Dmac's Brownlow Count 2014

[dmac07]

The past two years I have done brownlow counts, and especially last year was quite successful with my predictions and made a tidy little profit on the side as well in overall and team leading vote getters. This year I though I would put the ongoing count on fanfooty, and at times ask for some opinions on games I miss. Ill try an update this at least once a week and keep the leaderboard on the first post.

I base my votes on watching the game to see who has the biggest effect, Ill also check that against the stats but try not to let the stats change the decision unless there is a huge difference between the stats and my perception, will look at media reports and highlights of games I dont see and ask people who did see them. I also look at polling hisotry, which comes in handy to seperate players who played games of a similar level, I.e Judd ahead Armfield, or Swan ahead of Blair if the players considered were equally effective on the day. Last year I managed to pick the top 3  (wrong order unfortunately), and top vote getter at 13-14 clubs.

Final Votes
24
G.Ablett, J.Selwood, S.Pendlebury, N.Fyfe
23
22
21
R.Gray, J.Lewis
20
M.Priddis, JP.Kennedy
19
18
M.Barlow, T.Rockliff, S.Johnson, T.Boak, L.Franklin
17
16
T.Cotchin
15
R.Sloane, P.Dangerfield, D Prestia, L.Parker
14
D.Beams, N.Jones, B.Harvey, B.Deledio
13
B.Goddard, D.Mundy
12
P.Hanley, H.Bartlett, T.Liberatore
11
B.Gibbs, M.Murphy, D.Heppell, J.Watson, J.Bartel, B.Cunnington, N.Dal Santo, D.Hanneberry, JJ.Kennedy, M.LeCras, L.Shuey
10
B.Smith, S.Thompson (ade), D.Zorko, D.Zaharakis, C.Ward, J.Roughead, M.Boyd

[dmac07]

RND1
Coll 46 vs Freo 116
3. M.Barlow 2. A.Sandilands 1. N.Fyfe
GWS 99  vs Syd 67
3. C.Ward 2. S.Coniglio 1. A.Treloar
GC 87 vs Rich 69
3. G.Ablett 2. D. Prestia 1. B.Deledio
Carl 87 vs P.A 120
3. O. Wines 2. J.Westhoff 1. K.Cornes
Geel 119 vs Ade 81
3. J.Selwood 2. J.Bartel 1. S.Johnson
NM 60 vs Ess 99
3. J.Watson 2. B.Goddard 1. P.Chapman
Haw 139 vs Bris 81
3. L.Bruest 2. L.Shiels 1. D.Zorko
StK 68 vs Melb 51
3. C.Jones 2. N.Jones 1. N.Riewoldt
WC 134 vs WB 69
3. M.LeCras 2. M.Rosa 1. M.Priddis

Rnd 2
Rich 98 vs Carl 86
3. M.Murphy 2.D.Martin 1.C.Yarran
Ess 86 vs Haw 90
3. S.Burgoyne 2. J.Watson (5) 1. B.Hill
StK 95 vs GWS 88
3. N.Riewoldt (4) 2. S.Mumford 1. L.Montagna
PA 128 vs Ade 73
3. H.Hartlett 2. B.Ebert 1. C.Wingard
Syd 69 vs Coll 89
3. S.Pendlebury 2. D.Beams 1. H.Lumumba
Freo 87 vs GC 39
3. A.Sandilands (5) 2. M.Barlow (5) 1. D.Mundy
Bris 68 vs Geel 93
3. S.Johnson (4) 2. D.Zorko (3) 1. J.Selwood (4)
Melb 30 vs WC 123
3. L.Shuey 2. C.Masten 1. M.Priddis (2)
WB 54 vs NM 83
3. B.Harvey 2. N.Dal Santo 1. R.Murphy

Round 3
Haw 137 vs Freo 79
3. I.Smith 2. B.Hill (3) 1. S.Mitchell
WB 100 vs Rich 98
3. T.Liberatore 2. J.Macrae 1. T.Cotchin
Ade 71 vs Syd 134
3. L.Parker 2. L.Franklin 1. K.Jack
GC 114 vs Bris 61
3. G.Ablett (6) 2. D.Prestia (4) 1. T.Rockliff
Coll 76 vs Geel 87
3. J.Selwood (7) 2.S.Sidebottom 1. M.Duncan
WC 83 vs StK 58
3. M.Priddis (5) 2. L.Dunstan 1. D.Cox
GWS 79 vs Melb 47
3. A.Treloar (4) 2. C.Ward (5) 1. S.Mumford (3)
NM 97 vs PA 90
3. N.Dal Santo (5) 2. L.Greenwood 1. B.Harvey (4)
Ess 138 vs Carl 57
3. P.Chapman (4) 2. D.Heppell 1. J.Merrett

Round 4

Rich 72 vs Coll 110
3. S.Pendlebury (6) 2. D.Beams (4) 1. D.Swan
Carl 58 vs Melb 81
3. N.Jones (5) 2. J.Frawley 1. K.Simpson
P.A 159 vs Bris 46
3. T.Boak 2. B.Ebert (4) 1. M.White
GWS 83 vs WB 110
3. M.Boyd 2. S.Higgins 1. J.Macrae (3)
GC 49 vs Haw 148
3. S.Mitchell (4) 2. J.Gunston 1. M.Suckling
Geel 107 vs WC 32
3. M.Stokes 2. J.Selwood (9) 1. S.Johnson (5)
Syd 48 vs NM 91
3. B.Cunnington 2. S.Thompson 1. D.Wells
Stk 50 vs Ade 136
3. R.Sloane 2. S.Thompson 1. D.Wells
Fre 113 vs Ess 60
3. M.Pavlich 2. L.Mcpharlin 1. M.Johnson

Round 5
Bris 63 vs Rich 106
3. T.Cotchin (4) 2. J.Riewoldt 1. R.Petterd
Coll 93 vs NM58
3. D.Swan (4) 2. S.Sidebottom (4) 1. S.Pendlebury (7)
Syd 92 vs Fre 75
3.J.P.Kennedy 2.D.Mundy (3) 1. B.McGlynn
Ess 65 vs StK 81
3. L.Montagna (4) 2. N.Riewoldt (6) 1. L.Hayes
WC 56 vs PA 70
3. R.Gray 2. B.Ebert (6) 1. C.Masten (3)
Ade 137 vs GWS 72
3. P.Dangerfield 2. S.Thompson (4) 1. M.Jaensch
Melb 78 vs GC 86
3. G.Ablett (9) 2. N.Jones 1. M.Rischitelli
WB 91 vc Carl 119
3. M.Murphy (6) 2. B.Gibbs 1. L.Dalhaus
Geel 106 vs Haw 87
3.S.Johnson - 8 2. T.Hawkins 1. M.Duncan (2)

Round 6
Coll 83 vs Ess 60
3. D.Swan (7) 2. S.Pendlebury (9) 1. S.Sidebottom (5)
Stk 79 vs Bris 82
3. L.Montagna (7) 2. D.Zorko (5) 1. J.Redden
Fre 61 vs NM 74
3. N.Fyfe (4) 2. N.Dal Santo (7) 1. B.Harvey (5)
GC 134 vs GWS 94
3. G.Ablett (12) 2. D.Prestia (6) 1. T.Lynch
Carl 92 vs WC 89
3. M.Murphy (9) 2. M.Priddis (7) 1. L.Shuey (4)
Melb 38 vs Syd 69
3. D.Hanneberry 2. R.Shaw 1. N.Jones -8
WB 83 vs Ade 92
3. P.Dangerfield (6) 2. M.Boyd (5) 1. T.Lynch
Rich 52 vs Haw 118
3. S.Mitchell (7) 2. L.Hodge 1. C.Rioli
P.A 107 vs Geel 67
3. T.Boak (6) 2. H.Hartlett 1. B.Ebert (7)

Round 7
Carl 70 vs Coll 104
3. J.Elliot 2. D.Beams (6) 1. S.Pendlebury (10)
Haw 175 vs StK 30
3. S.Burgoyne (6)  2. L.Bruest (5) 1.L.Hodge (3)
GWS 97 vs PA 132
3. J.Polec 2. C.Ward (7) 1. R.Gray (4)
Ade 67 vs Melb70
3. B.Vince 2. B.Smith 1. C.Dawes
Ess 73 vs WB 65
3. L.Dalhaus (4) 2. B.Goddard (4) 1. T.Liberatore (4)
Bris 44 vs Syd 123
3. JP.Kennedy (6) 2. J.McVeigh 1.K.Jack (2)
NM 77 vs GC 120
3. G.Ablett (15) 2. T.Lynch (3) 1. D.Prestia (7)
Geel 81 vs Rich 76
3. S.Johnson (11) 2. J.Bartel (4) 1. D.Jackson
WC 54 vs Fre 73
3. L.Neale 2. N.Fyfe (6) 1. A.Sandilands (6)

Round 8

Syd 107 vs Haw 88
3. D.Hannebery (6) 2. J.McVeigh (4) 1. JP.Kennedy (7)
PA 94 vs Fre 76
3. R.Gray (7) 2. N.Fyfe - 8 1. C.Wingard (2)
Bris 57 vs Ess 65
3. J.Watson -8 2. T.Rockliff (3) 1. B.Goddard (5)
Melb 83 vs WB 99
3. T.Liberatore (7) 2. R.Griffen (2) 1. 1. D.Tyson (1)
WC 188 vs GWS 77
3. JJ.Kennedy (3) 2. M.LeCras (5) 1. M.Priddis -8
StK 69 vs Carl 101
3. C.Yarran (4) 2. B.Gibbs (4) 1. K.Simpson (2)

Round 9

Ade 76 vs Coll 55
3. P.Dangerfield (9) 2. S.Pendlebury (12) 1. J.Jenkins (1)
Ess 64 vs Syd 114
3. JP.Kennedy (10) 2. C.Bird (2) 1. L.Franklin (3)
Rich 74 vs Melbourne 91
3. N.Jones (11) 2. D.Tyson (2) 1. D.Martin (3)
NM 125 vs Bris 38
3. B.Harvey -8 2. S.Gibson 1. N.Dal Santo -8
Fre 96 vs Gee 64
3. D.Mundy (6) 2. N.Fyfe (10) 1. J.Selwood (10)
StK 87 vs GC 125
3. G.Ablett (18) 2. J.Omeara (2) 1. B.Matera (1)

Round 10
Gee 111 vs NM 91
3. J.Bartel (7) 2. J.Kelly (2) 1. T.Hawkins (3)
GWS 41 vs Rich 154
3. J.Riewoldt (5) 2. D.Martin (5) 1.B.Ellis (1)
Coll 109 vs WC 101
3. S.Pendlebury (15) 2.M.Priddis (10) 1. D.Beams (7)
PA 100 vs Haw 86
3. T.Boak (9) 2. J.Lewis (2) 1.J.Polec (4)
GC 119 vs WB 74
3. D.Prestia (10) 2. M.Shaw (2) 1. J.Harbrow (1)
Carl vs Ade
3. K.Simpson (5) 2. A.Everitt (2) 1. S.Jacobs (1)

Round 11
Syd 148 vs Geel 38
3. N.Malceski (3) 2. JP.Kennedy (12) 1.C.Bird (3)
StK 54 vs Coll 140
3. D.Beams (10) 2. C.Young (2) 1. S.Pendlebury (16)
Melb 75 vs PA 95
3. R.Gray (10) 2. J.Westhoff (4) 1. T.Boak (10)
Bris 98 vs Carl 91
3. T.Rockliff (6) 2.M.Murphy (11) 1. D Zorko (6)
Ess 104 vs Rich 54
3. B.Howlett (3) 2. J.Watson (10) 1. B.Goddard (6)
Ade 109 vs GC 77
3. D.Swallow (3) 2. T.Walker (2) 1.B.Smith (3)
WB 51 vs Freo 89
3. S.Hill (3) 2. M.Barlow (7) 1. T.Liberatore -8
Haw 94 vs GWS 87
3. I.Smith (6) 2.D.Smith (2) 1. L.Whitfield (1)
WC 44 vs NM 82
3. B.Cunnington (6) 2. N.Dal Santo (10) 1. M.Priddis (11)

Round 12
Geel 107 vs Carl 102
3. B.Gibbs (7) 2. M.Stokes (5) 1. T.Hawkins (4)
Haw 123 vs WC 79
3. J.Roughead (3) 2. L.Hodge (5) 1.J.Lewis(3)
PA 129 vs StK 59
3. H.Hartlett -8 2. R.Gray (12) 1. C.Wingard (3)
GWS 66 vs Ess 81
3. D.Zaharakis (3) 2. A.Treloar (6) 1. H.Shaw (1)
WB 87 vs Bris 95
3. J.Redden (4) 2. J.Macrae (3) 2. P.Hanley (1)
GC 74 vs Syd 109
3. D.Hanneberry (9) 2. G.Ablett (20) 1. JP.Kennedy (13)
Fre 90 vs Ade 50
3. A.Sandilands (9) 2. M.Barlow (9) 1. P.Duffield (1)
Mekb 28 vs Coll 61
3. C.Young (5) 2. N.Jones (13) 1. S.Pendlebury (17)

Round 13

Carl 90 vs Haw 118
3. C.Rioli (4) 2. B.Gibbs (9) 1.B.Sewell (1)
Rich 85 vs Fre 105
3. N.Fyfe (13) 2. H.Ballantyne (2) 1.D.Mundy (7)
Syd 98 vs PA 94
3. L.Franklin (6) 2. B.Ebert (9) 1. R.Gray (13)
WC 103 vs GC 100
3. J.Kennedy (6) 2. S.Hurn (2) 1. D.Prestia (11)
Bris 80 vs GWS 125
3. A.Treloar (9) 2. C.Ward (7) 1. D.Shiel (1)
Ade 109 vs NM 73
3. R.Sloane (6) 2.B.Smith (5) 1. S.Thompson (5)
Geel 133 vs St.K 37
3. J.Bartel (10) 2. M.Stokes (7) 1. M.Duncan (3)
Coll 98 vs WB 106
3. T.Liberatore (11) 2. R.Griffen (4) 1. S.Pendlebury (18)
Ess 77 vs Melb 78
3. D.Zaharakis (6) 2. L.Dunn (2) 1. B.Goddard (6)

Round 14
Rich 51 vs Syd 62
3. L.Franklin (9) 2. D.Martin (8) 1. J.Kennedy (14)
PA 128 vs WB 56
3. J.Schulz (3) 2. T.Boak (12) 1. J.Westhoff (5)
Haw 115 vs Coll 86
3. L.Bruest (7) 2. B.Sewell (3) 1. S.Pendlebury (19)
GC 118 vs Geel 78
3. H.Bennell (3) 2. G.Ablett (22) 1. D.Prestia (12)
Ess 101 vs Ade 92
3. B.Goddard (10) 2. S.Thompson (7) 1. M.Hibberd (7)
Fre 105 vs Bris 22
3. N.Fyfe (16) 2. M.Barlow (11) 1. T.Rockliff (7)
GWS vs Carl
3. S.Mumford (6) 2. C.Ward (9) 1. M.Robinson (1)
StK 70 vs WC 103
3.M.Rosa (5) 2. M.Priddis (13) 1. J.Billings (1)
Melb 66 vs NM 107
3.B.Vince (6) 2. L.Greenwood (4) 1. B.Harvey (11)

Round 15
Carl 89 vs Ess 80
3. D.Heppel (5) 2. J.Selwood (12) 1. M.Duncan (4)
Haw 116 vs GC 63
3. J.Lewis (6) 2. G.Ablett (24) 1. L.Hodge (6)
Stk 73 vs Rich 117
3. T.Cotchin (7) 2. B.Ellis (3) 1. B.Deledio (1)
Fre 88 vs WC 81
3. S.Hill (6) 2. N.Fyfe (18) 1. M.LeCras (6)
Bris 70 vs NM 66
3. P.Hanley (4) 2. J.Aish (2) 1. T.Rockliff (8
Syd 106 vs GWS 60
3. L.Franklin (12) 2.JP.Kennedy (16) 1. K.Jack (3)
WB 91 vs Melb 85
3. M.Boyd (8 2. J.Howe (2) 1. L.Dalhaus (5)
Ade 99 vs PA 76
3. S.Jacobs (4) 2. S.Thompson (9) 1. P.Dangerfield (10)
Call 91 vs Carl 76
3. S.Sidebottom (8 2. S.Pendlebury (21) 1. C.Yarran (5)

Round 16

[RaisyDaisy]

Nice one dmac

Ever since I picked Bartel to win it in 2007 I have since picked the winner every year, except Cooney (LOL surely nobody picked that!) and Judd (Thought Swan was stiffed)

I put $200 on Bartel back then at $8.50, and since then I've loaded up on Ablett both years he won, Swan the year he won and Jobe too, so I will be keeping my eye on this thread throughout the year :) because the Brownlow is the only sports betting I do each year, so I tend to put some decent bets on

Just reading that, it sounds like I'm bragging lol, but I am not, just happy that I do well with Brownlow betting as it's the only sports betting I do all year, and makes the Brownlow exciting to watch :)

[dmac07]

Nice one dmac

Ever since I picked Bartel to win it in 2007 I have since picked the winner every year, except Cooney (LOL surely nobody picked that!) and Judd (Thought Swan was stiffed)

I put $200 on Bartel back then at $8.50, and since then I've loaded up on Ablett both years he won, Swan the year he won and Jobe too, so I will be keeping my eye on this thread throughout the year :) because the Brownlow is the only sports betting I do each year, so I tend to put some decent bets on

Just reading that, it sounds like I'm bragging lol, but I am not, just happy that I do well with Brownlow betting as it's the only sports betting I do all year, and makes the Brownlow exciting to watch :)

Cheers RD, will be seeking feedback on some games so will let you know. Agree Swan was robbed the year Judd won his second, Swan was unbackable to win by 5+ votes that year, I had no clue with Cooney either.

[Doggoneit]

Interesting to see your thoughts on Judd and Swan

My mate is Pies supporter and we both agree that Judd and Swan won each others Brownlows

I'll be watching your scoring with interest.

one question - did you correctly get Jason Blakes first votes ?

[kilbluff1985]

one question - did you correctly get Jason Blakes first votes ?

yeah that was his really good game vs GC in 2012

i told my sister to bet on him getting votes was pretty safe

[RaisyDaisy]

Votes for last night's game IMO

3 Ablett
2 Prestia
1 Swallow

A chance that Deledio or Cotchin could snatch the 1, but I would go with the 3 above

And dog, I agree they both won each others Brownlow's

[dmac07]

Votes for last night's game IMO

3 Ablett
2 Prestia
1 Swallow

A chance that Deledio or Cotchin could snatch the 1, but I would go with the 3 above

And dog, I agree they both won each others Brownlow's

I went with ablett, prestia, who I think were pretty clear picks, went with deledio for the 1, swallow very good but not great influence early, and it wasnt a big win so feel confident deledio/cotchin will get the 1, went with deledio, cotchin had a lot of the ball but butchered it at times so delefio gets my nod.

Also agree swan/judd won each others brownlows

[Ziplock]

RND1

Coll 46 vs Freo 116
3. M.Barlow 2. A.Sandilands 1. N.Fyfe

GWS vs Syd
3. C.Ward 2. S.Coniglio 1. A.Treloar

GC vs Rich

Carl vs P.A

Mumford might sneak in there :/ it was a hard game to pick- there were several guys who could have gotten votes... The only real certainty for me was ward for 3 :p

[GoLions]

RND1

Coll 46 vs Freo 116
3. M.Barlow 2. A.Sandilands 1. N.Fyfe

GWS 99  vs Syd 67
3. C.Ward 2. S.Coniglio 1. A.Treloar

GC 87 vs Rich 69
3. G.Ablett 2. D. Prestia 1. B.Deledio

Carl vs P.A

As good as Fyfe was, I wouldn't be surprised if possibly Mundy got the 1 vote simply because Fyfe was subbed.
Agree with the GWS vs Swans game, although Treloar/Coniglio could go either way with who gets 2.
IMO Prestia may actually get the 3 votes here, thought he was outstanding. Swallow vs Lids for the 1 vote, if Swallow kicked straighter he definitely would've been a lock for at least a vote. Tough call there.

[Ringo]

I agree with GL here and would give Prestia the 3 votes Ablett 2 and Swallow/delidio 1. based on the fact that Prestia had a 75% DE compared to Abletts 65.9%

[RaisyDaisy]

I agree with GL here and would give Prestia the 3 votes Ablett 2 and Swallow/delidio 1. based on the fact that Prestia had a 75% DE compared to Abletts 65.9%

Umpires don't look at stats though - I think that 2nd Ablett goal will get him the 3, but yeah its a line ball call

[Ziplock]

I agree with GL here and would give Prestia the 3 votes Ablett 2 and Swallow/delidio 1. based on the fact that Prestia had a 75% DE compared to Abletts 65.9%

Umpires don't look at stats though - I think that 2nd Ablett goal will get him the 3, but yeah its a line ball call

I'm pretty sure the umps do have a look at the stat sheet, specifically for that reason.

[BB67th]

I agree with GL here and would give Prestia the 3 votes Ablett 2 and Swallow/delidio 1. based on the fact that Prestia had a 75% DE compared to Abletts 65.9%

Umpires don't look at stats though - I think that 2nd Ablett goal will get him the 3, but yeah its a line ball call

I'm pretty sure the umps do have a look at the stat sheet, specifically for that reason.

I saw a thing on what umpires do on gameday once. They're not allowed to look at the stats sheet before they do the votes.

[RaisyDaisy]

I saw a thing on what umpires do on gameday once. They're not allowed to look at the stats sheet before they do the votes.

Exactly what I thought

Pretty sure they go straight into a room and put their votes in. Looking at stats would persuade their decision, and they get the votes on what the umpires saw