Beams 136 or Ablett?

[frogjumper]

Yes Ablett may score more, but id always prefer to have a captain score locked in at 125+ every day of the week.

The only way I wouldn't take this is if my opponent in main league had Ablett as captain to offset the risk or I needed more points for the win.

[Spite]

Ablett
2013 Avg
128.86

Thats what makes it so hard

[KoopKicka]

Lock it in Eddie!

[devize]

You stand to gain 14 point if Ablett scores 150. Why risk it? He could get injured and score 10 points. Lock it in and get the points on the board.

[quinny88]

Everyone talking about loopholes means there are alot of people out there happy to pick rookies that arent playing.. very dangerous move. only place i can see this being a possibility is in the ruck but if there are 2 rookies named ill take them. Cash generation is more important

[GoLions]

Everyone talking about loopholes means there are alot of people out there happy to pick rookies that arent playing.. very dangerous move. only place i can see this being a possibility is in the ruck but if there are 2 rookies named ill take them. Cash generation is more important

What 2 ruck rookies do you have playing this week? I would love to know :)

[quinny88]

Everyone talking about loopholes means there are alot of people out there happy to pick rookies that arent playing.. very dangerous move. only place i can see this being a possibility is in the ruck but if there are 2 rookies named ill take them. Cash generation is more important

What 2 ruck rookies do you have playing this week? I would love to know :)

Lol I just said the only place it is a possibility to do is the ruck...
But if there are 2 ruckman named then I will take them rather than deliberatley picking one thats not just for the sake of a loophole

[Grufflez]

Rookie rucks are shyt,got Thurlow for DPP & King for loop hole...had VC on Sandilands and a 127 is respectable :) but i doubt gaz will go lower than 115-120 and he could go 150..might roll the dice..anyone else have Langdons 111 on the bench..ffs

[Ricochet]

Be greedy, stay with GAJ  ;D

[GoLions]

Everyone talking about loopholes means there are alot of people out there happy to pick rookies that arent playing.. very dangerous move. only place i can see this being a possibility is in the ruck but if there are 2 rookies named ill take them. Cash generation is more important

What 2 ruck rookies do you have playing this week? I would love to know :)

Lol I just said the only place it is a possibility to do is the ruck...
But if there are 2 ruckman named then I will take them rather than deliberatley picking one thats not just for the sake of a loophole

shower my bad, missed that. Getting a tad tired right now haha :P
I would assume though that most people will be loopholing rucks though with guys like Goldy, NicNat, Leuey, Cox, Minson all playing in the 2nd week, so they haven't been locked in yet

[Marstar]

Maybe i can help.

Usually the chances of a player getting a score above their average is less than 50%.

Last year GAJ got these scores:

164, 90, 97, 67, 100, 116, 178, 120, 115, 147, 153, 129, 149, 112, 152, 137, 160, 131, 112, 178.

11 under 136
9 over 136

Scores against Richmond over the last 3 years:

120, 133, 127.

I don't have his Metricon Stadium Average, but unless you believe he generally scores 10ppg more playing at home then i'd dare say you are still flipping a coin rigged slight against you.

Conclusion:

If you want to play is safe, then lock Beams in.

If you like to play Black/Red on a Roulette table then you might win tomorrow ... but in the long run you will lose. If you lose, chances are you won't recover those losses making the same bet over and over.

[Ricochet]

GAJ's scored on the GC last year

178
112
131
137
112
153
115
178
116
67
164

A 133ave but that 67 was when he was pretty much raped by Melbourne.

Also those Richmond scores were when Dan Jackson went to him. He isn't playing tomorrow   

[Dazzalenko]

@Devize: that's 14 x 2 cause of his captaincy.

have the V on Sandi but will be sticking with GAJ for a huge one

[GoLions]

@Devize: that's 14 x 2 cause of his captaincy.

have the V on Sandi but will be sticking with GAJ for a huge one

No, it's just 14 points. Let me explain it for you:

Ablett (150x2=300) + Beams (136) = 436

Ablett (150) + Beams (136x2=272) = 422

[Dazzalenko]

sorry i'm already picturing gaj's score as 164 ;D