LaHug's Captains - Round 3 2014

[LaHug]

Shameless plug! I ask for nothing in exchange for doing this. However, if you want to thank me, how about you chuck me a vote in the Personality of the Year thread?? Spanks in advance!
http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,89417.0.html

In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask! I'll do my best to get to all requests but I won't make any promises.

The facts:

Mundy
Last 2 weeks: 123, 99 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 119, 103, 83 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 119, 113, 101 (111 avg)

Boyd
Last 2 weeks: 87, 118 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 152, 102, 115 (123 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 87, 129, 81 (99 avg)

Cotchin
Last 2 weeks: 79, 127 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 78, 119, 152 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 100, 78, 119 (99 avg)

Ablett
Last 2 weeks: 80, 141 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 105, 143, 97 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 141, 132, 64 (112 avg)

Rockliff
Last 2 weeks: 96 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 86, 93, 110 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 93 (93 avg)

Zorko
Last 2 weeks: 130, 93 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 85, 51, 71 (69 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 51 (51 avg)

S. Selwood
Last 2 weeks: 48, 113 (81 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 124, 106, 92 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 113, 125, 112 (117 avg)

Cox
Last 2 weeks: 51, 108 (80 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 102, 118, 119 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 108, 133, 98 (113 avg)

Riewoldt
Last 2 weeks: 148, 125 (137 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 89, 103, 85 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 103, 65, 107 (92 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 2 weeks: 152, 122 (137 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 127, 117, 133 (126 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 129, 96 (117 avg)

Swan
Last 2 weeks: 68, 97 (83 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 90, 116, 95 (100 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 122, 131 (117 avg)

Beams
Last 2 weeks: 113, 122 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 137, 100, 129 (122 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 48, 91, 117 (85 avg)

Johnson
Last 2 weeks: 153, 121 (137 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 137, 95, 94 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 150, 100, 136 (129 avg)

J. Selwood
Last 2 weeks: 104, 132 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 69, 97, 136 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 90, 99, 128 (106 avg)

Mumford
Last 2 weeks: 132, 110 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 80, 68, 50 (66 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 110 (110 avg)

Ward
Last 2 weeks: 110, 111 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 138, 83, 111 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 111, 89, 138 (113 avg)

Jones
Last 2 weeks: 129, 147 (138 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 80, 96, 70 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 80 (80 avg)

Cornes
Last 2 weeks: 136, 128 (132 avg)
Last 3 against North: 106, 60, 108 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 128, 95, 103 (109 avg)

Watson
Last 2 weeks: 120, 153 (137 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 104, 77, 98 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 74, 104, 113 (97 avg)

The thoughts:

Mundy
With both Barlow and Fyfe out, I'm expecting Mundy to step up big against the Hawks. He played them twice last year with a solid showing for 119 at the MCG in the Grand Final. He averaged 111 against them in two games last year, averages 111 in his last 3 at the G and is averaging 111 so far this year. It's a sign! Prediction - 111

Boyd
Boyd has to be considered this week because of his massive 152 against the Tiges last year with his team losing by 10 goals. Less consistent than he used to be though so too risky for me. Prediction - 105

Cotchin
Cotch opened his fantasy season with a solid score on the Gold Coast before coming back and doing nothing against the Blues. Now he faces a team he was good against in one game last year but poor in the other. The Tigers won both games comfortably but the Dogs got a lot more of the ball in the latter meaning less points for Richmond players. Could go either way but the 152 in 2012 will likely tempt some. Prediction - 110

Ablett
Huge in week one and disgraceful in week 2, GAJ has quickly gone from hero to villain. Before we kneejerk too much though, remember that he had Crowley last week and there probably won't be Raines this week to slow him down. Plus, he's now had 11 tons in his last 12 at home, a ground where he and his team are very good. Prediction - 120

Rockliff
Before Voss made him a forward instead of a midfielder, Rocky had three straight tons against the Suns with a nice 143 in the middle. Last season, however, he was poor against them. A new coach was meant to mean midfield dominance again for Rocky but a tagging role hurt him. That said, he was still the top scoring Lion that week and should be good this time. Prediction - 105

Zorko
Zorks has shown nothing exciting against the Suns but a strong start to the season means he could be worth a quick glance. Prediction - 95

S. Selwood
My lock for last week flopped hard! This week, however, I am expecting him to bounce back. He's solid against the Saints and pretty good at home. Don't let me down again, Scooter! Prediction - 115

Cox
Cox was another disappointment last week after I backed him to destroy the Dees. Fortunately, he's back at home this week where he's awesome and against the Saints who he loves to score against. Mummy was able to get 46 hitouts last week and, although we don't expect Cox to match his 132, it's a positive sign. Prediction - 110

Riewoldt
Roo has had a massive start to 2014, showing he's truly the best forward in the comp, but his form against the Eagles and in Perth is poor. Prediction - 95

Pendlebury
What a huge start to the year for Pendles who's looking like the best playing in all of fantasy. He has a great record against the Cats (5 straight tons) and is obviously good at the MCG. The concern, however, is his ankle which required scans. If he's 100%, you should lock him in this week, but I'm keeping eye on the news for now. Prediction - 125

Swan
My finger is hovering over that trade button as Swan looks slow and unable to handle the new interchange cap. Couple that with the Cats being one of his worst teams to play against and we're looking at a poor score. At least he's back at the MCG this week which could help things... Prediction - 90

Beams
Beamer looks amazing right now, particularly for his price, and his record against the Cats is pretty darned good. It'll be hard to separate him and Pendles this week. Prediction - 125

Johnson
Stevie J is matching Pendles' ridiculous output so far this season and it's only his pricetag and regular suspensions that have kept him out of teams so far. If you were one of the wise (so far, at least) people to pick him, he's definitely a look this week. He has a great record against the Pies and loves playing on the G. Prediction - 125

J. Selwood
Jelwood, the Selwood I don't hate right now, has a pretty good start to the year and a solid record against the Pies prior to 2013. However, the fact that Macaffer held him to just 69 last year has alarms sounding. Surely he won't be held to such a little output again? Prediction - 110

Mumford
Mummy looks to be the best ruck in the comp right now so I tip my hat to those that picked him. Against the Dees, a team that rucks loved to destroy last season, I'm expecting the great form to continue. Prediction - 115

Ward
When the Giants beat the Dees last year, Ward had a very solid game and racked up a 138. Now he plays against the same team, at the same ground, while in better form for a team playing fairly well. Every chance he goes big again. Prediction - 115

Jones
There's one big problem with being a standout player in an awful team: TAGS. He managed to avoid a tag against the Eagles and did pretty well but, impressively, he overcame a tag against the Saints for a huge 147. That was aided by 5 frees for though, which you wouldn't expect most weeks, and GWS are generally better taggers (hence his horrid record against them). Be very wary. Prediction - 105

Cornes
Kane's quality form seems to have followed him from last season into this one as he's started 2014 really well. His form against the Roos is a bit up and down but they're not showing much right now and he's going well. Plus, he's shown that Etihad's no problem with a 128 in round 1. Prediction - 120

Watson
Jobe's started the year on fire (and is helping to make me look smart by scoring exactly what I predicted him to score). Against the Blues, however, he's not very good... and he's much more comfortable at Etihad than the MCG. I don't think his current form is enough to overcome a poor history against them. Prediction - 105

The verdict:

1.   Pendlebury (125)
2.   Beams (125)
3.   Johnson (125)
4.   Ablett (120)
5.   Cornes (120)


Requests:

Naitanui - Requested by Frankfaust1
Last 2 weeks: 65, 51 (58 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 98, 99, 83 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 51, 63, 68 (61 avg)

Why anybody ever has this guy in AF or DT is beyond me. He's not a DT scorer, never has been, never will be. That being said, he looks decent against the Saints so he might not be too bad this week. Prediction - 85

Sandilands - Requested by pommyadam
Last 2 weeks: 104, 110 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 79, 79, 74 (77 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 79, 15, 10 (35 avg)

Two injury games at the G have ruined his numbers there but, before those two, he went 129, 95, 138, so he's definitely solid there. That said, the Hawks are not a team he plays particularly well against with their midfielders usually poaching off his hitouts which seems to affect the rest of his game. Wouldn't look at him this week, even with his awesome start to the year. Prediction - 90

Montagna - Requested by luvfooty
Last 2 weeks: 110 (110 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 113, 82, 124 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 117, 82, 90 (96 avg)

If you look far enough back, Montagna has ridiculous scores against the Eagles (166 and 144 in 2009) and he's still solid nowadays. However, some scattered sub 100 scores against them is a concern. Based on form and scoring ability, he should be good, but there's definitely a fear he'll drop below the ton. Prediction - 110

Redden - Requested by Jalapeno
Last 2 weeks: 131, 88 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 95, 104, 112 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 104 (104 avg)

Redden only scored 88 in round 1 and we really shouldn't forget that just because he scored 131 the next week. Way too risky to have as a captain. His scores against the Suns have been decent but he's only had 3 tons in 6 tries against them and some of the sub 100s are unpleasant. Should be decent but wouldn't touch him. Prediction - 100

[Mr.Craig]

Think I'll be playing a straight bat after last weekend's humiliation and put the C on GAJ.

[Frankfaust1]

Hi LaHug. Would you mind casting an eye over Nicnat. I think he's on the up. Ta.

[pommyadam]

apparently Freako's tweeting that Sandi does well at the G, so him please
not really considering, but what the heck

also .... after the rd1 viewings, do you not think Leppa will use Rocky to tag Gaj? as he did successfully against Smitch?
and liking Ward as a smokie this week, my Barlow replacement (not game enough to C him though, especially after Scooter)
thinking that Cox should probably get a bump too, given that Hickey might be out (RDT has him with a fitness test)

[jamfrank]

Think I'll be playing a straight bat after last weekend's humiliation and put the C on GAJ.

+1

No more fruity Captain choices for me, neither. GAJ back to perma-cap.

[Nige]

Hey Huggy, got any stats on Heppell vs Blues, Treloar vs Demons and Boomer vs Power for me? After last week, I thought I should get some stats before deciding on a captain.

Cheers!

[Goose]

After Having the (C) on Scooter last week think i need to just perma captain either Pendles or Ablett rest of the season

[LF]

Montagna please Huggy

Gazza seems to throw out a stinker of a game and the next week he bounces back so I`ll have the C on him I think

[TomK]

Either Pendles or Ablett for me this week.

[T Dog]

I will be looking at NRoo... 8)

[pommyadam]

Hey Huggy, got any stats on Heppell vs Blues, Treloar vs Demons and Boomer vs Power for me? After last week, I thought I should get some stats before deciding on a captain.

Cheers!

Heppell: 87 from 6 games, including a 122 82 and 97 as last 3
Treloar: 93 from 3 games, scores are 90 102 and 89
Boomer: 26 games at 86, including a 61 66 and 101 as last 3 (didn't play them in 2013 though)

My bet would probably be Heppell (purely for the possession football that Essendon are playing) but would take Treloar over Boomer

if I had to stick my neck out
Heppell: 110
Treloar: 97
Boomer: 91

NOTE: I also backed Scooter (and Cotchin due to Carlton's lack of fitness) in for a big one last week, and look how that panned out

[Toga]

Ablett or Pendles for me this week, can't split them at the moment..

[H3PP3LL_21]

Still deciding between GAJ and Pendles but with Pendles under an injury cloud heading towards GAJ.

[LaHug]

I'll hopefully get a chance to look at those players tomorrow at uni. Otherwise, it won't be until Friday :-\

Mighty tempted to go Beams for shiggles and a POD.

[Nige]

Hey Huggy, got any stats on Heppell vs Blues, Treloar vs Demons and Boomer vs Power for me? After last week, I thought I should get some stats before deciding on a captain.

Cheers!

Heppell: 87 from 6 games, including a 122 82 and 97 as last 3
Treloar: 93 from 3 games, scores are 90 102 and 89
Boomer: 26 games at 86, including a 61 66 and 101 as last 3 (didn't play them in 2013 though)

My bet would probably be Heppell (purely for the possession football that Essendon are playing) but would take Treloar over Boomer

if I had to stick my neck out
Heppell: 110
Treloar: 97
Boomer: 91

NOTE: I also backed Scooter (and Cotchin due to Carlton's lack of fitness) in for a big one last week, and look how that panned out

Cheers man.

Probably should have mentioned that I asked this for BXVs sake which uses Sportal. But the stats are still pretty helpful for getting a rough idea.

I was leaning towards Treloar (who I've captained the past two weeks) in BXVs (has produced 175 and 111 so far). Heppell's only been marginally worse (172 and 103) so far. Boomer was my best performing player last week though, which is really the only reason I chucked his name in.