Dmac's Brownlow Count 2014

[kilbluff1985]

Mitchell will get votes over Breust imo umps love him

[Toga]

I woulda thought:
3. Smith
2. Mitchell
1. Breust

[Noz]

3. Smith
2. Lewis
1. Hill

[dmac07]

Went somewhere in between all you guys, think Smith was a clear best. Next two were difficult, thought Hill had a lot of influence, mitchell for the 1 as umps do love him and he would have been noticed, even though he was quiet early.

[Nige]

3 votes L.Breust.  ;)

[Doggoneit]

Agree that Smith gets the 3

the 2 and 1 is a lottery between a bunch of them. Mitchell, Hill, Suckers, Rioli, Bruest or even Shiels who was probably the best in the first half when they set up the win.

[GoLions]

Yeah Mitchell will get a vote or 2 simply because the umps love him, just like Swan. Smith should get the 3, think Breust will pick up a vote as well

I woulda thought:
3. Smith
2. Mitchell
1. Breust

This

[dmac07]

Updated through Saturday games.

[RaisyDaisy]

Great to see you haven't let this slip and have been updating it. Well done dmac

Put G Ablett down for another 3 today

[AaronKirk]

Ablett for another 3 today.

I've got him now on 14 votes, Stevie J on 13 (BOG today) and daylight to the rest (lead by Murph and Jelwood on 9).

[dmac07]

Great to see you haven't let this slip and have been updating it. Well done dmac

Put G Ablett down for another 3 today

Round 7 votes and a bit of a wrap will be up today.

Didnt have Ablett bog coming into the last qtr, and thought his golas were after the game was over. But there werent any other standout players so he probably has to get the votes

[Noz]

Great to see you haven't let this slip and have been updating it. Well done dmac

Put G Ablett down for another 3 today

Round 7 votes and a bit of a wrap will be up today.

Didnt have Ablett bog coming into the last qtr, and thought his golas were after the game was over. But there werent any other standout players so he probably has to get the votes

In my opinion
3. Ablett
2. Lynch
1. Hansen

[dmac07]

Leaderboard at Round 7

15 - G.Ablett
11 - S.Johnson
10 - S.Pendlebury
9 - J.Selwood, M.Murphy
8 - N.Jones
7 - D.Swan, L.Montagna, N.Dal Santo, M. Priddis, S.Mitchell,  B.Ebert, C.Ward, D.Prestia
6 - N.Riewoldt, P.Dangerfield, T.Boak, D.Beams, S.Burgoyne, JP.Kennedy, A.Sandilands, N.Fyfe
5 - J.Watson, M.Barlow, S.Sidebottom, D.Zorko, B.Harvey, M.Boyd, L.Bruest
4 -A.Treloar, P.Chapman, T.Cotchin, S.Thompson (Ade), L.Shuey, R.Gray, L.Dalhaus, B.Goddard, T.Liberatore, J.Bartel


One hand on the medal?

G.Ablett 15 votes ($2.75)
With three certain BOGs, and another two likely, where he will get a minimum of two votes, I have Ablett a clear leader already with 15 votes from 7 rounds. Gold Coast are flying at 5-2, and even though I would expect a slight drop off, they won't get many of those hammerings by a 100 points that will preclude Ablett from picking up plenty more votes even if their form does turn. Would seem only injury and derail his current run.

Main Chanllengers

S.Johnson 11 votes ($8)
S.Pendlebury 10 votes ($9)
J.Selwood 9 votes ($11)

It would appear at this stage, that the above players present the main channelnge to Ablett taking home a third medal. The two cats and a pie midfielder are both close enough, having polled 9-11 votes each already. They all also are proven votegetters and match winners, some of the best players in the competition with the ability to dominate games string together three vote games. All of them also play for current and likely top 4-6 sides, meaning plenty more wins and vote getting oppurtunites.


The Outside Chances

M.Murphy 9 votes ($26)
D.Swan 7 votes ($16)
B.Ebert 7 votes ($67)
T.Boak 6 votes ($34)
P.Dangerfield 6 votes ($13)
D.Beams 6 votes ($18)
JP.Keneddy 6 votes ($21)
J.Watson 5 votes ($21)

A handful of outside chances, some proven vote winners, such as previos winners Watson and Swan, others up and comers, like Dangerfield and Boak. Swan and Watson are always dangerous, both can dominate games, and recently Swan has started to return to form with two best on ground performances after a slow start to the year. Murphy sits not far of the pace with nine votes following two BOG displays in Carlton's recent wins. Dangerfield has the capabilities of being a future medalist, can still be a bit up and down, as is the whole Adelaide team, but his best delivers clear three vote games. Beams and Kennedy both go somewhat underapreciated at times in star midfields, but both gather huge numbers and can kick a goal, likely to have to share a lot of votes which hurts their chances. The Port Adelaide pair, Boak and Ebert are perhaps the biggest unknowns of this group. With the power sitting 6-1 near the top of the ladder there are plenty of votes to go around, these votes are likely to be shared between these two guys, along with the likes of Gray, Wines, Westhoff, Polec in an even team display, there is however the potential for someone to string together a large number of votes in a team looking like winning so many games, so keep an eye on these two, especially Ebert at $67 who I currently have sitting on 7 votes already.


Keep an eye on

N.Jones 8 votes ($51)
N.Dal Santo 7 votes ($41)
C.Ward 7 votes ($51)
D.Prestia 7 votes ($151)
S.Burgoyne 6 votes ($67)
T.Cothcin 4 votes ($16)

A few to keep a watch one as the season progress. N.Jones is dominating for Melbourne right now, and sits near the top of the leaderboard with 8 votes. You could assume Melbourne won't win too many games this year, but if they put in a lot of close performances his vote tally could keep rising. Dal Santo is a previous top 3 finisher in the brownlow and is re-invigorated at a new club winning plenty of games, likely leading vote getter at the Knagaroos right now. Ward is in a similar boat to Jones, wouldn't expect anyone from a team likely to win so few games at the top of the leaderboard, but keep an eye on. Prestia, living in the shadows of Ablett, but over the odds compared to others on this list at a huge 150-1! Breaking out into a bonafide star himself, would be a clear second in the votes at GC right now, and there a lot more votes to go around now they are winning games. Burgoyne seems to be enjoying some almost career best footy right now, having two great BOG performances in the past month. With plenty of votes on offer at Hawthorn, and Mitchell now likely to miss 8 weeks, could start stock piling some serious votes. Cotchin seems incredibly under the odds ($16) considering Richmond's and his start to the year, but if they can turn it around he is god enough to get plenty of votes.

Draw a line through them

Mitchell 7 votes - likely to miss 8 weeks or more with a bad hamstring injury.
Fyfe - 6 votes - could poll several more votes, but, rightly or wrongly, is ineligable.

[RaisyDaisy]

Fantastic dmac!

Really hoping Ablett gets another one

[dmac07]

Round 8 votes up. More votes to high vote getters such as JPK, Fyfe, Watson, Gray of Port Adealiade also continuing to poll.