playing better but Joel's playing well right now so expect something solid. Note: I had put the wrong ground down but Selwood is just as good, if not better, at Kardinia so expect good things! Prediction - 115

Johnson
One of the three players I put above GAJ last week and, like the others, he sucked. However, there's no way he'll suck this week because he scored 143 against the Eagles at Subiaco last year and 134 against them at Subi the year before. Back to back performances like that, plus the unlikelihood or Stevie J scoring poorly twice in a row, makes him a super pick for this week. Should be massive! Note: He's playing at Kardinia, not Subi, but he's been massive there many times in the past too. Prediction - 130

Ablett
Lock. Prediction - 140

Mitchell
Very good last week despite the Crowley tag and will likely run free against the Suns. He's scored well against them before but his one game at Metricon was poor. Looking at solid but far from special. Prediction - 100

Riewoldt
It's never easy to come back from the West and perform well but playing on Sunday, coupled with Adelaide not knowing what a 4th quarter is, will surely help. Roo is up and down against the Crows but his Etihad form is impossible to ignore. If the Saints are to win (I'd say it's a 50/50 right now), it'll be because Riewoldt goes big again. Prediction - 110

Montagna
Joey's been fairly quiet to start the year but his record against the Crows is fantastic and he adores Etihad. Can't see why he wouldn't kill it. Prediction - 120

Watson
Watson was comfortably beaten by a de Boer tag last time he played the Dockers and I can't see why Lyon wouldn't try the same tactic again (although the Dockers did lose so he might mix it up). It seems that Jobe just struggles against Freo and isn't that great out west either. Might be a quieter week for him this week which will disappoint his owners hoping for him to bounce back after last week's poor 96. Prediction - 95

The verdict:

1.   Ablett (140)
2.   Johnson (130)
3.   Pendlebury (120)
4.   Montagna (120)
5.   J. Selwood (115)


Requests:

Wines - Requested by Jalapeno
Last 3: 115, 99, 136 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 93 (93 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 99 (99 avg)

Another second year player that looks incredible right now and scored a very handy 93 in his rookie year against the Lions. Like Macrae, I can't see why he can't keep up his scoring unless he cops a hard tag. There are others in his team that will cop a tag first so Wines could be a very good pick for his price. Maybe too risky for the C though. Prediction - 110

Redden - Requested by Jalapeno
Last 3: 120, 131, 88 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 87, 121, 129 (112 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A

Two big weeks in a row coming off a disappointing 88 for Redden. Against Port, he's been very handy with last year's score his only really poor one. Considering that last year was disappointing in general, you could just ignore that score and then it looks really nice. Port are no strangers to giving up tons in the last two weeks either so that's another positive. Could be very good! Prediction - 115

Ward - Requested by Jalapeno
Last 3: 119, 110, 111 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 55, 83 (69 avg)
Last 3 at Manuka: 55, 112, 113 (93 avg)

Ward's been consistently good so far this year but his old side seems to have his number. Three games at Manuka last year for two solid scores and one awful 55 thanks to a tag from Clay Smith... I guess the plus here is that Clay Smith won't be playing this week? Very difficult to back him because of his poor form against the Dogs but I do have a gut feeling that this will be his breakthrough. Very high chance that he'll go sub-100 but I'll go with my gut this time! Prediction - 110

S. Selwood - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 97, 48, 113 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 112, 68, 87 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 73, 74 (74 avg)

Scooter is still not forgiven for his 48 against the Dees and I don't see an issue with people trading him out this week. Against the Cats, he was good last year but that's the only ton for his career. Hasn't played at Kardinia since 2010 and I don't see his brother's side welcoming him to the Cattery kindly. With so many players out for the Eagles this week, I see a one-sided affair and I don't think that bodes well for Scooter's scoring. Prediction - 90

Hanley - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 118, 113, 79 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 72, 80 (76 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A

Hanley plays one of three types of game: 1. Loose in defence/mids, 2. Tagged in defence/mids, 3. Defence with an assignment. If it's game style 1, you're laughing as he comfortably tons up. If it's 2 or 3, you slowly fill with hatred as you watch his score sit still for the majority of a game. This is why I probably won't pick Hanley for a very long time. That said, Port aren't really tagging much at the moment and Hanley's been loose the last two weeks. I can't see him matching up on someone this week so, unless a surprise tag comes, he should be good. Can't explain that 72 against Port (was loose in defence so should've been better) but the 80 was him actually manning up which just won't happen this week. Prediction - 110

Martin - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 76, 89, 100 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 58, 75, 113 (82 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 89, 115, 28 (77 avg)

Crap against the Pies and I don't think he has the mental ability to step up with Deledio missing. This week might be ugly. Prediction - 70

Dangerfield - Requested by nrich102
Last 3: 83, 80, 68 (77 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 77, 79, 65 (74 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 78, 121, 100 (100 avg)

Can't handle a tag... team mates can't run out a game, let alone help him... He's never actually copped the CJT before so the fact that Jones isn't tagging this season doesn't mean he'll massively outdo those 70s he's had against the Saints. Geary or Curren have done the tagging so far with Curren beating Shuey last week. The only thing going for Dangerfield is that he's been very good at Etihad in the last two years and, I guess, he's overdue for a ton. Etihad being smaller should help the Crows run out the game but I just don't see Dangerfield exploding any time soon. Prediction - 85

Smith - Requested by Canuck
Last 3: 142, 73, 106 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 76, 93, 111 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 111 (111 avg)

Never thought I'd be writing about Isaac Smith in one of these... Basically, he's too streaky for me to ever consider but we've now seen what he's capable of. The Suns give up big DT points whether they win or lose a game so that's a huge plus for him but he's, frankly, unpredictable. One ton from four attempts against the Suns sounds about right. Realistically, about a 1 in 3 chance he tons up and a 1 in 5 that he scores a really big ton. Too risky for me. Prediction - 99

[LaHug]

Sorry it's up so late. Internet was out for about 6 hours meaning I couldn't start researching until really late. Sacrificed my uni work to get it done though (quality procrastination) so I hope you enjoy. Might be a bit rushed so let me know if I missed something obvious!

[Mr.Craig]

110 from Macrae? I'd be happy with that.

GAJ for the C.

[aces-high]

You are the king

[LaHug]

110 from Macrae? I'd be happy with that.

Can't see why he wouldn't get a bit over the ton unless he's tagged. Of course, the moment some team works it out and tags him, I expect something like 60... He probably has no idea how to handle it.

[LF]

110 from Macrae? I'd be happy with that.

GAJ for the C.

More than happy with 110 never expected him to be producing  the scores he has been so far is a great pick

[stew42]

Macrae is love. Macrae is life.

Wow, maybe we should rename the thread :P

[LaHug]

Macrae is love. Macrae is life.

Wow, maybe we should rename the thread :P

Your wish is my command.

[Jalapeno]

Hey Huggy

Awesome thread as usual man!!

I am just wondering what J Selwood and S Johnsons averages at Simmonds are?

Also Wines, Redden and Ward please man :)

[pommyadam]

runnign very low on captain choices this week (for RDT)
Watson - only mid90s
Smitchell - only a ton
Cotchin - as above
Beams - mid 80s

can I request Scooter, Hanley and Dusty please

edit: got 2100 with scooter as captain last week, so the teams in pretty good shape
and wait... a ruckless Essendon, also request the Sandi-man

[nrich102]

Awesome read lahug, How do you think Dangerfield will go against St. Kilda?

[Toga]

Great work Huggy, fantastic as always.

Awesome read lahug, How do you think Dangerfield will go against St. Kilda?

Was going to ask this myself, will probably go GAJ but feel as though Danger could explode this week :o

[nrich102]

Great work Huggy, fantastic as always.

Awesome read lahug, How do you think Dangerfield will go against St. Kilda?

Was going to ask this myself, will probably go GAJ but feel as though Danger could explode this week :o

If only his game wasnt on Sunday, then he'd be a decent loophole option in SuperCoach

[Ricochet]

Amazing as always LH. Hard to go past GAJ this week

[Nige]

Premium work Huggett.  ;)

Good to see my boy Treloar on the map!  8)

Loving the Macrae shout-out in the thread title too.  :P