Lessons from last year

[nopies4u]

This is a cautionary tale of the mistakes I made last year that I am not making this year. I will not trade in high scoring mid pricers who have played 2 games in a row. Last year i traded in Birchall after his flying start, from memory he scored high 100's in the first couple of rounds, then scored 34 against GWS and got injured shortly after. I will not trade out backline prems because they might miss more than 1 match, last year i traded in Charlie Dixon after Gibbs went down, Gibbs  came back shortly after, I kept Dixon and 3 months later he had clogged my bench because of injury, caused me to have about 6 wasted trades trying to avoid a donut. I will not sideways trade because a prem had a slow start to the season, Last year I traded out Roughhead and he proceeded to dominate the next 10 to 12 rounds. Dangerfield started off slower than this year, and everyone who traded him out missed out on one of the top 10 players for the year.
Consequently i ran out of trades after about round 16, and my team crashed and burned about round 20. So this year i am keeping Mitchell, waiting patiently for Roughy Pav McVeigh,Simpson, Danger and others to come good because they will, and leaving Zorko, Stephen May, Matt Thomas and others unproven high scorers alone because they will only hurt you!

[batt]

Keeping all of Gunston, Dixon, Pav, Danger, Mitchell and Michie [for the time being].

Reactive trading is the worst kind.  They say "don't shop when you're hungry" - well don't shop for your new team members when you're hungry for the big scores you missed the week before.

[Doggoneit]

Good lessons Nopies

2 rounds do not make a trend

[shaker]

I can see your point but if you have someone who is going to lose a heap of money this week ala Dixon I think it is fairly smart to trade him out for someone like Zorko that is just a no brainer if you ran out of trades in round 16 don't think your problem is a couple of corrective trades in the first couple of rounds maybe you need to control the trade button in the middle of the season but anyway good luck whichever way you go  ;)

[Ringo]

You have summed up one of the main rules perfectly.  You started with premiums for a reason and should only trade for injury or severe loss of form. At times there are exceptions depending on your structure but in the majority of cases you keep regardless of early form. Remember Leagues are not won in the first three rounds of the competition so just trade conservatively.
Basic rule is unless trade is either improving your structure or allowing you make much more cash then do not do it.

[Free Kick]

Sound advice indeed..

Supercoach, like the AFL season proper is a Marathon not a sprint.

[HotTiges]

Good advice however RE never trade premos unless injured or severe loss of form, did you have Jacobs like myself?he lost that much cash he was basically a mid pricer.. Held on for that long I bit the bullett round 13 or so and got Big Willis.. Best move last year, spewing I did it late.. Finished 2029 overall what could of been if I listened to myself and traded him a lot earlier..

[batt]

I can see your point but if you have someone who is going to lose a heap of money this week ala Dixon I think it is fairly smart to trade him out for someone like Zorko that is just a no brainer

Quite literally a no-brainer.

Trading for future cash is super-silly, especially with premiums.  The premiums you bring in round 3 are locked keepers.  The only assessment you should be making on for players is how you rate them to score from round 3 to round 24.

Having an extra 100k of player value in 3 weeks time only means something if you are planning on trading them in that period, which you shouldn't be. 

In the case of Dixon -> Zorko, there hasn't been anything to suggest we should be more bullish on the Zork or bearish on Charlie.  Dixon had a concussion and a game against last year's runners up.  Zorko has had an extended run in the mids because Rocky tagged in the first week and was suspended last week. 

As Ringo said, if you've been following your player for the last 6 months, 2 weeks of form shouldn't change your belief in the player unless there's a major role change.

disclaimer: may have something to do with me being a slow starter (40k->4k last season, started 40k again this season)

[Colty]

im getting rid of Walters for Zorko, I put Walters in at the last minute because someone convinced me he would be spending more time tin the middle. This doesnt look like its going to be the case so I think the trade is justified, thoughts?

[bowyanger]

im getting rid of Walters for Zorko, I put Walters in at the last minute because someone convinced me he would be spending more time tin the middle. This doesnt look like its going to be the case so I think the trade is justified, thoughts?

What games have you been watching?

What Ive seen so far Walters has been in the middle more this year?

[Colty]

im getting rid of Walters for Zorko, I put Walters in at the last minute because someone convinced me he would be spending more time tin the middle. This doesnt look like its going to be the case so I think the trade is justified, thoughts?

What games have you been watching?

What Ive seen so far Walters has been in the middle more this year?

The first game he had 1 touch to half time and then spent some time in in the midfield which i thought Lyon did just to get him in the game, he scored 65, next game he scored 81 and kicked 2 goals 5, I didnt see that game but thats a fair effort having 7 shots on goals from the midfield.

[Doggoneit]

im getting rid of Walters for Zorko, I put Walters in at the last minute because someone convinced me he would be spending more time tin the middle. This doesnt look like its going to be the case so I think the trade is justified, thoughts?

What games have you been watching?

What Ive seen so far Walters has been in the middle more this year?

The first game he had 1 touch to half time and then spent some time in in the midfield which i thought Lyon did just to get him in the game, he scored 65, next game he scored 81 and kicked 2 goals 5, I didnt see that game but thats a fair effort having 7 shots on goals from the midfield.

he will always spend time up forward even if he is rotating through the mids

You also have to consider that they have lost Fyfe for 2 and Barlow for 6 - he could get even more time in the mids over the next few weeks

[tor01doc]

Trades are too few - every single year.

[Colty]

im getting rid of Walters for Zorko, I put Walters in at the last minute because someone convinced me he would be spending more time tin the middle. This doesnt look like its going to be the case so I think the trade is justified, thoughts?

What games have you been watching?

What Ive seen so far Walters has been in the middle more this year?

The first game he had 1 touch to half time and then spent some time in in the midfield which i thought Lyon did just to get him in the game, he scored 65, next game he scored 81 and kicked 2 goals 5, I didnt see that game but thats a fair effort having 7 shots on goals from the midfield.

he will always spend time up forward even if he is rotating through the mids

You also have to consider that they have lost Fyfe for 2 and Barlow for 6 - he could get even more time in the mids over the next few weeks

Yeah well your post has made me think that this is possible. maybe ill just hold for now. Thanks for your input.

[Grufflez]

But man, this goes against me booting Petrie... i really wanna boot him, what was i thinking picking him before the byes? I know! North Melbourne would fire and even though he is 31 he always scores so much more when the Roos win ! if he scores under 80 in the next few games i am in trouble.