Langdon

[GCSkiwi]

Well i'm fairly certain Wanganeen has played his 1 and only game for the season so having him sitting on the bench for the rest of the season is viable but I'd much rather bring someone in to make me some cash and potentially more points and also give me a DP link to the backs. Will have to wait for teams for any possible donuts but geez I hope none arise this early on. I had 28 play, 27 played a full game only vest was Wanganeen and then 2 non playing rookie rucks like most that didn't want to have cash on the bench.

Even if Wanganeen doesn't play this week neither he nor Langdon will change in price this week. So if Wanganeen is occupting your M10 spot, swapping him out for Langdon this week makes absolutley no difference to your team score, and no difference to the dynamics of trading him next week. By all means do it if you like but I'm just suggesting there is nothing to be gained by trading him in this week, if you wait til next week you will at least have more information on which to base the decision. Not saying it isn't a potentially solid trade, I'm saying it's a potentially solid trade that makes no difference this week. So make it next week if it's still a good idea.

[H1bb3i2d]

Usually I would say no.... however, I can't see a single other backline option that you could also trade in instead, so there's not really any 'wait and see on who is the best option.'

In that case, there is absolutely no difference in trading this week or next.

Sure, Langdon could get injured... So could another rookie that you already have which would require a trade out... And then one of your premiums gets a LTI... thus 3 trades in one week if you waited.... It's all theoreticals and what ifs, all unlikely either way.

If your gut says trade now, go for it, if not, hold.

[GCSkiwi]

Usually I would say no.... however, I can't see a single other backline option that you could also trade in instead, so there's not really any 'wait and see on who is the best option.'

He mentioned Wanganeen being the likely trade out so I'm assuming this is Langdon heading into midfield, not defense.

In that case, there is absolutely no difference in trading this week or next.

There is ALWAYS a difference. The way I see it Lagdon in this weeks makes no difference to the team scoring at all and neither Wanganeen or Langdon will change price. There is literally zero upside to making the trade this week.

Sure, Langdon could get injured... So could another rookie that you already have which would require a trade out... And then one of your premiums gets a LTI... thus 3 trades in one week if you waited.... It's all theoreticals and what ifs, all unlikely either way.

True but in this case we're talking about making a trade to bring a rookie in... If someone in your team cops an injury they haven't cost you a trade to bring in, so the cost is in reality nil, you just have to shift that player on. If you bring someone in who then cops an injury you are down the trade to bring them in as well as the trade to drop them.

Here's the scenarios as I see them:

Jeesh has a team of 22 field players, and Wanganeen on his bench at M10, not the emergency player, and 30 trades. This week he trades Wanganeen out for Langdon. Still as non emergency M10.

a) Langdon scores amazingly well, but no points gained as he was M10. 29 trades left, great cash cow swapped in. Could have achieved exactly the same result making the swap after round 2 (see option c).

b) Langdon cops an injury, no points lost as he was M10. 29 trades left, now Jeesh needs to make another trade to rid himself of Langdon, Langdon's price unchanged as he's only now on the bubble. 2 trades down, net change in bank balance zero.

c) Jeesh waits a week, loses no points having a non-playing Wanganeen on the bench, Langdon kills it and is brought in after round 2. Great cash cow swapped in, 29 trades left, Langdon guaranteed to gain money as long as he steps on the park.

d) Jeesh waits a week, loses no points having a non-playing Wanganeen on the bench, Langdon gets injured and is no longer brought in for Wanganeen. 30 trades left and options on whichever now on the bubble rookie looks best.

Even if after option c Langdon gets injured the next week, you gain some money on him. So yes, you might still lose the 2 trades but your balance has gone up even if only marginally. The ONLY reason to bring him in this week is if he is to go on the field. And it doesn't sound like Jeesh is in dire straights for that. Option a is the best hope of bringing him in this week and exactly the same position can be achieved by following scenario c. Which conveniently comes without the risk of b and the protection in case of d.

Trust me, I haven't got Langdon either and I've thought this through thoroughly. It looks a lot like I will want to get him in too, but there is zero advantage to doing so this week.

[jeesh]

So what about option
e) I bring him in. I bench one of Polec, Dunstan, Michie or Ellis. Most likely Michie cause I think West Coast could tear Melbourne a new one so Michie repeats the dose of a 60 odd and Langdon tons up again I'm 40 points up

[Bully]

I doubt that Langdon will score 100's too often, to be honest I think I'll be fielding Langford for a guaranteed 70-80.

[Ricochet]

I doubt that Langdon will score 100's too often, to be honest I think I'll be fielding Langford for a guaranteed 70-80.

Yeh I think I'll be fielding Langford this week. Rookies rarely back big scores up

[Spite]

I doubt that Langdon will score 100's too often, to be honest I think I'll be fielding Langford for a guaranteed 70-80.

Yeh I think I'll be fielding Langford this week. Rookies rarely back big scores up

I wonder how true this is. Its obviously the common thought BUT I can remember lots and lots of rookies that have sucked me in with two huge tons and then a terrible third game. Barlow bang bang bust, Beau Muston bang bang bust, greene for memory did that too! 3rd game curse :P

[Ricochet]

I doubt that Langdon will score 100's too often, to be honest I think I'll be fielding Langford for a guaranteed 70-80.

Yeh I think I'll be fielding Langford this week. Rookies rarely back big scores up

I wonder how true this is. Its obviously the common thought BUT I can remember lots and lots of rookies that have sucked me in with two huge tons and then a terrible third game. Barlow bang bang bust, Beau Muston bang bang bust, greene for memory did that too! 3rd game curse :P

Haha you may be right. Looked into the main rookies from last year and their first 3 games. Nothing really clear cut tbh. Some were very up and down and some gradually improved

Whitfield
RD1 49
RD2 100
RD3 31

Wines
RD1 125
RD2 51
RD3 121

Jaeger
RD1 72
RD2 117
RD3 40

Vlastuin
RD5 51
RD6 78
RD7 105

Viney
RD1 117
RD2 49
RD3 71

Crouch
RD2 85
RD3 50
RD4 83

Hutchings
RD7 55
RD9 86
RD10 87

Terlich
RD2 56
RD3 62
RD4 62

Mayes
RD3 72
RD4 78
RD5 95

[MC]

So Rico, can we conclude that rookies are not so reliable, perhaps a 100-scoring rookie could burn us!

OMFG trade!?  ;D

[Ricochet]

haha no its the reason I might start Langford over Langdon this week

[tor01doc]

I am pretty sure I went O'Meara Viney O'Meara last year ie 72 49 40 = 161

when I coulda shoulda gone Viney O'Meara Viney = 305!

Flip a coin if none are subs.

[GCSkiwi]

So what about option
e) I bring him in. I bench one of Polec, Dunstan, Michie or Ellis. Most likely Michie cause I think West Coast could tear Melbourne a new one so Michie repeats the dose of a 60 odd and Langdon tons up again I'm 40 points up

As others have said you're chasing a score he already got. Again the point of waiting a week. you could bring him in, put him on the field and watch as he gets 20. And then you would realise he's not likely to be a 100 every week player. All of a sudden the trade wasn't worth it as much. I would not field him over any of those guys unless they were vested.

Ultimately it's your team and your trades, do what you like. I'm just trying to point out that you lose nothing by waiting.

[RaisyDaisy]

Watching Collingwood's show "The Club" and the first 10 minutes of the episode is just about Langdon. Seems to be a really mature kid with a good head on his shoulders, and to get this coverage on the show can only be a positive. Should be a great cash cow this year

[jeesh]

As others have said you're chasing a score he already got. Again the point of waiting a week. you could bring him in, put him on the field and watch as he gets 20. And then you would realise he's not likely to be a 100 every week player. All of a sudden the trade wasn't worth it as much. I would not field him over any of those guys unless they were vested.

Ultimately it's your team and your trades, do what you like. I'm just trying to point out that you lose nothing by waiting.

I appreciate your concern mate but I think I have to trade this week. I've got McDonough, Wanganeen and I've got a really bad feeling that the deer in the headlights (McDonald) are all gonna miss this week. I think best case scenario McDonald is the sub and unless he can produce a mammoth quarter like Leigh Adams did he might find himself wearing the vest on a regular basis. I think if I don't trade this week 2 trades next week might not be enough.

[js19]

Trade if you need to!

What if two premos went down with LTI's next week, and you miss points and/or rookies on the bubble.

It's a game of what ifs. If we knew, we wouldn't speculate, but there's no right or wrong until you look at it all in hindsight