LaHug's Captains - Round 2 2014

[LaHug]

Shameless plug! I ask for nothing in exchange for doing this. However, if you want to thank me, how about you chuck me a vote in the Personality of the Year thread?? Spanks in advance!
http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,89417.0.html

In one sense, it feels like I've been doing this my whole life yet, in another, it feels like my first article was just yesterday. Anyway, I'm back for my fourth straight year of bringing you the most well-researched captains advice in town!

For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. And remember, if you have any requests, just ask! I'll do my best to get to all requests but I won't make any promises.

We have a partial lockout this week for the Richmond vs. Carlton game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Tigers or Blues as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain. This should be easy if you have a non-playing ruck rookie.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

Should I or shouldn't I:

Not a single player in that game worth using the loophole on. Keep your C!

The facts:

Deledio
Last week: 132
Last 3 against Carlton: 91, 114, 78 (94 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 91, 95, 114 (100 avg)

Cotchin
Last week: 127
Last 3 against Carlton: 109, 51, 101 (87 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 100, 51 (87 avg)

Martin
Last week: 100
Last 3 against Carlton: 65, 28, 78 (57 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 78, 115, 28 (74 avg)

Watson
Last week: 153
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 108, 33, 114 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 153, 121, 120 (131 avg)

Shiels
Last week: 109
Last 3 against Essendon: 80, 134, 44 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 2, 64, 55 (40 avg)

Mitchell
Last week: 68
Last 3 against Essendon: 111, 109, 128 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 97, 77, 111 (95 avg)

Riewoldt
Last week: 125
Last 3 against GWS: 99 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 125, 120, 152 (132 avg)

Ward
Last week: 111
Last 3 against St Kilda: 113, 78, 54 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 63, 121, 61 (82 avg)

Dangerfield
Last week: 68
Last 3 against Port: 98, 95, 89 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Adelaide Oval (AO): N/A

Cornes
Last week: 128
Last 3 against Adelaide: 104, 128, 57 (96 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A

Barlow
Last week: 134
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 81, 67 (74 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 111, 77, 106 (98 avg)

Sandilands
Last week: 110
Last 3 against Gold Coast: N/A
Last 3 at Subiaco: 40, 62, 53 (52 avg)

Ablett
Last week: 141
Last 3 against Fremantle: 101, 175, 117 (131 avg)
Last 3 at Subiaco: 89, 102, 175 (122 avg)

Swan
Last week: 97
Last 3 against Sydney: 94, 85, 106 (95 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 94, 125, 110 (110 avg)

Pendlebury
Last week: 122
Last 3 against Sydney: 117, 95, 125 (112 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 117, 105, 107 (110 avg)

Beams
Last week: 122
Last 3 against Sydney: 108, 99, 131 (113 avg)
Last 3 at ANZ: 108, 131, 68 (102 avg)

J. Selwood
Last week: 132
Last 3 against Brisbane: 97, 121, 69 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 121, 69, 70 (87 avg)

Johnson
Last week: 121
Last 3 against Brisbane: 84, 129, 81 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 129, 81, 74 (95 avg)

S. Selwood
Last week: 113
Last 3 against Melbourne: 142, 131, 91 (121 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 101, 142, 117 (120 avg)

Masten
Last week: 67
Last 3 against Melbourne: 120, 113, 75 (103 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 111, 120, 81 (104 avg)

Priddis
Last week: 109
Last 3 against Melbourne: 98, 97, 110 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 98, 89 (101 avg)

Cox
Last week: 108
Last 3 against Melbourne: 132, 106, 96 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 132, 79 (104 avg)

Boyd
Last week: 118
Last 3 against North: 65, 115, 162 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 129, 81, 112 (107 avg)

Griffen
Last week: N/A
Last 3 against North: 129, 104, 118 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 59, 90, 121 (90 avg)

The thoughts:

Deledio
It's no secret that Lids took a massive step back in fantasy scoring last year when compared to 2013. I believe that he struggled with being first fiddle in the midfield while Cotchin struggled with not being entirely fit. That's why my opinion (feel free to ignore it) is that he'll be much better this year! All three of those Carlton scores are last year (the 91 being in the finals) and it's hardly impressive. In fact, his record against Carlton isn't that impressive at all. Only my gut says he'll do well but that's not enough for me to tell you to back him. Could be a unique VC choice though. Prediction - 95

Cotchin
Cotchin struggled through last year, clearly not 100%, but looks the goods this year to get back to 2012 form. Last year's games against the Blues weren't too flashy (particularly a 51 getting tagged and copping a corky in the second quarter) but he performed very well in 2012 with a 118 and 120. Again, probably not worth backing but realistically the best VC option there is. Prediction - 110

Martin
Putting this here just so you all know he sucks against the Blues. Don't kneejerk and take him out of your teams if he does poorly again this week. Prediction - 70

Watson
Huge last week, solid against the Hawks (33 was an injury game and he had a 122 before that 114), very solid at Etihad. Obviously, don't overreact to his big score last week and change your whole team just to get him in, but definitely look at him. Prediction - 120

Shiels
He's proven he can score well against the Bombers with a 134 in 2011 but he hasn't tonned up at Etihad since 2011... Don't put him in your team just because he tonned up last week. If he's definitely in your team, don't put the C anywhere near him. Prediction - 85

Mitchell
Despite a 68 last week, I expect Sammy to be in practically everyone's teams. He has a fantastic record against the Bombers but BE WARY because he also had a fantastic record against the Lions before last week... Prediction - 100

Riewoldt
Despite only having a 99 in his one game against the Giants, I expect huge things from Roo this week. Firstly, he'll do whatever it takes to single-handedly will his team to victory. On top of that, he has a ridiculous record at Etihad and the Giants will probably be without Davis and Mohr. Prediction - 120

Ward
The 113 last year shows he can score against the Saints and I'd be looking for Ward to take advantage of a weak St Kilda outfit (even with Hayes and Montagna back). Prediction - 110

Dangerfield
Until the Crows midfielders actually offer some help to Dangerfield, he'll keep struggling with strong tags. The Cornes tag is less restrictive than some others but I wouldn't have said Guthrie was an elite tagger before last week. He should be ok but won't be huge. Always a chance he'll get suffocated as well. Not worth the risk. Prediction - 90

Cornes
Two solid scores in two solid Showdown victories last year make Cornes a good pick for this week. However, I don't think he'll be huge, just solid. Been very up and down in past Showdowns with a lot depending on what role he plays and whether or not he'll tag someone (and who he tags...). Prediction - 110

Barlow
Barlow was huge in his side's thrashing of the Pies however, he's been very quiet in both performances against the Suns. Obviously, there's every chance he goes huge but I'd be incredibly cautious given the two low scores. Prediction - 90

Sandilands
110 last round was very solid and now Sandi comes up against a team that let Shaun Hampson have 37 hitouts. Pencil him in for at least 40 hitouts meaning that anywhere near his 19 disposals from last week (with a few extra kicks instead of handballs) and you have yourself a comfortable ton. I'm looking forward to it but I'd never risk him with the C after all of his injury issues. Prediction - 110

Ablett
Pendles managed a 122 against Crowley last week but did need 9 tackles to get there. Obviously, beware of the Crowley tag, but you can still score well with it! GAJ has some MONSTER scores against the Dockers and at Patterson's Playground. Just looking at the 175 is tempting me. I don't think it'll be that high, particularly with the chance of a Freo domination, but it should still be high.
Edit: Thanks to jvalles for pointing out that GAJ has only faced Crowley once since becoming a Sun and since Crowley because truly dominant. He was kept to just 101 (albeit with 4 FAs). There's a good chance he'll be kept a little quieter. Prediction - 125 120

Swan
Swanny looked injured last week or, at the very least, underdone. Nothing too flashy against the Swans in recent times but, if you just look at his Homebush scores, going back to 2011 and earlier, Swan had 125, 110, 127, and 130. The 94 last year was at this ground too, however, so I'm not even sure on Swan right now. Prediction - 110

Pendlebury
Racked up a massive 9 tackles to help him score 122 against Crowley. Now he's against the Swans where the numbers say a ton is practically a certainty. Don't expect the same number of tackles but he will still be very solid. Prediction - 115

Beams
In 2012, Beamer scored a 131 against the Swans at this same ground. He seems to do pretty well against them and, if last round is anything to go by, he can rack it up even if his team is destroyed (a real chance this week). Seems safe for 110+ this week. Prediction - 120

J. Selwood
If you picked he's score 132 last week, despite potential hamstring issues, can I borrow your magic eight ball? Basically, Selwood against the Lions comes down to who is tagging him. If Raines comes in for Rockliff, he might not even make the ton but, if not, there's a solid chance he'll rack up something around 120 or more! Prediction - 125 without Raines, 95 with Raines (wait for teams)

Johnson
Brisbane are one of Stevie J's worst teams to play but he's done reasonable well against them at the Gabba. I wouldn't back him with so many better options around. He scores under the ton way too frequently against the Lions. Prediction - 90

S. Selwood
YEP! Super pick this week. Will smash the Dees. 142 against them at the G last year. DELICIOUS. Prediction - 130

Masten
Playing on the half forward line really hurt his fantasy scoring last week and you have to be wary that it could happen again. If it doesn't, he should smash the Dees. However, I'm certainly not risking it. Prediction - 100

Priddis
Strangely unimpressive record against the Dees but you'd expect a solid score if the Eagles dominate. A lot of Eagles should be looking at the 100+ mark this week. Prediction - 105

Cox
Tom Hickey scored 85 against the Demons last week... Tom Hickey!?! On top of that, Jake Spencer won the hitouts with 40. There's no way in hell Jake Spencer is beating Dean Cox this week. This couldn't be scripted any better for a complete ruck domination if you tried! Max Gawn will probably play this week and he is quite big, but I still think Cox will have a field day. Prediction - 115

Boyd
Aside from last year's 65, Boyd is great against the Roos. If you take that score as a blip (it was his worst score at Etihad since 2008), you're looking at a very good score this week. If, however, you think the score was a sign of things to come as Boyd gets older, don't touch him. I'm leaning towards blip... Prediction - 115

Griffen
Griff has been great against the Roos in recent times and was the only bright spot for his team in their loss last season. He's usually solid at Etihad although he finished poorly last year. Of course, he can only score well if he gets past his back injury and actually plays. We'll have to wait and see for that one. Prediction - 115

The verdict:

1.   S. Selwood (130)
2.   J. Selwood (125*)
3.   Ablett (120)
4.   Watson (120)
5.   Riewoldt (120)
6.   Beams (120)


VCs
Cotchin (and if you don't have him, just pick anyone from that game... Lids always has a chance to go big, as does Gibbs)

Requests:

[colmullet]

no Barlow?

[LF]

Barlow is there :)

Great write up like always LaHug I`m still a little undecided on the C this week.

[Toga]

Good stuff Huggy! Cotchin will be my VC and will see how he goes (would probably take anything over 120), but otherwise Ablett or S.Selwood will be fighting it out for the armband this week...

Great write up as always!!

[colmullet]

whoops haha

[LaHug]

Good stuff Huggy! Cotchin will be my VC and will see how he goes (would probably take anything over 120), but otherwise Ablett or S.Selwood will be fighting it out for the armband this week...

Great write up as always!!

I'm now trying to find a way to get Scooter into my team without having to play a showerty forward rookie. Can't work it out yet so it'll like be Cotch VC and GAJ C for me.

[Scrads]

I'm making Cotchin my VC in AF and Martin my VC in VS, surely at least one will go big :P

[jvalles69]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in Gaz's 3 Freo games the 101 is the only game he was tagged by Crowley...the 175 he was tagged by Palmer...think Gaz will only go either side of 100 by 5-10 pts?

[jamfrank]

VC on Cotch. Thinking N Roo for the C this week. Or maybe Watson. Very uncertain, though.

[pommyadam]

I'd ramp up the richmond scores given that Carlton look underdone (or did in rd1) so they'll be ripe for some good scores

Scooter, Cotchin for me (but Beams as VC look damn tempting too)

[LaHug]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in Gaz's 3 Freo games the 101 is the only game he was tagged by Crowley...the 175 he was tagged by Palmer...think Gaz will only go either side of 100 by 5-10 pts?

He was tagged by Palmer for the 175. However, his last 4 games against them other than that are 101 (tagged by Crowley), 117 (GAJ a Cat, can't find any evidence but believe he was tagged by Crowley), 130 (tagged by Crowley), 118 (no idea because Crowley didn't play). Last year's was the one poor score of all of them and it was still a ton. I'm content with my guess :) Still would prefer Scooter though!

[Ricochet]

jvalles is correct LH. Since Crowley has become an elite tagger he has only played GAJ the once. I'd be careful with this one

[jvalles69]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in Gaz's 3 Freo games the 101 is the only game he was tagged by Crowley...the 175 he was tagged by Palmer...think Gaz will only go either side of 100 by 5-10 pts?

He was tagged by Palmer for the 175. However, his last 4 games against them other than that are 101 (tagged by Crowley), 117 (GAJ a Cat, can't find any evidence but believe he was tagged by Crowley), 130 (tagged by Crowley), 118 (no idea because Crowley didn't play). Last year's was the one poor score of all of them and it was still a ton. I'm content with my guess :) Still would prefer Scooter though!

I had a look and Gaz has only been tagged once by Crowley since playing for GC.

[TomK]

Loophole with Cotch. Will turn to Pendles in AF and Beams in RDT, if Cotch doesn't go too well.

[LaHug]

Definitely concerning and thanks for brining it up! GAJ has only played Freo twice since becoming a Sun. Crowley kept him down but it was just one game... I guess it just makes it near impossible to know and is more incentive for people to get Scooter into their team.

Might do a sneaky edit though!